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Riverbrian

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Everything posted by Riverbrian

  1. Riverbrian
    I didn't mention "A's" Yankees" "Luxury Tax" "World Series" or "Future Value" in the post that started this exchange. What I said was: The goal of every front office is to increase value. If the front office can increase the value of it's players... the wins will follow. The rest you are adding on your own. If you want to win a trade... Increase the value of the players you acquire. If you want to get the most for a trade. Trade players whose value has been increased. Players that are playing well increase in value. If you are playing well... you will win games. Therefore... The goal of every front office is too increase the value of their players. If you want to win trades... Increase the value of the players that you acquire. Increasing the value of your players provides bigger return in the trades that you do make. If players are playing well... they increase in value. If players are playing well... you win more games. If you are trying to trip me up... You gotta do better. 😄
  2. Riverbrian
    Based on that... yes they are.
  3. Riverbrian
    Oakland has reached the playoffs 6 out of the last 11 years. Winning Record 7 out of the last 11 years. You lost me immediately when "World Series" became your argument.
  4. Riverbrian
    Yep... That 40 man spot is the key and what they do in the bullpen will decide it. If Sands is the guy or Ober or someone who is currently on the 40 man roster is the guy... They can add a Castro or Garlick to the 40 man. If Hoffman or someone not on the 40 man is the guy going North... he takes the 40 man spot... and now they have to choose between Julien or Wallner because they are on the 40 man. I am under the assumption that none of the 39 players currently on the 40 is someone the team would be comfortable losing. Of course... We haven't finished spring training yet and more injuries can still occur. It's like me saying... It's March 23... We can still get some more snow this late in the season.
  5. Riverbrian
    In my opinion... The difference between KC and TB is this... KC has more tolerance for sub-par play and they demonstrate more stubbornness in trying to force it. The Royals will give Ryan O' Hearn who has options continued AB's when struggling while the Rays will give AB's to a Ji-Man Choi who is not struggling. Therefore the Royals struggle and the Rays do not. If O' Hearn was on the Rays... he would have been traded because the Rays know they can always find a Ji-Man Choi because they won't play an O' Hearn and therefore block a Choi. Playing struggling players over and over again is what kills your team. They are not helping the team when in the lineup and they prevent you from finding someone who can help your team because they are in the lineup instead of that someone.
  6. Riverbrian
    Love your response its well thought out and I agree with your assessment. i just want to respond to this opening sentence. The goal of every front office needs to be maximizing value. By doing so... it leads to winning games.
  7. Riverbrian
    I love a good metaphor or allegory. Thank you for this article. In your example. The players are Monty Hall and the front office is the contestant Monty Hall is the key to the Monty Hall problem. In order for it to work. 1. Monte has to know what door the car is behind. 2. Monty has to always open a door. 3. Monty can never open the door you've chosen 4. Monty can never open a door with the car behind it. Because Monty knows what car the door is behind and because you know that Monty knows. Monty has just increased your odds to 66.7% so yeah switch. In your example: The players are Monty but they don't know if they are a goat or a car, they are all trying to be cars and you are trying to trade Thielbar when he is a car. Contending teams acquire Thielbar Non-Contending teams trade Thielbar Unless the team acquiring Thielbar is willing to trade a car with more years of control. Regardless... this article gets a 10 from me. If you write more stuff like this... I'm going to read it.
  8. Riverbrian
    Polanco to the DL Kirilloff hasn't played a single spring training game. Miranda hasn't played in the field because of his shoulder Buxton will be opening the season as a DH and Kepler has an issue now. All that careful planning of platoon management in the off-season already meaningless. All that hand wringing about Solano knocking Larnach to the minors pre-mature. Check your brackets. Once again they are busted. There is a line through Kansas and Purdue.
  9. Riverbrian
    Very Few starting pitchers if any at all are #1 right out of the gate. They were labelled 2's, 3's and 4's. Who knows... We may have a future #1... or maybe a couple of them hanging around right now.
  10. Riverbrian
    I read a lot of comments over the off-season from the TD crowd. For those who look for a starting 9 and refer to the rest as "bench". For those counting starters who can't figure out what to do with Ober after they reach the number 5. For those who can't figure out why Solano was necessary. For those who are trying to carefully plan starting lineups vs right handers and a starting lineup vs a lefty like it's a static assignment that lasts the entire season. For those who need a reminder of the incredible volume of injuries last season. Let this article remind. This article is referencing opening day. ' An obvious reminder is that we have no idea what the injuries will look like in May. Or June, July, August or September but it's safe to assume that there will be some injuries. 26 players who can play is not just necessary. It is required. 26 players who can play... and you play them.
