Riverbrian

That's kind of insulting. Let me squeeze into this elementary school sized desk so I may learn. Are you telling me that it's possible to have a productive farm system and spend in free agency? Please go on. Can you also go over the H and the C on the taps. Can I turn on both of them at the same time? I'm tired of burning my hands when washing them. I'll need a refresher on why we platoon if you don't mind. Anyway... Thank You. The Padres have obviously figured it out. If the Twins would just do the same thing we could start planning the parade. I understand this now. Thank you again.

No argument from me on Sentence 1, 4 and 5 and I agree with sentence 3 as the answer to sentence 2. Although I got to admit that I've lost your point, since you are quoting me from a post about 2002. Then mixing that quote with your first sentence where you are paraphrasing my run-on thoughts on development in a different post and a different context where I was given two polar options to consider. But wouldn't you rather have a real chance to win a title or at least playoff games for a period of years, then tear it down if you have to and start over? Or would you rather wait and wait and wait and wait for your guys to develop and hope you can catch lightning in a bottle one of those years Are you under the impression that I don't believe that teams can spend more and develop at the same time?

I won't deny the correlation between spending and success. But, I also won't deny the obvious class structure that exists in the game. The Padres are not the Yankees, the crash will most likely come. The Bill will come due. If you sell your farm and sign the 10 year deals.... the window won't be open long. A couple of key injuries and that window slams down on fingers quickly. Pretty soon, they are trading Edwin Diaz to get Cano off the books. Are the Padres closer than the Twins right now. In my opinion... Yes they are. Are they closer in 2024... Let's see if they keep spending to sustain it. Are the Angels or Rangers who are dropping a lot of dough closer than the Twins? I'm not so sure. For Clarity on my thoughts... I think the Twins should spend a lot this year... No Bundy's... I want players, but... holding the Padres high in the air and pointing at them like they have shown us all how to do it. I will stop at that water's edge.

I agree with you. I don't want to spend just to spend. Spending 10M on Dylan Bundy is spending that I could do without. Although, I'm not sure that we can compare front offices. Your examples were under Terry Ryan. I have the impression right or wrong that Terry was more conservative financially. Payroll rose immediately under Falvey and Lavine. Maybe not to the levels that others would like but the team was instantly more aggressive once Ryan was replaced. I have no idea... Just what I'm seeing with my binoculars from a distance.

That depends... Is a Genie granting me this.

The Nationals are the current example of the rubble. The majority of their fans seem to be upset with the trade of Soto.

2002 It ended a 9 year playoff drought for the Twins We lost to the Angels who had ended a 14 year playoff drought and the Angels went on to win the World Series. Adam Kennedy who hit 7 home runs in 474 AB's during the regular season hit 3 Home runs during the ALCS. @glunn In 2002 the Angels were 15th in payroll at 62M... The Twins were 27th in payroll at 40M, What does this have to do with the 2023 Padres payroll? ?

You will need to do better than that. But... if you want that simple approach for a discussion. OK... my response. And how has the "Flying Monkey" (I assume we are doing Wizard of Oz) Padre's way worked out so far? Oh Yeah, 2 Years over .500.

I'm complicated so I see complication in your question. "Real Chance" requires your definition of real chance. Did the Guardians have a real chance last year? Your answer will determine if we are speaking the same language. ? As for Jason Tyner... I never want to go back to those days again. We went through a decade of not signing free agents and not developing. It was a decade of treading water with average to below average talent getting every day playing time. I never want to go back to those days again. I want development front and center. I think there are times to push today but you always have to have an eye on tomorrow. I know Dombroski has won some titles but he left behind rubble in the process. I'm not sure that I want that. Development is the only way to stay bullet proof. The Dodgers are the most bulletproof team I can think of... It isn't the money... Well Yeah it helps but the Dodgers farm is what deflects the bullets. BTW... The Padres with all that money spent will still need lightning in a bottle. All 30 teams need that Lightning.

I agree that the Padres payroll aggressiveness is odd in comparison with their peers. However, there a few things to consider. 1. Payroll has only gone up in the past two years. Payroll was unimpressive prior. 2. Once you drain the farm and they drained the farm with the Soto trade. If you want to improve the club with no farm. You have nobody to call up and nobody to trade. That leaves one option... spend even more money. The Padres just might be in that boat at the moment. 3. The window is closing fast so maybe this is the final push in. There is a large line of players hitting the exit doors next year. Machado has an opt-out, Darvish, Snell, Hader will be free agents. Soto is a free agent the year after that. Farm has to be rebuilt, trades difficult with big contracts and no prospects to offer, Darvish, Snell, Hader need more money to stay, Arb Raises for others. The question is this: Can the Padres keep playing this big money game into the future when increasing it is the only way to sustain it. We will have to wait and see... but for those who want to simplify the discussion by saying it's an owner that is willing to spend and drop the mic. There are other things to consider.

