Riverbrian

As always... I appreciate your additions to the nuance.

I don't mind discussion. I don't shy from it. I understand that I have thoughts that run counter to conventional traditional baseball thoughts and should expect discussion. Your belligerence is simply nothing I want any part of. Learn to discuss respectfully or simply ignore. Failing that... I'll just give you a taste of it. You ask for it consistently.

I've asked you to stay away. You can't. What comes next... You've asked for it.

They acquired him knowing he has no options remaining. They could have kept Brock they didn't need to deal him. He's not on the roster because I chose him. I believe the Twins have already chosen him... because a 2 month rental in a lost season is pointless. The Twins are going to make an attempt to get him producing.

The answer is easy: Stop thinking about putting players in buckets like starter and bench. In my opinion... On the current roster... We have two players who have earned everyday playing time. Buxton and Keaschall. That's it. With Two catchers on the roster in their own rotation. That leaves you with 9 players and 6 lineup spots to divide up playing time. I'm not saying the time should be divided up equally but if you did divide it up equally... Everybody plays 2 out of 3 games. Nobody is going to be neglected. Nobody gets splinters. You are running 13 players through the filter with competition for more playing time or less playing time.. You need to run 13 players through the filter at all times if you want to find 9 players who can get it done. If you just run 9 through... you won't find 9. It increases your odds. Wallner, Larnach, Martin and Outman can compete with each other for two outfield spots and the DH position. Rodon, Erod, Jenkins can be quick callups when injury occurs and then they should be allowed to compete. If Outman hasn't figured it out by June. Cut him... Rodon, Erod and Jenkins can be called up to replace him. Lewis and Lee need competition. They don't need to play every day. They can play two out of 3 and be just fine from a development standpoint. If Lewis figures it out and starts being the Lewis we think he should be. Move him to every day status. Now you have 3 every day players... 2 catchers and 8 players to compete for 5 lineup spots. 2026 should be all about compiling as much young talent as possible and competition for playing time. Just get out of the way and let the players tell you through performance.

In my opinion... If it's baked in through evolution. It is what it is. Quit fighting it. Take the incremental improvements that you just might get through exposure. Instead they settle for the neutral split of the right handed hitter to avoid that disadvantage 28% of the time and that is playing the split wrong. RHH vs LHP - 2025 League Wide .721 (.28%) RHH vs RHP - 2025 League Wide .703 (72%) LHH vs LHP - 2025 League Wide .664 (.28%) LHH vs RHP - 2025 League Wide .747 (72%) Why are they running and hiding from the .664 and ignoring the .747. Left handed hitters should be preferable to the right handed hitter all things being equal. If you take the .747 at 72% and the .664 at 28% and compare it to the .703 at 72% with the .721 at 28%. The .747 at 72% and .664 at 28% is going to add up to the correct way to play the platoon split. Of course players are not equal. Talent... Hitting Talent regardless if they are left handed or right handed is what you need up and down the roster. The very second you trade for Manual Margot to limit the development of your left handed hitters. You have compromised the future and gained nothing in the present because Manual Margot will see more right handed hitting due to injury changing the carefully laid out spring training roster with handcuffs placed perfectly on the team breaking camp. That perfectally laid out handcuffed roster will not last 162 games and when it goes away... you'll be wishing that you just went out and got the best hitter you can find instead. Just absorb the left vs left so you can enjoy the left vs right. Going out and seeking Manual Margot to hit 28% of the time isn't going to work through 162 games. Injuries and unexpected poor play are going to change the equation and change it before April ends. And now you got Manual Margot facing more right handed pitching. The equation will change in late September when Margot gets hurt and then all of sudden. Hey Trevor... We need you to all of sudden face left handed pitching in the playoffs. I know we kept you away from it but... we need you now. Sorry for the crappy preparation for this moment. It simply drives me nuts to read posters who are taking Larnach and using his lefty splits against him. Nearly everybody struggles against left handers. Righties struggle against lefties. Find people who don't struggle against right handers and now you have something.

