Riverbrian

I’m not saying it’s on Baldelli. I have no idea what happens in the room. But it’s on the group dynamic that made the decision collectively. Dobnak was called up in August and was used sparingly (20 innings)while Perez pitched every 5th day. The bottom had to fall out to give Dobnak the ball. At the very latest. The very second they didn’t acquire a starter in a trade to replace Perez they needed to begin the search internally for a Perez replacement. Instead they hitched to a struggling Perez and locked into it. Now we are staring at a raffle drum selection hoping to get lucky. We might.

I agree with everything you say with the exception of the highlighted part. I've stated on multiple occasions that just because you have Kershaw or Chris Sale... it doesn't mean the other team is just going to lay down and die. They increase your odds but it doesn't mean that the dice doesn't come up snake eyes. Once the playoff starts it's small sample size on steroids... It is quite possible that Mookie Betts under performs while Steve Pearce wins you a world series title. A bloop that falls in or a rocket that is snagged or a blown call by the umpire can influence the result of the game and the star status of the player will have nothing to do with it. The part I disagree with is: Yes you can prepare for it. Not only can you prepare for it... You have to prepare for it. No, you can't prepare for the Kershaw 5 plus ERA but you can prepare for who gets a roster spot from the fringes and we have a lot of fringe on the mound. You can prepare for who increases your odds. You can prepare for the simple question... who is the better pitcher or player when trying to set a playoff roster. And yes, you can prepare for injuries and suspensions because injuries and suspensions consistently happen and not prepping for them is not taking note that they consistently happen. Right now, the front office is looking over the 40 man roster and deciding who gets on the 25 man roster spot for the playoffs. Odorizzi, Berrios, Rogers, Romo, Duffey, May and Littell should be givens providing they stay healthy this final week. They need at least 4 more arms... maybe 5. Who gets those 4 spots and who doesn't? Gibson? Perez? Smeltzer? Dobnak? Thorpe? Graterol? Stashak? It's playoff time and the who gets those 4 spots question is critical. Wouldn't it be beneficial information to have more data than 20 MLB innings before throwing Dobnak to the playoff wolves. We are all scared to death of Gibson with his health and recent performance and we should all know by now that Perez isn't good enough and now we have to staff the playoff roster with players who were not allowed the opportunity to beat out Gibson or Perez. Who do you choose? The best example I can give you is on the offensive side. What if Arraez was treated like Dobnak was? What if Arraez was only given 20 AB's and after going 9 for 20 at the plate in a couple of starts, he was then held to late game replacement duty during blowouts? What if Arraez was not given any opportunity to be better than Schoop or even Adrianza? The answer is Arraez would not be on the playoff roster under that scenerio unless mulitple people were hurt and now you are rolling the dice with Arraez on the roster, probably sitting anyway, not knowing if he will be the Arraez that we have actually seen because he was given the chance to better than Schoop. This is what happened to Dobnak and Smeltzer. We don't know if Dobnak or Smeltzer is better than Perez. But we do know that Perez isn't good enough. What Baldelli is doing on the offensive side of things... he must do on the mound and he hasn't and we are sitting here with Perez as our #3 starter or guessing if Dobnak or Smeltzer should take his place as the #3. Perez wasn't good enough to keep either from finding out! Now we have to guess on the eve of the playoffs. Keeping Perez in the rotation all the way to late September with a 6 plus ERA since the all-star break is the equivalent of letting Logan Morrison play every day last year. Find someone better. Their performance isn't good enough. Don't get me wrong... I am over the moon happy with our front office. The change from last year to this year is bone breaking and exactly what I asked for with the position players. Now lets' do the same with the pitching staff and my posts are meant to be constructive criticisms.

If the manager does not trust a pitcher for high leverage situations. That pitcher should not be on the playoff roster. End of Story. Every inning is high leverage come playoff time.

I believe they have spreadsheets of data with plenty of information that suggest what you are suggesting. I believe the use of that data is important when it comes to making decisions with a higher likelihood of success but I do not believe they have this down to an exact science and I don't think they believe it is down to an exact science either because they know that mistakes have happened. If the data they have suggests that Perez is the best they got. If the data they have suggests that Dobnak or Smeltzer spin rates, velocity, movement, pitch sequencing at the AAA level and small sample of MLB work can't beat what Perez has done at the major league level. Then the only conclusion is that they have willfully understaffed this team. Perez has a 5.92 ERA since the all star break in 62 innings. Dobnak as 22 innings and a 2.01 ERA since the All-Star Break. Devin Smeltzer has a 3.95 ERA in 27 innings since the All-Star Break. The only thing we know is that Perez isn't getting it done and it's the eve of the playoffs and we know that Dobnak and Smeltzer have been better but we don't have enough information to feel secure about them. If the data suggests that Perez should be pitching better so they keep giving him the ball every 5 days into late late September just in case he does pitch as the data suggests. What good is the data? It's just data that has led to consistently the opposite of what the data says it should be and they've let the data lead them into an issue that must be addressed on the eve of the playoffs. That same data has led to the signing and high leverage pitching appearances of Blake Parker and the subsequent release of Blake Parker. It isn't fool proof. The data is important... the actual results on the field don't always match the data and the results on the field is ultimately much more important. So here we are... We have Odorizzi and Berrios. Will the Twins just throw Perez out of habit or in support of the data. Or are they going to bullpen this thing outside of Berrios and Odorizze due to lack of other options? I think they are going to bullpen... I believe that they have left themselves no choice. It's quite possible that they would have ended up with no other choice in the end but it shouldn't be a surprise to anyone that someone in the rotation got hurt (Gibson) suspended (Pineda) and is pitching below MLB Quality (Perez). This stuff happens all the time. I'm ok with bullpen games, I'm not afraid of bull-penning games in the playoffs. I watched the Brewers do it successfully last year. However, the one thing that is clear to me. They have left themselves with this option and this option only and they did so willfully. If the data did that? That produces a big question mark concerning the data.

