Riverbrian

Whatever they need to do I'm OK with. However... I'm thinking Buxton Plus.

You could be right. I assume there is a ton of stuff inside the walls that could explain why a starter wasn't acquired that doesn't reach the public. The only thing I can do is look at what I can see and I see that a starter wasn't acquired. Why I don't know. I can only assume that you are at the mercy of meeting the other's price when you have need and competition for that need will drive the price up. However... the need for a starter didn't go away once a starter wasn't acquired. If the price was too high they had to fill that need with the options available.

Agreed... that's why I listed CF as perhaps our biggest position player need and not 1B. That's another reason why I'd rather go get a Betts instead of a Moreland.

I agree... There had to be concerns about Gibson's health because the E Coli wasn't new. There had to be concerns about.Perez's performance and the possibility of injury from any of the other 3, historically probable. How that trade deadline passed us without a starter acquisition is beyond me... but if they didn't like the prices and passed. 1 kid at a time or 2 kids at a time was no longer a consideration. It was a requirement.

I've retired from the "I want this player business". I truly want the front office to use the data they have and make sensible decisions on the players they want to add. I just want the front office to realize that they will be wrong at times I want them to react to those wrong times when they occur. With that said... I like Castellanos and I think he would be an upgrade bat who could play 1B and the occasional OF.... I think his 3B days are dead. He is the type of player that you figure it out for. But... with that said... I have retired from the "I want this player business".

I think Perez compares with Morrison when you look at his previous body of work. Morrison was at least coming off a rebound year. Perez was coming off a disaster of a year and his years prior to that disaster were not of the (I've earned a major league job) variety. Perez was a project the minute he signed with us. Now... to be fair... Perez was making everyone look like a genius until May 30th. His April and May for us was so good that I can certainly understand the temptation to try and get him back to what he was doing in April and May. However... In my opinion, there is a limit to how long you let a guy struggle and more importantly... when the wheels started coming off Perez... the front office had to know that the playoffs were indeed probable and preparations for those playoffs needed to begin. I didn't mark the Thames or Symborski articles as any kind of indicator. I was already there. In my opinion... The first date of consideration for moving Perez out of the rotation was after the all-star break. He should have never made that start on July 17th. From May 30th to July 5th he had made 7 starts totaling 37 innings. His ERA during that stretch was 6.32. Why Perez now at the all-star break? 1. His performance was clearly not good for 7 straight starts. We got something that needs correcting at the very least. 2. If the Twins were to acquire a starter at the upcoming deadline... And they needed to acquire a starter at the deadline because nobody goes through a season with only 5 starters... but back to IF the Twins. If the Twins were to acquire a starter at the deadline, it was clearly going to be Perez who would be moved out of the rotation to accommodate. Look at the healthy 5. Who makes room for Stroman... It would have been Perez. So just do it now... you don't have to wait for the trade deadline especially when he is going through a 7 start stretch with a 6.32 ERA. 3. And of course... it was the month of July when the front office went on a bullpen DFA purge releasing Mejia, Morin, Magill and Parker in 11 days from July 13th to July 24th. This is significant because we obviously needed some bullpen help after sending 4 of them packing. It was the perfect time to lessen Perez's responsibility from 6 innings to 3 or less. Let him find that April/May Cutter magic out of the pen instead of waiting for 5 days to take another stab it. OK... so the All-Star Break didn't happen... I stated last July that moving Perez at that time was the move but.. OK... it didn't happen. The next window for making the move was obvious. At least to me. August 1st. After the deadline passed and the Twins did not acquire starting pitching. They had no choice... they had to find the guy from their system and they had to do it now. No team is going to go through a season with the same 5 guys in the rotation. Once they didn't acquire Stroman (For Example). The Team had to develop it's own Stroman (For example). Just because they didn't acquire Stroman doesn't mean the need went away. The need was still there so they needed to get to immediate work finding our version of Stroman. Every passing day after August 1st that Perez remained in the rotation was a repeated daily mistake. Every day after August 1st that they were not feverishly trying to figure out who they should turn to between Dobnak, Smeltzer, Thorpe or Kohl Stewart was a repeated daily mistake. Even if I could justify them not making the move August 1st (Which I can't) as they desperately clung to Perez and desperately avoided Smeltzer, Dobnak, Thorpe or whoever. On August 2nd he gave up 5 runs in 5 innings of work against the Royals and then again on August 7th... he gave up 7 earned runs in 6 innings against the Braves. The articles you mention came out August 11th and 12. His ERA from May 30th to those articles was 6.61 over 64 innings. He should have never been allowed to make that start on August 13th after those articles came out. Of course he threw 6 innings against the Brewers with no earned runs in that game on August 13th. Smeltzer was first called up May 28th and either sent down or under utilized in favor of Perez during this entire bad Perez stretch and Smeltzer never pitched badly for us. Dobnak was called up August 9th and either sent down and under utilized in favor of Perez until Dobnak is finally forced (too late) into the rotation by Gibson E Coli and the Pineda suspension (Not Perez Bad Performance) on September 15th and he eventually is called upon to lead us to victory in Game TWO after 28 innings. Perez made 6 starts between August 9th and September 15th. Dobnak could have had 60 innings of work prior to the playoffs. Lewis Thorpe was called up on July 28th placed into the bullpen and was never a candidate to replace Perez in the rotation. Martin Perez personally kept us from getting important looks at Smeltzer and Dobnak and whoever. While he was handed the ball every 5th game religiously despite producing numbers that were as bad as any Twins pitcher in history over a 21 start stretch. From May 30th until the end of the season his ERA was 6.29. Martin Perez was perhaps worse than Logan Morrison and I sit here today hoping that Bailey is nothing like Perez. And if he is like Perez. I hope the front office learned it's lesson and removes Bailey from the rotation so someone else can try pitch like they belong in the majors. 7 Million better not stand in the way. BTW... I raise these sharp criticisms and still declare my happiness with the current front office.

