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Riverbrian

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Everything posted by Riverbrian

  1. I think you are correct. The Twins have the room in the budget to spend some cash. You are also right that it is getting increasingly harder to spend our financial resources on pitching as names drop off the board. Pitching may have to be addressed via trade leaving some cash to improve the team offensively. It is very solid logic from the Twins current context that you are making. However, in the assessment of the current market for Donaldson... I do have a different opinion from yours. The Nats need power, they are under the CBT and historically not really afraid of the CBT. As things stand today for the Nats... They have Kendrick at 1B, Difo at 2B, Kieboom at 3B and Turner at SS and nobody interesting behind those 4 to compete or share time. The Nats are the very definition of a team that is offensive desperate enough with the resources to pay the 4 years Donaldson is asking. They need to look at Donaldson plus a 1B or 2B or all three. They don't have much choice. The Braves agree are in great shape. They have Riley who can play 3B and Culberson and Carmargo plus decent options across the infield with Swanson, Albies and Freeman. Yes, Donaldson would make them even stronger, deeper and they'd love to have him but they don't have to pay the 4 years Donaldson is asking because they can add offense almost anywhere across the diamond with money or trade because they have young pitching coming out of their ears. I don't see the Braves. The Dodgers are absolutely not afraid to move Turner anywhere and it will be no factor in their decision to add Donaldson or trade for Profar or do anything to make the team better. They can sign Donaldson and have Turner play some 1B while Muncy plays whatever. They can trade for Lindor and move Seager to 2B or 3B and Turner to 1B or wherever. They Dodgers do this sort of thing all the time. They just want good players on good terms. However... The Dodgers as they stand today can do absolutely nothing this off season and make the playoffs in 2020 with relative ease.They can wait until the trade deadline to pick up a difference maker. They they do not have to cave to Donaldson's 4 year ask or to the Indians asking for Lux, Verdugo and May for Lindor. The same goes for Bumgarner... the Dodgers don't have to pay 5 years for Bumgarner because they have a 5 man rotation with 4 pitchers in the minors who can replace those guys. They will try to bring Bumgarner in to make that rotation potentially better but they don't have to pay 5 years and will probably try to land him with less years. And if they don't get him... they don't get him. They have no need to over pay anywhere. The Twins on the other hand just might have to overpay in order to land Bumgarner because this is where our desperation is. But... they do not have to add Donaldson because our offensive depth doesn't force desperation... especially with Larnach, Rooker, Kiriloff and Lewis knocking on the door. IMO... Josh Donaldson should be shopping for a place to live in Northern Virginia right about now.
  2. Absolutely every day of the week and twice on Sunday. However, failure to do so means... We must pay at this moment.
  3. Yes In theory, the Cron spot on the roster could be filled by a player who plays a different position. Any position. We don't have to limit ourselves to replacing Cron with a 1B only and therefore settling for a Bird dice roll. We don't have to shove Arraez into a static 2B role to replace the Schoop roster spot either? We also don't have to take name Marwin a starter anywhere either and take away his flexibility? The Twins can absolutely consider the best player regardless of position and acquire whoever that is. Mookie Betts could absolutely be the guy who replaces Cron. The current Twins roster could make this work... rather smoothly.
  4. I'll say it again. If Astudillo simply stops swinging at crap. If he learns to work the pitcher, while continuing to improve at the catcher position. With those contact skills. We will all see a rocket in terms of value increase. You keep this guy... you work with him... you fix him.
  5. When you research the trade history of Terry Ryan over the past decade and then compare it to the other 29 teams during the same time period. The Twins were an orange pylon. The new front office has changed this. A new player acquisition door has opened and the tree has the sunlight needed to grow.
  6. My question is quite simple. What has changed between now and when the Twins were really trying to minimize his use in August and Early September? 28 Innings? I am all for getting Dobnak a chance to show us that he is better than we think. I believe he might be better than we think. It's possible, I won't doubt the guy but we don't know and the front office doesn't know. However... it would be bad roster management and a pure dice roll to plan your 2020 opening day roster with Dobnak taking one of the spots after trying really really hard not to utilize him 28 innings ago. It's 2020... It's a pivotal year... Don't mess around. Sign or trade for some arms with a track record. This is what contending teams do in the off-season. They don't mess around.
