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Riverbrian

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Everything posted by Riverbrian

  1. Riverbrian
    He's the Rug The Rug that ties the room together. I'm going to keep saying that until it sticks.
  2. Riverbrian
    You should probably add Correa to the first group. ?
  3. Riverbrian
    The Dodgers... I don't know... they are one of a tiny fraction of teams that have actual starting pitching depth already in place (the Padres may be the other fraction) so that changes the context. However... Yeah I think the Dodgers make the deal because you are really selling Friedman short if you think he ignores value. Potentially 70 Innings from Rogers for potentially 450 innings from Paddack. He makes the deal. I don't think you mean to be specific about the Dodgers exactly... I think you are making a general point that winning teams don't make this deal so any team will do for discussion purposes. I think pretty close to all 29 teams make this trade. They all get the value difference. None of them ignore value. Maybe Woods-Richardson wasn't who the A's were looking for? Maybe the A's scouting department really likes these Angeles and Martinez kids. Maybe when looking at the Twins roster in trade discussion, the Ask was significantly higher for specific players on the Twins roster that the A's were interested in. Maybe the Twins were more interested in Montas because of the extra year. Maybe the Manaea deal put Paddack on the Market and the Twins got a deal done just before opening day. Maybe the Padres called the Twins. Maybe they liked Rogers. I guess... Maybe... simply saying that the Twins should have just won the Manaea deal makes it sound like the Twins can just go get whoever they want... when they want them.
  4. Riverbrian
    I know that you read the un-bolded part because you quote it accurately. I'm not so sure you read the bolded part though based on the bolded part of your response. I'm not sure why we are spinning our wheels at this elementary level. Let's Continue. Not knowing the flop before it happens is a big part of my point. Yep... with a minimum raise I'm folding that. When I played poker... I folded a lot of hands... close to 80% of them. I was patient. However, in Baseball, you can tank... but you can't fold. All teams will see the flop... they are required to see the flop. I know I covered this earlier. but it keeps get hammered like I didn't. So... just to make sure I will bold it again. The next line is probably the crux of the discussion. There are 30 teams. That's where it starts... with a franchise. They all have the same license to compete without advantage or disadvantage. There are no rules that state that the Mariners must fail and the Mets must succeed. This is also rather elementary. I'll quote my original sentence. And this again. Just for clarity here is what I believe. The Dodgers are the best run organization in baseball. I've held them up as an example for years along with the Rays. I believe the Dodgers will win more than 95. They may not because all teams still need it to come together but I believe they will. Back to poker The Dodgers buy multiple draws. They don't get to buy specific cards... they buy multiple draws. Last year... the Twins didn't have multiple draws... they had crappy Happ and Shoemaker cards and they held those cards with no draw to replace them. This year when it comes to starting pitching... we have better cards and we have re-draws. I think that's significant. I understand that you feel differently.
  5. Riverbrian
    As I plant my ice pick into the side of this rabbit hole. I'll create a different rabbit hole. Chief... You get the Dodgers to win the World Series... I get the other 29 teams. Deal? Or... OK Poker... The Dodgers are holding a pair of Aces (D and H) The Giants are holding a 5C and 7H. Past performance suggests that these are great Odds for the Dodgers... Not Good for the Giants. The Flop is 4H 6D 8H. Based on what is happening on the playing table. Do the Odds Change? I understand that there are some on this website that feel the Twins just punted 2022. I don't have that feeling. I think the Twins are holding K 10 suited. Let's see the flop. And yeah I know... I just teed up the word "flop" for the others to swing at. ?
  6. Riverbrian
    It's completely accurate. 30 teams. That's where it starts... some teams have amassed more talent, filled more holes and how they play will adjust those starting odds but all teams have odds to overcome because the other 29 teams are also trying to win games. I'm not going to bet against the Dodgers winning 95 games when I think they are going to win more. It doesn't mean I'll be right but I think they are the best run organization in baseball. I agree with MLR... The Twins have odds to overcome... so do all the teams. I don't think they are as long as others do. I think we will have meaningful baseball in September. I had a pair of cuff links once... couldn't get them on my T-shirt.
  7. Riverbrian
    You are going to have to find another source to purchase those Gold Cuff Links. Besides... you are more of plastic button guy anyway. ?
  8. Riverbrian
    Jhoan, Jharel, Jhon all on the current 28 man roster. Wonder if they can find someone named Jhashbury or Jhief?
  9. Riverbrian
    The odds are long for all teams. Start at 1/30 and adjust that up and down based on how the talent performs. Every team needs it to come together. John Lennon knew that back in the 60's. ? Asset management strategy. From your fingers to God's eyeballs. I hope they follow the Rays, Dodgers and Giants practice.
