Riverbrian

The weight being placed on the shoulders of Alex Kirilloff is off the charts. I hope everyone is right and I am able to watch him be what we hope he will be.

Devin Smeltzer threw 140 innings for the Minnesota Twins. 9 Wins - 4 Losses Career ERA: 3.99 and he made the major league minimum and was never considered for a spot in the rotation of his own. Meanwhile, Dylan Bundy threw 140 innings for the Minnesota Twins in 2022. 8 Wins - 8 Losses: ERA 4.89. We paid him 4 million plus the 1 million buyout and he was never in danger of losing his spot in the rotation. If I was Devin... It would be hard not to extend a middle finger as I left for Miami.

They were absolutely meat and potatoes for our favorite team last year. I shudder to think about how bad the offense would have been 2nd Half without them. Miranda led the team in AB's post all-star break. Gordon was 5th in AB's post all-star break. Let's look at that list (2nd half OPS) with an eye toward 2023: #1 - Miranda (OPS .759) - Back #2 - Correa (OPS .866) - Back... Almost Gone... But Back #3 - Arraez (OPS .714) - Gone #4 - Urshela (OPS .828) - Gone #5 - Gordon (OPS .780) - Back #6 - Sanchez (OPS .620) - Gone #7 - Cave (OPS .644) - Gone #8 - Celestino (OPS .582) - Back (better be in AAA to start the season) #9 - Kepler (OPS .467) - Back Also receiving votes: Polanco, Buxton, Garlick, Wallner, Kirilloff. Jeffers We will need them again in 2023. Farmer, Vazquez, Gallo and Taylor are the additions to that pile of 2nd half OPS.

When I went in for mine one of these was sitting nearby. I was about to ask about it but he asked me to count backwards from a 100... I remember saying wait wait and then I woke up in a different room.

Options The answer is options. Ober goes down for the crime of having options... therefore, he can be stashed for depth while Gray, Mahle and Maeda can't be stashed. We will need that depth because the odds of 5 starters making it through the season are slim to none. If Ober stays healthy and productive... we will see a lot of him this year.

I was sleeping in med school so I really can't answer this question... However, my assumption is yes. People like to talk about the old days and how pitchers used to be able to throw a million innings a year but we are at a whole new level now from the old days. It was celebrated decades ago if the rare pitcher hit 97 mph. 100... maybe 1 or 2. We got a bunch of those guys now. Is this more than the human body is capable of sustaining? ... like I said... I was sleeping in med school but my assumption is Yes. If we have seen an increase in the 100 mph arms... you have to assume that everyone has bumped up their ceilings. The 94 mph guy from yesteryear is throwing 100 now. The 87 MPH guy from yesteryear is hitting 93MPH and maybe that is beyond his sustainability. Today's play throws harder, runs faster, jumps higher than the player from past decades. Maybe we have crossed a line. Just spitballing because I was sleeping in med school.

High demand, low supply, high injury frequency will produce incredible costs to acquire very little. The Twins currently have 9 decent starters. Other teams are stock piling starters beyond 5 because nobody can keep them healthy. This just increases the demand and lowers the supply even more. If you are going to corner a market... this is the corner to focus on.

There is another thread that is talking about having to move Kepler because of a log jam and here we have a concern about runners not being on base at the bottom of the order. There is no reason to roster a Freddie Patek type anymore. We better hit 1 through 9.

I was giggling when I typed it.

Last year, we had a chorus of complaints about how long our starters were on the mound. I could see the taxation on the bullpen and I would have loved to complain about it but I kept thinking about the analytics department. The Twins have these employees who analyze stuff. We know they do and that stuff that they analyze is going to make it's way to field level and then utilized. If it doesn't make it to field level there is very little reason to have these employees who analyze stuff. If the manager ignores the stuff... there is very little reason to have the manager remain in place. They either work together or the manager or the department has to go. Personally... I wouldn't know where to begin to research the effects of rest (positive or negative) on each individual player but there is a part of me that is hoping that data like that is being researched by someone in these large analytic departments and the information is making it to field level and utilized appropriately and then I hope that results of that utilization is then reanalyzed by someone else in these large analytic departments and improved upon. Then as soon as you got Delmon Young all figured out. The coaches... we employ lots of them who are all employed for the purpose of making players better. Well... those guys make Delmon Young better and the data points change. 😀

I've spend a lot of time thinking about such things. My wife complains because I forget to take the garbage out because I'm thinking about such things instead and she is right... it has absolutely no benefit to me at all. She'd rather I take out the garbage or at least monetize the things that I think about. 😀 What have I concluded... Everybody needs it. You often hear about the need for players to "work themselves through a slump". Sounds sensible but the problem is that you have to endure the slump while you allow certain players to work through it and some players barely snap out of it leaving you with a ball of nothing and nice draft position. Regular playing time ends up being this fluid explanation for nearly every scenario that rolls down the hill. It can be applied as an explanation or not applied at the convenience of whoever can use it to plead each particular case. I've basically simplified it to one thing. Give all players the chance to earn playing time and keep providing playing time to those who earn it.

Agreed and I really appreciate the topic. The "Matt Stairs effect". I love it.

