Riverbrian

Great Post The best way to cool off a hot streak is to bench the hot streak. I'm not saying that Larnach had hot streaks (I'm sure he did) and I'm certainly not implying that Trevor Larnach didn't get opportunities against left handed hitters this year. I am saying that generally... Benching a hot hitter is benching a significant short term advantage in favor of strict adherence to the platoon that produces a slighter short term advantage. Is the left handed hitter hot right now? It doesn't matter... He's left handed therefore his hotness isn't a factor. The left handedness is the only factor that matters. It's a dial and not a light switch... it stands to reason that if a hitter is seeing the ball well and his swing is locked in... he will not only hit better against right handers at that moment but also against left handed hitters at that moment... if the manager doesn't allow him to left handers when he is playing his best baseball... you are left with a small sample baked in lower numbers that everybody points at and says... See... he can't hit lefties. It says so right here over these 20 AB's he got.

I've posted a lot on the subject. I've talked at length about the use of the platoon and the damage it does in regards to development. This isn't just a Larnach topic... the Twins comprehensively took every developing left handed bat they had and refused to expose them to left handed pitchers... every single one. Therefore compromising their development and that leads to compromised value. Do you want to trade him to aid in this rebuild. OK... but... you capped his trade value and did so on purpose for potential short term gains. The platoon advantage numbers can't be denied. They are real... however that platoon advantage exists on the other side of the coin as well. Left handed hitters also have a platoon advantage against right handed pitchers. This platoon advantage isn't really a focus when they are signing right handed handcuffs to protect the other LESS FREQUENT platoon advantage of avoiding left handers vs left handers. I have been saying over and over again. By playing the split right... they are playing it wrong. Play the 75%... not the 25%. Here are the 2025 league wide numbers that I grabbed back in July. LHH vs RHP: .744 (Platoon Advantage .041 75% of the time) RHH vs LHP: .709 (Neutral) RHH vs RHP: .703 (Neutral) LHH vs LHP: .656 (Platoon Advantage .053 25% of the time) Just dealing with the averages as they are and ignoring individual talent and individual talent is really the most important thing. Just dealing with the averages as they are. An overstaffed right handed lineup is basically neutral against left or right handed pitchers. An overstaffed left handed lineup produces a platoon advantage three times to every one time that it provides a disadvantage. 3 times the advantage over the neutral right hander compared to a 1 time disadvantage over the neutral right hander. They have been playing the split wrong and compromising development by doing so. 3 times to 1 time is also a platoon advantage that works synergistically with the .744 platoon advantage. 1 time to 3 times is a platoon disadvantage that works with the .656. Yet... they go out and search for that right handed handcuff to avoid that 1 time... ignoring the 3 times and everyone is talking about Trevor Larnach today like he's the problem. Larnach, Wallner, Kirilloff and Julien lost two years of experience, exposure, development, the chance to get better at it. The chance to grow during years where growth is critical. I've been asking for this to stop for awhile now. As I asked for it repeatedly... I knew that if it was ever granted... the OPS was going to come down as a result. After being held back for two years... Trevor Larnach's overall OPS was going to go down when left handed pitchers are added to the mix. You astutely point that out. You are correct in pointing that out. Nearly every left handed hitter that faces left handed pitching is going to take a hit to the overall number. Yet... the 75% platoon advantage remains. Not only is Trevor one of the few major league hitters on this current roster. He is also left handed and therefore equipped to play the platoon split the way it should be played. His left handed presence in the lineup should be joined by more left handed hitters. More left handed hitters will make it much harder if not impossible to compromise the next group of left hander hitters coming through the system because the right handed Garlick has no room on the roster to steal development opportunity. Can't platoon if you don't have enough right handed cover. I'll stop short of saying that we owe Trevor because of the strip mining of his parts. I'll just say... that Trevor is one of the few major league hitters on this roster. We have a lot of non major league hitters on the 40 man roster that need to go first.

The beast must be fed. We the beast are not happy and we must be fed greater and larger doses of unhappiness. It's not enough that payroll is potentially 90m... let's take it down to 50. It's not enough to be cold... let's make it colder. It's what the beast feeds on. Cody Christie is feeding the beast with a new article asking if the Twins are becoming the Pirates. Never mind that the Twins have spent somewhere around 500 million more than the Pirates since Covid. On Royce to the Angels... It would be nice for Royce. It would be wrong for us. You would have to believe that he can't be fixed. You'd have to believe that the fundamentals are not good. You sell this stock at a low point because you believe it could go lower. Just placing him on the trade block would make any trading partner suspicious... Why are you trading him now?