  11. Riverbrian
    Yeah... Why Not. Fans are rational, Social Media can be trusted.
  12. Riverbrian
    WIth out question hard to sustain over a 162 game schedule. It does show us that MLB has a long ways to go. Make it a little bit better and see if it grows incrementially. Maybe 20 decades from now... we got something. 😄 Baseball has to start pushing the ball up the hill before it will roll down the hill in the right direction. The WBC atmosphere is the goal. The world is trying to show us something.
  13. Riverbrian
    That WBC atmosphere should be the goal of MLB. I've always thought that Arraez was capable of power if he chose to hit for more power. He such a good hitter without that power that I'm not sure he should but I think he could. Either way... other than a healthy Byron Buxton... He was my favorite Twin to watch. I always felt like he was going to come through at the plate. Arraez was an expensive price to pay so I'm hoping that Lopez gets it done on the mound. I'm pretty sure that Arraez will get it done in Miami.
  14. Riverbrian
    How many customers? How much do they spend? If a business doesn't have many customers... they must get them to spend more. If customers are not willing to spend more.. then you need more customers, Major league baseball chose to limit customers and they did so they could extract more money from those limited customers. The very nature of a blackout is a restriction. It's saying... you can't watch. They said... I'll take the money and agree to restrictions that limit the cumulative audience and now that revenue stream is at risk and they don't have the cume necessary to replace the revenue. Baseball should have been chasing cume all along. Consumers are spending less time (and money) with the product and that less time must be replaced by more people to compensate for it. They are on the cusp of demographically aging out. We are watching the much needed overdue transition. Baseball is trying to figure out how to reach more consumers. Baseball needs to be everywhere the people are. It needs to repair the damage done This could be painful for us old folks but baseball needs a larger audience. They always have.
  15. Riverbrian
    I think it's fantastic that someone with Ober's ability is currently sitting 6th on the depth chart. 5 Decent starters in front is wonderful. I am also excited that Paddack, Canterino, Varland, Woods-Richardson, Balazovic are 7 through 11.
  16. Riverbrian
    Lots to respond to.🤔 if he isn't good enough to make the major league roster at age 27 can we all agree he isn't part of the Twins future rotation I don't agree. 3 Pitchers are potentially gone from the rotation after this season. I hope Ober continues to pitch well and slides into one of those spots. but he will be 28 in July,.. (he will have 3 years of control after this year) and he just a pitcher of depth and another guy they pipeline failed to produce? Actually, 4 Years of Control after this year. Service time is currently 1.124 with two options remaining. He could potentially be with us for awhile but he won't matter anymore in terms of this discussion because you are tagging him a "just a pitcher of depth". "another guy" "pipeline failed to produce" because? we have 5 other capable starting pitchers? That's too all or nothing or too black and white with nothing in between. If that is what the Twins are thinking, than I am 100% behind sending him to AAA to start the season I don't know what they are thinking. If I had to guess, they are thinking that Bailey Ober if healthy will start a lot of games for the Minnesota Twins because the disabled list will be utilized like it has been utilized every single year. Bailey Ober isn't competing against Kente Maeda for a spot. Maeda doesn't have options. He is competing against those who have options (Lopez and Ryan) for a spot. The CBA makes it possible to stash talented players with options in the minors. The CBA makes it nearly impossible to stash talented players without options in the minors. The frequency of injury makes it an absolute necessity to have talented players stashed in the minors.
  17. Riverbrian
    September was just 6 months ago and already forgotten by Halloween. 14 Starting Pitchers were used in 2022 - 38 pitchers total saw action. So... somebody check my math... 24 pitchers used out of the bullpen? 13 Outfielders were used in 2022 - 24 position players total. When 2022 was all said and done... 62 players crossed the white line at some point. A nickel here and nickel there and pretty soon you have a dollar. And we got to move Maeda? To make room for Ober? Solano is redundant? Gallo is Superfluous? 62 players not only wore the uniform but showed up in a box score in 2022 and no matter how painful that September "Cave" in was... many are in a state of oblivion talking about log jams before the first snow falls. 😄
  18. Riverbrian
    I agree with you completely. Posters are trying to choose between Ober and Maeda... when they DON'T have to choose. We can keep both and we will need both. According to Google Maps it takes 21 minutes to get from CHS Field to Target field. I'll never understand the reasoning. There isn't one team in MLB that has gotten through a season with 5 starters. Everyone should be aware of that by now. Having a pitcher in AAA that's too good for AAA is what you want. Yay for us. Carry on... I'm with ya.