I'd guess that offering a short deal would be the same as not offering at all. He is becoming an increasingly bigger fish in an increasingly shrinking pond.

After the Twins signed Correa last year... I've given up on the guessing game. It's just to hard to predict what the Teams are thinking and what the players are thinking without having a clue what either is thinking. With that said... I'm saying Correa to the Giants... Swanson to the Twins. Now I will sit back and wait for that to happen.

Is it just me or do the FA prices seem really high this year?

No disconnect. I agree and was actually attempting to further your thoughts with my own.

Before you use the word absurd. Please do your 1 WAR = 8M dollar math on Eddie Rosario before we let him walk over an estimated 10m during Arbitration. Extrapolate his shortened 2020 season the same way as you did Max. Also... Let me ask your opinion on how Eddie Rosario went from 4.3 to 1.5 bWAR from 2018 to 2019? Please break down the numbers that caused a 4.3 to 1.5 drop because I'm not understanding how it's possible and I could use some help understanding.

On a Thanksgiving many many years ago. We were all sitting down stairs when we heard a horrible scream from Mom upstairs in the kitchen. It was the type of scream were everybody gets up immediately and runs up stairs because there was no doubt that something seriously bad happened. In our haste to quickly get up the stairs at the same time as a group, my younger sister knocked my older sister down the stairs. One by one we (except my older sister lying at the bottom of the stairs) filed into the kitchen and saw Mom on the floor in tears. One of my sisters brought her dog (just a young pup at the time) and it had eaten significant portions of 3 of the 4 pies that Mom baked and scarfed some of the freshly baked buns with no telling how many were licked in the process. There was no need for a trial, the dog was still chewing on a bun with pie all over her fur as Mom sat on the floor convinced that all of her hard work preparations as well as Thanksgiving itself were ruined. My sister brought the dog every Thanksgiving after and every Thanksgiving Mom worried about the food and that dog. The dog had matured and was no longer doing such things. It didn't even beg at the table. It didn't matter... once impressions are formed... they are hard to shake. A narrative gets built and it echoes every single year without fail. The dog was in the doghouse with Mom and nothing would change that. It didn't matter that the Dog had signed Correa to 3 year 105.3 million dollar deal last Thanksgiving. Here comes the narrative again. Moral to the Story: The untouched pie was Raisin. Need I say more.

I see Mitch Haniger on the list as one of the players who will benefit from the shift. He's not starting from as far down as Max. Let's cash in that benefit. ?

Yet... those numbers get folded into WAR which in turn says that Max Kepler is better than Nick Gordon despite quite significant offensive stats that say otherwise. And then WAR is used by the masses as some sort of universal gospel truth that Max Kepler is OK. I'm ultimately trying to get my arms around people who are not concerned about handing Max a starting job and NOT needing an upgrade in the OF because of his presence.

So WAR must be as well?

I'll go ahead and sneeze. ?

Good Points. I find myself questioning most defensive stats due to sample size but let's say it's a 50 point jump for Kepler like the stat suggests. This benefit isn't Kepler's alone so the overall bar is going to rise. Others may only get a 25 point jump and those others may be starting higher than the .220's. Kepler has a longer way to go. Like a NASCAR who gets his car fixed after he has been lapped. WIth all that said... I will stay hopeful that the shift ban helps him but we have to be prepared for the possibility of 3 years in a row sub-par. We need an OF with a BAT.

His contract at 8M is guaranteed this year with option years for the next couple. I wonder if the Twins would have paid it if it was an Arbitration decision at 8M. We cut Rosario loose at 10M. I don't know the answer to that. I assume he would not be offered Arbitration but I could be wrong.