There are multiple paths back. Some longer than others but there are multiple paths. Speed is a game changer and it's a clear weapon in today's game, sometimes you just need to create runs. Besides being a game changer... it just makes baseball more interesting for the viewer. Look everyone... they are utilizing all of the parts of the game of baseball. I know Larnach isn't one of the fastest players on the team but I'll say this: The entire team (including Larnach) sure look different in regards to being aggressive base runners. After Rocco made that announcement.

I called the front office and offered my services. You know... To be the... umm... leader of the committee to select a major league manager group assembly panel. I exceeded the legal duration of voice mail length and never got to finish my thoughts.

There are a lot of people on this site that I respect who disagree with me on this and it's OK... You are one of the respected. I appreciate you at least acknowledging the argument. There is an argument to be made in that regard. I'd say the argument is for 3rd best hitter on the team. Or 4th. But... Larnach is one of a small group of remaining major league bats on this current roster. Buxton and Keaschall were clearly 1 and 2 but after that? Jeffers is probably #3 but Wallner and Larnach are in that ball park and it could be argued for all of them. When people start talking about removing one of the small, tiny group of major league hitters. They are talking about removing one of the few. With miles of roster space below him that has to be addressed.

Great post. There are a few exceptions but there are typically significant platoon splits with most left handed hitters vs left handed pitching across the league. There are a few exceptions but there are typically significant platoon splits with all left handed hitters vs right handed pitching. 75% of pitching is right handed. Which way should we play the platoon split advantage? I vote for playing the advantage against the 75%. Others may feel differently.

If Ryan, Lopez, Buxton, Lewis and Jeffers all quit baseball and joined the circus. This is what the roster would look like. That would leave the same impression on your readers with this 50 million payroll exercise. I'll continue to assume that we will get players back in these 5 trades.

Freaking Nuance Everywhere. 😄

4.5 Consonants? 1.5 Vowels?

Off the top of my head... Yes my head is crazy though.

It's something I'm practicing. I'm trying to use as many 6 letter words with only one vowel as I can. It's hard to be strict and string them together but there are plenty of them, maybe twenty or thirty. I don't want to stress over things going on with the Twins system. Just for a wrench in my writng.

Skubal is merely an example of a pitcher that didn't have the smoothest beginning. He was mentioned to serve as an example of why it's better to have a young returning pitcher produce Bundy-Esque numbers compared to Dylan Bundy producing Bundy-Esque numbers and then followed by the next Dylan Bundy esque one year contract. In no way was I implying that Tarik Skubal is sitting in our current room of arms. Skubal is a pretty amazing talent. So Yeah... I bristled at that.. The main issue in our discussion was my mistake. I take full responsibility. I know that any time I mention a specific player as an example for the larger point I'm making. The player immediately becomes the focus of the discussion. I know better... I've told myself to stop doing that and yet I did it. So It's on me.

I have a 1 game in person scouting report on Mendez that isn't worth anything. Sat in the 2nd row directly behind home plate on August 10th. One hit to show for it but he hit the ball hard every time. So based on that one game. Call him Up!!! 😉

The trade deadline should have been a pretty clear indicator in the direction and that is a direction set forth by the actions at the deadline set forth by the front office. The money available to spend and therefore path back is probably the unclear part. Regardless... I can't imagine them executing a trade deadline as extensive as this past deadline and not understand the direction forward.

I've always said... the manager would never be my target. He's too low on the food chain. It's always the people who hire the people that deserve the concentric circles on their back.

It is hopefully a decent core to build around. Development will determine the end result and the speed of the rebuild. My concern still lies in what has been a fairly highly rated farm system for quite some time that is still leaving us wanting quite some time later.

Exactly... And the Dodgers draft near the end of every single round. And the Dodgers are able to trade that development for another avenue for acquiring top flight talent. It's not just the job of front office to produce wins. Perhaps the most important thing that a front office can do to aid them in producing wins is: INCREASE THE VALUE OF YOUR PROPERTY. The Dodgers seem to be able to increase the value of their home grown farm system better than others. If you can increase value... you get back more in trades if you choose to go that route. How does Wallner getting pinch hit for in the 3rd inning increase his value? It doesn't... it limits his value. It caps it. People want to trade Wallner now... Now? Did we maximize his value to help us in this re-whatever we are doing? Shall we trade him and let another team maximize his value? The Twins haven't been thinking about the future value of their players for many years now... they've been thinking about how to mix and match this thing together to squeeze out whatever they can out players that won't be back to get through the year. The Bill came due. It was always going to come due and if they don't fix development... They can spend 200 million and face the exact same bill in the future.

