Riverbrian

Wonderful News. Hey Rocco, Go for back to back!!!

When I was in Grand Rapids,Michigan our station had the Western Michigan football broadcast contract and PJ Fleck was the head coach. Seeing him up close is kind of hard to explain but the guy is pure motivation 24/7. When he looks you in the eye you feel motivation. When he shakes your hand it's a sincere hand shake. When he speaks he's like a preacher on octane.He can find inspiration in a ham sandwich. He has a full library of metaphors that he can whip out at any second for any situation. You don't have to wonder if he will be on... he's on. It's hard to explain... There are impressive people in this world and then there is another level of impressive that very few people qualify for. PJ Fleck is one of those people. I know it sounds like I want to marry him or something. However, I'm just saying that I remember thinking to myself, if there is anyone who can convince a recruit to come to a MAC conference school over Alabama... This is the guy. He doesn't really sell the school, or the program, he sells the recruit to the recruit. He will tell the recruit that he can accomplish what he wants to accomplish and he does it with a sincerity. I've seen it... I was sold. I remember thinking that he was sure to contacted by a Power 5 school and there would be no way he wouldn't ace the interview. I figured it was just a matter of time and how about that... it was the Gophers who snagged him. I'm still in a state of shock over the win today. It's been a long time for the U of M. But, at the same time, I am not surprised that Fleck got the Gophers to this point. There is still work to do for this season but if anyone wonders if this is sustainable into the future. It is absolutely sustainable. I'd bet an Iowa or Wisconsin fan a large sum of money that the Gophers are here to stay.

You pursue both to increase your odds of signing one. You don't place all eggs in one basket. Actually... the Twins should pursue 45 to increase the odds of getting 4. If the question is who is better between the two. Give me Bumgarner. He's left handed, he's young, his career is far from over and it's been a great career so far.

JW: At the time of the trade in 2018 Smeltzer was a AA reliever and finished a AA reliever. He had no innings in AAA. RB: It was the Twins front office... not me who called up Devin Smeltzer on May 28th after 54.2 Innings with an ERA of 1.15 as a starter in AAA. It was Devin Smeltzer who did not suck after that occured. JW: Isn’t it possible that every inning he threw in the minors last year was key to his development and any success in the majors? RB: I hope so and I hope every inning he threw in the majors was key to his development as well. JW: How many of the 14 starts in AAA do you suggest the Twins should have used for major league data rather than AAA development? Half of them? RB: Are you asking me for an arbitrary number? I won't provide one. It's actually a condescending question. If you have to ask a question like this... you don't respect me enough to care what I type anyway. I want Smeltzer to increase his sample size to determine if his adequate major league performance is sustainable. I want Perez to decrease his sample size because it had been determined that his major league performance was not adequate. JW: Would that have made a difference in whatever data they can collect in the majors that they can’t collect in the minors? RB: YES JW: What data would be collected? RB: Can he sustain this performance? Is he the same pitcher after 70 innings of data? Will the league adjust to him... can he adjust to those adjustments. Is he better than Martin Perez? Is he better than Randy Dobnak or Lewis Thorpe? When I say Data... I'm talking about sample size. I don't think 16 innings are enough major league data to hand him a playoff roster spot. That's what I'm saying. I'm talking about the need to increase his sample size. I'm talking about... he has pitched well through 16 innings... maybe we should let him pitch a 17th inning. JW: It is the same ball. RB: It's not the same hitters. Was this statement meant to be as condescending as it seems? JW: The same machines collect all of the data on his pitches. RB: Yeah... I'm really starting to think that condescension was absolutely intended. JW: They have a huge database to match those pitches against similar pitches in the major leagues. RB: The same database that didn't allow Nick Anderson a chance and the same database that kept Martin Perez in the rotation right up to the day they determined that he wouldn't get a playoff spot. JW: His pitches aren’t going to behave differently from the major league mound. RB: The hitters behave differently... I assume that major league hitters are a more accurate representation of actual major league hitters than the AAA variety. Therefore more accurate information to answer the following questions 1. Is Devin Smeltzer better than Martin Perez right now. 2. Can we move Martin Perez to the bullpen? 3. Should we give Devin Smeltzer a playoff roster spot? 4. Do they protect Smeltzer or Gonsalves or Nick Anderson with a 40 man roster spot before the rule 5 draft. 5. Do we have to find another free agent starting pitcher in the off season? 6. Should we find an opening day roster spot for him in 2020? JW: Dobnak was even further away. Development matters. RB: From August 28th to September 14 he threw 8 innings while on the major league roster. What kind of development are we talking about here? Kyle Gibson had to get sick and Pineda had to get suspended to get 3 actual starts for Dobnak before getting the ball for Game Two. Perez kept his job throughout. JW: I am with you on the give a shot to a 28 year old Anderson vs. Belisle failure. RB: Thank You JW: Not here though. It was a failure of not acquiring a better major league starter than Perez. RB: I agree... it was a failure of not acquiring a better major league starter than Perez... first and foremost. It was also a failure of assuming that the performance of Perez couldn't be bettered by almost anyone? It was a failure to give important major league development innings to players to help determine who would be placed on the playoff roster, who would be utilized heavier during the playoffs. The guy they gave the innings to... was not selected for the playoffs. It will help determine the real tough 40 man roster decisions they must make ahead of the rule 5. Additional MAJOR LEAGUE development innings increasing the major league sample size would help them determine if they should sign or trade for 4 FA starters or 3 during the off-season or can they actually consider giving either of these guys an opening day roster spot. All while, hopefully pitching better than Martin Perez did to actually improve 2019 performance. Win-Win. JW: If anything Smeltzer and Dobnak are development successes that maybe would have benefited from more time developing in the minors last year. RB: If anything... Once they didn't acquire a starter at the trade deadline, the front office was fully committed to the roster they had. This means that someone from the organization has to take over the role of being better than Martin Perez. They didn't have the time to develop more in the minor leagues once they didn't make a trade. It's now showtime... Martin Perez was bad and needed to be upgraded. Kyle Gibson was fighting E Coli which they should have been aware of? And pitchers getting injured are a regular occurrence in the majors. The very second the Twins didn't acquire Stroman or Ray or Syndergaard, was the very second they should have been searching for who will fill the role that Stroman, Ray or Syndergaard would have played from our own organization. That role was be better than Martin Perez. That role was who can we count on in the playoffs.