This is what they have to do. They have left themselves in no other position. We simply don't have enough information on Dobnak or Smeltzer to hand either of them the ball in the playoffs. However, we do have enough information on Gibson and Perez to know that we shouldn't hand them the ball in the playoffs as traditional starters. I am typing this as the game starts with Perez on the mound and I am saying that it doesn't matter if he throws a shutout this afternoon. We have enough data and that data suggests that Perez should not be a planned starter for the playoffs. I have no problem with a bullpen game, in fact, I believe they work. But, I really wish (I've been stating this since June)... we had more innings and therefore information on what kind of pitcher Dobnak or Smeltzer will be so it wasn't such a reach into the raffle drum come playoff time. The natural reaction to Dobnak from most will be based on a "Who is this guy" uncomfortableness. As far as Dobnak is concerned... Take a look at what he did this year in the minors and the pros. Then do the same with Zach Plesac of the Indians. You will notice a lot of similarities. I'm not saying that Dobnak could be Plesac... I'm saying I don't know but I am saying that both were unranked prospects... One was handed the ball at the MLB level (Plesac) and one wasn't (Dobnak). And I'm saying that it is absolutely possible that Dobnak is a better pitcher right now... When we need him to be than Perez is and better than Gibson currently is. Possible... but yet... we don't know and this is unfortunate.

Milwaukee Brewers 2018? It’s here. Now we wait for the other clubs to notice or consider it may not be a fluke.

I think it makes sense to manage his innings next year and I think it does. The easiest way to manage his innings is to make him a pitcher and forget starter or set up guy designations. Don’t make him throw 6 innings as a starter when he pitches and don’t limit him to 1 inning as a reliever when he pitches. We will be losing a lot of innings that have to be replaced next year if Odorizzi, Pineda, Gibson and Perez go away. You can try shove arms into the traditional 5 man rotation model created by past generations or... you can be like Steve Jobs and create something new and effective. Just call them pitchers and find 15 good ones and divide the innings up based on performance. Think differently. The teams that have been are consistently winning.

I was at the game with Blake and my two sons. It was a great birthday for me with great company. I’ll go to game with Blake anytime.

I have been equal parts: A. Excited about the playoffs B. Nervous about making the playoffs All Year Long and I'm not changing now.

Yeah... I'd like to see a major league OF make that play but I believe Rosario has struggled with that same ball multiple times this year. It seems to me that Rosario is perceived as an OF so when he doesn't make the play we don't get the out of position comments, while Arraez is perceived as a 2B and when he doesn't make that play... it is followed by out of position comments.These declarations are too simple in a complicated world. I fully agree with you that they should continue to work on OF and IF. He's 22 and he can grow any direction you let him.. the team just has to let him. Multi positions is a positive for the team and positive for young Luis Arraez. If he can play multiple positions we can entertain such thoughts as bringing Schoop or even Dozier back (I'm not saying we should) or letting Nick Gordon win a job (Not saying he will). I'm just saying that it increases our options. The opposite of that is giving him the 2B job with no altervative, living and dying with the results, baring the brunt of a sophomore slump if it happens with no place to turn. I love Arraez... I'm buying his stock but I love him even more with an insurance policy and he can become that insurance policy by playing multiple positions. I am sure Rocco has a preference to where he plays... it seems that preference is 2B. But, we should all see by simply watching how injuries and matchups have caused the need for Arraez to play elsewhere and it's working. Yeah, we got Marwin but we can all see that presence of Marwin isn't enough to eliminate the need for flexibility from Arraez or Astudillo. I'm still not ready to declare any of his current defensive metrics stable for any definition at his young age, due to not enough data to stabilize it. It's a small sample size in total made up of a bunch of smaller sample sizes by playing multiple positions. I don't think we should pay any attention to his UZR at the moment. Last night's play notwithstanding, he has been making plays in the field at all positions but I will fully admit that he isn't Buxton or Kepler in the OF or the greatest 2B on earth. Like you said... let him continue on his current path.