That depends on how stiff you want to make your team. Personally... I don't want it stiff at all. Special Bats, you figure it out and figuring that out is 100 times better than grabbing a so-so player like Moreland to fill a hole that is only a hole because of unnecessary inflexibility. Your context is what you make it. If you find yourself saying no to Betts because you need a 1B or because you have Rosario, Buxton and Kepler and you can't figure it out... you've purposely decided to say we don't need to be better, we are OK being less than we could be. We've settled on Moreland instead of Betts because I don't know what to do with Rosario now. I don't want my front office ever thinking that way because that's how you end up with Plouffe playing every day. Not only have you settled for Moreland instead of Betts but you've also settled for Cave when Buxton gets hurt again. Donaldson is a great fit because his bat is special. He is also extraordinary defensively at 3B so he will play that position and most likely not move. Sano can move to 1B because we didn't bring back Cron and this is surely an easy enough move and this becomes the new context. Just like Betts, Rosario, Buxton and Kepler becomes your context. Cruz will get hurt, one of those OF's will be hurt. If everyone is healthy and that is rare... One of the OF's can take a day off and all will play plenty or even play 1B on occasion and probably do just fine. If your manager can't handle this, he shouldn't be managing in the new world... but if he can't... trade someone and get something real nice back. The context is... You have added Mookie Betts and that is better than Moreland. I don't expect them to trade for Betts... Realistically, I'm Ok with 1B being used to find out what Rooker, Larnach, Kiriloff, Raley or whoever can do when opportunity calls. But... if I'm adding a bat.. ADD SOMEONE BIG!!! and I don't care what position he plays. Only Buxton is good enough to be locked into a position at this point. Let's not mess around with the Moreland types.

That would be my guess as well. They wanted to get Perez back to April/May performance. However, that can be done from the back of the bullpen while he works on stuff. As for the kids and pressure. I sure hope not because it is pressure now or pressure later (like in the playoffs). The kids get thrown to the Wolves as far as I'm concerned. If they need a pressure adjustment... start the adjustment immediately.

