Riverbrian

I was sleeping in med school so I really can't answer this question... However, my assumption is yes. People like to talk about the old days and how pitchers used to be able to throw a million innings a year but we are at a whole new level now from the old days. It was celebrated decades ago if the rare pitcher hit 97 mph. 100... maybe 1 or 2. We got a bunch of those guys now. Is this more than the human body is capable of sustaining? ... like I said... I was sleeping in med school but my assumption is Yes. If we have seen an increase in the 100 mph arms... you have to assume that everyone has bumped up their ceilings. The 94 mph guy from yesteryear is throwing 100 now. The 87 MPH guy from yesteryear is hitting 93MPH and maybe that is beyond his sustainability. Today's play throws harder, runs faster, jumps higher than the player from past decades. Maybe we have crossed a line. Just spitballing because I was sleeping in med school.

High demand, low supply, high injury frequency will produce incredible costs to acquire very little. The Twins currently have 9 decent starters. Other teams are stock piling starters beyond 5 because nobody can keep them healthy. This just increases the demand and lowers the supply even more. If you are going to corner a market... this is the corner to focus on.

There is another thread that is talking about having to move Kepler because of a log jam and here we have a concern about runners not being on base at the bottom of the order. There is no reason to roster a Freddie Patek type anymore. We better hit 1 through 9.

If there was ever a team in the history of baseball that needs to staff about 25 outfielders on the 26 man roster. This TEAM is IT. We just came off a season where we needed about 30 of them last year and we are entering a season where nobody has proven capable of being the guy (Buxton Health included in that capability).

Every off season I hear discussion about a log jam. Every single off season without fail... we have to move someone because of a log jam. The log jam is like big foot. I have never seen an actual log jam in a Twins uniform out in the wild, there are no remains of a dead log jam found on a river bank. No log jams droppings. Log Jam also = Loch Ness Monster Never seen one

I was giggling when I typed it.

Last year, we had a chorus of complaints about how long our starters were on the mound. I could see the taxation on the bullpen and I would have loved to complain about it but I kept thinking about the analytics department. The Twins have these employees who analyze stuff. We know they do and that stuff that they analyze is going to make it's way to field level and then utilized. If it doesn't make it to field level there is very little reason to have these employees who analyze stuff. If the manager ignores the stuff... there is very little reason to have the manager remain in place. They either work together or the manager or the department has to go. Personally... I wouldn't know where to begin to research the effects of rest (positive or negative) on each individual player but there is a part of me that is hoping that data like that is being researched by someone in these large analytic departments and the information is making it to field level and utilized appropriately and then I hope that results of that utilization is then reanalyzed by someone else in these large analytic departments and improved upon. Then as soon as you got Delmon Young all figured out. The coaches... we employ lots of them who are all employed for the purpose of making players better. Well... those guys make Delmon Young better and the data points change. 😀

I've spend a lot of time thinking about such things. My wife complains because I forget to take the garbage out because I'm thinking about such things instead and she is right... it has absolutely no benefit to me at all. She'd rather I take out the garbage or at least monetize the things that I think about. 😀 What have I concluded... Everybody needs it. You often hear about the need for players to "work themselves through a slump". Sounds sensible but the problem is that you have to endure the slump while you allow certain players to work through it and some players barely snap out of it leaving you with a ball of nothing and nice draft position. Regular playing time ends up being this fluid explanation for nearly every scenario that rolls down the hill. It can be applied as an explanation or not applied at the convenience of whoever can use it to plead each particular case. I've basically simplified it to one thing. Give all players the chance to earn playing time and keep providing playing time to those who earn it.

Agreed and I really appreciate the topic. The "Matt Stairs effect". I love it.

We will have a couple of 40 man spots open up down the road when players get placed on the 60 day. Garlick could still get one of those spots... however... Geez, how many outfielders can you squeeze onto the 40 man. There is still the possibility of more trades yet to come that will change the equation and open up that door. With Larnach... If he reports to AAA and works his way back up when injuries occur... I'm ok with that. If he ends up being that 13th guy on the 26 man roster. He can't sit and watch... he must participate or else we are looking at the next 1st round pick who didn't make it. The only way I see Gallo and Kepler working for us is if they are forced to earn their playing time with good old fashioned competition with Kirilloff, Gordon and Larnach and Taylor for the bulk of the playing time and that competition for playing time must start day one. Use the DH to get them all playing time. Use the IF to get Gordon some playing time. Use 1B to get Kirilloff some playing time and let them fight it out.