And they still get it wrong. We can down the list on players they got it wrong with. It's extensive. Assessment is hard when you dealing with a large pile of players that are seperated by inches. I don't blame them for being wrong. I want them to understand that they are wrong frequently... I want them to staff the 26 and 40 man rosters using all the predictive powers they have and once they set the rosters... I want them to get out of the way and let the players show them. Defense... I like Defense... I'm a fan. A catch that others wouldn't make are outs they shouldn't have gotten and that turns 3 outs to 2 and this greatly decreases the chances of putting up a crooked number. A catch that wasn't made that others would have made is going from 3 outs to 4 outs in an inning and that greatly increases the odds of a crooked number. I get the value of defense but there is more to the game than these separating OF events that occur once every two and half games... if that. In the meantime... someone still has to out perform Trevor at the plate and we don't have those players on the current roster yet and the DH spot is still an option... if his defense is just to scary.

Excellent post and I wish other could see what you see. I'm all for youth in large numbers rising up through the system but they still have to be better than Larnach before they take their job. I'd rather keep Larnach because he is one of the few who have actually shown something and still make him compete against the army of corner outfielders coming behind him. I want the players to make the decision through performance. If Erod beats Larnach. Erod beats Larnach but you'll never get to that point when you are choosing one over the other in an all or nothing decision. It is uninformed guess work that Larnach would be better against lefties today if allowed to face them yesterday. I fully recognize this. My only argument with your post is the "Baseball People" part. Yes... there are baseball people... they are more informed and better at it than you and I are. These baseball people from all 30 clubs get it wrong to the downside frequently. I'd rather the developing player be allowed to show it and work toward it. I'd rather they not be just dipped into cement.

His vs left numbers indeed suggest platoon but that isn't the mistake. 1. There are at most 4 platoon spots available to 13 hitters on a typical roster. 2. In order to platoon to protect every left handed hitter from the platoon you have to limit the number of left handed hitters on your roster. 3. Left handed hitter vs Right Handed pitching is also a platoon advantage that is now limited by the limiting of left handed hitters on your roster. 4, This forces you to sign lefty pitching specialists. In other words... Right handed hitters who can't hit right handed pitching. 5. When injuries occur and injuries will occur those right handed specialists will now have to face right handed pitching and any platoon advantage you gain against 25% of the pitching is erased by the right handed hitter hitting right handed pitching 75% of the time because you've gone out of your way to add right handed bats to a team that already has 9 of them. 6. By ignoring the 25%... It allows you to focus on the 75% advantage. Adding more left handed hitters than you can platoon and now you are playing the platoon advantage correctly. Do the math... Plug the numbers in. Just take the LHH vs RHP baseball average and apply 72% to it and then take the LHH vs LHP and apply 28% to it. Then do the same with RHH vs RHP and apply 72% to it and then take RHH average vs LHP and apply 28% to it and add them both up. You will see that in order to play the platoon split correctly. You need more left handed hitters in your lineup than right handed hitters. 7. With the first 6 points under full consideration. I'd rather the team just look for hitters period instead of bringing in specialists that just rob development from your left handed hitters. Which leads to something more important still. The actual mistake. 8. Young left handed hitters are still developing. Young Right handed hitters or switchers are still developing. What they are is yet to come. Some may feel differently but I don't expect Brooks Lee to remain a .636 career OPS. I expect Brooks to take his experiences vs Right and left and get better. Taking away the opportunity to face left handed pitching for two years in their early development is pre-determining the outcome. Trevor may never be left handed pitching capable... I don't know... you don't know... the front office doesn't know but the front office left no doubt but not allowing it in the first place. A left handed hitter doesn't have to OPS .800 plus to be worth it. They can OPS .650 and still be worth it. Simply closing the door on them isn't development it's using spare parts and eventually throwing it away. This attitude toward development has led to the situation we are in... not just with Larnach but with the entire squad... over veterened with no trade value, no money left to spend and very little trade value from young players that typically produce the most trade value. And of course... I believe it has been a major factor in the hitting of the wall and the eventual selling at the deadline that we just experienced. 9. When you were a child... you learned the most from birth to age 5. If you want them to learn French... this is when you teach it... birth to age 5. This is when they are becoming who they will become. Go ahead and take something away from a 1 year old and see what happens to them when they reach free agency at age 6. Rob them from social interaction... Keep them in a closet. See what happens when they hit Kindergarten. 10. Go ahead and typecast your young players and see if you can get anything for them in the trade market. If the argument is that the Twins broke him so let's throw him away. I'd be more inclined to accept the discussion. As of right now... This Roster as it stands. Trevor is one of 5 players who are professional hitters on this club. We are standing here looking at Brooks Lee with a 2025 .655 OPS as our everyday shortstop and Twinsdaily is continually overweighting Trevor's .604 against 1 out of 4 pitchers.

