Riverbrian

Throwing in a couple of cents. I'm a hang a zero guy. For a reliever... Hanging a zero is doing your job. If you give up a run, you did not do your job. How many times did you do your job and how many times did you not. ERA is such a misleading stat for relievers because if you hang a 6. It will take you 12 appearances hanging a zero before you stop getting hate mail from the ERA obsessed. So I look at appearances and how many times they did the job we want them to do which is hang a zero. Pre Cleveland 4 blown game nightmare. Emilio appeared in 22 games. He Hung Zeroes in 16 of those games. 73% Good or 27% Bad Use the Good or the Bad depending on how you like your water glasses. Post Cleveland 4 blown game nightmare. Emilio Appeared in 32 Games. He Hung Zeroes in 21 of those games. 65% Good or 35% Bad. So I got him as worse post Cleveland Nightmare in my world. Let's add in the Cleveland 4 blown game nightmare for fun (which included a hung zero against Denver in the middle of the carnage) and his hung zero season totals were: 59 appearances. 38 Zeros hung. 64% For peer comparison Duran: 57 Appearance - 47 Zeros hung - 82% Thielbar: 67 Appearances - 54 Zeros Hung - 81% Moran: 31 Appearances - 25 Zeros Hung - 81% Smith: 34 Appearances - 26 Zeroes Hung - 76% (Note: Smith didn't allow an earned run over his first 17 Appearances. He was 52% after that) Jax: 65 Appearances - 48 Zeroes Hung - 74% Duffey: 40 Appearances - 29 Zeroes Hung - 73% (Duffey tended to give up crooked numbers when he couldn't hang the zero) Pagan: 59 Appearances - 38 Zeros hung - 64% Megill: 39 Appearances - 25 Zeros hung - 64% I present this as just another way to show that Pagan wasn't very good.

So your saying that until the Farm Produces they brought in a Farmer.

I have a feeling that this will be a very active off-season for our newly uniformed team.

Baldelli in an interview after one of the 4 Guardian game Pagan meltdowns. He defended Emilio (Manager should defend publicly IMO). I don't recall the exact words but I remember how I perceived the comments he made. Rocco seemed to say that all indications were that Pagan should be performing better based on the quality of pitches and everything they use for such assessments. He seemed to be at a loss as to why it was going horribly wrong but it left me feeling that they were standing behind him (a manager should stand publicly behind his guys). They stuck with Pagan throughout the struggles last year so I'm not shocked that they are still sticking with him as we roll into 2023. I think it's important to note. This isn't just a manager and a single opinion from that manager. The Twins organization employs a lot of people from the POBO, to the GM to the Manager to the pitching coach(coaches) to the scouts, not to mention a whole bunch of analysts who are paid money to analyze. I'm glad they have a full staff of people doing what they do for better information in a competitive business. The information should be helpful most of the time. However... obviously not all of the time as Pagan demonstrates to them and all of us. If the information was correct all of the time, Pagan would have been good. 14M would have been a bargain for Sano, Kepler would make people happy, Nick Anderson would have been on our disabled list last year. The actual performance on the field HAS TO MEAN MORE than whatever information they are getting. The players that they stick with while they are struggling and are what takes a team down. Sticking with Pagan struggling to the tune of him blowing 4 games against Cleveland by himself ended up being a major factor in our sitting out the playoffs. I'm tired of playing the guy they THINK will be better. I would rather that they play the guy who is actually playing better. Pagan is back... They better be right and if they are not... They need to be quicker to the waste basket.

Tingler: Welcome to Minnesota Kyle, let's get you introduced to your teammates. This is Sonny, Sonny I'd like you to meet Kyle Farmer. and This is Tyler Mahle... Tyler and Sonny are pitchers with our squad. Tyler... This is Kyle Farmer... gonna play some SS for us this year.

Gotta be a value move... He will be paid X amount while his value has been determined to be less than X. Like Rosario but in this case they were able to find a trade partner. I don't see it as key to future moves but that projected 9.2 million could be helpful to fill one of those gaping holes. All in All... I never saw Urshela as a problem. Liked him... helped us win games in my opinion... no problem with him being on the roster. This is what all those analysts do. I'll wait until the off season to complete before judgement.

I will reserve judgement until the end of the off-season. More moves to come... I assume.

I'm not afraid of young players. I encourage the utilization of young players because options are a wonderful thing in case they struggle. Teams need 600K Talent so they can spend elsewhere, they need to develop. Do I anticipate big improvements from Wallner, Larnach and Kirilloff? Aniticpate is the wrong word. I'm hopeful for improvements because it's vital for today and tomorrow. What I am completely against is this. Anticipating big improvements with all eggs in that anticipation basket. And then when it doesn't happen having nowhere to turn. We can roster 5 outfielders and find playing time for those who will earn it but right now... Nick Gordon is our 2nd best OF... that leaves us with a lot of anticipating.

Current Roster OF. This is what they did last year. 2022 OPS Byron Buxton - .833 Nick Gordon - .743 Kyle Garlick - .717 Trevor Larnach - .712 Matt Wallner - .709 Max Kepler - .666 Alex Kirilloff - .651 Gilberto Celestino - .615 Mark Contreras - .441 Y'all comfortable with our OF offense.