This is my primary fear (I'm almost single issue minded on the subject) and it drives almost all of my personal viewpoints on roster construction that I mention frequently. I never want to see a Logan Morrison situation ever again. I mean ever, ever, ever... because it is completely pointless and counter-productive. You can't let a player playing that badly play everyday without seeking a better alternative. I consider Martin Perez to be the latest example of Logan Morrison so I don't believe we are out of the woods yet but we need to get out of those woods immediately. Any team that allows a below par performer to play everyday not only kills your chances for winning in the current season but it also kills your chances for future development, which kills your chances of crawling out of the hole created by sub-par play with a longer term future year possibility in hand, which in turn slows your rebuild to the point of waiting longer to being competitive again. In my opinion, this is the primary reason our Twins have taken (WAYYY) too long to return to competitive baseball and now that we are competitive again... it is still important to ensure that we remain competitive for a longer window. The primary reason for our lengthy stay in the doldrums has been rewarding of average to below average performance with everyday jobs. Settling for average to below average performance and not seeking improvement from other options. I support the right for the front office to add anybody they think can do the job and give them a job. However, once handed the job, they must perform or lose that job. It matters not what the past track record is or the amount of money you are paying him. If they think Homer Bailey is the guy, I will support that decision just like I did when they thought Martin Perez was the guy last off-season. My support ends based on performance. With Martin Perez so fresh in my memory... my caution flag is already raised with Homer Bailey because the front office demonstrated a stubbornness trying to make Martin Perez work. Neither, 7 million dollars or spin rates on a spreadsheet should allow Bailey to continue with sub-par numbers without an alternative sought. It's important this year. We have multiple minor league pitchers on the cusp and we can't be looking for the next Homer Bailey next year to replace the Homer Bailey of this year. One or two of those minor league pitchers on the cusp need to be sufficiently auditioned for inclusion on next years roster. Who will it be? We gotta find out.

If he becomes the next Perez... He can't be allowed to remain in the rotation as long as the old Perez was allowed to. Signing a free agent who doesn't perform is a mistake any front office can and will make. Doubling down on that mistake by continuing to play that mistake is something every front office can avoid.

Get a special bat and it really doesn't matter what position that special bat plays. If you are looking at positions... We need a good defensive CF more than we need any other position. If you don't sign Donaldson... Pivot to trade talks, Bryant, Starling Marte, Betts but think big. Someone like Moreland will only marginally (if at all) improve the team and actually get in the way of every single prospect on the farm. Is Moreland better than Cron? Cron was not retained.

Jose "Good Hands" Berrios.

1. There is very little doubt now that the Twins will be using a traditional 5 man rotation and I now consider the odds of using the Tampa model an extreme long shot. So much so, I will no longer consider the possibility. I had considered it a possibility up until Dec 31st, 2019. 2. I'm not sure the front office sees it this way but I think it is important to look at this from the opposite direction now. By opposite I mean, Hill and Bailey will obviously be utilized as primaries, but they need to be seen as depth/insurance more so than Dobnak, Smeltzer, Graterol, Thorpe, Alcala, Duran, Balzovic or Chalmers. I know this may be confusing but... Here's why. 3. It should be clear to everyone, the front office, fans and people who don't even pay attention to baseball that acquiring a top end starter via free agency or trade is extremely difficult to do. The combination of freewill and competition for that particular product makes it very risky to be counted on as a plan A for addressing needs or concerns in any off-season, no matter the money or prospect resources you have. I'm not saying the Twins will never, should or should not ever. I'm not saying that players don't want to come to Minnesota, I'm not making a budget statement, I'm not making a large market or small market comparison. I'm saying anything is always possible but i'm saying that it's hard and unpredictable due to freewill and competition, hard enough that the signing or trading of a top end starter shouldn't be considered a primary plan. It should be pursued like a primary plan but not considered a primary plan because the odds are low and you lack total control over the outcome. 4. We started 2019 knowing that 3 of our first 5 starters in our rotation were about to enter free agency. It ended up being 4 by the end of 2020. If no one else is added, we will start 2020 knowing that 3 of our first 5 starters in our rotation are about to enter free agency. We can't keep doing this. 5.. Once you consider point 3 and if you believe point 4 can't be done year over year. There is only one way out, you must develop your own starters and it has to happen this year. We must find our own version of Civale or Paddack and we must do it this year. Find one Civale or Paddack type pitcher from our farm and we are down to needing 2 instead of 3 next year. Find one and we are not as worried about weather Bailey performs this year. You will never find the replacement if average vets are preferred customers. 6. Focus has to shift to finding at least one starter from our system. Bailey and Hill become the insurance in this scenario. Just in case we fail to identify one pitcher who can perform from the farm, we still got Bailey and Hill. 7. Pineda will be out until May missing at least 7 starts. Hill could potential miss half a season if not more so let's say 17 starts.That's 24 starts already needed out of pitchers 6 through whatever on the depth chart. Last year we got 16 starts total outside of the top 5 so we are already entering the season requiring more from our depth. 8. If Dobnak or whoever is performing at the major league level, let them continue performing at the major league level. If Duran or Balzovic is knocking on the door at Rochester... OPEN THE DOOR. 9. Do not let any of the chosen 5 (Berrios, Odorizzi, Pineda, Hill, Bailey) suck for an extended period of time. No repeat of the Martin Perez, going back to a dry well over and over again and forsaking anybody else in the process in order to go back to the dry well over and over again. 10. With the signing of Hill and Bailey... the front office has just made the discovery of 2020 talent out of Dobnak, Smeltzer, Graterol, Thorpe, Alcala, Duran, Balzovic or Chalmers much much much more important than if Bailey is able to break 100 OPS+ or if Hill is able to earn those incentives. Bailey and Hill should be considered insurance.