I'm going to put my helmet on and get in there again. Trevor increased from 23 PA's against left handers to 118. Thank God they finally let this happen. However... His overall stats were going to come down when lefties got introduced to the equation. It happens when you introduce 100 extra PA's of something into what was 567 total. There will be a cause and effect with that kind of percentage jump. This is something that should have happened two years ago. If his .608 in 2025 against left handers is in line with his career .585 OPS. Surely his .759 OPS in 2025 is in line with his .784 in 2024. Or in line with his .759 career OPS. My hope is that the team continues to add left handed hitters in order to focus on gaining a platoon advantage 75% of the time. My hope is that the team stops announcing to the world that they are looking for right handed hitting and then signing right handed hitting for the sole purpose of facing left handers in order to avoid a platoon disadvantage 25% of the time. My hope is that the Twins stop compromising the development of young left handed hitters likke Jenkins, Rodon and Erod like they compromised the development of Trevor, Matt, Alex and Julien. I also hope that they just stop overweighting the 25% at the expense of the 75%. I also hope that fans would realize that they should probably stop looking at the 25% and I'd like the fan to realize that the Twins did this and fans sure like to see those immediate results. His Stats were going to come down when they finally got around to correcting this mistake two years later.

I win my fantasy league almost every year. They never call us!

The ship is in motion. Tough to turn that thing around now. I've never sailed a ship. I've been told that you got to go out a few miles in order to turn around. I don't know if that's true or not. The plastic ship that I play with in my bathtub can turn on a dime.

I have no inside information therefore no way of knowing but I believe that Falvey and Lavine arrived in Minnesota with an impression that they could significantly increase payroll. The reason I have this impression is because nearly every move they made to staff the roster each and every year can only be justified if they are under the impression that they could significantly increase payroll. They did... they significantly increased payroll and then it stopped. Right about the time that RSN money went away. All of sudden nearly every move they made left the impression that they had absolutely no money at all to work with and they didn't change course. Now Falvey gets a chance to do things more in lines with traditional Minnesota revenue. To not get the rug pulled from under. No false or unsustainable impressions. Commit to youth... Develop or Die. After two years of trying to squeeze the last ounce of baseball out of Ty France and others. There should be no impression that there is significant money to work with. What has to happen next should be absolutely clear. Commit to youth... Develop or Die and maybe just maybe... a decent core can be built at a price point that can augmented by higher price point free agents for a better class of free agent.

I can only guess but the gloom and doom long term thought from many... probably comes from the past. It comes from a long standing stigma attached to youth that in my opinion is no longer necessary or accurate. The farm system is much much more relied upon in today's baseball than it was in the past. Teams are relying upon youth to a larger degree and this has increased the value of prospects to the point where it is now expensive to acquire them. This wasn't true back when the Cubs were giving up a boatload for a half year rental of Aroldis Chapman. If you want a top end prospect now. You'll have to give up talent with years of control to get a top end prospect. The Twins are at a crossroads right now. They can go down the path chosen by Milwaukee and Cleveland with more money as they commit to development at the major league level right now. Doing so will free up significant money to spend to compete for one or two key free agents at a higher price point. Or they can just go down the same path they have taken since Falvey/Lavine arrived in Minnesota. That path is the same path that Philadelphia and the Yankees go down without the money to significantly compete with the Phillies and Yankees on this same path. There is a difference between signing Bryce Harper and signing Ty France. A huge difference but it's the same path. If they continue down the same path that Philadelphia takes and do so without Philadelphia money. If they jJust fill the numerous development gaps with the affordable free agents that Philadelphia doesn't want and still running out of spending money in the process. This will take a painfully long time and there will be a new front office completing it. For 2026 and 2027... I'll just say... Youth doesn't scare me. It's all about finding talent as quickly as possible right now.

