Riverbrian

I won't name names. That up to the front office to apply the information they have on those spreadsheets but this is a great post.

I am a big fan of the 2018 deadline because they didn't stand still. They cashed in the expiring contracts and moved in a defined direction. I agree that it was a jump start. They announced to me that this was a new Twins front office and I liked it and I still do. It's time for the jump that follows that jump start. The prospects either produce in 2020 or they are traded for someone who will produce. This team ain't the same 2018 team.

Stability is extremely important and you can't stabilize unless they have stable top level needle moving talent. Teams have basically 3 ways of acquiring needle moving top level talent. Sign it Trade for it or Develop it Signing or trading requires cooperation from others outside of the organization and this is beyond the teams control. The free agent must agree to sign and may want to live in New Jersey. The GM of the team you are trading with may not want what you are offering and has the right to insist on a larger package beyond what you are willing to pay. We have learned this past trade deadline and this if off-season that simply acquiring a top level arm is difficult. This leaves development. Of the three options, Development is one option that the Twins have the most control over. But that development is made much harder to accomplish when secondary or tertiary free agent or trade acquisition options are preferred. They didn't trade for Stroman or Boyd or whoever last trade deadline. They must produce their own. They didn't sign Wheeler or Bumgarner or Cole or Strasburg this off-season. They must produce their own. They should have started last August. They didn't... They must start now. We can't be looking for 3 arms again next year. We have seen the result this off-season and last trade deadline... we don't wan't to do this again. If you are not trading the talent... USE THE TALENT.

The answer to the question asked in the Article title is Yes. The Yes answer is: An upper level talent with at least 2 years of control. The cycle has to stop. As it stands today... we will be once again searching for at least 3 arms next off-season to replenish the rotation for 2021. Acquiring an upper level arm (or any starting pitcher) for one year only will not stop this cycle and will also get in the way of major league development of guys who can truly stop the cycle with multiple years of control. You got to take steps to get off of this merry-go-round. Last July 31st... the team was probably playoff bound and in need of a starting pitcher to attempt to bolster the off-season roster. Perez was in a deep funk at the time, Gibson had E Coli issues that they had to know about, not to mention, the historical high probability that any pitcher is a candidate for an injury. They also knew in July that they would have to either re-sign or acquire at least 3 arms in the off-season. I think it is a safe assumption that they tried to land a talented starter (preferably with at least 2 years control) at the trade deadline because they surely knew about the need due to the issues I list above. However, they did not land a starter and with a clear need for one, the only assumption I can make is that the prospect price was too high. I completely trust the front office to makes these types of determinations and support the decision to not make a trade because of the prospect cost. However... I've said this often. The very second they decided the price was too high and didn't acquire a starter. They fully committed to the prospects that they chose to keep instead because the need didn't go away and the problem has to be addressed. When they chose the prospects... they chose the solution. Now that they are committed to these prospects... and they are... by their own choice. The prospects must be counted on to stop the cycle of needing 3 or more starting pitchers every off season. Whoever it may be... Dobnak, Smeltzer, Graterol, Balazovic, Duran, Alcala or Thorpe. At least 1 and hopefully 2 of them need to establish themselves THIS YEAR as major league capable and if they do... they must be allowed to continue. They can't succeed and be sent down to Rochester so a Martin Perez type performer holds a spot when the gang of five is healthy. If these guys can't hold down a MLB spot or are not given the chance to hold down a spot because Bailey with a 4.80 ERA but making 8 million keeps his job. Each of these potential prospects will see their trade value reduced accordingly and when that happens... you run the risk of these arms dying on the vine due to lack of opportunity and that also means that the club just bet on the wrong horse last July 31st when they didn't trade for a starter because the prospect price was too high. Once they don't trade the prospects, they must develop the prospects and treading water with average vets won't get it done. What I am talking about is critical in 2020. This isn't a "I hope this happens" situation.... it has to happen. We can't go into 2021 needing 3 arms again because that is treading water. Unless... the team can acquire a high end starter with at least two years of control left this off-season. because that lessens the critical immediate demand that one of these guys gets it done this year for a roster with playoff aspirations and it reduces the need from 3 to 2 starters next off-season. So the answer... is YES. High End Talent and at least 2 years of control. If they don't... Dobnak or Smeltzer or Graterol or Thorpe or Balazovic or Duran or Alcala better be the real deal in 2020. Thank You... I'll step off the box now.

Thanks for the info. Pressly was more of a general point using a specific example and not a specific point for a general example. If the system works and somebody gets clobbered with it. It could cost them money and probably did.

