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Riverbrian

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  1. Redrafts are fun but incredibly unfair in my opinion. But... it didn't stop me from looking back at past drafts. 2025... #16 overall - Marek Houston was the selection - 4 catchers Irish, Bodine, Oliveto and Stevenson were taken after Houston and before the Next Twins selection. I will pass no judgement on this. Only Irish was drafted near the 16th selection. 2024... #21 Overall - Kaelen Culpepper was the selection - 3 catchers Moore, Lomavita and Cozart were selected after Culpepper and before the next Twins selection. Only Moore was reasonably distance from the #21 pick. 2023... #5 Overall - Walter Jenkins was the selection - 3 catchers were taken between Jenkins and the next selection. I don't think anyone is regretting the Jenkins selection so the names don't matter. 2022... #7 overall - Brooks Lee was the selection - 3 catchers Parada, Susac and Rushing were taken between Lee and the Twins next selection. Only Parada was drafted reasonably close to #7 overall. Hindsight could suggest that Rushing would have been a better selection. I'm not saying that... I'm saying could. However... I think it matters that Rushing was selected 40th and that's a long way from 7th. 2021... #26 overall - Chase Petty was the selection - Only 1 catcher Mack was taken between Petty and the Next selection. If anybody wanted to be concerned about the Petty selection. Catcher isn't where you would direct that concern. Jackson Merrill was selected the next pick after Chase Petty. 2020 - #27 overall - Aaron Sabato was the selection - 3 catchers were selected between Sabato and the next Twins selection. Wells, Romo and Dingler. If we wanted to do a redraft and criticize the Sabato selection. It would be a legit criticism. Wells went one pick after Sabato. Romo 8 picks after and Dingler 10 picks after. 2019 - #13 overall - Keoni Cavaco was the selection - 1 catcher Lee was selected between Cavaco and the next selection which was Wallner. Corey Lee went 19 selections after Cavaco so I'm not sure we can criticize not taking a catcher at 13 instead of Cavaco but we can certainly criticize the selection of Cavaco over Corbin Carroll. 2018 - #20 overall - Trevor Larnach was the selection - Ryan Jeffers who has one year before free agency was out 2nd pick at #59 overall. 2 Catchers Siegler and Bo Naylor between Larnach and Jeffers. I have no criticism. Jeffers has out performed Siegler whoever he is and Bo Naylor. We got the guy. Well... We got the guy if you ignore Cal Raleigh who went #90 that year. 2017 - #1 Overall - Royce Lewis was the selection - No Catchers were selected between Lewis and the next Twins selection. Looking at DECENT catchers on rosters across baseball that have arrived since 2017. IFA's Basallo, Narvaez, Quaro, Diaz, Moreno, Alverez 3rd round or later Picks Wong, O' Hoppe, Raleigh, Feduccia, Goodman, Hicks, Pages Was available after a DFA Joey Bart That's pretty much it for the Falvey era. Looking at the current Twins catching roster. Jeffers - 2nd Round Gasper - Trade (Cost us Moran) Pereda - Waivers Olivar - IFA Cardanes - 8th round Winkel - 9th round Baez - 12th round Cossetti - 11th round Ruiz - Undrafted College Player Tait - Trade (Cost us Duran) Diaw - 3rd Round Jimenez - Trade (Cost us Paddack) D. Pena - IFA R. Pena - IFA Castillo - IFA Nunez - IFA Again Hindsight is 2020 so this type of thing can be unfair. But I would conclude that they blew the 2020 Draft in regards to Catching picking Sabato with Wells, Romo and Dingler drafted shortly after. I also think that whatever we are doing in regards to our approach with International Free Agents could be questioned. Other than that... The Twins and a 28 other teams really blew it with Raleigh, Goodman and O'Hoppe going in later rounds. Hoppe was drafted in like the one millionth round. Just for fun - Cal Raleigh was selected 90th overall in 2018. As I mentioned earlier... The Twins took Jeffers in the 2nd round - 59th overall. Interestingly... the Twins did not have a 3rd round selection that year. They forfeited that pick when they signed Lance Lynn. The pick probably would have been after the 90 pick had they retained it. Just for fun - Hunter Goodman... I really like this kid. Hunter was selected in the 4th round 109 overall. The Twins selected 98th in the 3rd round and took Cade Povich 11 picks before. Carter Jensen and Adrian Del Castillo were selected 78 and 67 that year. Hajjar was selected by the Twins at 61. I'll add 2021 to 2020 where the Twins could have... should have drafted a decent catcher if they had the powers of foresight. So in conclusion... Unfairly... If the Twins knew then what I know now. We could have had Ryan Jeffers, Austin Wells, Hunter Goodman and Basallo on the roster today. Would have cost us Sabato and Hajjar. Oh the Pain... The Pain.
