Riverbrian

It's rarely fair. Probably only fair if they fire it off first because they were not being fair. We get where we are in our opinions from different paths. You can disagree and make your case without it. Without disagreement there isn't much to discuss. I just shut down the conversation when I get hit with it or sentiment of the like. In this case... I'll assume that "Never" was a bit augmented because the front office has obviously made moves to improve the team in their 8 years and also made moves that didn't work like the other 29 organizations. No matter how we feel at the moment in the midst of this selling... the club has been competitive. Just not to the degree of the liking of some. In regards to the trade. This is what selling looks like. There are some smart posters that I respect on this website who were typing Sell Sell Sell and now they don't like the sale. Well... This is what selling looks like. You can't ask for rain and then not like the rain when it comes. I have no opinion on Abel or Tait or the young catcher from the Tigers. I'm not going to judge the deal today. and I'm not going to judge any deals to come today. I have my issues with this front office but I'm going to give them the benefit of the doubt that they made their phone calls and didn't take a lesser deal on purpose. I'm going to assume that they believe that this was the best offer they could get and they took it. Judgement is for tomorrow because this trade will be won or lost based on how this organization develops the players acquired. I've never seen this Tait kid and I'm certainly not going to trust the opinion of some guy writing an opinion and then pass that opinion off as my own. I'm certainly not going to look at numbers produced as a 19 year old and think that he is frozen in time and this is what he will be as a 24 year old. All organizations have coaching who have jobs to improve players that make them major league ready. If the kid doesn't develop... they lost the trade. This is yet to be determined. Therefore, I don't understand the preemptive anger before the results are tallied. I did see Abel pitch in the majors for an inning or two and he looked real good. I certainly am not going to form an opinion on Abel based on those two innings. I'm just going to say that this is what selling looks like and I appreciate your efforts to represent the other side against an overwhelming opposition wind. In regards to the 2021 draft. We do have 2021 draftee Ohl (Future MLB Production and Value yet to be determined) and we have Festa who looks pretty good to me and someone I would place a bet on. DeBarge on the other hand was the 33rd overall pick in the 2024 draft... His future MLB Production and Value yet to be determined). We agree and disagree at the same time when you state your personal issue. The Twins have been trying to put a decent product on the field, trying to win today. I agree and I do believe that that mindset has been a major factor that has led to the selling. Where we disagree is... I don't believe that it is necessary to do a "Proper Tank" to remain competitive. Your farm just has to produce and keep producing and that's where the Twins have fell short. The going for it every year is probably a big reason why. The Red Sox traded Devers and went on a winning streak. They have a lineup of 6 pre-arb players in their starting lineup. The Tigers are loaded with 18 pre-arb players... the Brewers have 18 pre-arb players. Cleveland is constantly loaded up with pre-arb players year after year. The Rays. None of them have done a proper tank they just keep producing and they keep bringing in more in trades just like the Duran trade that has everybody all worked up. None of this is shocking to me... I've been saying for quite some time now that a bill was going to come due for the constant parade of cheap one year vets and what is a lack of trust in their own farm system. The proper tank that you speak of becomes necessary when a club has no other place to turn and I think the front office has painted themselves into a corner in that regard. They don't have the youth (That they routinely show trust in) to fill the spaces and they don't have the money to bring in players developed by other organizations. This is what it looks like when you hit that wall. They got to go to ownership and tell them that we need more money to keep doing what we have been doing and I don't have the impression that conversation will go well. We have never had a big boy budget. So... you become a crash dummy into that wall. On expiring contracts alone... we will have 7 roster spots to fill next year and Arb raises will eat up the majority of that available off-season money from the expiring contracts. Nobody should have the expectation that we are going to have approval for a massive budget increase (Even with new Owners). It makes it kind of obvious that the team is going to have move some higher dollar players either now or in the off season just to staff the club in 2026. If it's not Duran now... It's Ryan now or Duran, Ryan or Lopez in the off-season because they need more money just to fill the spaces to remain competitive. The raise that Duran was going to get in Arb was probably a big one so by removing that Arb Raise and getting young prospects back... they have a little more money to fill the open spaces... still not enough while they go from 7 to 8 roster spots to fill with the loss of Duran. We will probably see additional trades or even cuts rather than pay the Arb raise in the off-season to free up more money for 2026. None of this is shocking to me. This bill was always coming due... it was just a matter of time in how long the front office could McGyver things together with the Ty France types but this bill was unavoidable at some point in time.

