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Riverbrian

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Everything posted by Riverbrian

  1. Riverbrian
    Injuries are not the concern. Injuries happen every year (every month) to every team. Injuries will not bring a team down. Just look at the Yankees last year. Just look at the Twins last year. Poor play is what brings a team down. Allowing players to play like Logan Morrison and allowing that poor play to play every day is what brings a team down. When it comes to the rotation... Allowing Bailey or Chacin to pitch like Martin Perez pitched last year while keeping their rotation spot is what will kill the team. Bad play kills the team... not injuries. The Twins have starting depth... if they use it. Let the depth compete for starts. Let the best man win. It's that simple.
  2. Riverbrian
    Playing below ability while hurt is never a good thing. Rosario was 2nd in AB's post all-star break. LaMarre and Miller had 40 AB's total which were all in September to play primarily CF after Buxton and finally Kepler were hurt. Baldelli had options from June 26 to the Kepler injury on September 8. A little rest might have helped the ankle. Playing players who are hurt is a bad strategy.
  3. Riverbrian
    This is absolutely right. We have budget limitations. Every team has budget limitations, Some are just set higher than others. Maeda's contract allows for Maeda plus another player. Ryu, Wheeler, Bumgarner... those contracts restrict the possibility of additional expenditure. Starting pitching is expensive... this contract is rare. The contract has to be factored into any comparison amongst the 4 and Maeda wins after you do that because he allows for a Donaldson signing. Yeah... you do have to factor Graterol into the price but that's what contending teams do. The reality is... they traded 6 years of a reliever who might throw 60 IP a season for 4 years of a starter who might throw 180 innings a season. If that's how it works without injury... that's 720 innings for 360 innings. No matter how much any of us love Graterol... Maeda is going to be more valuable. Unless of course... Maeda goes all Logan Morrison on us.
  4. Riverbrian
    The contract puts Maeda over the top.
  5. Riverbrian
    My definition of "Dead Money" is expanded. My definition includes players like Pujols who woefully under perform.
  6. Riverbrian
    Sano and Polanco were signed while Smith was the GM, Developed while Ryan was the GM and deployed for maximum benefit while Falvey and Lavine are in charge. They all get credit. But while we waited for Sano, Polanco, Kepler and everybody to get here. We endured an extended dark age that didn't need to be so extended.
  7. Riverbrian
    With Astudillo, I would take a different approach to what I normally propose. I would start Astudillo in Rochester and I would have him catch exclusively. I would not have him play other positions. Yeah, I get that this is weird coming from me but the catcher position has inflated value compared to other positions. I would leave Astudillo in Rochester until he improves his plate discipline. I'd let him know that he is staying in Rochester until he improves his plate discipline. I believe that Astudillo's value will explode through the roof with his 600K price, years of control and hitting ability playing the hitting scarce catcher position. I believe that once he improves his plate discipline (I believe that it's possible), that we are no longer talking about the same player.
  8. Riverbrian
    I'm naturally cautious when it comes to defensive metrics in short time frames. The eye test hasn't scared me thus far.
  9. Riverbrian
    Which Ones? Are any of the stats stable with 289 MLB Innings over 31 games?
  10. Riverbrian
    Where is the "kind of stinks behind the plate" coming from?
  11. Riverbrian
    I want to be clear that I absolutely love Escobar. I've always been a fan of his. However, with the exception of 2016 (which you list). Whenever he was an opening day starter, it was only because of injury or suspension that gave him that opening day assignment. His role on the roster was utility under Gardenhire and Molitor and with those guys, that is getaway day playing time. Now, he ended up the primary in multiple years but, that wasn't planned by the front offices or managers. A (too long) list of (too many) players had to absolutely collapse in front of him. 2016 was the only year that (I believe) the team planned on Eddie being "the" starter. Notice how easily Eddie lost that starting job after 2016, notice how others who played just as terribly or worse in 2016 were starters in 2017 but not Escobar. We didn't know what we had. If we weren't so consistently awful choosing a starting 9 in front of him, we may have lost him to the pile of baseball souls. it turned out over time that Escobar was indeed (perhaps) Terry Ryan's best trade in his 2nd stint. However, the Twins made less trades than any organization during Ryan's 2nd tenure so the Liriano/Escobar trade wasn't really challenged. Dozier was the crown jewel of our in-house production and you are criticizing the return we got back for him. He is now facing a minor league deal just two years from being our best. Plouffe quickly became a minor league deal after leaving us from everyday duty that Escobar was never given. from forcing Sano to RF to a minor league deal. Hicks was deployed to early, traded for nothing and signed a bigger contract than Brian Dozier did. Buxton was deployed too early. Vargas did not develop, Arcia did not develop. Willingham was traded for something named Adam and on and on. There are no success stories from Ryan's second stint. It's too soon to tell with the current front office, they have some proving to do but the changes are visible.