In hindsight it looks like he should have been placed on the D.L and then maybe we have him for September. I was sleeping during med school but I agree with you because whatever they tried with Buxton last year... didn't work. They were careful and he still ended up being out for the stretch run. I heard Rocco say that Buxton was giving it everything he had but he could barely walk into the locker room some days. Was it the inconsistent playing time... or was it the knee injury itself? I often hear about the importance of consistent playing time and it makes all the sense in the world when you hear it. Rhythm... Timing has to be important... it passes the common sense test. Boras was telling everybody that Gallo's struggles were playing time related. If only Gallo could get regular playing time. However, it only seemingly applies to certain players. Buxton it applies to because his numbers were not what we expected. Rob Refsnyder it does not apply to. Rob is that .300 hitter that you said can't happen. https://www.espn.com/mlb/player/gamelog/_/id/33411/rob-refsnyder It applies to Joey Gallo but it doesn't apply to Kyle Garlick and all of the short side platoon guys. Garlick is expected to mash lefties with 28% playing time. It applies to the chosen starting 9 on all 30 teams but it doesn't apply to the 4 bench guys. If you rest them, they will lose that comfort/rhythm/timing and those 4 bench guys will be expected to perform on a Sunday afternoon after sitting Monday through Saturday. Of course... we would never see a player perform worse in August and September or in the playoffs with regular playing time as a cure all but yet we do. We would never see a player go on a hot streak after returning from injury and yet we do. It makes all the sense in the world when it is expressed. Real life? I'm not so sure. But, if it is important... with the injuries that occur, we better make sure that all 26 players are getting that comfort rhythm and timing.

Larnach will be 26 years old with two options left. If Larnach is on the 26 man roster and behind those 4. We can all stop dreaming of the day that Larnach will be the answer to anything in the future. Because he will be 28 years old in no time at all. If Larnach makes the 26 man roster. He must be given the opportunity to earn a job by outplaying Kepler, Gallo and Gordon for playing time. Garlick is practically useless to me. He will sit on the bench until a lefty hits the stage. He will be start and be subbed out when a right hander takes the mound and he will pinch hit and be subbed out as a defensive replacement. He will occupy a valuable roster spot on a roster that has health and hitting question marks all over the place. We need a bat. This lineup needs to deepen. Our Disabled list will be utilized this year. 😀

Agreed. However, that's a lot to place on the shoulders of someone with 359 career AB's and a career .694 OPS. Kirilloff was important with Arraez on the roster. He becomes importanter with Arraez off the roster. 😀

I agree with you. The margins are awfully thin on the offensive side. Buxton is a health question mark Polanco has been a health question mark. Gallo and Kepler are performance questions marks. Kirilloff and Larnach are both Health and Performance question marks. Gordon and Miranda are sophomores and sophomores... well. Two of the players on the roster will be catchers who don't hit much. I also understand the trade but Arraez needs to be replaced. We need a BAT!

We need another bat! If Celestino makes the opening day 26 man roster. The front office will have made a huge mistake. You don't take a 23 year who isn't ready to play in the majors and give him a position where he is a Byron Buxton injury away from playing in the majors. It was a mistake to do that with a 22 year old, no excuse to repeat that mistake. We have 16 position players on the current 40 man roster. Two of Larnach, Celestino, Julien and Wallner will make the opening day 26 man roster as things stand right now. If anybody gets hurt in spring training (it happens)... Three of those 4 will make the opening day roster. If two people get hurt in spring training (it happens)... well... I'll just mention again that we currently have 16 position players on the current 40 man roster. Now we can place some players on the 60 day later. That will open up spots on the 40 man to give to Garlick or Willi Castro types. We can also sign players that get bumped off of other teams rosters. Garlick, Castro type players along with players that get bumped off other rosters can help us avoid rushing Celestino, Julien and Wallner just to fill out an opening day roster. However they fill out the 26 man roster... Celestino or Castro. I will guarantee everyone this. Whoever makes the 26 man roster WILL PLAY. So they better get somebody who can hit before you forced to roster someone who can't hit.

While I am still suffering from ADS (Arraez departure sadness) and I am praying for a replacement in the offense. What you said is often over looked by others and can't be denied. You are 100% correct. We don't have to wait 4 years for Salas to pay major league dividends. He isn't future value... He is value right now.