I agree with you. There is no way to assess the scope. I know I can't do it from my living in room in North Dakota and I'm not sure if Rob Manfred and his associates can say they have all of the potential ramifications completely understood either. It's simply too hard to do so. There are way too many tentacles that could come off of something like this that can't be quantified because of the uncertainty that clouds the air. Anything is possible, ranging from two world series titles that are now tainted, to front offices changing course due to effectiveness of the Astros organization, to other teams retooling after losses, to Yu Darvish signing for anywhere between a million dollars to who knows how many million dollars less, to the possibility of players being cut or sent down after a rough night in Houston, to Reverend Smith having to buy Gloria a soda after she won a friendly wager on the outcome of the series. All the way to Twinsdaily posters typing mean things about the Twins players involved in a May 2017, 3 game series that produced 40 Astros runs against our Twins at Target field. No idea if this scandal was functional on the road but you look at 40 runs and you gotta wonder. Ryan Pressly was tagged for 7 earned runs in that series while getting only one out. He finished the year with a 4.70 ERA over 61.1 innings. Take out those 7 runs and his ERA drops to 3.69. If his ERA was 3.69 instead of 4.70... perhaps he doesn't settle for 1.6 in his 2nd year of arbitration. I have no idea but no matter how much these guys make. The difference between 1.6 million and 1.9 million is a lot of money. I can't speak with authority because I don't know if the scheme was effective or a garbage banging waste of time. I don't know exactly when it was deployed and when it wasn't, who knows maybe it backfired a time or two. Maybe the Astros and Red Sox would have won the world series anyway. However... I can't dismiss the effectiveness with Cora involved in back to back World Series titles. As I sit here and try to decide on guilt or innocence in my mind and cause and effect in my mind... I gotta tell you... This would be a rare moment in time where two World Series titles actually doesn't look good on the cause and effect front and World Series titles used to look good in any light. And if a World Series title or two was the effect. I don't know if it was but... if it was... Yeah... it would probably cost Darvish a million or maybe a lot more in free agency. Baseball has some cleaning up to do... there is a major spill in Galveston Bay.

I remember multiple articles about the possibility of Darvish tipping his pitches as an explanation for his poor World Series Performance that year. Obviously... it can no longer be assumed that by "tipping pitches" it was something that he was doing... like holding the ball or glove in a different location or something with this new can of worms opened up. Now, I realize that Darvish got paid decently by the Cubs the following year in free agency but in consideration of that World Series performance and in consideration of the latest news out of Houston. Here's a question that no one has the answer to but...Potentially how much money do you think the Astros garbarge can banging cost Darvish in Free Agency that year? If he has a strong world series right before hitting FA... isn't it possible he gets a bigger contract?

This is exactly right. If the goal is to improve infield defense? Don't mess around, improve it. Go right to the most defensively important infield position (SS) and improve that position. You don't focus on the edges. The real reason you sign Donaldson is because he carries a special bat. Being a good defender is a really nice bonus but your infield defensive improvement isn't big enough attacking the corners. It's the Donaldson bat that demands the AAV and where he really moves the Twins needle.

Good article... I love the creative thinking and am fully supportive of anything other than being locked into past baseball conventions such as the traditional 5 man rotation. However... "Assuming a starter is acquired, a June rotation may look like Berríos-Odorizzi-Traded for starter-Pineda-Bailey-Hill, which as I mentioned before, is one too many". It is only one too many if all 5 stay healthy or all 5 perform at an above average level. The odds of these two things happening are off the charts... and if it happens... we should enjoy the moment because our ticket to the playoffs has been punched with 6 starters getting the job done leading the way.

You can also add Justin Turner, Kenley Jensen and AJ Pollack making big money in Dodger Land but here's the deal. Pederson Enrique Baez Seager Taylor Muncy Stripling Barnes Alexander Bellinger Urias Verdugo Buehler Will Smith Are all affordable great players who combine to a reasonable dollar total and allow the Dodgers to sign Kershaw to a contract like that and stay under the luxury tax. The Dodgers are doing it differently than other teams. They are not winning with the dollar bill. They are developing young talent and playing it. The current difference between the Dodgers and Twins is that the Twins are not there yet. They will have to spend a little at the moment. The Dodgers don't have to.

Whatever they need to do I'm OK with. However... I'm thinking Buxton Plus.

You could be right. I assume there is a ton of stuff inside the walls that could explain why a starter wasn't acquired that doesn't reach the public. The only thing I can do is look at what I can see and I see that a starter wasn't acquired. Why I don't know. I can only assume that you are at the mercy of meeting the other's price when you have need and competition for that need will drive the price up. However... the need for a starter didn't go away once a starter wasn't acquired. If the price was too high they had to fill that need with the options available.