I have nothing but respect for the umpires... I'm not one of those people who call out umpires by name and judge them individually. As a matter of fact, it is my opinion, that MLB umpires are absolutely incredible at their jobs. The job is impossible to perform perfectly so you won't hear me criticizing them when they don't. I want the umpire to have the tools necessary to perfect their performance. Each missed call is random and potentially critical to the result of the game. The possibility of missed strike or ball call impacting DIRECTLY the result of Game 7 in a World Series is absolutely real... It is just a matter of timing. I've used this example frequently because it stung me personally: 2017... Wild Card Game between the Twins and Yankees. The Twins jumped on Severino for 3 runs in the 1st inning. Santana was no doubt, shaky in the bottom of the first. He walked Gardner followed by a Judge single and the Yankees had 1 and 3rd with nobody out. However... he got Sanchez to pop out with Gardner remaining at 3B and then it happened: He had two strikes on Gregorious. He threw a pitch in the strike zone that Gregorious looked at... It should have been strike three with two outs... Instead it was called a ball and on the very next pitch Didi parked it and the game is now tied 3-3. I don't blame the umpire and I recognize the role that Santana's performance played in the equation. I also understand it was the first inning with 8 more innings of random events yet to take place. However, that missed call was a significant game changing moment, because everything looks different if the Twins enter the 2nd Inning with 3-0 lead instead of a 3-3 tie. Now... take that same real-life scenario that happened to us and place it in the 9th inning of Game 7 of the World Series. What if the ump missed a strike call with two strikes and two outs on Bregman and he blasts a game winning home run off Hudson on the next pitch. You can't say this won't happen, you can't quote me odds that it will happen... it can absolutely happen. It's just a matter of unfortunate timing. The Nationals losing in that fashion would be a nightmare unless you lived in Houston. Joe Torre would have to stand there in front of throngs of media to defend a guy that was simply tasked with a doing a job, that was impossible to begin with. We'd have a system in place the following season, if it's ready or not. A full year of baseball down to the tubes because it was decided by a human element call. Hell, the U.S. congress would probably pass legislation making strike zone automation law while taking away the Anti-Trust Exemption if it happened to the Nationals. My strong feelings toward this subject have nothing to do with lack of respect toward the umpires, I think they are incredible. I'm saying we have the technology to eliminate the human mistakes, the human mistakes influence the final results of games. So, improve the system, get it done and utilize it as soon as possible. We don't need any more proof that the final results are indeed influenced by these random missed calls when pitch framers like Jason Castro are paid 3 years and 24 million dollars. Catchers are compensated for their ability to fool umpires. This sentence tells you all you need to know. Umpires can be fooled. Teams employ those who are best at fooling them so they've seen the statistical evidence and a value for the ability has been assessed and paid.

The Twins should have gathered more major league data last year from Smeltzer and Dobnak instead of gathering all the data they gathered from Perez instead That data would be helpful when trying to decide who pitches in the playoffs in 2019 and who gets an opening day rotation spot in 2020. It's risky to hand Smeltzer or Dobnak an opening day job. I'd look for 4 pitchers from outside the organization so those two can compete for next man up.