  7. It's nice to have a catcher who has caught Robbie Ray. Just sayin'.
  8. Doesn't the article talk about what the front office has done with it's resources? Limited resources or not. The article doesn't mention Dave St. Peter or Jim Pohlad. I agree that being a blogger doesn't make anyone more credible. However... Responding to an article about THIS front office by just tossing it into a "20 year" implied systematic lowering of expectations. Implies (to me at least) that you either: A. Didn't read the article B. Didn't care what the article said because you have a 20 year opinion that trumps any adjustments the new front office has made in 3 years, when the current front office and what they might do was the focus of the article. Either way... your response had very little to do with the article itself. Unless, you were just trying to reduce the article as worthless because you believe that there is just "no hope" and you just wanted to type that for those like Ted who have hope.
  9. Super Utility is real. The National League MVP is Super Utility. If an MVP award doesn't legitimize the concept... I don't what else will.
  10. I'm a value guy... I frequently question why you would pay a guy millions if a guy making 600K can produce the same. However... when it comes to free agency. You can’t approach it with a spreadsheet. If you want the guy, you got to outbid the other guy. The guy's agent and the other guys bidding for him may not be aware or care what your spreadsheet says. Hard lines will force you to sign your 6th choice instead of your 1st choice.
  11. This is the best description of free agency on the planet.
  12. Based on the research I'm seeing. Santa has to deliver to approximately 6 thousand kids a second. In order to get that many presents delivered that fast, the only thing that makes sense to me. There would have to be some throwing of the presents involved. This takes velocity, accuracy and almost perfect rapid fire mechanics. In other words... there is no way he is doing this by Reindeer and foot speed alone. The guy can no doubt throw.
  13. I continue to not understand why others don't seem to understand. We all saw it last year. We all watched Baldelli move the pieces around and we had to see the benefit it produced. Arraez played, 2B, 3B, SS and LF in 2019 and yet we can't help trying to put him into a static role for 2020 and checking that box as filled. You can quote all the defensive stats you want and call him sub-par. We watched the games... Arraez did not kill us defensively and the fact that he could man four different positions, helped us tremendously defensively. By splitting 4 positions in less than a full season... he isn't going to get enough time at any of the positions to get defensive stat accuracy. Put those Arraez defensive stats down and simply think back to the games you watched. It should come back to you that his defense didn't kill us. He can play 4 positions decently... why would anyone want to take that skill away from him? Sano to 1B... OK... but why do we need to take away his ability to play 3B so he plays 1B everyday? He can play both. If you want to get Garver some more AB's... Garver can play some 1B and Sano can shift over to 3B to make room when he does. Maybe Rooker gets hot and can play some 1B and Sano can shift to 3B to make room. Why would you take away his ability to play 3B so he can just stand in one spot and restrict movement from other players on the team? The 2019 Twins used flexibility to their advantage and produced 101 wins. We watched it... It went well... Why do we want to go back to the old way, especially when that old way didn't work so well?
  14. I am of the opinion that contending teams have to be deep enough so the loss of one player (no matter who the player is) or two or three will not kill you. Losing Byron Buxton... Tough blow... would love to have had him on the playoff roster. However... He is just one guy. Specific injuries are impossible to predict but an injury with someone somewhere somehow is pretty damn easy to predict because it happens every day, month and year. Buxton getting hurt or Yelich getting hurt should never cripple a club to the point of saying... Yeah we would have won if Yelich was around to hit 5 home runs in the playoffs. The main "What If" moment or at least pivotal moment in 2019 was the Trade Deadline. When the Twins failed to acquire a starter at the deadline... they failed to deepen the rotation. Once they failed to acquire a starter, they followed that by failing to deepen the rotation from the system. Once they failed to deepen the rotation from outside or inside the system, they were left vulnerable to the predictable, happens every year, routine stress points of Gibson (Health), Pineda (Suspension), Perez (Not Performing). A team can navigate the playoffs with just 3 starters. Once they were left vulnerable, this led to starting Randy Dobnak in game two of the playoffs after trying really hard not to start him during the regular season. Once they decided to start Randy Dobnak, this led to a strict bullpen plan to manage Randy Dobnak's start. Once they decided on a strict bullpen plan to help manage Randy Dobnak's (we don't have confidence in you) playoff start, this led to complete chaos in the bullpen in Game One after Baldelli had to turn to it sooner than he would have liked. None of these "Once they decided" points I'm making are the complete reason they lost in the playoffs nor would the trading for a pitcher at the deadline been any type of guarantee that the Twins would have done better in the playoffs. However... IMO... The True... "What If" moment occurred at the trade deadline when they did not pick up significant depth for a rotation that had been healthy until the deadline. It's a mistake I hope they learned from as we get ready for the World Series Title in 2020.