  2. You are probably right and we are talking about Hrbek who is one of the best players in Twins history. On the other hand. Even Kepler eventually got sucked into the vortex when the left handed hitter pile dwindled with those right handed hitting handcuffs needing to be fed. Kepler was able to avoid it for awhile when there were 3 or 4 other left handed hitters on the roster to pair up with the right handed hitting specialists. The 1987 Twins were extremely right handed. I could be wrong but I believe that Hrbek and Randy Bush were the only pure left handed hitters on the team come playoff time. This is question is impossible to answer and I appreciate your answer.
  3. From my viewpoint... At the moment... Things seem very similar between Minnesota and Pittsburgh. Both teams have the makings of a young talented rotation. Both teams have a lot of work to do in the bullpen. Both teams have been struggling to develop hitting talent. Both teams committed a significant number of AB's to aging veterans (Cutch, Pham and IKF) with expiring contracts instead of youth. I think Shelton is looking at the Twins players that he has to work with and feeling like he hasn't left Pittsburgh.
  4. If you limit the search to those who qualifty for a batting title 502 PA's. There was exactly 100 players on all 30 teams with higher OPS last year than Spencer Steer. There were 97 players on all 30 teams with a higher OPS last year than Larnach. Based on those parameters... (how often they played and OPS as the sole comparison data set)... based on the actual data... any given team should have 3.33 players better than Steer and Larnach. 3 players better on average can apparently cause a stink for the 4th guy with 13 players typical for a 26 man roster. If you remove any AB qualifying threshold meaning 1 AB qualifies you. There are 206 Players who had a higher OPS than Spencer Steer. 201 better than Larnach. Approximately 6.86 per team. That's every sample size under the sun and most rosters require 13 hitters on a 26 man roster. If you put the threshold to 182 AB's. I chose 182 because people are pretty sure Keaschall will never stumble and are at the moment pitchfork less toward Luke. We are talking an average of 5.5 per team with better OPS than Steer and Larnach. 13 hitters at a given time the typical requirement for a 26 man roster. There are people on Bulldog daily who want Kirby Smart fired. I tend to believe that the people with pitchforks are not doing the math.
  5. I thought Derek Shelton coached the Chicago Bears.
  6. I'd love to have the opportunity to ask questions. I'd come up with a lot of them but I wouldn't want the press conference answer. I'd start with... what went wrong in Pittsburgh... Followed by what went right? What would he do differently if he could do it again? Was there interference from the front office or ownership? How much control does a manager really have? Why wasn't or isn't Pittsburgh able to do what Milwaukee has been doing with a similar budget? What went wrong with Minnesota last year. How are you different from Baldelli? I'd probably have about 150 additional questions on development, platooning, rotations. bullpen usage. you name it. I would probably need 12 hours straight and I'd probably need to inject him with a stimulant periodically to keep him awake and participating.
  7. LOL Well... I'd advise not letting me stop you. It's fun trying to think about trade ideas. I do it all the time. Never knowing if I'm even close and I'm just as crazy as you. No more qualified for such things. I've actually spent man hours trying to decide what I would do with my Twins now. I'm 60 years old with responsibilities and I'm spending mental energy on if I would trade Ryan. To the point that I missed a two minute story my wife was telling me about a co-worker and I was totally busted when she asked if I was paying attention... Spoiler Alert: I wasn't. Anyway... It's fun... it's a topic for discussion and people are absolutely willing to participate. It drew me in... because I liked the opportunity to post my controversial punt the position idea.
  8. Yes... and with his offensive talent... the price tag goes through roof. I'd love to have Rutschman on my team. If you could choose a catcher. He'd be a top 5 consideration. I'm just trying to avoid paying the exorbitant scarcity costs for a position that needs more rest that other positions. Our trading resources for big acquisitions isn't endless. We can't fill every hole... you have to prioritize. Our resources for big acquisitions appear to be quite limited in my opinion. If we are trading one of our biggest trade chips value wise. We actually might be trading perhaps our ONLY sensible big trade chip. We are not going to move Jenkins. At least... we better not. If you are moving another pitcher besides Ryan because that is where the most value is. Well... Now you have really weakened the pitching staff and that alone almost nullifies the need for a big expensive talented catcher like Rutschman because your pitching staff is no longer good enough to justify it the investment. I think we will have to Trade Ryan. Once you blow that value and trade it off... there really isn't anymore of it. You fixed catcher for 120 games maybe and you don't have a 1B... our a SS that can move the needle for a 162 games.