In hindsight it looks like he should have been placed on the D.L and then maybe we have him for September. I was sleeping during med school but I agree with you because whatever they tried with Buxton last year... didn't work. They were careful and he still ended up being out for the stretch run. I heard Rocco say that Buxton was giving it everything he had but he could barely walk into the locker room some days. Was it the inconsistent playing time... or was it the knee injury itself? I often hear about the importance of consistent playing time and it makes all the sense in the world when you hear it. Rhythm... Timing has to be important... it passes the common sense test. Boras was telling everybody that Gallo's struggles were playing time related. If only Gallo could get regular playing time. However, it only seemingly applies to certain players. Buxton it applies to because his numbers were not what we expected. Rob Refsnyder it does not apply to. Rob is that .300 hitter that you said can't happen. https://www.espn.com/mlb/player/gamelog/_/id/33411/rob-refsnyder It applies to Joey Gallo but it doesn't apply to Kyle Garlick and all of the short side platoon guys. Garlick is expected to mash lefties with 28% playing time. It applies to the chosen starting 9 on all 30 teams but it doesn't apply to the 4 bench guys. If you rest them, they will lose that comfort/rhythm/timing and those 4 bench guys will be expected to perform on a Sunday afternoon after sitting Monday through Saturday. Of course... we would never see a player perform worse in August and September or in the playoffs with regular playing time as a cure all but yet we do. We would never see a player go on a hot streak after returning from injury and yet we do. It makes all the sense in the world when it is expressed. Real life? I'm not so sure. But, if it is important... with the injuries that occur, we better make sure that all 26 players are getting that comfort rhythm and timing.

Agreed. However, that's a lot to place on the shoulders of someone with 359 career AB's and a career .694 OPS. Kirilloff was important with Arraez on the roster. He becomes importanter with Arraez off the roster. 😀

I agree with you. The margins are awfully thin on the offensive side. Buxton is a health question mark Polanco has been a health question mark. Gallo and Kepler are performance questions marks. Kirilloff and Larnach are both Health and Performance question marks. Gordon and Miranda are sophomores and sophomores... well. Two of the players on the roster will be catchers who don't hit much. I also understand the trade but Arraez needs to be replaced. We need a BAT!

While I am still suffering from ADS (Arraez departure sadness) and I am praying for a replacement in the offense. What you said is often over looked by others and can't be denied. You are 100% correct. We don't have to wait 4 years for Salas to pay major league dividends. He isn't future value... He is value right now.

Last year I remember myself going monkey over the Garver trade. My concern turned out to be premature so I'm trying a more relaxed approach this off-season. 😀

Last Year when the Twins traded Taylor Rogers for Paddack. There were many who were concerned about the loss of Rogers but I was OK with the deal because I thought it was a great value trade. I remember saying... you make that trade for a starter every time. Well... Here I am today... A great value trade was made... perhaps a better value trade than the Paddack deal. They made that trade for a starter... But, now the shoe is on the other foot because I'm not sure how they replace Arraez offensively much like others were not sure how they replace Rogers in the bullpen last year. I guess it's my turn. With that said... the season is still the off-season. The Twins have time to find a replacement for Arraez. As things currently stand Celestino would probably make the 26 man and that can't happen. He was not ready for that duty. We have more starters on the 40 man than we need. I think the Twins will be moving a starter for a hitter before it's all said and done. I'll reserve judgement until the off-season is concluded.

That is one of the most sensible things ever posted on this website. Cheers to you! 😀

I'll reserve judgement until the off-season is complete. I will miss Luis Arraez. I'm a big fan and I thought he was a consistent source of helping the team win and I think he will need to be replaced. My expectation is another trade will happen down the line. This time it will be a starter pitcher for a hitter. 40 man is a little over full with starters at the moment and the starting lineup is a little light on top of the order guys at the moment. I'll keep eating my popcorn and watching.

He jumped before the warning track. The Ball wouldn't have reached the wall in the air in my opinion. If we assume that the location of the ball will dictate when you jump and where you land. How does an experienced outfielder not miss the wall?

How does one sufficiently jump into the wall? https://encrypted-vtbn0.gstatic.com/video?q=tbn:ANd9GcT_NAN6CFf9ZuIAgRo9EyYPrtH8VZV4COvrtQ

I don't like the offensive loss. I'm not sure we can afford that. A replacement for Arraez at the top of the order hasn't identified himself yet. I'm not knocking Lopez but is he better than Ryan? Better than Ober? Better than Gray, Maeda, Mahle? Maybe but by how much if he is? Meanwhile the drop off from Arraez to who replaces him at the top of the order is potentially massive because that guy hasn't identified himself yet.

To be honest... I don't think we can get the starter that we need to get but I have no way of knowing... just an assumption from looking at rosters around the league. We have a lot of starting options on the 40 man right now. Lopez joins the existing pile, he doesn't elevate the pile. What we need is the elite guy like Alcantara and the Marlins are not going to give him up. I doubt any team is going to trade that type of guy at this point of the off-season and even if they would... it would take a hell of a lot more than Arraez. Losing what Arraez gives us offensively for a decent pitcher that just joins the pile would be a mistake in my opinion. You would have to trade pitching to replace him in my opinion.

I agree with your suggestion of perfect world balance. However, waiting until Paddack and Canterino can be placed on the 60 day will severely limit the talent/availably of any position player that you can acquire for one of those spots. Those Paddack and Canterino spots are usually given to players who were released from other teams 40 man roster until they can be given to the next wave (Martin or Lee guys) later on in the season. If we are trading away what Arraez provides offensively... in my opinion, we will need to replace it. This has a better chance of happening in the off-season. Our offense has too many "If's" to trade off one of the few guys who doesn't really have an "If". We know what he brings and we need what he brings. The other guys... we hope they bring what we need them to bring.