This re-whatever it is. Doesn't have to take a long time. Can it take a long time? Yes it can. If the Twins aggressively commit to development and stop the Frankenstein approach. This doesn't have to take a long a time. If they sign a bunch of IKF types to fill space. This re-whatever it is... will take a long time. If they platoon Erod and Jenkins. This will take a long time.

Joe Ryan has the highest value of all players on the Twins roster. Therefore... in theory he returns the most in a trade. His value will never be higher than it is right now. We have multiple holes to fill. It pains me to say it but you trade him this off-season. Everything going forward is going to lower his trade value and I mean everything is going to lower his trade value. Trade him now... you have two years of control to sell. Trade him at the deadline you have 1 year and 2 months of control to sell. Trade him next off-season... you are trading an expiring contract and his value crashes especially when his arb 3 raise goes to 16M to go along with that 1 year of team control. His value just goes straight down from here. If he gets hurt in the first half... Oh Boy... His current value could be erased at the drop of a hat. The time to trade him is now. I can't see any reason where the Mets would trade McLean for Ryan. The Mets need to add arms... not trade arms. The Mets need McLean and Ryan.

I've never seen Royce Lewis interact with his manager or front office. I don't know what he will do or won't do or how he responds to requests from his manager, coaches or front office. I'm unaware of any lines drawn in the sand. Not every ounce of molehill sized unhappiness needs to be a mountain. Expressing publicly that he doesn't want to play 2B. A. Doesn't mean that he won't play 2B if the Manager tells him to go out there B. It doesn't mean that he wouldn't give 100% if the manager tells him to go play 2B. C. It doesn't mean that the mere suggestion of playing 2B made him call his agent and demand a trade. D. It doesn't mean that the manager or front office backed off the idea because of Royce. I don't know what it means other than he expressed that he wasn't comfortable playing 2B when asked. We all ask for honesty instead of PR scripts. He was honest. I'm going to try and not twist his words. We were all pretty sure that Buxton was gone a few years ago over service time. Buxton even said something publicly about his displeasure. Bottom Line: If the Manager needs him to play 2B... He plays 2B. He is allowed to wish he was playing 3B but he plays 2B because the manager thinks it gives the team a better lineup. All I know is this: Royce Lewis is under team control for 3 more seasons. He won't be eligible for free agency until 2029. If you want to trade Royce Lewis... His value has been lowered significantly due to his performance. YOU DON"T TRADE HIM NOW!!! If he is truly concerned about how much money he makes. How big is his Arbtration raise and eventually how much he makes in 2029 as a free agent. It would be in his best interest to start hitting the ball, stay healthy, don't leave any type of impression publicly with the front offices of the other teams that he is uncoachable, unwilling or difficult in any way. I would also advise for his consideration. If he enters free agency with the skills to play 3B and 2B. He will have more teams interested in him because all the teams who need a 3B will be calling and all the teams who need 2B will be calling. This increases the number of teams interested with holes to fill. More teams interested... the more teams bidding... the higher the contract goes. Unless he snaps out of this hitting funk. It's actually kind of silly to be thinking about 2029.