Agreed... just not at the start of the year. There will be plenty of injury and poor performance for the depth to rise past. Civale didn’t start the season but he pitched well enough to start the following season. The Twins should go get two unless they are using the Tampa model and if they are using the Tampa model they will need more bullpen... and they should stop reading Twinsdaily for awhile. Because it will get loud in here.

Yeah Exactly I still can't explain Portland, North Dakota or Grand Island Nebraska.

Deepen that thing!!! Keep going... bring in the arms!

Thad Lavine offering to personally come by the house with Pizza and Beer to box up the dishes and the Sno-Cone maker X-mas gift unused from 5 years ago would certainly work with any free agent.

They show up all the time when given the opportunity. From Altuve to Muncy to Santander to Goodrum to Aristides Aquino to Edman to Voit to Danny Santana. The lack of opportunity is what makes it seem like they don't happen very often, they are often blocked by Vets who are allowed to fluctuate, perhaps more than the possible fluctuation that yoy say is possible from Arraez. And you are right Arraez isn't a lock to repeat his performance. When he gets the call. Give him AB's, If he performs let him continue.

I am a big believer in this front office. However, here's the deal. Need is a funny thing. When you place yourself in a position of need, you expose yourself to the possibility of being a victim of freewill. The Twins or any intending team that needs to jump into the free agent waters are exposed to the possibility of their preferred free agent having Arizona Horse Dreams and they can't do anything about that. Except not put themselves in the position of having that need. We got need this year. If this taxes future years. That future tax or risk that Ryu is dead money in the 4th year or possibly every year of the contract must be baked in because we have need NOW and they got to do do something. As the solid free agent options fall off the board, they are forced to trade now. The trade will cost us prospects, those same prospects that they didn't want to part with back in Late July 2019. I'll wait until the team breaks camp to be fully critical but the FA door is about to close and Orange Pylons will be placed in that lane.

Dobnak might work out great. I'm not going to stand here and doubt him. I'm pulling for him. However, it is unnecessarily risky to hand him an opening day rotation spot after 28 innings because if he if he sophomore slumps it, then where do we go? We still have him and he can be the guy we turn to if someone else without options doesn't work out. Why spend your depth instead of money?

Between "Just You-n-Me". "I've been searchin so long" for a post like that. A post that can "Make me Smile".