I read the title of this thread and thought to myself. Is it possible the Phillies were using Jax as leverage in the Duran deal. "Listen, the price is too high for Duran... there are other relief pitchers that I can get. I can always call the Twins and get something done for Jax instead".

I'm not sure. Someone will be given the role and a new closer will enter the world, fantasy leagues will scramble to pick up the new guy in an attempt cheaply acquire saves. His agent will be excited about the sudden increase in value because graduating from holds to saves drives up value and leads to more money down the road. Someone will fill the role.

I'll give you credit for standing up against a stiff wind tonight. I think you've been good balance in an unbalanced world in front of pitchforks but when you get belligerent and start calling people ignorant... you lose me. The entire top of the 2021 draft is elsewhere. Petty, Miller, Hajjar, Povich, CES are not in Minnesota and neither are any of the acquisitions in their deals. Gray, Margot, Mahle and Jorge Lopez. And technically you are therefore listing Gray twice in your list of 4 examples of front office effort. Since Gray is part of that 2021 crew. You are correct though... these moves feel like ages go because they were in a baseball sense of time. The bill for them is unfortunately being paid right now. I think you are also correct when you say the frustration is more than the specifics of this trade.

Creativity - Diversification. I love out of the box thinking.

From an in game entertainment standpoint. We lost a lot. The Duran entrance was perhaps... the only moment of produced game experience dramatics to bring some energy into the place. With that gone... the produced entertainment trying to create energy will all fall on TC Bear. That's a lot of pressure for any Bear to bear. I always bet on Louie the Loon. But, I can't say I rise to my feet as the racers hit the home stretch.

He was. And who else? Jeffers will be Arb 3 next season... Did we not have enough time to produce more catching?

Something... Anything other than what has been developing our catchers to this point. I'm ready to turn catcher development over to AI.

These over pays ain't happening any more.

This is what selling looks like. My feathers are unruffled. I'm more pissed about the actual need for selling. Sellers sell... This is what it looks like. If the Twins were buyers... they were not going to give up Jenkins. I'm not shocked that the Phillies hung on to Painter with both fists and I wouldn't be surprised if the Mariners hung on to Ford and the Dodgers hang on to Rushing. This is what selling looks like. Now... What's next. To win this trade... we will find out later but the Twins have to be the ones who win it. Trades are not won or lost when the deal is made. Trades are won or lost after the trade. If the Twins want to win this trade. Prove you all wrong. They need to develop the players they chose to acquire. Let's see if they can develop when it hasn't been a strong suit.

Who knows... But I can't imagine the possibility... not even remotely consider the possibility that the Twins would spend the millions over the 5 years of the deal and then allow remaining 1.5m or whatever result in compromising the trade value of your acquisition for the future when they are so close to the finish line on the contract. I mean who knows... but that would be extending the original contract mistake into the future. Instead of being done with the mistake in one month... you have now extended the penalty of the original contract by taking a lesser prospect in return. I can't see that. I truly can't... that would be another level of incompetence. I have to imagine that the Twins talked to multiple teams and the Tigers offered the best deal. Doesn't matter what the prospect rankings say, doesn't matter what the ratings that are passed out for public consumption. The scouts, the analytics team, the evaluators like this 19 year old kid better than other players offered. I believe they chose this kid out of the other players offered from the Tigers and other teams... if there were other teams? I don't believe the kid was forced upon them so they could shed Dobnak's remaining whatever it is. I think it is more likely that they decided to go with Detroit and said Oh BTW... I'll go with this deal if you take Dobnak. Detroit probably said sure fine... let's just get it done so we can move on to addressing other team needs before Thursday arrives. But again... Who knows... I wasn't in the room either.