I'm not missing it. I was just working with the numbers that you provided. Anything can be added to the conversation. I added the percentages of AB's because I wish people would stop fixating on the left vs left advantage and strongly consider the left vs right advantage since the 3 out of 4 pitchers are right handed. Utilization/Health can certainly be added for everyone's consideration and you have now introduced that. So it isn't 3 out of 4 pitchers that take the mound, because Wallner's OPS or any numbers are 0 for 48% of the games compared to 9% for Rooker. Wallner missed a few games this year with injuries in2025. Rooker did not. Wallner missed 37 games with a hamstring, 10 at the end of the year with back spasms and 3 games maternity for a total of 50. Rooker played in 162 games. Wallner played in 104 out of 112 games he was available to play. Manager decision. Myself personally. I'm not going to call Wallner injury prone because of one season and I won't project future injuries for either Wallner or Rooker going forward. In 2024 and 2023... Wallner spent a chunk of time in the minors but to my knowledge was basically healthy. That is a front office decision. Wallner doesn't control his utilization much like Rooker didn't control his utilization when he was with the Twins. Rooker was 25, 26 and 27 years old over his first three years. Wallner was 24, 25 and 26 years old during his first three years. Rooker had 270 AB's his first three years of bouncing back and forth with the Twins for two years along with that Padres/Royals season. 71 games over 486 games possible. 14% of games. Wallner played 34% of games over his first three years of bouncing back and forth with the Twins. As bad as some feel Wallner was this year. If we cherry pick home runs. I know there are other stats to consider so I admit to cherry picking. Just using home runs in regards to utilization. Rooker hit 30 dingers over the 699 AB's last year. Wallner hit 22 over 392 AB's. If Wallner gets 699 AB's like Rooker did. He would have hit 39.22 Home Runs. Wallner wasn't healthy enough this year to reach 699. How will Wallner's health be in 2026... I don't know. I also don't know about Rooker's 2026 health. If you want to say (and I would as well) when Wallner has been put in position to succeed (or been healthy)he is basically the same hitter as Rooker I would agree It's not exactly what I'm trying to say but close enough. ... but I'm trying my best to ignore the "put in position to succeed" part. I'm saying that Rooker is good hitter and Wallner's numbers are comparable and I'd rather not fixate on the left vs left because the 3 out of 4 pitchers being right handed matters if you want to play the platoon split the way it should be played. Wallner's .881 vs Right Handed pitching is also a platoon advantage that you can play 3 out of 4 times. It matters. That is a bigger platoon advantage than whatever splits you can produce for 1 out of 4 times. People have been using projections for how good Wallner has been, and projections only work on what might happen going forward, not what happened in the past, the past is the past. So IMO comparing a player that has averaged 148 games the last three years to somebody that averaged 85 is kind of silly. I agree... The past is the past and I could care less about projections since they are TBD. Going forward is what matters and going forward is TBD. What were the projections of Royce Lewis and George Springer going into 2025. Royce was supposed to outslug Springer .470 to .416. Springer won that battle .560 to .388. I cherry picked those two right off the top of my head. I'm not sure what makes 148 games to 85 games comparison silly. . It's all we have to work with due to... health and Front Office/Manager decisions creating the numbers. I won't penalize Wallner for getting hurt, I won't penalize Wallner for the front office keeping him in St. Paul for 3 months while Margot is on the 26 man roster . And everybody should know by know... I will not under any circumstance... penalize Wallner for the front office searching for right handed hitting OF'ers every damn year so Wallner's complete development can be compromised just to avoid a 1 out of 4 time platoon advantage. I mean there is a reason that over that time Rooker has a WAR of 9.9 and Wallner's is 4.9 (which is pretty great for a part time player) I know you know this but for everyone else WAR is a cumulative stat. The more you play... the bigger the number you can accumulate. Health and Utilization (Manager Decision, Internal competition of the teams they play for) isn't something any player should be penalized for. Wallner was close to unplayable in his two great yet limited years against left handed pitchers. You will never convince me of this. If he was unplayable in 2023 and 2024. We certainly made sure that he would remain unplayable by keeping him distanced from left handed pitching. He was predetermined to be unplayable. 46 PA's in 2023 against lefties due to manager decision doesn't say a thing other than the manager played the short side of a platoon advantage and compromised his development in the process. 44 PA's in 2024 due to manager decision doesn't say a thing other than the manager played the short side of a platoon advantage and compromised his development in the process. 97 PA's due to health primarily in 2025 is better but it would have been nice to see a larger sample with better health. Regardless it produced a .791 OPS. But... Yeah... The Past is the past. Let's see what 2026 brings. If the front office is so fixated on the left vs left pitcher advantage that they are willing to compromise every developing left handed hitter in favor of low dollar specialists and therefore limit the number of left handed hitters on your roster. They screwed up since the true advantage is on the other side of the platoon 3 out of 4 times. If the front office is willing to continue to look for right handed hitters despite 8 of them already on the roster... just to address this fixation or overweighting the significance of a short side 1 out of 4 pitchers that the team will face in a given season. They screwed up. If the front office favors right handed hitters because they typically have more neutral splits. They are focusing on the 1 out of 4 and ignoring the 3 out of 4 advantage and they screwed up. More left handed hitters in the lineup allows you to play the platoon split advantage 3 out of 4 times. Yes you take a disadvantage 1 out of 4 times but 3 out of 4 is bigger than 1 out of 4. The Twins screwed up. 3 out 4 compared to 1 out of 4... Is actually a plus in support of Wallner over Rooker. If you want to display their splits for the purpose of comparison. I won't penalize Wallner or any of our developing left handed hitters by what the Twins did to them because they comprehensively over weighted a stat and deployed it. After watching the Twins since Falvey hit town. I'm not going to penalize Wallner because the Oakland Front Office decided to play Rooker every day. Especially if you factor in that Rooker was utilized even less than Wallner was utilized in their first two years with the Twins. Development Years... Development years. The future... sustained competitiveness. Budget space, Development. Development, Development. The Twins screwed up because they chose to Frankenstein a roster together with spare parts instead of developing the players who will be around in 2025 and 2026 and 2027. The bill has come due.