In my opinion... This is the most important article written thus far in the off season on Twinsdaily. I'll start by saying that Minnesota clearly did not trust Dobnak to start a playoff game... They were left with no option but to start Dobnak in a playoff game because of Perez Performance, Gibson Sickness and Pineda Suspension. Because they didn't trust Dobnak in a playoff game, they were forced to hold back key members of the bullpen in Game 1 to plan for needing key members in Game 2 because they didn't anticipate Dobnak giving us multiple innnings. This led to the usage of Stashak in game 1 after Berrios didn't throw enough innings and Littell got nervous. So they threw Stashak in a close playoff game because they had Dobnak in game two. And they threw Stashak after not trusting Stashak in high leverage situations during the regular season. This all happened because they minimized the use of Dobnak and Smeltzer and placed all hope in Perez turning it around and this did not happen. Not to mention, they had to be aware of Gibson's E Coli issues. I started talking about all of this last June. The 5 man rotation was doing fine as of June and our posters were primarily focused on the bullpen when talking about trade deadline needs. I felt back in June, that the bullpen need would become much much worse, if we had to depend on the bullpen more. And we would need to depend on that bullpen more if anything happened to anyone in the rotation. And anything happening to anyone in the rotation was almost sure to happen because nobody goes through the season with a healthy 5. So I stated that... yes we need bullpen help at the deadline but our number one need is going to be a starter because as of June... we were relying on our starters to carry the bulk of the water. Not only did we need to identify or trade for a 6th (or 7th or 8th) starter for 2019 success. Any longer range planning into 2020 would be a neon sign that we would have to make some off-season acquisitions since 3 of our starters were pending FA's. So this made the acquisition of a starter with at least an extra year of control... extremely important. At the trade deadline, when no starter was acquired, Perez was already in a funk. His ERA had soared over 5 and the possibility of Perez being a poor choice for a playoff roster was an absolute possibility at the end of July based on his performance, along with the possibility that I mentioned in June, of any of the other 4 pitchers getting hurt (or suspended). So once the deadline passed without any acquisitions... They committed themselves to finding depth from their own system. Who is the better MAJOR LEAGUE Pitcher? Dobnak? Smeltzer? Graterol? Thorpe? Who is it? I don't know but they needed to find out but they remained committed to the starting 5 including Perez who was clearly struggling. And just to be clear... the front office doesn't have this down to a science. No front office does. If they had it down. Nick Anderson would be in a Twins uniform today and Martin Perez would have been on the playoff roster. The only way you find out if they can help you in the playoffs... is by handing them the ball. Once the trade deadline passed... Smeltzer or Dobnak should have been placed immediately into the rotation, taking the place of Perez. I was worried that they would reach the playoffs with Perez still being Perez and any of the other 4 or two of the other 4 getting hurt in September and this will force the Twins to simply toss a guy with minimal MLB innings into an important playoff role... and... this is exactly what happened. So for 2020... here is what they need to do. 1. Decide if you are going to go with a traditional 5 man rotation or use the Rays model (Which I'm fine with). 2. If they go with the traditional 5 man rotation. Dobnak, Smeltzer, Graterol and Thorpe are DEPTH. Get two more starters. They can choose one of the 4 to show what they can do in April while Pineda sits out his suspension but under no circumstances can they justify any thought of trusting Dobnak, Smeltzer, Graterol or Thorpe after going out of their way to not trust them last season. All any of them had to do last season was pitch better than the 5 plus ERA that Perez was providing and the organization did not elevate any of them above Perez until the final second of choosing a playoff roster. Nothing will have changed in the off-season to just hand the keys to a pitcher that they wouldn't hand the keys to in August of last year with a playoff breeze coming through the window. You can't say... we didn't trust them in August or the playoffs really but now we trust them to get an opening day roster spot so we don't have to acquire someone better. Especially with a team that has realistic playoff considerations going into the season. 3. If they go with the Rays Model... OK... but get serious about the bullpen. Don't plug and play here... You better be on Betances and others because you've just gone from needing 8 bullpen arms to needing 10 or 11. 4. The front office and manager will show you who they trust by how they utilize them. They have no trust in any of the 4 players listed above based on how they were utilized last year. 5. Start these guys in Rochester... let them compete for next man up. When the next man is called up... Utilize them... if they fail... go to the next guy but they need to be in constant search for depth. 6. Never ever... ever.... ever. Let a guy like Martin Perez with a 5 plus ERA keep his job just like you should never... ever... ever... let a guy like Logan Morrison hitting under .200 keep his job. 7. Not only did the Twins need to know who they trusted in the playoffs but they needed to know who to keep and who to let go in the off-season and they needed to know how many free agent signings or trade acquisitions they would need for the rotation during the off-season. This is all information that could have been gathered by letting Dobnak show that he was indeed without question better than the 5 plus ERA that Perez provided. More innings were necessary to gather more information... Perez was not good enough... we had the need, we avoided it and went with Perez... this was a simple enough move last year. If Dobnak or Smeltzer or Thorpe were to fail... They would have that information for the playoffs and off-season roster setting. They already knew that Perez was failing. We lose nothing replacing a failing starter for a failing prospect, we gain everything identifying an OK or good prospect over a failing vet. 8. The offense had depth last year and they had depth because they played that depth to find who was depth. They need to take the same approach with the pitching. 9. Go get some pitching. THE BREEZE... FEEL IT. This article is extremely important in my eyes.

