Riverbrian

I didn't spend a lot of wordage on it but I did have the sentence: "Teams spend millions of dollars on players that they believe will give them a competitive advantage over other teams". This implies that financial capacity is part of the competitive advantage that teams try to gain over each other. In short, paying a guy 100 million to play every day and produce below the Mendoza line negates that financial competitive advantage. Not playing that guy they are paying allows them to pave over that mistake. The financial ability to pave over these type of mistakes is one of the larger benefits of having a payroll competitive advantage. Playing that player removes that.

If less at bats and fewer innings are earned... Yes... that is what I'm saying. 😉

The impact of talent, execution and competitiveness on data and results was the point. 😀

Great post. I agree with you completely. Blood Sweat and Tears says "What goes up must come down". Much like the stock market it has to be nearly impossible to time the peaks and valleys and I'm not going to ask for that because that would be an impossible expectation. Other than to say... "Let the hot player continue". However, there has to be a limit. How long are struggles allowed to continue? How many chances are granted? I purposely didn't list names but we've all seen what Pagan for example has done since 2020 and what he was allowed to continue doing in 2022 and he's back. Kepler since 2020. Gallo since the trade in 2020. We saw what Dylan Bundy and Chris Archer was allowed to continue doing in 2022. In the Randy Dobnak thread I brought up my dissatisfaction of continuing to hand the ball to Martin Perez in 2019. Logan Morrison playing every day in 2018 is still my poster child for all of this. Logan Morrison playing every day erases any slight competitive advantage that many are working hard to gain.

The Twins employ a large group of analysts who gather metrics large and small and they do this in order to gain a competitive advantage over competition. Every major league team employs large groups of people who gather metrics large and small and because all teams do it... this minimizes the completive advantage that can be gained by any team. The Twins employ scouts who gather intel on opposing players and they gather intel on their own players and they do this to gain a competitive advantage over competition. Every major league team employs scouts who gather intel on players and because all teams do it... it minimizes the competitive advantage that can be gained by any team. The Twins employ coaches... lots of them who work with players with the purpose of making them better than past metrics. They do this to gain a competitive advantage over competition. Every major league team employs coaches... lots of them and because all teams do it... it minimized the competitive advantage that can be gained by any team. Teams spend millions of dollars on players that they believe will give them a competitive advantage over other teams. All of the money spent and all of the highly paid front office personnel, analysts, scouts, coaches working for a competitive advantage that amounts to: 1.8 runs per game from North Pole to South Pole. 1. Dodgers averaged 5.2 runs per game 10. Brewers averaged 4.5 runs per game 20. Orioles averaged 4.2 runs per game 30. Tigers averaged 3.4 runs per game. 1.9 hits per game from North Pole to South Pole. 1. Blue Jays averaged 9.0 hits per game 10. Cardinals averaged 8.6 hits per game 20. Orioles averaged 7.9 hits per game 30. A's averaged 7.1 hits per game 2.2 runs allowed per game from North Pole to South Pole. 1. Dodgers averaged 3.2 runs allowed per game 10. Padres averaged 4.1 runs allowed per game 20. White Sox averaged 4.4 runs allowed per game 30. Rockies averaged 5.4 runs allowed per game The Objective of all of this is to produce More Wins and Less Losses. The Win/Loss Differential from North Pole to South Pole is: 1. Dodgers 6.8 Wins - 3.2 Losses per 10 games. 10. Padres 5.5 Wins - 4.5 losses per 10 games 20. Marlins 4.3 Wins - 5.7 Losses per 10 games 30. Nationals 3.4 Wins - 6.6 losses per 10 games For those who have read through. Why did I type all of this? The reason was... to simply illustrate how thin the margins are. To remind people how many people in each organization are working together to produce what amounts to slight advantages against tough competition. And then I do so to make this statement. If you allow players to struggle and remain in the lineup because you believe that they should be better but are not playing better. You NEGATE ALL of the limited competitive advantage gained from all of the analytics, coaching, scouting in one fell swoop Rendering it nearly pointless.

My assumption is that Perez is one of those pitchers that looks good in the data... Spin Rates and such. He looks like the guy who should be tossing a sub three ERA so teams keep throwing him out there until he becomes it. The Twins, The Red Sox and the Rangers have all rolled the dice on him since 2018 despite never really having decent numbers on the mound. There has to be a reason for that and I assume it is because he looks like someone who should be a good pitcher. Yeah, he was great with the Rangers last year. Fantastic actually and they sent forth a him a qualifying offer as a result. However, he wasn't that good in 2021 or 2020 with the Red Sox. 2019 with the Twins He struggled in 2018, 2017 and was just average in 2016 and 2015. You give a guy enough chances, he might eventually work out but that is a lot of failure until he has that year like last year and if it takes that long you have to wonder if it was worth it. In the meantime, you are getting poor results and keeping someone else off the mound. It wasn't worth it for the Twins since he was a healthy scratch for the playoffs and that mound time should have been allocated to someone like Dobnak who was hanging Zero's in September when we needed zeroes hung. Dobnak may not have worked out but you would have a better idea with some more mound time.