I'm just going to quote your accurate career numbers... and add some stuff. This player is Wallner OPS vs RHP - .881 767 PA's OPS vs LHP - .641 205 PA's 79% of all PA's vs RH - 21% vs LH This player is Rooker OPS vs RHP - .820 1528 PA's OPS vs LHP - .853 581 PA's 72% of all PA's vs RH - 28% vs RH Applying Rooker''s 72/28% to both because I assume it has less platoon attached to it. Wallner ,881 x 72 = 63.342 .641 X 28 = 17.948 Total: 81.29 Rooker .820 x 72 = 59.04 .853 X 28 - 23.884 Total: 82.92 Wallner is already producing better OPS vs 3 out of the 4 pitchers that take the mound and it's not like Rooker out distances Wallner by leaps and bounds when lefties get factored in to drag Wallner down a little.

Here's what I'd like the Twins to do with Wallner. Simplify his swing and stance. It has too many moving parts to it. (Disclaimer): I am not qualified to rework anybody's swing and I'm 89% sure that a batter must be comfortable. If he is actually comfortable looking uncomfortable to us viewers with his current set up... who am I to... you know. OK... after that disclaimer. I'd like to see him try taking the junk out of his swing... at least excess junk. He's got good rotation... he doesn't need to lean back into the umpire before releasing like a tightly coiled spring using every molecule of every fiber of his being. That high pull back leg lift from that open of a stance creates more inconsistency or junk. That powerful of a load and release from someone who is already Godzilla powerful enough is producing that top of the league exit velocity. It's like he's trying to win a long drive contest with a 5-Iron on every single swing. Maybe reduce it to... umm... trying to win a long drive contest with an actual driver. Just lessen it. If you lift and load that much. You really gotta time that thing... I mean... you gotta time that thing like Levon Helm. I see him leaking quite a bit when he mistimes it as he tries to just maintain it. That leak will make it hard to catch up with fastballs up in the zone. Now... when he times it right... my goodness... hide the women and children! If he struggles with timing... Twinsdaily wants to trade him. Simplify it. Lessen it. Just a normal stance and swing. Matt is strong enough that he doesn't need that big of a load. He can calm that thing down.

Absolutely... without question. Could you imagine the Twins with 60 million worth of ballplayers not being utilized? There is no comparable path between these two franchises. Other than we met in the playoffs two years ago.

Around 60 million of the Toronto 258 Million Dollar Payroll hasn't contributed to the Blue Jays success in the post season this year. That's what money does. It allows you to absorb that type of loss. Berrios, Santander, Bichette haven't been utilized. From those contributing to their advancement. Vlad, Springer and Gimenez are about 67 million for those 3 spots. Varsho is 8.2M IKF is 7.5M, Kirk is 4.6M and that adds up to 20.3M Lukes, Clement and Barger all make the minimum. Starters... they have been rotating 4 starters. Gausman, Beiber and Scherzer cost about 38M combined and Yesavage costs the minimum. The Bullpen... The Jays have Bassitt in the pen basically. He costs 22 Million. The rest of the pen. Hoffman and Yurial cost 7 million each. Lauer is 1.7M. The other 4 bullpen arms make the minimum. I go through this exercise to point out the obvious. The Twins will never be in this ball park.

If other teams have interest in Wallner. The Twins (a team searching for major league talent) should also have interest in Wallner. If other teams don't have an interest in Wallner. That's a different story.

The Devers trade was a disaster for the Twins. Minnesota was 36-34 before Devers being traded to the Giants. They went 34-58 after the deal.