Catchers are compensated for their ability to fool umpires. That sentence alone can't be beaten in any argument for the human element.

Who knows but these players know it's a business. One trip through the arbitration process will show them that. If they don't learn it that way, his professional representation will teach him. His business is Byron Buxton. He will look out for his best interests and if the the Twins offer him an extension that is better than what he believes he will make in free agency... he'll sign it. If they don't... he will become a free agent. Turning down a better offer out of spite is bad business. Excepting a lesser offer out of loyalty is also bad business.

I don’t believe Bryant will win. Game over.

That’s what I like about you Don. You are likely the only one interested in my opinion. That’s what my wife tells me anyway. As a fan I want my star players in my uniform for as long as possible so I’ll take the extra year. That is where things are on an even playing field. Extra years are not only longer time to benefit from talent but they are also increased trade value during their service time because of the extra year of control. Once they hit free agency we are immediately at a competitive disadvantage so the longer that can be delayed is better for me. In a nutshell... as long as teams control rights to players... I’d just as soon control them as long as possible even though I am against teams controlling rights period. I’m complicated ain’t I.

If that’s the case. I don’t advocate immediate implementation. However, I do advocate priority attention to the improvement of a system for implication as soon as possible. LOL... I’m sick of pitch framing stats.

Agreed but it happens and automation takes that away. The players will learn to hit that curveball in the dirt before it hits the dirt once it starts getting called.

I'm currently indifferent to service time manipulation. I don't have to have an opinion on it. It's there and all teams use it to their advantage... I don't want my team "not taking" advantage of that advantage while all the other teams are... because that would end up being a disadvantage to my team and therefore me. Keep in mind, I hold no illusions that players will give a preferred team discount when they hit free agency because we were nice (or fair) to the player. It's a business and they have had no right until they hit free agency. If you want to know my true deep down feelings... it will throw you for a loop. It's so radical that the when I post it, the tomatoes will be thrown my direction. But here goes anyway. I would abolish the Rule 4 draft. Let the players sign with teams of their choosing at age 18, just like you and I do with our employment and let the market sort itself out. A young player can decide if he wants to sign with the Yankees or Marlins or attend LSU. The Orioles might need a SS, however a young SS that is third on the depth chart in Houston can't apply for that job because the Astros own his rights. This will create that environment that you seek... the best players playing without future considerations complicating a fairly simple decision. Those future complications are only in place because of the CBA. Which is an agreed upon document between two entities trying to get the larger slice of the pie. The 18 year old baseball player has no representation. I'm not as pro-owner as I seem in my previous post... I consider myself more pro-player despite my previous post. I think that teams controlling the fates of players past their prime is that real crime and this is the case for the majority of the players. Service time manipulation? I don't care...it was collectively bargained and it only involves a small percentage of the work force. If a player is good enough to have his service time manipulated, he is already young and most likely able to hit free agency before 30 even with the extra year. I don't care because this small minority will be fine. In the case of Buxton. You call him Elite (Defensively)... I agree that he is elite defensively but his total game has not been and 3 years have burned waiting for Elite. I want the Extra Year because he will become Elite and we will have no time to enjoy it. The extra year is for me so I can enjoy it. In the case of Bryant... of course it was manipulation, I don't care about spin... people spin all the time... but you place too much faith in the "Good Faith" wording in the CBA. A good lawyer can argue that his plane was delayed for 17 days to get out of that one. I'm standing here saying that I believe the Rule 4 draft should be abolished out of fairness to the players but since it won't be... the CBA sets the rules and guidelines to be followed and it has been agreed upon. If I was a GM or Owner, I'm using those rules and guidelines and getting the most out of them. Meaning my top prospect will hang tight for 17 days to gain the extra year because a full year in their prime is lopsidedly better than 17 days of rookie ball. The owners interest at this point aligns closer to mine... So here I am.

Wisconsin will never go for that!

If the ball enters the zone. The ball can be hit. The Backdoor slider that never reaches the backdoor yet called a strike is impossible to hit.

If you drain the farm you'll have to go to the market for your ingredients. You'll have no choice. The Brewers are now critically low on Barley and Hops but they had a couple of impressive keg parties.

As always... you have talent Spycake. My research consisted of one article that I googled using "Evan Longoria Service time Manipulation" between bites during my lunch hour. It still stands that we are 11 years between Longoria and Vlad Jr.