  15. I can understand... The thinking with all these plans to move Sano to 1B. What I can't understand is... Any plan of moving Sano to 1B and then removing all trace of his ability to play 3B.
  16. I agree with this as well. As I throw support toward Astudillo as a catcher... I also know that injuries can change things on a dime. All I can do is hope that they find someone better than Wilson for AAA or hope that Jeffers has Helium.
  17. WIth Astudillo... I don't have any deal breaking defensive concerns. I'm not going to claim he's a master pitch framer or expert when it comes to handling the pitching staff but I will say that I didn't see anything that suggests that he costs the Twins from a defensive standpoint behind the plate either. When it comes to offense... I'll say it again. If Astudillo can exhibit plate discipline and this is just a matter of finding that specific light switch... His value would rise quickly and beyond what many of us imagine it could be because his offense would be so far above what typical catchers produce. I'm normally the guy who encourages multiple position ability. In the case of Astudillo... I think they should focus on catcher almost exclusively because catcher value is so inflated. Work on his defense at the catcher position extensively and get him to stop swinging at crap because he has clearly demonstrated that he can make consistent contact... therefore just try to eliminate the contact that he shouldn't be making contact with. The end result could be a .300 hitting catcher, increased OBP with walks added to the equation, double digit dingers and decent while not elite defense. If you take that profile and compare it to the profiles of other typical catchers around the league. He would rise to near the top of the pile rather quickly. You have a player who can help you win games while on the roster and a player who could also bring back a big return should you trade him. Just look at the contract Grandal signed, look at the trade package Realmuto brought to the Marlins. No I'm not saying that Astudillo will become Grandal or Realmuto but I am saying that Catcher Value is inflated due to position scarcity over pay. Catcher... Don't overpay for them... Grow your own and let other teams over pay you for them.
  18. I've spent a large majority of my professional life working and analyzing demographics. Bottom Line: Baseball needs to grow outside of the limited current base. Actually, in my opinion... Baseball desperately needs this. The current demo's are scary for the future. This means attracting the basically untapped female audience and younger audiences. The fact that Baseball is overwhelmingly older and male doesn't mean that Baseball should pander exclusively to this limited base because you get what you pay for. If you want to attract more females and if you want to attract younger viewers and baseball should want that. If baseball needs to change (It does). These now needed demographics should have a strong voice in the direction of the change. Your first step would be to hire more females and younger employees and listen to them.
  19. It certainly is... but not directly anymore. The discussion has started to evolve away from Rosario specifically and I think the subject is interesting so I was hoping that everyone would be able to focus on this discussion in it's own spot. I believe this debate is important and interesting. If you want to continue on the Rosario topic... You can and you can still use the points you are making. In a nutshell, I just believe you started a great separate topic so I started a thread to house it.
  20. The side discussion on Prospects has been moved to it's own thread in the "Other Baseball" forum.
  21. As long as he maintains that plate discipline. His production should remain. People often talk about the veteran role model. This would be a case of a younger role model. Our older players can take notes while watching a younger player getting things done by not swinging at crap. The kid was fantastic at putting good wood on the pitches he should put good wood on. I don;t know what tomorrow brings but I'll bet on him.
  22. Anything is possible. Your post is just as legit as mine. I was shocked to see Syndergaard on the trading block followed by an acquisition of Stroman by the Mets. Things like that demonstrate that the road to be traveled is not always clear and defined. If I was the GM of the Marlins, I wouldn't be trying to acquire expensive FA bats yet (like is being rumored) but I'm not sure that I would give up young pitching yet either because those young pitchers should have helium to inflate to higher value or at least still be in place when it is time to acquire expensive FA bats. In other words... If I was to part with one of my young pitchers... the return would have to be high enough to be worth the possible deviation in the plan.
  23. You trade Rosario if the return makes the 2020 Twins better. I can't see that happening but if possible... Yeah go ahead obviously. Short of that... He will be on the roster in 2020 and he will help us win games. He has talent and he can really really exhibit even more talent if he improves that plate discipline.
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