  12. Riverbrian
    You got to admit that the benefit of time is being granted to only side here. Escobar was a traditional backup who got playing time because players like Florimon, Danny Santana, Aaron Hicks ETC, died in front of him. We are talking about named starters that were so bad that they had no choice but to turn to the utility backup Escobar. The Twins never knew what they had in Escobar. If they knew what they had, they wouldn't have placed Florimon, Danny Santana and everybody else consistently in front of him. Escobar wasn't even the chosen starter during his break out season 5 years later in 2018. Gardenhire and Molitor both viewed Escobar as utility backup throughout his entire tenure with the club. Escobar took more time to establish value than the Falvey and Lavine have been in office.
  13. Riverbrian
    Kiriloff is also left-handed and a hit-first corner OF with only the addition of some minor league experience at 1B to make him a little less redundant than Cave. If you are not biased against Cave and I'll take your word for it. If you are willing to give Kiriloff 4 starts a week and I agree with you give or take a few starts. Would you do the same for Cave? As for your 2nd paragraph. I won't argue... CF is perhaps my biggest concern. Buxton going down for an extended period of time in 2020 is the current roster soft spot.
  14. Riverbrian
    As String pointed out in his response to my hypothetical scenario, there are many different things to consider when it comes to a decision like adding Kiriloff to the roster. String astutely lists the majority if not all of the major considerations. "40-man status, service time, contract, options all fit in somewhere and it complicates decisions for promotion and demotion". Kiriloff would have to out distance those on the 40 man roster to justify a call up because of all the considerations that String listed. However... if he did out distance the rest and was stroking the ball as my hypothetical scenario presents. Shouldn't Kiriloff getting called up be the way that it works? Your response "They're not going to put Kiriloff on the bench for any length of time". And you finish with "A better question...would they call up Kiriloff if it was Rosario going on the IL?" The only thing I can conclude (you've expressed similar before)) from these two statements that I've taken specifically out of a longer body of thought is this: You will protect the starters and eliminate any competition to every inch of their playing time. If Cave "The Backup" is hurt. You would call up a player like Wade who can fill in that backup spot, not play much and not disturb the starters that were designated prior. If Rosario "The Starter" is hurt. You would then consider a Kiriloff call up to leap frog past Jake Cave for all of the playing time. So, your assessment of Kiriloff is currently better than Cave but currently worse than Rosario. Yet the gap between Rosario and Cave is statistically marginally thin with only 2000 plus AB's and potentially 15 million dollars and 3 years of service time separating them significantly. This is exactly what baseball has done for many decades. I'm praying it stops.
  15. Riverbrian
    Yep, that's the reason I chose Kiriloff for my example. Let's say that Kiriloff is in Rochester hitting around .350 with an OPS around 1,000. He's seeing the ball well and he is performing a foot taller than everyone else on the 40 man and the Twins call him up. You are willing to get him 4 starts a week and that makes complete sense to me. But... as you say, all players are not created equal. At least not in each individual mind's eye. You are biased against Jake Cave for your personal reasons. I won't question your logic, you may be right but you have expressed that Kiriloff's prospect ranking is part of your reasoning so you are possibly over-weighting prospect ranking over actual performance. If we want our front office to be data driven and I do because the alternative was the scout driven guessing of the previous regime that produced the dark ages. I'm going to ask my front office to be free of all the common research bias mistakes that influence outcomes. If they don't... they can put down the research and bring back Terry Ryan.
  16. Riverbrian
    Very impressive. You expertly support my point while killing my poster boy. You are better than the average bear String. I agree with all your points on platoon, matchup, rest and the difficulty of expressing the ideal number of AB's for all involved. I'm just adding potential future trade value, future cost savings to your mix. Let me ask you this. How do handle Kiriloff if he is called up in June. Let's say the injury that spurs his call up is Cave and he is out for 1 month. Everybody else is healthy.
  17. Riverbrian
    if you spread ABs across the roster, you are by definition intentionally taking ABs from the better players and giving them to the weaker players. No I'm not. My diatribes were hardened by Logan Morrison which I never want to see again. I want weaker players to get LESS AB's and if they have no chance of helping the team or increasing in future value, I'd rather they have no AB's at all. I'm outwardly questioning who are the better players and who are the weaker players and by how much are they better players and by how much are they weaker players. I'm saying without reservation that purposely wasting a roster spot by benching players who can produce above average at low cost is a hundred fold bigger waste of franchise advancement then the daily waste of playing who is maybe .005 to .100 OPS worse over the course of a season and it's an even bigger waste if the player you assume to be .005 to .100 OPS is actually better. I dont want Adrianza to get ABs at the expense of Polanco, except as necessary, and I dont want Cave to get ABs at the expense of Kepler or Buxton. Polanco doesn't have to shoulder the entire burden if Adrianza is able to increase in value. I question how much Adrianza is going to increase in value because if he does, he becomes cost prohibitive to us anyway. I trust our management to be capable of using history, health, and potential to determine ahead of time where the regular playing time should go. I also trust our management. They have the data. I was OK with them signing Martin Perez and giving him a chance. I was not fine when they let him continue because they determined ahead of time where the regular playing time should go. Now, if someone has 3 months of poor performance, and you have someone worth trying, fine. But I absolutely dont want them to make that decision based on who was hot yesterday. After 3 months, you are in a hole. If the someone worth trying after the 3 months also has poor performance, you are deeper in to the hole. My viewpoint isn't that difficult. If a player is performing... let him continue. Jake Cave has played well enough to continue. It is not taxing on a roster or a manager to find the AB's for him to continue. It is beneficial to a roster or a manager to find the AB's for him to continue.