I think you are correct. The Twins have the room in the budget to spend some cash. You are also right that it is getting increasingly harder to spend our financial resources on pitching as names drop off the board. Pitching may have to be addressed via trade leaving some cash to improve the team offensively. It is very solid logic from the Twins current context that you are making. However, in the assessment of the current market for Donaldson... I do have a different opinion from yours. The Nats need power, they are under the CBT and historically not really afraid of the CBT. As things stand today for the Nats... They have Kendrick at 1B, Difo at 2B, Kieboom at 3B and Turner at SS and nobody interesting behind those 4 to compete or share time. The Nats are the very definition of a team that is offensive desperate enough with the resources to pay the 4 years Donaldson is asking. They need to look at Donaldson plus a 1B or 2B or all three. They don't have much choice. The Braves agree are in great shape. They have Riley who can play 3B and Culberson and Carmargo plus decent options across the infield with Swanson, Albies and Freeman. Yes, Donaldson would make them even stronger, deeper and they'd love to have him but they don't have to pay the 4 years Donaldson is asking because they can add offense almost anywhere across the diamond with money or trade because they have young pitching coming out of their ears. I don't see the Braves. The Dodgers are absolutely not afraid to move Turner anywhere and it will be no factor in their decision to add Donaldson or trade for Profar or do anything to make the team better. They can sign Donaldson and have Turner play some 1B while Muncy plays whatever. They can trade for Lindor and move Seager to 2B or 3B and Turner to 1B or wherever. They Dodgers do this sort of thing all the time. They just want good players on good terms. However... The Dodgers as they stand today can do absolutely nothing this off season and make the playoffs in 2020 with relative ease.They can wait until the trade deadline to pick up a difference maker. They they do not have to cave to Donaldson's 4 year ask or to the Indians asking for Lux, Verdugo and May for Lindor. The same goes for Bumgarner... the Dodgers don't have to pay 5 years for Bumgarner because they have a 5 man rotation with 4 pitchers in the minors who can replace those guys. They will try to bring Bumgarner in to make that rotation potentially better but they don't have to pay 5 years and will probably try to land him with less years. And if they don't get him... they don't get him. They have no need to over pay anywhere. The Twins on the other hand just might have to overpay in order to land Bumgarner because this is where our desperation is. But... they do not have to add Donaldson because our offensive depth doesn't force desperation... especially with Larnach, Rooker, Kiriloff and Lewis knocking on the door. IMO... Josh Donaldson should be shopping for a place to live in Northern Virginia right about now.

Absolutely every day of the week and twice on Sunday. However, failure to do so means... We must pay at this moment.

Yes In theory, the Cron spot on the roster could be filled by a player who plays a different position. Any position. We don't have to limit ourselves to replacing Cron with a 1B only and therefore settling for a Bird dice roll. We don't have to shove Arraez into a static 2B role to replace the Schoop roster spot either? We also don't have to take name Marwin a starter anywhere either and take away his flexibility? The Twins can absolutely consider the best player regardless of position and acquire whoever that is. Mookie Betts could absolutely be the guy who replaces Cron. The current Twins roster could make this work... rather smoothly.