Lot to cover here. Right off the bat... I'm a fan and I represent myself. I don't have representation at the CBA negotiation table. I'm the one drifting in the wind here. My happiness is in the hands of other people, I don't get a vote or representation at that table. I'm not going to lose sleep over a year of service time and I'm especially not going to lose sleep when I know that the agreement was negotiated by two power brokers, skilled at such things, while looking across the table at each other and not at gun point. Especially, Especially when I know that both sides are looking out for their interests... and not mine. Neither the owners or the players care if the price of a ticket goes up. They are negotiating to get the most money in their pockets, why am I taking sides? I'm not because NEITHER resemble Mother Theresa. The player can hit .189 and still collect the 30 million. The Owners can keep players under control until they are past their prime. These things were negotiated. I didn't get a vote. Both sides understand it is strictly business by now... the innocence is gone. If the business side of things hasn't hit them in the eyes in year one... it will certainly cold cock them once they sit down with the Arbitrator as the team tears them apart to save a couple of million bucks. So what's my interest? I want the players who suck... gone and I want the players with skill playing for my team as long as possible. According to the CBA, to which I have no representation, I have to tolerate all bad contracts, but my good contracts have a shelf life. I have to put up with players getting paid and throwing 85MPH and I have to put up with players struggling for 3 years of precious service time so he can get good right before he says goodbye. My interest is very uncomplicated. I want the players I want, playing for my team as long as possible. That is what is best for me.I am simply not concerned if Acuna makes 600K or 27 Million or if he reaches free agency at 26 or 27 or 32. I will trade 17 days of rookie ball in April for a full season in a players prime every single time. You can't compare 17 days in April to a full year in a players prime without recognizing how lopsided of a no-brainer decision it is. I am not bound by slight of hand or public relations. I don't have to say that the reason is defensive work, the player isn't ready or he needs rest for better health with a straight face. I can scream from the mountain tops without reservation or apology. "I WANT THE EXTRA YEAR" for my benefit and I deserve it. And the negotiated CBA states that I can have it. Did the players union negotiate a bad deal? Yes... they failed to see the future but at the time, they got what they wanted. They didn't see the Ivy league front offices doing cost per analysis down the road. It changed everything and the next CBA is going to be a nightmare when the players union tries to get things back in their favor. And once again... I won't have representation at the next CBA negotiation table either. Meaning... when they go into a lock out or strike... I'll have to sit there and take it.

You can't state that my wanting "an extra year of control" is not "relevant" and then state that holding players back is "not one that is good for the FANS or the players". However, if you wish to limit the conversation to your defined narrow scope of considerations. OK... I'm game... Let's start with the "Slippery Slope" that you mention. John Danks, Phil Hughes, Evan Longoria, Jordan Zimmerman are possible examples of "Service Time Manipulation" from 2007, 2008 and 2009. If you consider that it has been 12 years time from 2007 to 2019 and the players union just got around to using Kris Bryant as a "Test Case". Can you better define how slippery or slopee the slope actually is? If you want to cling your hopes on the vague usage of "Good Faith" in the CBA language. Go ahead but it's kind of like using a dog leash to stop a tanker at sea.

Yeah... You can't alter the future!!!

It's a business and these are big boys. The Twins will be alright and Byron Buxton will be alright. From my perspective. I wanted the extra year and I got it. That's all I need. I don't need to pile on the organization or Byron any further. If he becomes what he could become... that extra year will be nice. If he doesn't come around the extra year will not matter. I believe it will eventually matter. He didn't snap... He answered a question. I have no problem with players expressing themselves. He competed for the Twins this year. He isn't talking about it. It's OK to give him a pass.

It has been the only thing I’ve stated consistently. I want the extra year. I’m a fan and I’m looking out for MY best interest. I’m not running a charity here.

(True Story) Back in May of 2016... Brian Dozier was looking absolutely horrible (along with the entire team) but Dozier was capable of so much more. His extended slump had brought his batting average below .200 and I couldn't tolerate it anymore so the only thing I posted on Twinsdaily was something like: "BRIAN DOZIER -- FIX HIM!!!" The next day, Terry Ryan talks to the press and he is quoted saying... "We've got to FIX him". Dozier was benched the next day... for like a day and then he went on a home run tear... Hit like 80 home runs from June to September. Your Welcome everyone. I did that. (True Story)

I believe in Buxton and I wanted the extra year of service time because I believe in Buxton. I’m not paying attention to any other reasons being floated. None of it matters in a lost season. The extra year gained is huge to anyone who believes in Buxton and are waiting for that big Buxton year. Bryant can file all the grievances he wants. He won’t win... the agreement was bargained collectively. We got an extra year of Buxton. I’m hoping to enjoy it.

You said: "Those saying the money doesn't matter" I replied: "Every team has a budget". I was agreeing with you. The money does matter. My main point is that his price has gone from 4 million to 8 million and he priced himself into waivers at 4 million a year prior.