  18. Riverbrian
    I agree with you that the data is not sufficient. I don't declare Jake Cave anything at this point. I only state that he has been capable for 500 AB's and believe he should be allowed to keep going. I do disagree with the level of trust you place in the staff to make pre-determinations and that isn't a slam or statement against our front office. I assume and believe with all my heart that they are better at it than you and I and am glad they are making the calls. But Logan Morrison, Martin Perez and Nick Anderson are enough to demonstrate that they can and do get it wrong. I believe every GM can and does get it wrong. There is one way to avoid those type of mistakes. Let the players determine the course of action through performance. I'm opposed to hard lines drawn on very small margins or insufficient data. Hard lines or predetermined assessments gaurentees a failed result. That's how Nick Anderson happened and it's how Logan Morrison happened. If I was Jake Cave... I'd be pissed if I wasn't given an honest chance to control my fate. I wouldn't want anyone telling me that I can't be as good as anyone and subsequently preventing me from proving you wrong especially if I have been playing as decently as anyone so far. If you spread the AB's across the roster. No one has to give up significant playing time to feed the entire roster. The players who shouldn't get playing time are the ones who are not playing well. Cave doesn't belong in that group based on his performance thus far. 13 bingo balls instead of 9 bingo balls with 4 blank balls and you have increased your output by 25% and a better chance at a filled out bingo card.
  19. Riverbrian
    Too soon to use these positive numbers as a negative. He had no choice but to swing the bat when he was given the chance to swing the bat. However... if you want to point out that he faced inferior pitching during his best stretch. Ok... we can do that but I will point out that everyone else faced the same pitching during this time frame and his OPS was better than everyone not named Cruz or Garver. Why does Cave get a negative check mark for hitting sub par pitching really well while Kepler, Arraez, Polanco, Schoop, Rosario, Marwin and Cron dont get a negative check mark for not hitting that same pitching as decently as Cave did?
  20. Riverbrian
    That's not two halves. That's 112 AB's over 115 games. And That's 116 AB's over 47 games. You can call that streaky. I call it opportunity. Personally... I'd be hesitant to label anyone with 500 AB's as streaky or anything for that matter.
  21. Riverbrian
    There are very few things sadder than predetermined fate.
  22. Riverbrian
    Under no circumstances do I want my front office or manager looking Jake Cave in the eye and telling him: We didn't give you AB's against tougher pitching last year so I hope you understand that we intend use that information against you going forward. Under no circumstances do I want my front office or manager so cocky and confident that the conclusions they draw prior to actual performance can't be altered or adjusted or wrong. Under no circumstances do I want my front office or manager to forget that their prior conclusions led to Logan Morrison, Martin Perez and Nick Anderson. Under no circumstances do I want increased value to be denied based on thin or secondary statistical margins. And under no circumstances do I want a player on the roster that has no chance of increasing value for tomorrow or helping the team win today.
  23. Riverbrian
    You would have been selling low in an attempt to sell high. You can only sell high with Jake Cave if his sample size increases to establish value. Of course once his sample increases, those numbers you quote may look different with more stable data. How do you stabilize the data... give him starts against tougher pitchers I guess.
  24. Riverbrian
    Lack of Analysis? Of course they are entirely different entities but easily lumped together and placed into the same (We took no steps to prepare for this) file. https://www.mlb.com/news/kyle-gibson-byron-buxton-injury-updates The Twins were aware that Kyle was not 100% at any point during the season since getting E. Coli during the WINTER and according to the article, the UC diagnosis may have been mid-July. Neither the Twins or anybody else can claim the surprise card here. And of course... Berrios, Odorizzi and Pineda were candidates for injury at any time. Because throughout baseball history... all 5 starters in any 5 man rotation have all remained healthy for an entire year... maybe zero times. What Doc is saying: Perez remained in the rotation with a 6 plus ERA over an extended time frame and Gibson remained in the rotation at less than 100% since winter advancing to measurably weak around Mid-July, waking multiple times a night with a UC diagnosis in hand. The team just rides it out, hoping it would be all right before the playoffs arrive. A starter is not acquired at the trade deadline nor is anyone from the farm called up. Doc is joining me and others in prayer. Please don't let Bailey be Perez (Terrible) or Gibson (Not Healthy) and stay in the rotation regardless of these things.
  25. Riverbrian
    I like it I'd vote Yes
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