  9. Trades are fun to think about but really hard to assess because the other team has to cooperate with your hopes and dreams and there is really no way of knowing. So I can look at it from my perspective. If I were the Orioles. I'm thinking last year was just last year. There is still young talent on this team. Having two solid catchers is what you want. Having three solid catchers is the goal so you can take advantage of the market. If I'm the Orioles I'm happy with my catching and I'd rather not put every chip in the Basallo bucket being that he is young. They need pitching... so even if I decided that Rutschman is the best option to acquire pitching. I don't think Ober would do it for me. I love Bailey but I'm making more calls around the league.
  10. I really can't argue with you. The catching hole is gaping. I get it. I just have to be the guy on the website that needs to say. We should focus elsewhere because we are on the wrong side of this market. I'd rather not over pay for this particular organizational mistake. Value has to be a consideration when drafting. Catchers are consistent over pays. We have to fix this. I had dinner with Dave Ramsey once and I asked him... What's the biggest mistake people make with their money. He said the car payment. He said if you just drove a beater around for awhile and made the car payment to yourself and bought new when you saved enough and repeated that process they would save incredible amounts of money. I guess I'm saying... the Twins should just drive a beater around for awhile until they can create something new.
  11. When I say punt... I'm saying just grab the defense guy who can't hit without the catcher price tag. Forget the offense. The catchers who can hit are the ones that cost the resources. Take your resources and spend it on other departments for more bang for the buck.
  12. That could be. Regardless... The Orioles are not afraid to draft Catchers higher in the draft. I don't know how they compare to the other 30 teams in that regard. The Twins... Not so much.
  13. Rutschman is a good player. Love to have him catch for the Twins. I'd rather they didn't. Catchers are almost always over pays. He will be expensive for the two years remaining. We have limited resources available to offer in a trade for something significant. I'd rather they spend those resources on a position that doesn't require the rest that catchers typically require. So please no. Just punt the position. Sleep in the bed you made. The Twins front office will not have the ability to fix everything at once. Something will have to be punted. I will say this... Wouldn't it be wonderful to be on the other side of this inflated catching market? Wouldn't it be wonderful to have Rutschman, Basallo, Irish, Bodine. Wouldn't it be advantageous to be able to trade one for an inflated price to a team that didn't have the same foresight to pile up catching and needs to pay the inflated price. The Orioles have been loading up on catching in the early rounds. The Twins... not so much.
  14. 497K views · 7.3K reactions | On This Date in 1987: With the bases... WWW.FACEBOOK.COM On This Date in 1987: With the bases loaded and two out in the bottom of the sixth in Game 6 of the World Series, the Cardinals brought in lefty Ken Dayley to face Kent Hrbek, who deposited...
  15. One of my favorite moments in Twins history was the Game 6 Kent Hrbek Grand Slam. The Twins were down 3 games to 2. I believe the Twins were ahead 6-5 in the 6th inning when Kent Hrbek came up to the plate with the bases juiced. Whitey Herzog sensibly predictably brought in the lefty Ken Dayley to Face Herbie. Hrbek had pretty deep splits in 1987. .660 OPS against lefties and a 1.042 OPS against right handers. In the 1987 playoffs... Hrbek was 0 for 17 against left handers when Dayley was called from the pen. I think it was one pitch and Boom... Over the CF wall. That's the setup... Here's the question. Do you think Baldelli would have pinch hit for Hrbek in that situation? The switch hitting rookie Gene Larkin would have been available... over the course of the 1987 season. Larkin had a .752 OPS against lefties. He is a rookie and Kent Hrbek is Kent Hrbek. It's a pointless question to ask but I find myself wondering when a video of it came across my facebook video feed last night.
  16. You just got to squint. The hope is in the small print. BTW... I just wrote a line for a song. I Need to go work on a chord progression and melody.
  17. As much as I complain. I'm optimistic every opening day and probably optimistic to a fault but I don't know any other way to be. I like having a reason to get up in the morning. I still think this team is closer than most realize but there is still time to widen that gap before the off-season is over. I even stay optimistic in August when it's clear the season is over and they sell like they did because at the very least... they are moving in a direction toward something. My optimism gets challenged when they sit still and the past three seasons have been... well... basically sitting still at least until this trade deadline. That just leads to me pointing at the upcoming wall. Wall! Wall!... You're going to hit a wall! Luckily... it allowed me to brace for the upcoming crash. How's that for optimism?
  18. No Idea but if I had to guess. Falvey and Shelton would leave at the same time. A new Front office would want their own manager. I have no idea if Falvey's back is actually against the wall... but if your back is against the wall. You'd want someone you know and trust in that dugout. I guess... my guess is that these two would have to counting on each other and would enjoy or suffer the same fate.