Nearly everyone is touching 98 with their fastballs these days. They are watching pitch counts in order to prevent injuries and injuries are more frequent these days. Not sure if the human arm is supposed to do that sort of thing. I'm all for Joe Ryan getting 288 Innings and I'm all for Duran getting 150 innings. I'd like to see Paddack... Guys with the 4.98 ERA get 80 innings instead of simply eating as many as they can and calling it value. In my mind... the answer lies outside of the current constraints. That's the redesign I'd like to see. If that means going back to Gene Mauch and his usage of Goltz and Campbell. OK... I'm open to it.

And we need an update from that update. Yes, Grandpa did manage it... yes he did and so is the current generation. Weather it is still high functioning is open to debate. Watching pitch counts and it can't be denied that they all do it today... for whatever reason... weather it helps prevent injury or a reaction to the third time through the order stats... all teams are watching pitch counts and that has caused an increase in bullpen usage. You and I are in complete agreement that you can't hide pitchers in the bullpen because of the increased bullpen usage. Does it all still fit in that box of how Grandpa managed it and which Grandpa are we talking about. Grandpa or Great Grandpa? Dave Goltz threw 249 innings in 1976 and he ranked 25th in baseball. Bill Campbell led the team in saves that year with 20 and he threw 167 innings total. Randy Jones led baseball with 315 innings that year. Rawley Eastwick was the save leader with 26 and he cranked out 108 innings. In 1987... Bert Blyleven threw 267 innings in 1987 that was 4th best in baseball... knuckleballer Charlie Hough was the leader with 285 IP. Viola threw 251 innings. Reardon had 31 saves in 80 innings of work. Steve Bedrosian led baseball with 40 saves and 89 innings. Fast Forward to 2024... Logan Gilbert led baseball with 208 innings in 2024. Only 4 pitchers eclipsed the 200 mark. Ryan Helsley led the league in saves with 49 and he threw 66 innings. Somewhere in the universe there is a way to get more innings to your best arms and less innings to your worst arms but you are not going to find that way with a 5 starter rotation where a 4.98 ERA starter gets over 150 innings and and lights out closer or set up guy gets 60. I'm not sure that the currently model will be alive and well in 2045 so we might as well start working on the new thing. The current data and utilization is creeping out of it's boundaries.

How indeed! The landscape is shifting and spilling outside of the boxes designed by Grandpa back in the 80's. The math in your post will go right past a lot of people but It will lead to a better understanding of what it takes to not only get through a game but to get through a season. 1440 innings to be covered during a season. How do you cover them? A redesign is long overdue. Somewhere in the universe there is a way to increase the innings thrown by Duran while lessening the innings thrown by Paddack. That type of adjustment is hard to do under the constraints of starters throw 5 and relievers throw 1 in the face of shrinking pitch counts. Change is necessary... gotta find the fit... the next new thing... the solution to the problem. You gotta bust through the constraints set decades ago. The cavalry was a military game changer at the time. You can let the horses run all over you or you can start sharpening really long sticks and adjust. The 5 man rotation, 1 inning at a time reliever model is in need of an update.

I have no expectations. I happy for him and hope his dreams come true. I love major league debuts.

This paragraph just reminded me of something that I'd like to revisit because I think it's important. I'm typically not a fan of bunting because in my opinion... the OUT itself is the most important stat in baseball. However... as you very sensibly say... there are times when the ability to bunt is important. Last year... the Twins like always rarely laid down a bunt. That's OK... that stats strongly suggest that they shouldn't lay down a bunt... However... In September when things were falling apart and Wins were critical for survival... We all of a sudden turned to the bunt to try scrape something together.... we spent all season ignoring it and all of sudden... Hey... Need it now. Basically... I think this is important because if you are going to need a bunt to win a game in September or bunt to win a game in the playoffs... If bunts are going to suddenly become a club in the bag. I think you should probably bunt to try win a game in April, May, June, July and August.

Yep The Tigers and the pre-arb army. Which BTW... those Tigers may be down in numbers after the deadline acquisitions to come. While the Twins may be up significantly after the deadline.