Last year I remember myself going monkey over the Garver trade. My concern turned out to be premature so I'm trying a more relaxed approach this off-season. 😀

Last Year when the Twins traded Taylor Rogers for Paddack. There were many who were concerned about the loss of Rogers but I was OK with the deal because I thought it was a great value trade. I remember saying... you make that trade for a starter every time. Well... Here I am today... A great value trade was made... perhaps a better value trade than the Paddack deal. They made that trade for a starter... But, now the shoe is on the other foot because I'm not sure how they replace Arraez offensively much like others were not sure how they replace Rogers in the bullpen last year. I guess it's my turn. With that said... the season is still the off-season. The Twins have time to find a replacement for Arraez. As things currently stand Celestino would probably make the 26 man and that can't happen. He was not ready for that duty. We have more starters on the 40 man than we need. I think the Twins will be moving a starter for a hitter before it's all said and done. I'll reserve judgement until the off-season is concluded.

That is one of the most sensible things ever posted on this website. Cheers to you! 😀

Then Yeah... We are arguing over a misunderstanding. I ask your forgiveness because there are posters here that only look at a starting 9 and the rest are break glass in case of emergency utilization. I assumed that was where the discussion was headed. I want the players to make the determination for the front office with performance. I don't want the front office to make pre-determined choices and sticking with them because they are wrong often enough. Player evaluation is a hard job. I don't want struggling players walking past the lineup card because they know that their name will be somewhere on it. I don't mind the team paying Gallo 11M and Kepler 8.5. I do mind if they pay them 11M and 8.5 to take the team down.

I'll reserve judgement until the off-season is complete. I will miss Luis Arraez. I'm a big fan and I thought he was a consistent source of helping the team win and I think he will need to be replaced. My expectation is another trade will happen down the line. This time it will be a starter pitcher for a hitter. 40 man is a little over full with starters at the moment and the starting lineup is a little light on top of the order guys at the moment. I'll keep eating my popcorn and watching.

Last April... Nick Gordon started 13 out of 21 games. They got him in the lineup. If you are OK getting him in the lineup. We are not in disagreement.

OMG? I have seen those articles... However... I am not inclined to go down this rabbit hole again. This inclination to draw conclusions based on little bits of information from someone getting fed nformation that someone wants fed to them... isn't going to work with me. After you have read the articles, tweets. Can you answer these questions? How interested are these teams? Are these interested teams willing to take on all 8.5M and give up a significant player in return? That would suggest significant interest. Are they willing to give up a player that they will DFA eventually or a low level prospect in return? That would suggest minimal interest? Are they asking the Twins to pay a portion or all of the 8.5M like they did with Rogers? That certainly changes the equation and level of interest. Are they looking to shed a bad contract in return for Kepler? Are these rumored teams still interested... Maybe they have addressed that need in another way and moved on? Are the Twins still trying to trade Kepler or have they moved on? Are the Twins kicking tires or are they actively making phone calls every day trying to move him off the roster? If they are trying to move him off the roster is it a salary dump because they would like that 8.5 million off the books and hoping someone would be willing to take on that payroll. Are they trying to move him off the roster because they are trying to balance the roster? If you haven't read an article suggesting interest in Nick Gordon does that mean that nobody is interested? Does it mean that the Twins are not letting Gordon go but yet willing to let Kepler go? If so... What does that mean? If you can... would you be so kind and let us all know the answers to the questions listed above. We would all like to know the answers. If you can't... Don't OMG me or use words like "FACT". Because all you have is the same information that I have.

He jumped before the warning track. The Ball wouldn't have reached the wall in the air in my opinion. If we assume that the location of the ball will dictate when you jump and where you land. How does an experienced outfielder not miss the wall?

But going into a season, you can't expect your best players not to be the best. In my opinion... going into a season, you can't expect any front office or manager to possess the ability to identify which players are going to be the best. If they could identify which players are going to be the best. They would have an advantage over the other 29 front offices who can't do it with 100% certainty either. If they could identify which players are going to be the best. Going into the 2022 season. Gordon would have been placed above Kepler last year because Gordon was the best. Pagan would not have been allowed to blow 4 games against the Cleveland Guardians. If the season plays out and they aren't the best then you move on from them How does this prep the players who will replace them? I mean if the Twins don't expect them to be the best on the Twins then why would some team like the Marlins or any other team for that matter want them at all? Why would teams be considering these guys for trades if the Twins don't even consider them to be the best on the team? Do they? Do you have inside information on who the Marlins or any team is asking for? What are they willing to give up in return? How do you expect the Marlins to want a player like Gordon if you continue to bench him after he out performs the guy you are starting? If Gordon performs better at the minimum with 5 years of control than the guy with 1 year of control at 8M. Which player carries more value in a potential trade?