I hope he benefits from the shift ban but I also have to assume that many many others will also benefit from that shift ban so I am hopeful but yet... not ready to bet the house on it. I get the defensive reputation that Max is credited for... however, the value of it makes no sense to me in regards to the WAR he is credited for. Let's look at Nick Gordon and Max Kepler side by side. Max Kepler: AB 388 - BA .227 - HR 9 - OBP .318 - SLG .348 - OPS .666 Nick Gordon: AB 405 - BA .272 - HR 9 - OBP .316 - SLG .427 - OPS .743 Equal with Home Runs and OBP so Max will take a few more walks. Batting Average and Slugging significantly higher for Gordon and with the higher slugging comes the higher OPS. Now let's check out 2022 WAR (Baseball Reference): Kepler: 2.1 Gordon: 1.6 How much defensive weighting is required for Max to produce a higher war in light of the 2022 offensive stats illustrated above. Kepler had 227 chances primarily in RF Gordon had 167 chances at multiple positions. The overwhelming majority of those chances are classified as routine or likely meaning anybody would have made the play. Can anyone make this make sense to me?

Ultimately, it's on the club. Max can't write his own name on the lineup card. How many chances does he get to be the player the team believes he will be without him actually being the player the team believes he will be. I'm ok with him getting another chance this year but if he doesn't turn it around he shouldn't finish the season on the roster. He will need to be cleared from the roster so others get the opportunity to try to be who Kepler was supposed to be.

As for that optimism... I agree that you should give him a roster spot. 25th or 26th guy on the roster and give him a chance to earn his job back with actual production. However, Pagan has those same optimistic metrics and those same real life results two years running. Now... If you have actual expectations for the players that you give the amount of playing time that he gets. He has been an outright bust. Kepler has been a top of the order bat for this team. .222 with 9 home runs in the clean up spot is an outright bust. If he's batting 8th or 9th maybe then he can shed the bust label because you have 7 better hitters on team and you wouldn't need him so damn bad. With 7 hitters who are hitting and performing with the bat. Kepler can just be that defensive specialist that he has been the past two years, playing a position that is usually manned by a guy who rakes. 2022 Split G GS PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB ROE BAbip tOPS+ sOPS+ Batting 1st 2 2 8 8 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 .125 .125 .125 .250 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 .167 -25 -29 Batting 2nd 2 2 7 6 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 .167 .286 .333 .619 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 .167 86 64 Batting 3rd 15 14 62 54 14 14 4 0 2 11 0 0 8 3 .259 .355 .444 .799 24 1 0 0 0 0 1 .245 139 109 Batting 4th 47 44 191 164 20 43 6 1 2 13 0 2 21 28 .262 .351 .348 .698 57 4 3 0 3 0 1 .299 110 93 Batting 5th 19 19 77 67 10 10 0 0 3 10 2 0 8 15 .149 .247 .284 .530 19 0 1 0 1 0 1 .140 59 53 Batting 6th 12 9 40 37 3 9 4 0 1 7 0 0 3 9 .243 .300 .432 .732 16 2 0 0 0 0 0 .296 119 110 Batting 7th 6 6 23 18 2 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 6 .167 .348 .167 .515 3 0 0 0 0 1 1 .250 57 61 Batting 8th 8 7 28 26 2 6 3 0 0 1 1 0 2 2 .231 .286 .346 .632 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 .250 89 93 Batting 9th 4 2 10 8 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 .125 .300 .500 .800 4 0 1 0 0 0 0 .000 138 148 2021 Split G GS PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB ROE BAbip tOPS+ sOPS+ Batting 1st 29 29 137 119 23 24 5 1 6 10 0 0 16 21 .202 .299 .412 .711 49 0 1 0 1 1 2 .194 98 86 Batting 2nd 4 2 12 10 1 2 0 0 1 2 1 0 1 4 .200 .333 .500 .833 5 0 1 0 0 0 0 .200 130 113 Batting 3rd 5 5 22 19 5 6 3 1 1 5 0 0 2 5 .316 .409 .737 1.146 14 0 1 0 0 0 0 .385 212 178 Batting 4th 12 12 50 45 6 7 3 0 2 8 2 0 4 12 .156 .240 .356 .596 16 1 1 0 0 0 0 .161 65 52 Batting 5th 28 27 117 101 12 24 6 1 3 12 1 0 15 24 .238 .333 .406 .739 41 0 0 0 1 1 0 .280 107 101 Batting 6th 11 10 41 36 3 5 1 0 2 3 3 0 3 12 .139 .244 .333 .577 12 0 2 0 0 1 0 .136 60 59 Batting 7th 24 22 87 75 10 20 3 1 4 13 3 0 11 14 .267 .356 .493 .850 37 1 0 0 1 0 1 .276 136 144 Batting 8th 6 6 22 19 1 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 2 3 .105 .182 .105 .287 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 .118 -15 -10 Batting 9th 2 0 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 -100 -100