Riverbrian

It's good to question these things. Let's look at three guys who played a similar amount of games in 2022, didn't play much and hit terribly when they rarely played. Jermaine Palacios 25 games - OPS+ 19 bWAR -0.7 Miguel Sano 29 Games - OPS+ 3 bWAR -0.8 Mark Contreras 27 Games - OPS+ 24 bWar - 0.0 What did Mark Contreras do in those 49 defensive chances in the OF (less than 2 a game) to avoid the negative dash in front of his bWAR number? Was it one catch in a low probability zone? Was it seven catches in a low probability zone?

I was being flippant with my implication of flippancy.

I was half joking about the middle finger but since you took me seriously... I do agree that Dylan Bundy was a known and proven quantity... Career ERA of 4.74 and we got a 4.89 in 2022. WHIP 1.30 and we got a 1.27 in 2022. Fielding Independent Pitching 4.68 which suggests that those numbers were indeed sustainable. Since Smeltzers 5.23 FIP in 2022 is the stat you have chosen to highlight for sustainability. Dylan Bundy had a FIP of 5.51 in 2021 the year before the Twins signed him. I guess that suggests he was better than the 6.06 ERA he produced in 2021. I'm not making a case for Smeltzer remaining in our rotation this year because I've got 10 pitchers on the current staff that I like better. I'm not even making a case that Smeltzer should have been a guy that we staffed up when putting together the roster in the spring of 2022. But I am saying this... These guys want a major league job and they'd like to keep that job and make it a career... this is the dream... this is what they work for... they want the ball on that hill, they want an organization that believes in them and gives them a chance and they will report to AAA to keep the dream alive but AAA is not where they want to be when they are so close that they can taste it. Smeltzer would have loved the opportunity that Bundy got. Smeltzer I assume would like a multi-year deal that provides income that can set up a family for generations. There is a lot riding on the line for players that we all flippantly call AAAA. Who knows but it would take incredible character to sit and watch Bundy and Archer get the ball time and time again knowing that your performance was better without frustration. It's quite likely that Smeltzer did the smart thing as he departed for Miami but put yourself in his shoes and then consider that I was half joking.

This is a great point. If he is the same hitter as has been the past two years (Same goes for Gallo). We wouldn't want him to replace someone hurt or ineffective because you'd just be replacing ineffective with ineffective. You would cut him much like we cut Duffey last year. Give someone else the chance to help us or develop if we are beyond help. The only way I see it working is if he is productive with the bat and he needs to earn it after two years. If he doesn't... he shouldn't be here in August. Another good point. Last year in August and September we had decent OF defense with Cave, Celestino and Kepler while 5 through 9 (including Sanchez) in the batting order was as offensively unproductive as offensively unproductive can be. This 2 win player measurement helped Cleveland run right past us.

Good Article - Fair Assessment in my opinion. I've been hard on Kepler and I don't want to be hard on him anymore. I truly want him to succeed and I hope he does in a Twins uniform... we can really use a Max Kepler playing above average. If I had Kepler - I wouldn't trade him If I didn't have Kepler - I wouldn't trade for him. We are not in the current position to be skinny with our outfield options. I'm all for giving him the opportunity to win the job... I am against simply giving him the job. It's easy to look at all of these options and say let's clear some people out of there but we need the depth and the competition just to find the players who will get the job done assuming that some might not. Don't want to choose wrong and be left with players who are not hitting with no place to turn. Let them compete and then clear out the ones who lose the competition.

The Brewers didn't trade for an ace. The Brewers developed not one but two aces. Corbin Burnes was a 4th round pick. He was the 21st ranked prospect in the Brewers system in 2017. He was the 69th ranked prospect in baseball one slot behind Fernando Romero in 2018. He was a complete nightmare in 2019 with an 8 plus ERA in the majors and an 8 plus ERA at AAA. Nobody was thinking ACE when 2020 rolled around. In 2020 he found the ACE light switch. No Trades were necessary.

Me To The expectations that I'm picking up on is coming from posters and bloggers.