  19. I've thought about this a lot. More than I should because the actual answers are out of the reach of my living room in North Dakota but I have thought about this a lot. I think the type of player that they drafted plays a role even the type of player drafted is subject to development criticism because of the 3 outcome focus we should be asking the question... where is our 3 outcome dude to play 1B. That's historically where you put the biggest of the big boppers and we have been Arraez, Solano, France the position since this regime stepped foot in the door. Morrison, Cron were just one year guys that they just kept plugging in every year with diminished talent as the years went by. In the end... I keep going back to utilization and I have a hard time shaking it. I don't have the same complaints on the pitching side of things. They are getting some results... not the results that everybody wants but I'm seeing potential, improvement and I'm seeing utilization. On the pitching side there is no choice. You can't hide any pitchers so if you are on the roster... you are going to get utililzed, you will be allowed to work through some things. It's sink or swim so they all get opportunity and I could be right or I could be wrong but it seems to be working out ok. Again not to the degree that many of us demand but you can see the development working on the mound. At the very least... We just traded a bullpen full of development for fairly decent return packages and they are not filling space with the Bundy's of the world. At least they haven't been in the past few years. On the offensive side of things... I don't see the same things at the major league level. I see screwing around. Trying to Frankenstein a roster together. I see all left handed hitters strip mined for parts. Endless string of cheap one year vets filling holes that teams like Milwaukee and Cleveland utilize to the tiny-est degree. Outside of Arraez and Jeffers... I see nothing successfully developed to a value level that they could acquire something decent in a trade. Maybe some points can be rewarded for Castro... otherwise it is just question marks and failures since covid and perhaps longer. It's a pile of diminished value instead of increased value. Larnach Strip mined for parts, Kirilloff strip mined for parts, Gordon failed, Rooker very succussful after basically being given away to complete a trade. Miranda failed, Celestino OMG, Lewis a big question mark at this point, Julien strip mined for parts heading toward failure, Wallner strip mined for parts. Martin and Lee are incomplete yet and firmly question marks at this point, Keaschall looking amazing so far. Still has to continue performing to really remove the question mark. I may have missed some but that's 15 players run through the filters over the past 5 years. 3 Per Year on average in an organization that has to produce an average of at least 5 a year (Including pitching) just to maintain a budget that allows them to offer bigger and better free agents. What are the results... 3 out of 15... Maybe 4 are making anyone comfortable at the moment. It's a big stinking problem. And I have seen continually... from those who publish such things... A highly ranked minor league system year after year that just keeps crashing and breaking against the side of the major league wall making it necessary to sign Ty France and play him every day like he's Bryce Harper.
  20. I agree with this 100%. The following research doesn't carry a lot of value due to the absence of context such as injuries, talent level and other factors. However... down and dirty, pulled quickly, here are some Pirate utilization numbers. 2025 Ages of the Top 5 AB's: 30, 38, 26, 30 and 37. He was fired in May so this is would be more reflective of Don Kelly utilization. 2024 Ages of the Top 5 AB's 29, 25, 37, 26 and 29 2023 Ages of the Top 5 AB's 28, 24, 26, 36 and 30 2022 Ages of the Top 5 AB's 27. 25, 26, 30 and 23. 2021 Ages of the Top 5 AB's 26, 27, 29, 31 and 24. The best years by record during this Shelton stretch was 2024 and 2023... If that matters since they were also rans every year. Again... the research doesn't mean much but it appears that Shelton was handling younger talent. I take that as a positive. All in All... My opinion... the ages reflected by Pirates utilization could be a reason why their re-whatever is taking forever.
  21. Exactly... It's always the people who hire the people. No sense targeting Baldelli and there is no sense targeting Shelton now. The front office hired Baldelli and kept him employed for 7 years. If Baldelli isn't doing what the front office wants, if he is insubordinate, if he is managing in the opposite direction that the front office is trying to go. He'd have been fired by the front office much earlier. I'm surprised by the number of people on this website and around the world who are hoping out loud or even expecting that the new manager will put the front office on ignore and act like Philip Seymour Hoffman in Moneyball.
  22. I won't pretend to know what the problem is... but there is a problem. Maybe they should... restaff... overhaul the minor league system... if it's complicit. I'd like the front office to look in the mirror first. But... there is a problem that needs to be rooted out. If it were me... I'd be completely focused on improving development as quickly as possible. I would attack the development problem like the Ford Motor Company built Willow Run from the ground up in an incredibly short period time to produce B-24 Bombers needed yesterday for WWII. Will Derek help or get in the way. We will find out.
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