  10. Riverbrian
    I wasn't one of those folks. ? The only thing stable about pitching is the volatility of it. You can always count on that. It's a numbers game... Smeltzer and Thorpe were not healthy and neither never really had the potential of a Winder, Balazovic or Duran either. I admit I was hoping for more out of Dobnak... that didn't work out. There wasn't anything else ready on the farm. Now you are relying on Berrios, Maeda, Pineda, Happ and Shoemaker just to fill out 5 guys to keep an antiquated 5 man rotation rotating. Eventually, and predictably they had to turn to Ober, Barnes and Jax. Ober worked out... let's see if he works out this year but if he doesn't... we have other guys to turn to. This year... instead of signing a Happ and Shoemaker and needing them to absolutely stay healthy and pitch well or it all falls apart. We have signed Bundy and Archer and have other options in case they don't stay healthy or pitch well. I love it.
  11. Riverbrian
    This trade was about value. The Twins got more value in this deal. Going forward, the Twins have the opportunity of further increasing the value of Paddack, Ryan, Ober, Winder, Duran and Balazovic. Starting pitching is valued higher than perhaps any other position. If you are going to collect bodies... this is where you collect them. We have pitching depth this year. We didn't have pitching depth last year and it showed. Let's see who rises to the occasion... Let's see who doesn't but we shouldn't have to sit through 90 innings of Shoemaker type performance this year. The bullpen will either be good, bad or in between with or without Rogers. Excess pitching that can throw multiple innings is going to play a major role in the bullpen this year.
  12. Riverbrian
    It's smart to never assume that the Twins are committed to spending to a certain level because it will always depend on what is needed and what is available. However... there does seem to be semblance of a general payroll guideline that they budget for and they will be under it and therefore no reason to assume that they won't spend the Correa money, If Correa does leave.
  13. Riverbrian
    I agree with what you are saying except for one small point. I think the Twins can contend this year and I think the front office thinks that as well. But Yeah, they are clearly hedging their bets by getting ready for 2023 at the same time.
  14. Riverbrian
    Boot?
  15. Riverbrian
    I believe we improved our chances in future years while not lessening our chances that much this year. The Bullpen will sort itself out with a lot of arms to choose from. The loss of Rogers can be mitigated internally. Donaldson... Yeah... the guy has talent but Urshela or eventually Miranda can minimize that loss by simply not being terrible. Starting Pitching has options... lots of them and that was something we didn't have last year and that improvement covers the what I consider to be smaller losses listed above. Kepler and Kiriloff having decent years, replacing Garver's production and what happens with the 8 potential starters on the opening day roster are key to this year. I'm planning on meaningful baseball being played in September.
  16. Riverbrian
    Give Winder and Celestino numbers that say "I plan on remaining in the Majors".
  17. Riverbrian
    Which also keeps the value of the player down. Real Bad strategy.
  18. Riverbrian
    It was Photobombing I'm sure
  19. Riverbrian
    When it comes to pitching. League Average is better than average. ?
  20. Riverbrian
    I can see that However, they have to know that Ober, Ryan, Duran, Winder, Balazovic and, Sands is how they get off the Happ/Shoemaker merry go round. If they would have went into this year like they did last year because they were afraid of the youth... Personally, I would have lost my mind. They are on the 40 man now... they are here... they are taking up valuable space, there is more to come next year. This year, they have to move forward with these young arms and start graduating them but at the same time... Due to covid and injuries, they don't have the innings built up yet so they got to augment, hedge bets, build an army. control usage. I think the pitching has more of a plan to it than the signing of Correa but I think youth was always part of that plan.
  21. Riverbrian
    I have almost the opposite impression. I believe that since the lockout, the front office has been off-script and simply reacting to opportunity as it presented itself. I think when they traded Garver... the Plan was to fill SS with Kiner-Filefa and that would have been the end of it... but... I think the Yankees surprised them by offering to take Donaldson's contract in order to get Kiner-Filefa and the Twins couldn't pass on getting out of that contract which altered the plan. Now they have the money to consider Story or Correa... They were probably not on the radar before Donaldson was moved. On the pitching front... I believe the front office has been beating the bushes from the get go... beating the bushes for perhaps the hardest thing to actually find. They found the right package with Cincinnati, they didn't with Oakland and now they have found the right package with San Diego. In the End though... This front office will be judged by Winder, Balazovic, Sands and all those young pitchers coming through the system. When the rotation looks like the 2022 Marlins, A lot of this type of craziness will go away.
  22. Riverbrian
    Agreed I think almost every team (there might be some renegades out there) has a value assigned to every player and I also believe those values don't vary much from team to team. I believe trades almost automate in a value sense. Ten Bucks for Ten Bucks in the end. The Padres are over the luxury tax... Over 200 million in payroll this year. They are actively (publicly) trying to shed Hosmer's contract for wiggle room because I assume they haven't got much wiggle room. This trade indicates to me that the Padres are financially capped and would prefer 1 year deals that come off the books while the Twins are rising and looking for value enhancement. The Money evens out the value that all teams consider but the trade itself fits the context of where each team is at in the cycle.
  23. Riverbrian
    It was stated well. I was agreeing with you by adding more words. Perhaps not well-stated by me.
  24. Riverbrian
    The Money evens out the trade. Paddack a starting pitcher under team control through 2024 is a much much higher value.
  25. Riverbrian
    Pitching is a numbers game. No organization can look at 5 starters and declare themselves covered. Options 6 through 10 are going to play a role.
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