Agreed... that's why I listed CF as perhaps our biggest position player need and not 1B. That's another reason why I'd rather go get a Betts instead of a Moreland.

I agree... There had to be concerns about Gibson's health because the E Coli wasn't new. There had to be concerns about.Perez's performance and the possibility of injury from any of the other 3, historically probable. How that trade deadline passed us without a starter acquisition is beyond me... but if they didn't like the prices and passed. 1 kid at a time or 2 kids at a time was no longer a consideration. It was a requirement.

I've retired from the "I want this player business". I truly want the front office to use the data they have and make sensible decisions on the players they want to add. I just want the front office to realize that they will be wrong at times I want them to react to those wrong times when they occur. With that said... I like Castellanos and I think he would be an upgrade bat who could play 1B and the occasional OF.... I think his 3B days are dead. He is the type of player that you figure it out for. But... with that said... I have retired from the "I want this player business".

I think Perez compares with Morrison when you look at his previous body of work. Morrison was at least coming off a rebound year. Perez was coming off a disaster of a year and his years prior to that disaster were not of the (I've earned a major league job) variety. Perez was a project the minute he signed with us. Now... to be fair... Perez was making everyone look like a genius until May 30th. His April and May for us was so good that I can certainly understand the temptation to try and get him back to what he was doing in April and May. However... In my opinion, there is a limit to how long you let a guy struggle and more importantly... when the wheels started coming off Perez... the front office had to know that the playoffs were indeed probable and preparations for those playoffs needed to begin. I didn't mark the Thames or Symborski articles as any kind of indicator. I was already there. In my opinion... The first date of consideration for moving Perez out of the rotation was after the all-star break. He should have never made that start on July 17th. From May 30th to July 5th he had made 7 starts totaling 37 innings. His ERA during that stretch was 6.32. Why Perez now at the all-star break? 1. His performance was clearly not good for 7 straight starts. We got something that needs correcting at the very least. 2. If the Twins were to acquire a starter at the upcoming deadline... And they needed to acquire a starter at the deadline because nobody goes through a season with only 5 starters... but back to IF the Twins. If the Twins were to acquire a starter at the deadline, it was clearly going to be Perez who would be moved out of the rotation to accommodate. Look at the healthy 5. Who makes room for Stroman... It would have been Perez. So just do it now... you don't have to wait for the trade deadline especially when he is going through a 7 start stretch with a 6.32 ERA. 3. And of course... it was the month of July when the front office went on a bullpen DFA purge releasing Mejia, Morin, Magill and Parker in 11 days from July 13th to July 24th. This is significant because we obviously needed some bullpen help after sending 4 of them packing. It was the perfect time to lessen Perez's responsibility from 6 innings to 3 or less. Let him find that April/May Cutter magic out of the pen instead of waiting for 5 days to take another stab it. OK... so the All-Star Break didn't happen... I stated last July that moving Perez at that time was the move but.. OK... it didn't happen. The next window for making the move was obvious. At least to me. August 1st. After the deadline passed and the Twins did not acquire starting pitching. They had no choice... they had to find the guy from their system and they had to do it now. No team is going to go through a season with the same 5 guys in the rotation. Once they didn't acquire Stroman (For Example). The Team had to develop it's own Stroman (For example). Just because they didn't acquire Stroman doesn't mean the need went away. The need was still there so they needed to get to immediate work finding our version of Stroman. Every passing day after August 1st that Perez remained in the rotation was a repeated daily mistake. Every day after August 1st that they were not feverishly trying to figure out who they should turn to between Dobnak, Smeltzer, Thorpe or Kohl Stewart was a repeated daily mistake. Even if I could justify them not making the move August 1st (Which I can't) as they desperately clung to Perez and desperately avoided Smeltzer, Dobnak, Thorpe or whoever. On August 2nd he gave up 5 runs in 5 innings of work against the Royals and then again on August 7th... he gave up 7 earned runs in 6 innings against the Braves. The articles you mention came out August 11th and 12. His ERA from May 30th to those articles was 6.61 over 64 innings. He should have never been allowed to make that start on August 13th after those articles came out. Of course he threw 6 innings against the Brewers with no earned runs in that game on August 13th. Smeltzer was first called up May 28th and either sent down or under utilized in favor of Perez during this entire bad Perez stretch and Smeltzer never pitched badly for us. Dobnak was called up August 9th and either sent down and under utilized in favor of Perez until Dobnak is finally forced (too late) into the rotation by Gibson E Coli and the Pineda suspension (Not Perez Bad Performance) on September 15th and he eventually is called upon to lead us to victory in Game TWO after 28 innings. Perez made 6 starts between August 9th and September 15th. Dobnak could have had 60 innings of work prior to the playoffs. Lewis Thorpe was called up on July 28th placed into the bullpen and was never a candidate to replace Perez in the rotation. Martin Perez personally kept us from getting important looks at Smeltzer and Dobnak and whoever. While he was handed the ball every 5th game religiously despite producing numbers that were as bad as any Twins pitcher in history over a 21 start stretch. From May 30th until the end of the season his ERA was 6.29. Martin Perez was perhaps worse than Logan Morrison and I sit here today hoping that Bailey is nothing like Perez. And if he is like Perez. I hope the front office learned it's lesson and removes Bailey from the rotation so someone else can try pitch like they belong in the majors. 7 Million better not stand in the way. BTW... I raise these sharp criticisms and still declare my happiness with the current front office.