In 2018... Martin Perez... Came off the disabled list in July and he threw 85.1 innings (15 starts - 23 games pitched) for the Texas Rangers. His ERA was 6.22. In 2019 the Twins signed Martin Perez to a 4 million 1 year contract with a team option for 2020 at 7.5M. He threw 165.1 Innings for the Twins... 29 starts and he produced a 5.12 ERA. The 5.12 ERA was actually worse than 5.12 because Martin Perez had a decent April and May that year. During his first 58 Innings his ERA checked in at 2.95 and we thought... "What a great pickup". From May 30, 2019 to his last start in a Twins uniform on September 29th. He Tacked on 107.1 innings to the tune of a 6.29 ERA. The Bloom was off the rose and this club was getting ready for the playoffs. Perez kept his spot in the rotation right until the final day of the season and then he was not placed on the playoff roster. These thoughts of Martin Perez infect my thoughts of Randy Dobnak to this current day. The Twins gave Perez every single start until the playoffs when they decided Naaah... Can't trust him. The Twins held Dobnak out of the starting rotation until the playoffs saying... Naaah... Can't trust him. Then BOOM Randy Dobnak is starting game two out of necessity. The Twins said that we didn't believe in you in September but in Game Two of the playoffs... well... we believe in you now! Dobnak should have spent September getting the innings that Perez got so he could show he could pitch in the majors or show that he can't. Waiting until game two of the playoffs to make that decision was a terrible decision. My thoughts of Martin Perez as it relates to Randy Dobnak are my current fears about Joey Gallo as it relates to Trevor Larnach or Nick Gordon or Matt Wallner. Will those who are demonstrably struggling in real life be allowed to continue to struggle while others who might or might not struggle are not allowed to demonstrate? Precedent has been set with this front office with Perez and Dobnak. Perez was supposed to be better I assume but he wasn't and they forced it... they gave Perez every second of the clock to show that he was better and he failed badly enough that they couldn't put him on the playoff roster. Will they do this again? What was the Topic again? Oh Yeah... Dobnak... He was good in 2019... Don't know if he still is.

I will be giving him a chance. I will give him my support. Hope he knocks the cover off the ball. This support will be 100% but it does have opt-outs that I can use every 30 days.

I feel 100% the opposite. I worry about the offense. I am happy with the pitching. It's got to be hard for the front office to please both of us simultaneously. 😄

It's good to question these things. Let's look at three guys who played a similar amount of games in 2022, didn't play much and hit terribly when they rarely played. Jermaine Palacios 25 games - OPS+ 19 bWAR -0.7 Miguel Sano 29 Games - OPS+ 3 bWAR -0.8 Mark Contreras 27 Games - OPS+ 24 bWar - 0.0 What did Mark Contreras do in those 49 defensive chances in the OF (less than 2 a game) to avoid the negative dash in front of his bWAR number? Was it one catch in a low probability zone? Was it seven catches in a low probability zone?

I was being flippant with my implication of flippancy.

I was half joking about the middle finger but since you took me seriously... I do agree that Dylan Bundy was a known and proven quantity... Career ERA of 4.74 and we got a 4.89 in 2022. WHIP 1.30 and we got a 1.27 in 2022. Fielding Independent Pitching 4.68 which suggests that those numbers were indeed sustainable. Since Smeltzers 5.23 FIP in 2022 is the stat you have chosen to highlight for sustainability. Dylan Bundy had a FIP of 5.51 in 2021 the year before the Twins signed him. I guess that suggests he was better than the 6.06 ERA he produced in 2021. I'm not making a case for Smeltzer remaining in our rotation this year because I've got 10 pitchers on the current staff that I like better. I'm not even making a case that Smeltzer should have been a guy that we staffed up when putting together the roster in the spring of 2022. But I am saying this... These guys want a major league job and they'd like to keep that job and make it a career... this is the dream... this is what they work for... they want the ball on that hill, they want an organization that believes in them and gives them a chance and they will report to AAA to keep the dream alive but AAA is not where they want to be when they are so close that they can taste it. Smeltzer would have loved the opportunity that Bundy got. Smeltzer I assume would like a multi-year deal that provides income that can set up a family for generations. There is a lot riding on the line for players that we all flippantly call AAAA. Who knows but it would take incredible character to sit and watch Bundy and Archer get the ball time and time again knowing that your performance was better without frustration. It's quite likely that Smeltzer did the smart thing as he departed for Miami but put yourself in his shoes and then consider that I was half joking.

You are correct. It will be a mess for awhile. but in the end a much better modern product will emerge from the rubble. It will be hard for an old guy like me who can easily turn on channel 623 for the Twins and Wild. I expect a new fee or 7 coming my way to watch my teams from my couch. but yeah, this will be messy im the meantime.