1,000% Aligned. If they do this right. They can put themselves in a position where they are shopping near the top of free agency for a player or two and extended fan favorites... instead of finding multiple players chewing the last bit of budget by spending on multiple players at the bottom of free agency. It's critical.

I've often thought about the relationship between a front office and manager and I believe that they have to be on the same page. I know it's a Hollywood script but for example purposes. I've watched Moneyball and I believe that there is no way that a front office would should or could tolerate Art Howe as depicted in the movie. The front office can't go one way while the manager goes the other. In my mind... Rocco would have to be a manifestation of the front office. If not you have a schism. If Rocco was truly the cause of the bottleneck. OK... Derek... show me what you can do now that the bottleneck has been removed but my next question is... why did you allow it for so long if Rocco is the fall guy? Rocco is your employee. Was your employee. Development takes commitment to developing. It takes faith in the product that you are producing. Strip mining your left handed hitters is not a commitment to development. We know that Rocco strip mined every single young left handed hitter to a significant degree beyond what the other 29 teams even considered doing with the platoon advantage. Yet the front office was out there picking up right handed hitting handcuffs to help Rocco do it. I have a hard time separating the two positions so if he is looking for a manager committed to development. Great... Show me.

Outright stupid is a bit strong and those two words (or is it three words) just doesn't cover the ground that nuance lays before all of us. I just wanted to point that I recognize the complication and I recognize the disadvantage and the roll that payroll plays in success if applied properly. At the same time I believe that money isn't what will dig us out of this and I'm under the impression that many fans believe that money cures all. Your graph is accurate... your graph has value. Regardless... we need to divert our eyes from the Green Rectangle. We need to build that solid 80 million payroll team that can take advantage of the extra 80 million spent. If we ever spend it. Develop to become Milwaukee with money. Develop to be Cleveland with Money. In regards to the article. There are multiple ways back to contention. From Trading Ryan and Lopez to keeping Ryan and Lopez and everything in between... money plays a big role in the path chosen forward.

There is absolutely no doubt that Money Matters. There is absolutely no question that the Dodgers, Yankees, Mets and Phillies have an enormous payroll advantage. There is absolutely no question that there is a correlation between money spent and winning. There should also absolutely be no doubt that the Twins don't have money. Never had it... Never will. So... that Blue oval of overachievers is what they need to be because they won't be in the Green rectangle.

Good Please approach it this way. Find a manager who will approach it this way.

As the roster stands right now. In my opinion the Twins need in this order. 1. A Bullpen. I Hate to be this broad and not be specific with the number of bullpen arms but we need multiple arms to fill the bullpen... just to try and get it up to at least average. The only thing I know is this: The Bullpen isn't just about the 8th and 9th. If you look at good bullpens across the league... they are full of players that very few of us have heard of. We can find some players that few of us haven't heard of. There will be some trial and error but the bullpen can be built. 2. A young 1st baseman - The biggest specific hole in the organization... Except for catcher but I'd punt the catcher position because of the over pay involved. Is it Sabato or Fedko. Is it Keaschall or do they move an OF to 1B this off-season. I don't know but we need a young 1B with a Paul Bunyan bat to stop the Ty France one year contract signings and we need it bad. How do you get one? That's tough because the type of player you need in this spot just might cost you Joe Ryan. 3. Young Infielder who can play SS. It doesn't mean that Brooks Lee gets moved off of Shortstop but a young infielder who can play a decent SS is needed because Brooks probably won't play 162 games due to injury or sub par performance. This isn't to suggest that Brooks is not our SS of the future but it is to suggest that Brooks can be challenged for playing time just in case. Pour 13 players through the filter... not 9 because the chances of all 9 making it are slim. Finding 9 players out of 13 increases your odds of finding 9. As for Jenkins, Erod and GG. They can break camp with the club out of spring training or they can be the first person called up when injury occurs. It really doesn't matter to me... just as long as they get playing time when they are added to the 26 man roster. I get the Larnach sentiment. He's just not where we start to fix this thing. He's one of the few hitters that we have returning. It feels like we are far off... I get it. But... IMO... I can see a path to decency. You just gotta look behind these bullpen bushes blocking the view.

I always appreciate your posts Doc. Consistent Comprehensive good reads. When you say Clock is ticking... that's a key point with me. Before you rush Jenkins through the system... you got to make sure that you are not losing anyone with a ticking clock. There has to be an order to these things to prevent chaotic spillage. We should probably look at Erod before Jenkins and we should probably look at Outman before we look at Erod. Because in the end... Jenkins won't be enough. This organization will need Jenkins Plus someone else plus someone else and that train can't stop.