That depends on how stiff you want to make your team. Personally... I don't want it stiff at all. Special Bats, you figure it out and figuring that out is 100 times better than grabbing a so-so player like Moreland to fill a hole that is only a hole because of unnecessary inflexibility. Your context is what you make it. If you find yourself saying no to Betts because you need a 1B or because you have Rosario, Buxton and Kepler and you can't figure it out... you've purposely decided to say we don't need to be better, we are OK being less than we could be. We've settled on Moreland instead of Betts because I don't know what to do with Rosario now. I don't want my front office ever thinking that way because that's how you end up with Plouffe playing every day. Not only have you settled for Moreland instead of Betts but you've also settled for Cave when Buxton gets hurt again. Donaldson is a great fit because his bat is special. He is also extraordinary defensively at 3B so he will play that position and most likely not move. Sano can move to 1B because we didn't bring back Cron and this is surely an easy enough move and this becomes the new context. Just like Betts, Rosario, Buxton and Kepler becomes your context. Cruz will get hurt, one of those OF's will be hurt. If everyone is healthy and that is rare... One of the OF's can take a day off and all will play plenty or even play 1B on occasion and probably do just fine. If your manager can't handle this, he shouldn't be managing in the new world... but if he can't... trade someone and get something real nice back. The context is... You have added Mookie Betts and that is better than Moreland. I don't expect them to trade for Betts... Realistically, I'm Ok with 1B being used to find out what Rooker, Larnach, Kiriloff, Raley or whoever can do when opportunity calls. But... if I'm adding a bat.. ADD SOMEONE BIG!!! and I don't care what position he plays. Only Buxton is good enough to be locked into a position at this point. Let's not mess around with the Moreland types.

That would be my guess as well. They wanted to get Perez back to April/May performance. However, that can be done from the back of the bullpen while he works on stuff. As for the kids and pressure. I sure hope not because it is pressure now or pressure later (like in the playoffs). The kids get thrown to the Wolves as far as I'm concerned. If they need a pressure adjustment... start the adjustment immediately.

This is my primary fear (I'm almost single issue minded on the subject) and it drives almost all of my personal viewpoints on roster construction that I mention frequently. I never want to see a Logan Morrison situation ever again. I mean ever, ever, ever... because it is completely pointless and counter-productive. You can't let a player playing that badly play everyday without seeking a better alternative. I consider Martin Perez to be the latest example of Logan Morrison so I don't believe we are out of the woods yet but we need to get out of those woods immediately. Any team that allows a below par performer to play everyday not only kills your chances for winning in the current season but it also kills your chances for future development, which kills your chances of crawling out of the hole created by sub-par play with a longer term future year possibility in hand, which in turn slows your rebuild to the point of waiting longer to being competitive again. In my opinion, this is the primary reason our Twins have taken (WAYYY) too long to return to competitive baseball and now that we are competitive again... it is still important to ensure that we remain competitive for a longer window. The primary reason for our lengthy stay in the doldrums has been rewarding of average to below average performance with everyday jobs. Settling for average to below average performance and not seeking improvement from other options. I support the right for the front office to add anybody they think can do the job and give them a job. However, once handed the job, they must perform or lose that job. It matters not what the past track record is or the amount of money you are paying him. If they think Homer Bailey is the guy, I will support that decision just like I did when they thought Martin Perez was the guy last off-season. My support ends based on performance. With Martin Perez so fresh in my memory... my caution flag is already raised with Homer Bailey because the front office demonstrated a stubbornness trying to make Martin Perez work. Neither, 7 million dollars or spin rates on a spreadsheet should allow Bailey to continue with sub-par numbers without an alternative sought. It's important this year. We have multiple minor league pitchers on the cusp and we can't be looking for the next Homer Bailey next year to replace the Homer Bailey of this year. One or two of those minor league pitchers on the cusp need to be sufficiently auditioned for inclusion on next years roster. Who will it be? We gotta find out.