Yeah... I get that... I'm very pro lots of options in case of injury or struggles. I am very anti Eggs in one Basket in case of injury or struggles. I explained it in a post earlier. It's the expectation that a healthy Kirilloff is going to replace what we lost with Arraez is the weight. Take a load off Arraez... Take a load for free... Take a load off Arraez... And... And... And... You put the load... put the load right on Kirilloff. Robbie Robertson and Levon Helm are better at this sort of thing than I am. 😀

I was sleeping in med school so I can only hope that the procedure went well and that the decision makers are getting accurate reports. 😀 Who knows... We also are hearing reports that they are toe-dipping into Gurriel discussions... who knows how much toe they are dipping and what that means in regards to their confidence level of each individual player on the existing roster. Right now... I'm just reacting to articles and individual posts that seem to suggest that Kirilloff is going knock the ball around the park with the greatest of ease if healthy. I'd be happier with: A. Arraez and Kirilloff together in 2023 or B. Replacement for Arraez with Kirilloff in 2023 I'm nervous about C. Kirilloff making up for what we lost with Arraez. C is a lot of weight is being placed on his shoulders.

I'm not that concerned about who puts on the big glove. Farmer can play 3B and Miranda can play 1B on day one if needed. Gordon can play some 3B to if needed. It's the thought that the offense lost in the Arreaz trade can be easily mitigated by a healthy Kirilloff. That's the incredible weight being placed upon young Alex's shoulders.

The weight being placed on the shoulders of Alex Kirilloff is off the charts. I hope everyone is right and I am able to watch him be what we hope he will be.

Devin Smeltzer threw 140 innings for the Minnesota Twins. 9 Wins - 4 Losses Career ERA: 3.99 and he made the major league minimum and was never considered for a spot in the rotation of his own. Meanwhile, Dylan Bundy threw 140 innings for the Minnesota Twins in 2022. 8 Wins - 8 Losses: ERA 4.89. We paid him 4 million plus the 1 million buyout and he was never in danger of losing his spot in the rotation. If I was Devin... It would be hard not to extend a middle finger as I left for Miami.

They were absolutely meat and potatoes for our favorite team last year. I shudder to think about how bad the offense would have been 2nd Half without them. Miranda led the team in AB's post all-star break. Gordon was 5th in AB's post all-star break. Let's look at that list (2nd half OPS) with an eye toward 2023: #1 - Miranda (OPS .759) - Back #2 - Correa (OPS .866) - Back... Almost Gone... But Back #3 - Arraez (OPS .714) - Gone #4 - Urshela (OPS .828) - Gone #5 - Gordon (OPS .780) - Back #6 - Sanchez (OPS .620) - Gone #7 - Cave (OPS .644) - Gone #8 - Celestino (OPS .582) - Back (better be in AAA to start the season) #9 - Kepler (OPS .467) - Back Also receiving votes: Polanco, Buxton, Garlick, Wallner, Kirilloff. Jeffers We will need them again in 2023. Farmer, Vazquez, Gallo and Taylor are the additions to that pile of 2nd half OPS.

When I went in for mine one of these was sitting nearby. I was about to ask about it but he asked me to count backwards from a 100... I remember saying wait wait and then I woke up in a different room.

Options The answer is options. Ober goes down for the crime of having options... therefore, he can be stashed for depth while Gray, Mahle and Maeda can't be stashed. We will need that depth because the odds of 5 starters making it through the season are slim to none. If Ober stays healthy and productive... we will see a lot of him this year.

I was sleeping in med school so I really can't answer this question... However, my assumption is yes. People like to talk about the old days and how pitchers used to be able to throw a million innings a year but we are at a whole new level now from the old days. It was celebrated decades ago if the rare pitcher hit 97 mph. 100... maybe 1 or 2. We got a bunch of those guys now. Is this more than the human body is capable of sustaining? ... like I said... I was sleeping in med school but my assumption is Yes. If we have seen an increase in the 100 mph arms... you have to assume that everyone has bumped up their ceilings. The 94 mph guy from yesteryear is throwing 100 now. The 87 MPH guy from yesteryear is hitting 93MPH and maybe that is beyond his sustainability. Today's play throws harder, runs faster, jumps higher than the player from past decades. Maybe we have crossed a line. Just spitballing because I was sleeping in med school.

High demand, low supply, high injury frequency will produce incredible costs to acquire very little. The Twins currently have 9 decent starters. Other teams are stock piling starters beyond 5 because nobody can keep them healthy. This just increases the demand and lowers the supply even more. If you are going to corner a market... this is the corner to focus on.