Berrios, Odorizzi and Bull-Penning would be my recommendation.

When I read the list with Arraez at #29... I couldn't help thinking that the list was just some guy who couldn't let go of previous minor league projections no matter how they performed in the big leagues. I'm sure there were some adjustments and some trading of spots but... I don't know... Who knows what the future holds but Arraez at #29 and Urias at #15 after you look at the MLB production tells me that in the eyes of Jim Callis... what they did this year, doesn't matter to Jim Callis. I also think that Jordan Alveraz and Tatis have earned the right to leap frog past Vlad. Vlad might be a once in a generation type player but Alveraz and Tatis looks once in a generational to. Tatis is 5 (top of the pile) tools and they were all on display at the MLB level at age 20 while Vlad looks like he needs a little more cooking. I agree that Reynolds wan't respected... and where is Aquino on the list? Yaz should be a consideration.

You always post quality stuff and when you posting stats, I always know that you are well informed. However, I'm not sure that I can buy any statement that states that defensive metrics are more reliable than offensive metrics. Both have volatility but unlike offense... the primary data that goes into defensive stats are routine plays which makes each (not routine) play carry much more weight than an 0-4 night at the plate. And it is going to take a lot of routine plays to reverse the damage done by one play not made that is caught by 95% of all fielders for example and as you mention... the extreme shifting is changing what 95% of all fielders means because they are no longer starting in the typical spots. Currently Marwin for example: UZR 5.0 in LF 23 plays UZR -2.9 in RF 40 plays. Anything that presents this big a difference between LF and RF is small sample related. In the case of Arraez, his playing time is split between 2B, 3B, LF and SS which makes each UZR or DRS number questionable due to insufficient data. Also... The ability to play 4 positions is value in itself but it's a value with no number to quantify it. I've watched him play a lot this year. At no point have I said to myself... Rosario would have had that, Schoop would have had that or Sano would have had that. It's my opinion that Arraez is not a defensive liability. Actually a defensive asset because of his ability to make the routine plays at multiple positions.

Im staying the obvious bit When the starters are knocking out innings like they were in April and May. it leaves less innings for the bullpen to throw and fresher arms. When that dynamic changes as it has abruptly in September the unavailability of relievers appears. It becomes a paradigm shift on a dime. This World Series will be won by our bullpen.

I could be wrong but I thought it was a curveball that he hung for the homer.

Is there really enough defensive data to fairly label him as anything defensively? This narrative is being repeated over and over again and it really doesn’t match the eye test.

crime /krīm/ noun an action or omission that constitutes an offense that may be prosecuted by the state and is punishable by law. The other team is trying to win. We don’t get to do what we want at all times or we would be 162-0. Last night went in the W column. The team battled back. Good experience for the playoffs.

His plate discipline is currently best on the team at age 22. He's 22 so his power is still developing. I don't care what the defensive metrics say. I've watched almost every game... I can't recall any moment where he could be perceived as a defensive liability at any of the positions he has played. I'm buying stock.

I’ve stated it many times so it’ll come to no surprise. I have same worry about every player next year. I say hedge your bets with depth just in case.

I think you make a decent point. Personally I’d just have a hard time pinch hitting for Arraez ever.

It occurred to me this morning that it feels good to be on this side of the magic number for a change.

The most that Cleveland can reach with 12 games left is 99 wins. 100 wins for the Twins sounds perfect.

We are agreed on Littell. I'd like to see him get some higher leverage appearances so I know that Baldelli agrees with us. On Gibson and Perez... I can't see it. I wouldn't be opposed to it but I can't see it because it would be a 180 from how the team has treated them. The club ran right up to the wire with these guys throwing significant innings. A 5 man rotation with those two representing 40% of that rotation. I can't see them just changing course on a dime. Gibson and Perez were given every opportunity no matter the results... The club is trying to make them succeed. It would actually bother me now, if they pulled the plug on Gibson and Perez at this late stage, even if I think it should be considered. Littell bounced between the minors and majors and was almost always the last option for high leverage. Even during the dark days of July when we sent 4 relievers away for nothing. The club has just shown me different by action. Other than that... I agree with you.

The bullpen is deep for the moment. Once the playoff roster gets set it’ll be a little different. Do they keep Stashak or Smeltzer or Littell. More data is necessary to make that decision. Until they hand the ball to Smeltzer or Dobnak and allow them to pitch as many innings as they allow Perez to throw. Bullpenning seems like an accurate term.

I’ve stated multiple times that I wish the Twins would have already had more MLB info on Dobnak and Smeltzer. I don’t buy any assumption that Perez is better. He might be but his bar isn’t hard to clear. He has an ERA over 5 since June. Those are not numbers to lock into and say we have no need for improvement. With Gibson being a question mark and Pineda out. Perez has gone from 5th best to 3rd best by default. We could have prepped for this better. Bullpen games will be what we do now for at least one spot in the rotation and I’m Ok with this because of current team context. But with Gibson throwing yesterday... I’m wondering if we don’t bullpen two spots in the rotation.