If he becomes the next Perez... He can't be allowed to remain in the rotation as long as the old Perez was allowed to. Signing a free agent who doesn't perform is a mistake any front office can and will make. Doubling down on that mistake by continuing to play that mistake is something every front office can avoid.

Get a special bat and it really doesn't matter what position that special bat plays. If you are looking at positions... We need a good defensive CF more than we need any other position. If you don't sign Donaldson... Pivot to trade talks, Bryant, Starling Marte, Betts but think big. Someone like Moreland will only marginally (if at all) improve the team and actually get in the way of every single prospect on the farm. Is Moreland better than Cron? Cron was not retained.

Jose "Good Hands" Berrios.

1. There is very little doubt now that the Twins will be using a traditional 5 man rotation and I now consider the odds of using the Tampa model an extreme long shot. So much so, I will no longer consider the possibility. I had considered it a possibility up until Dec 31st, 2019. 2. I'm not sure the front office sees it this way but I think it is important to look at this from the opposite direction now. By opposite I mean, Hill and Bailey will obviously be utilized as primaries, but they need to be seen as depth/insurance more so than Dobnak, Smeltzer, Graterol, Thorpe, Alcala, Duran, Balzovic or Chalmers. I know this may be confusing but... Here's why. 3. It should be clear to everyone, the front office, fans and people who don't even pay attention to baseball that acquiring a top end starter via free agency or trade is extremely difficult to do. The combination of freewill and competition for that particular product makes it very risky to be counted on as a plan A for addressing needs or concerns in any off-season, no matter the money or prospect resources you have. I'm not saying the Twins will never, should or should not ever. I'm not saying that players don't want to come to Minnesota, I'm not making a budget statement, I'm not making a large market or small market comparison. I'm saying anything is always possible but i'm saying that it's hard and unpredictable due to freewill and competition, hard enough that the signing or trading of a top end starter shouldn't be considered a primary plan. It should be pursued like a primary plan but not considered a primary plan because the odds are low and you lack total control over the outcome. 4. We started 2019 knowing that 3 of our first 5 starters in our rotation were about to enter free agency. It ended up being 4 by the end of 2020. If no one else is added, we will start 2020 knowing that 3 of our first 5 starters in our rotation are about to enter free agency. We can't keep doing this. 5.. Once you consider point 3 and if you believe point 4 can't be done year over year. There is only one way out, you must develop your own starters and it has to happen this year. We must find our own version of Civale or Paddack and we must do it this year. Find one Civale or Paddack type pitcher from our farm and we are down to needing 2 instead of 3 next year. Find one and we are not as worried about weather Bailey performs this year. You will never find the replacement if average vets are preferred customers. 6. Focus has to shift to finding at least one starter from our system. Bailey and Hill become the insurance in this scenario. Just in case we fail to identify one pitcher who can perform from the farm, we still got Bailey and Hill. 7. Pineda will be out until May missing at least 7 starts. Hill could potential miss half a season if not more so let's say 17 starts.That's 24 starts already needed out of pitchers 6 through whatever on the depth chart. Last year we got 16 starts total outside of the top 5 so we are already entering the season requiring more from our depth. 8. If Dobnak or whoever is performing at the major league level, let them continue performing at the major league level. If Duran or Balzovic is knocking on the door at Rochester... OPEN THE DOOR. 9. Do not let any of the chosen 5 (Berrios, Odorizzi, Pineda, Hill, Bailey) suck for an extended period of time. No repeat of the Martin Perez, going back to a dry well over and over again and forsaking anybody else in the process in order to go back to the dry well over and over again. 10. With the signing of Hill and Bailey... the front office has just made the discovery of 2020 talent out of Dobnak, Smeltzer, Graterol, Thorpe, Alcala, Duran, Balzovic or Chalmers much much much more important than if Bailey is able to break 100 OPS+ or if Hill is able to earn those incentives. Bailey and Hill should be considered insurance.

Agreed... just not at the start of the year. There will be plenty of injury and poor performance for the depth to rise past. Civale didn’t start the season but he pitched well enough to start the following season. The Twins should go get two unless they are using the Tampa model and if they are using the Tampa model they will need more bullpen... and they should stop reading Twinsdaily for awhile. Because it will get loud in here.

Yeah Exactly I still can't explain Portland, North Dakota or Grand Island Nebraska.