  19. Riverbrian
    Because of the terms set forth in the negotated CBA. Players with options and less than 5 years experience can be sent to the minors for depth. You can't store decent depth in the minors that consists of players over 5 years experience. The CBA makes it very difficult to work things that way. Because of the rules set forth in the CBA. Players that can be sent to the minors... often are. 14 different starters were used in 2022. If we are stymied by what to do with a 6th starter with options remaining... I'm not sure what to say. The CBA and the frequency of injuries pretty much dictate what you do.
  20. Riverbrian
    Jeffers needs to hit.
  21. Riverbrian
    Revolving doors were invented as a way to relieve the stack pressure that occurs in high rise buildings. They serve the same purpose in baseball... they can relieve pressure elsewhere in the building.
  22. Riverbrian
    No doubt that that is better than buying at the inflated price. 😉 However... According to baseballtradevalues. If the Twins wanted to acquire Adley Rutschman from the Orioles. It would cost us - Brooks Lee, Pablo Lopez, Jose Miranda and Joe Ryan. I'd take that trade if I was the Orioles and be happy with whoever at the catching position for overall improvement of the 26 man product. The Rutschman price tag is high I admit so let's look at Sean Murphy. Still High but not quite as high. Sean would cost us Joe Ryan and Jose Miranda. I'd also take that trade and be happy with whoever at the Catching position because Miranda alone should exceed Murphy's offensive production. Now consider the numbers provided by Hire Dan Gladden earlier in this thread. Here is the games caught leader list for 2022: J.T. Realmuto, PHI [C] 133 Sean Murphy, OAK [C|DH] 116 Cal Raleigh, SEA [C] 115 Martin Maldonado, HOU [C] 113 Jose Trevino, NYY [C] 112 Jonah Heim, TEX [C] 111 Jacob Stallings, MIA [C] 110 Will Smith, LAD [C|DH] 109 Christian Vazquez, HOU [C] 108 Keibert Ruiz, WAS [C] 106 Austin Hedges, CLE [C] 105 Elias Diaz, COL [C] 104 Austin Nola, SD [C] 101 Carson Kelly, ARI [C] 100 You can get back a better hitter who will play more games for the price of inflated catcher value. It's possible that the odds of Jeffers becoming inflated catcher value decreased as soon as Vazquez put pen to paper. Don't get me wrong... I'm glad that Vazquez is here... we need him but I'm looking to the pipeline again in hopes that the Twins can develop that guy. If we ever do... no doubt I would consider cashing in because selling high is smart.
  23. Riverbrian
    My hope will always be that the Twins are able to develop catching. I am happy that Vazquez is here because he is needed and I have high hopes for him. However, paying the inflated catching price to get good catching is the exact opposite of what I want to see happen. I'd rather we develop catching and sell at the inflated catching price. The fact that you are buying (Vazquez) it means you don't have to the developed goods to sell (Jeffers). I'm wondering who is next in line on the farm and hoping we grow something as soon as possible.
  24. Riverbrian
    You could be right. I won't argue. I'm willing to give Byron, the front office and the medical staff the benefit of the doubt. From everything I've read about needing 4 hours of prep just to play one game certainly deserves my respect and I will certainly give that to Byron... I'm certainly not knocking him. I wish him the all the health my wishes will provide him. I'm sure it was a hard decision on what to do because he was hitting the ball. The surgery to fix the knee would have knocked him out for 6 to 8 weeks that's a long time. But that hitting the ball did stop. Injury related... I don't know but he wasn't hitting the baseball in May. He had a 3 for 45 stretch dropping him from .290 to .202. He produced a .610 OPS in May. Reports are that the knee injury probably led to the hip injury that shut down his season eventually. Hindsight is easy... and it's really easy when I have no responsibility whatsoever. All I can do is speculate and wonder. I do defer ultimately to the people with the information but I also wonder if they second guess themselves privately.
  25. Riverbrian
    I was sleeping during med school so I am in no way qualified to make these type of decisions. However... I can't help but consider the possibility that a trip to the DL in April or May last year may have been another option for load management with better results in the end. . Keep in mind that I haven't seen his medicals nor would I know what they mean if I did. The result of the load management efforts to keep him off the DL last season didn't work because he was placed on the DL for an extended period of time despite efforts to avoid that. So we got the extended DL time that they were trying to avoid plus the preventative days off that he could have played and we also (I assume) got a lesser version of Buxton due to not being 100% when he did play. It seems that we maximized his time off and minimized his performance this way. I can't help but wonder if he shouldn't have been DL'd back in May instead. Maybe got him back closer to 100% after X many days of consecutive rest and rehab required on the DL. I don't know... It just seems that last year's plan didn't work. If healthy play him... when not... DL him.
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