There is another thread that is talking about having to move Kepler because of a log jam and here we have a concern about runners not being on base at the bottom of the order. There is no reason to roster a Freddie Patek type anymore. We better hit 1 through 9.

I was giggling when I typed it.

Last year, we had a chorus of complaints about how long our starters were on the mound. I could see the taxation on the bullpen and I would have loved to complain about it but I kept thinking about the analytics department. The Twins have these employees who analyze stuff. We know they do and that stuff that they analyze is going to make it's way to field level and then utilized. If it doesn't make it to field level there is very little reason to have these employees who analyze stuff. If the manager ignores the stuff... there is very little reason to have the manager remain in place. They either work together or the manager or the department has to go. Personally... I wouldn't know where to begin to research the effects of rest (positive or negative) on each individual player but there is a part of me that is hoping that data like that is being researched by someone in these large analytic departments and the information is making it to field level and utilized appropriately and then I hope that results of that utilization is then reanalyzed by someone else in these large analytic departments and improved upon. Then as soon as you got Delmon Young all figured out. The coaches... we employ lots of them who are all employed for the purpose of making players better. Well... those guys make Delmon Young better and the data points change. 😀

I've spend a lot of time thinking about such things. My wife complains because I forget to take the garbage out because I'm thinking about such things instead and she is right... it has absolutely no benefit to me at all. She'd rather I take out the garbage or at least monetize the things that I think about. 😀 What have I concluded... Everybody needs it. You often hear about the need for players to "work themselves through a slump". Sounds sensible but the problem is that you have to endure the slump while you allow certain players to work through it and some players barely snap out of it leaving you with a ball of nothing and nice draft position. Regular playing time ends up being this fluid explanation for nearly every scenario that rolls down the hill. It can be applied as an explanation or not applied at the convenience of whoever can use it to plead each particular case. I've basically simplified it to one thing. Give all players the chance to earn playing time and keep providing playing time to those who earn it.

Agreed and I really appreciate the topic. The "Matt Stairs effect". I love it.

In hindsight it looks like he should have been placed on the D.L and then maybe we have him for September. I was sleeping during med school but I agree with you because whatever they tried with Buxton last year... didn't work. They were careful and he still ended up being out for the stretch run. I heard Rocco say that Buxton was giving it everything he had but he could barely walk into the locker room some days. Was it the inconsistent playing time... or was it the knee injury itself? I often hear about the importance of consistent playing time and it makes all the sense in the world when you hear it. Rhythm... Timing has to be important... it passes the common sense test. Boras was telling everybody that Gallo's struggles were playing time related. If only Gallo could get regular playing time. However, it only seemingly applies to certain players. Buxton it applies to because his numbers were not what we expected. Rob Refsnyder it does not apply to. Rob is that .300 hitter that you said can't happen. https://www.espn.com/mlb/player/gamelog/_/id/33411/rob-refsnyder It applies to Joey Gallo but it doesn't apply to Kyle Garlick and all of the short side platoon guys. Garlick is expected to mash lefties with 28% playing time. It applies to the chosen starting 9 on all 30 teams but it doesn't apply to the 4 bench guys. If you rest them, they will lose that comfort/rhythm/timing and those 4 bench guys will be expected to perform on a Sunday afternoon after sitting Monday through Saturday. Of course... we would never see a player perform worse in August and September or in the playoffs with regular playing time as a cure all but yet we do. We would never see a player go on a hot streak after returning from injury and yet we do. It makes all the sense in the world when it is expressed. Real life? I'm not so sure. But, if it is important... with the injuries that occur, we better make sure that all 26 players are getting that comfort rhythm and timing.

Agreed. However, that's a lot to place on the shoulders of someone with 359 career AB's and a career .694 OPS. Kirilloff was important with Arraez on the roster. He becomes importanter with Arraez off the roster. 😀

I agree with you. The margins are awfully thin on the offensive side. Buxton is a health question mark Polanco has been a health question mark. Gallo and Kepler are performance questions marks. Kirilloff and Larnach are both Health and Performance question marks. Gordon and Miranda are sophomores and sophomores... well. Two of the players on the roster will be catchers who don't hit much. I also understand the trade but Arraez needs to be replaced. We need a BAT!