While I agree that a retooling is necessary... It's also hard to endorse a retooling when we are just pouring more players that need development into a machine that is not developing a sufficient number of players. The retooling needs to be done on the machine itself.

I'm not saying anything definitive but I think it's at least interesting to say. Here goes: Last night... The Twins maneuvered themselves into a situation where they were down a run with Keirsey, Gasper and Lee in the 1,2 and 4 spots in the order. Keirsay getting a rare start, Gasper pinch hitting for Larnach in the 7th and Lee pinch hitting for Clemens in the 7th. It's interesting because I'm pretty sure that those three would have been the last 3 that Rocco would want up to the plate in that situation. The bench was drained with Buxton the only player available and he wasn't available. Yet... With a lot of help from the Veteren Pitcher Hicks. It somehow worked out. Again... I'm not saying that this is the way to go. It's just interesting and how baseball has it's own way of doing things game to game. Vets can blow it and youth can come through.

The Twins are not young. They are top ten oldest. 8th in the league. They are the 2nd lowest paid (team payroll) of the top ten oldest squads. Only the Pirates are in the top ten in age with a lower payroll. The Mariners would be the other team similar age structure and similar payroll in the top ten. The other squads that comprise top ten are payroll big boys: Dodgers, Phillies, Padres, Rangers, Mets, Astros, Giants. And if you keep going. The Cubs, Braves and Yankees are the next 3 on the list. I apologize for this post but I am personally spending a lot of time trying to point out the hole that they have dug in comparison with their peers. The number of pre-arb players in comparison (players making the minimum) with the other 29 teams. The effect on payroll (The limited money left over to fill the holes not being filled by younger players) and to also show that youth doesn't necessarily mean wins or mean losses as a result when you look at the youth numbers and the Win Loss records. Ultimately, what I'm trying to show is that the Twins have fallen behind in development.

The Boston Red Sox arrived in Minnesota with 14 players with less than 3 years service time. 14 Players comprised of 6 out of the typically starting 9 players and 9 of 13 offensive players pre-arb. 2 out of the 5 in the rotation. The Twins countered with 11 players with less than 3 years service time with Gasper replacing Jeffers for the birth of his child. After the the comeback win from the Twins last night. The Red Sox are 57-51 on the year. The Twins are 51-55.

Trades are typically equal value when made. All front offices have similar metrics to compare and contrast. I believe that if they make a deal... it's going to a be a similar deal that any of the 29 other front offices would make. So I'm OK with them making deals. Where my trust is shaken is the necessary development of the players acquired. There will be an influx of young talent that need to get MLB ready. I don't think we can expect an influx of MLB ready players acquired in the deals we are about to make this week. Once again we are at the crux of the problem. Development. I don't think pouring more prospects into a filter that not much is coming out of solves much in the end. Handing more oranges to a struggling juggler isn't going to solve the juggling issue. Just more oranges bruised on the floor.

The Washington Nationals came to Target Field with 17 Pre-Arb players. The Twins are up to 12 with the addition of Gasper. The Nats are 42-62. The Twins are 50-54.

Acquiring prospects and trading prospects at the deadline. Interesting... So... trading a prospect or three from a SHRINKING 40 man roster to a team with a GROWING 40 man roster. Are the Yankees going to take Julien as a sweetener in a Castro deal, therefore adding two players to the 40 man roster causing two to be Jettisoned so they can add Castro and Julien? Maybe we can just scoop up the players the Yankees jettison if only we could get the Yankees to cooperate. Do the Phillies or Mariners see Julien as a deadline savior that they will commit a 40 man spot and give up a lottery ticket? Will a struggling team like the Rockies want to add Julien to the 40 man and give him a whirl... they might... are they going to give up a prospect for him or Miranda when the Rockies also need prospects? Or are we trying to get McMahon from the Rockies so we can trade his expiring contract to the Yankees. This is a November trade discussion when they pull the pile of options together and figure out who gets a 40 man spot out of the 44 they are considering. We don't like these guys so we should trade them because other teams love them discussions makes me scratch my head.

Agreed