This is a great point. If he is the same hitter as has been the past two years (Same goes for Gallo). We wouldn't want him to replace someone hurt or ineffective because you'd just be replacing ineffective with ineffective. You would cut him much like we cut Duffey last year. Give someone else the chance to help us or develop if we are beyond help. The only way I see it working is if he is productive with the bat and he needs to earn it after two years. If he doesn't... he shouldn't be here in August. Another good point. Last year in August and September we had decent OF defense with Cave, Celestino and Kepler while 5 through 9 (including Sanchez) in the batting order was as offensively unproductive as offensively unproductive can be. This 2 win player measurement helped Cleveland run right past us.

Good Article - Fair Assessment in my opinion. I've been hard on Kepler and I don't want to be hard on him anymore. I truly want him to succeed and I hope he does in a Twins uniform... we can really use a Max Kepler playing above average. If I had Kepler - I wouldn't trade him If I didn't have Kepler - I wouldn't trade for him. We are not in the current position to be skinny with our outfield options. I'm all for giving him the opportunity to win the job... I am against simply giving him the job. It's easy to look at all of these options and say let's clear some people out of there but we need the depth and the competition just to find the players who will get the job done assuming that some might not. Don't want to choose wrong and be left with players who are not hitting with no place to turn. Let them compete and then clear out the ones who lose the competition.

The Brewers didn't trade for an ace. The Brewers developed not one but two aces. Corbin Burnes was a 4th round pick. He was the 21st ranked prospect in the Brewers system in 2017. He was the 69th ranked prospect in baseball one slot behind Fernando Romero in 2018. He was a complete nightmare in 2019 with an 8 plus ERA in the majors and an 8 plus ERA at AAA. Nobody was thinking ACE when 2020 rolled around. In 2020 he found the ACE light switch. No Trades were necessary.

Me To The expectations that I'm picking up on is coming from posters and bloggers.

Yeah... I get that... I'm very pro lots of options in case of injury or struggles. I am very anti Eggs in one Basket in case of injury or struggles. I explained it in a post earlier. It's the expectation that a healthy Kirilloff is going to replace what we lost with Arraez is the weight. Take a load off Arraez... Take a load for free... Take a load off Arraez... And... And... And... You put the load... put the load right on Kirilloff. Robbie Robertson and Levon Helm are better at this sort of thing than I am. 😀

I was sleeping in med school so I can only hope that the procedure went well and that the decision makers are getting accurate reports. 😀 Who knows... We also are hearing reports that they are toe-dipping into Gurriel discussions... who knows how much toe they are dipping and what that means in regards to their confidence level of each individual player on the existing roster. Right now... I'm just reacting to articles and individual posts that seem to suggest that Kirilloff is going knock the ball around the park with the greatest of ease if healthy. I'd be happier with: A. Arraez and Kirilloff together in 2023 or B. Replacement for Arraez with Kirilloff in 2023 I'm nervous about C. Kirilloff making up for what we lost with Arraez. C is a lot of weight is being placed on his shoulders.

I'm not that concerned about who puts on the big glove. Farmer can play 3B and Miranda can play 1B on day one if needed. Gordon can play some 3B to if needed. It's the thought that the offense lost in the Arreaz trade can be easily mitigated by a healthy Kirilloff. That's the incredible weight being placed upon young Alex's shoulders.

The weight being placed on the shoulders of Alex Kirilloff is off the charts. I hope everyone is right and I am able to watch him be what we hope he will be.

Devin Smeltzer threw 140 innings for the Minnesota Twins. 9 Wins - 4 Losses Career ERA: 3.99 and he made the major league minimum and was never considered for a spot in the rotation of his own. Meanwhile, Dylan Bundy threw 140 innings for the Minnesota Twins in 2022. 8 Wins - 8 Losses: ERA 4.89. We paid him 4 million plus the 1 million buyout and he was never in danger of losing his spot in the rotation. If I was Devin... It would be hard not to extend a middle finger as I left for Miami.

They were absolutely meat and potatoes for our favorite team last year. I shudder to think about how bad the offense would have been 2nd Half without them. Miranda led the team in AB's post all-star break. Gordon was 5th in AB's post all-star break. Let's look at that list (2nd half OPS) with an eye toward 2023: #1 - Miranda (OPS .759) - Back #2 - Correa (OPS .866) - Back... Almost Gone... But Back #3 - Arraez (OPS .714) - Gone #4 - Urshela (OPS .828) - Gone #5 - Gordon (OPS .780) - Back #6 - Sanchez (OPS .620) - Gone #7 - Cave (OPS .644) - Gone #8 - Celestino (OPS .582) - Back (better be in AAA to start the season) #9 - Kepler (OPS .467) - Back Also receiving votes: Polanco, Buxton, Garlick, Wallner, Kirilloff. Jeffers We will need them again in 2023. Farmer, Vazquez, Gallo and Taylor are the additions to that pile of 2nd half OPS.

When I went in for mine one of these was sitting nearby. I was about to ask about it but he asked me to count backwards from a 100... I remember saying wait wait and then I woke up in a different room.

Options The answer is options. Ober goes down for the crime of having options... therefore, he can be stashed for depth while Gray, Mahle and Maeda can't be stashed. We will need that depth because the odds of 5 starters making it through the season are slim to none. If Ober stays healthy and productive... we will see a lot of him this year.