Since DRS is being thrown around. Stats from fangraphs are posted below. Take note of the amazing defensive year he had in 2019. Here's a question. What if Renfroe has a defensive year like he did in 2019. If he did... would he be a good defender then? That's quite the gold glove spike in 2019. I Wonder how that happens. That 2019 sure seems to prop up his defensive career numbers. I also notice that his best zone metric performances (DRS and UZR) were best when he split time between LF and RF? Does this prove that players can be positionally flexible or does this prove that the small sample is made smaller by splitting between positions? That's all I got... let the discussion of Renfroe's defensive ability resume. Season Team Level Pos Inn rSZ rCERA rSB rGDP rARM rGFP rPM DRS ARM DPR RngR ErrR UZR UZR/150 FRM OAA RAA 2020 TBR MLB 1B 9.0 0 0 -1 -1 0 0 2022 MIL MLB 1B 1.0 0 0 0 0 0 Total - - - - - - 1B 10.0 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 0 2018 SDP MLB LF 476.0 0 -1 2 1 -0.8 0.7 -0.3 -0.4 -0.9 -1 -1 2019 SDP MLB LF 478.1 3 1 2 6 -0.5 1.7 0.1 1.3 3.0 2 2 Total - - - - - - LF 954.1 3 0 4 7 -1.3 2.4 -0.2 0.9 1.1 1 1 2019 SDP MLB CF 15.0 0 0 1 1 -0.4 0.7 0.1 0.4 19.8 1 1 2021 BOS MLB CF 47.0 0 0 -1 -1 0.2 -1.2 0.0 -1.0 -38.2 -1 -1 Total - - - - - - CF 62.0 0 0 0 0 -0.2 -0.5 0.1 -0.6 -9.9 0 0 2016 SDP MLB RF 73.2 0 0 -1 -1 0.8 -0.9 -0.5 -0.6 -18.1 -1 -1 2017 SDP MLB RF 1015.0 -1 1 0 0 -1.3 -1.7 -2.5 -5.6 -7.9 -1 -1 2018 SDP MLB RF 379.0 1 0 2 3 0.4 0.6 -1.4 -0.4 -1.4 -1 0 2019 SDP MLB RF 504.2 3 0 9 12 4.3 3.6 0.5 8.4 21.7 3 3 2020 TBR MLB RF 285.0 1 0 -2 -1 1.1 -2.3 -0.4 -1.6 -5.8 -1 -1 2021 BOS MLB RF 1166.0 3 0 -3 0 1.7 -0.2 -3.0 -1.6 -2.1 -3 -2 2022 MIL MLB RF 1043.2 0 1 1 0 2 -0.4 0.8 -0.4 0.0 -0.1 -2 -1 Total - - - - - - RF 4467.0 0 8 2 5 15 6.6 -0.1 -7.8 -1.3 -0.5 -5 -4 2016 SDP MLB OF 73.2 0 0 -1 -1 0.8 -0.9 -0.5 -0.6 -18.1 -1 -1 2017 SDP MLB OF 1015.0 -1 1 0 0 -1.3 -1.7 -2.5 -5.6 -7.9 -1 -1 2018 SDP MLB OF 855.0 1 -1 4 4 -0.4 1.3 -1.7 -0.8 -1.1 -1 -1 2019 SDP MLB OF 998.0 6 1 12 19 3.4 6.0 0.7 10.1 13.1 6 6 2020 TBR MLB OF 285.0 1 0 -2 -1 1.1 -2.3 -0.4 -1.6 -5.8 -1 -1 2021 BOS MLB OF 1213.0 3 0 -4 -1 1.9 -1.4 -3.0 -2.5 -3.1 -3 -3 2022 MIL MLB OF 1043.2 0 1 1 0 2 -0.4 0.8 -0.4 0.0 -0.1 -2 -1 Total - - - - - - OF 5483.1 0 11 2 9 22 5.0 1.8 -7.8 -1.0 -0.3 -3 -3

I know I'm being difficult here and for that I apologize. I am at heart a nice guy and if it helps I think you are a very solid poster. But... I can't help myself. Joe Ryan had a 3.55 ERA last year, he has a career ERA of 3.63. You got him as a 4. Pablo Lopez had a 3.75 ERA last year, he has a career ERA of 3.94. You got him as a 2. Brandon Woodruff had a 3.05 ERA last year, he has a career ERA of 3.18. You got him as a 2. Where do Woodruff and Ryan file complaints? ?

Maybe I'll be surprised but I can't see Kepler bringing back anything in a trade. Lets be honest... I assume the reason there are so many comments from TD faithful about the possibility of trading Kepler is because he hasn't been good. If he had been good, the TD Faithful wouldn't be thinking about trading Kepler. If he hasn't been good... Why would a team give up any value for him? The only sensible course of action with Kepler is to hope and pray that the shift rule changes are a tremendous help to him. Give him one of the last roster spots and let him earn playing time back by showing that he can be productive without the shift. He is going to cost us 8 million this year regardless, let's see if he can build that value back... but whatever you do... do not walk into 2023 with Kepler listed as a starter and think it's covered. Gallo might spring back into something of value. He might not. He can hit the ball long way and defend his position but we need a corner outfielder that isn't Kepler or Gallo... We need a corner bat that is way better then both of them. We need a corner bat that is a better hitter than Polanco is. Better than Miranda.

Which Part? If it was only a part. What was the rest of the process?

His Health is the reason why you don't. Everything else is the reason why you do. Here's a thought exercise. Look at our current roster of hitters. Rank them 1 through 10. Here's mine 1. Buxton 2. Arraez 3. Polanco 4. Miranda 5. Urshela You don't have to go all the way to 10 in your rankings. Once you get to 3 you realize that you need a bopper that is easily in that top 3. Haniger has consistently been that guy when healthy.

He really doesn't.

This was the quote I responded to. To think Jim Pohlad has any working knowledge of how things work with player negotiations is beyond generous. Carl died in 2009. If you are suggesting that over 13 years Jim has managed to not asborb "any working knowledge of player negotiations" is pretty incredible... especially when you consider that the "baseball people" that HE hired are negotiating with not just his money but also that of his brothers he represents as the one in charge of the day to day operations of the franchise. You are suggesting that he has never been asked for budget increase requests by the baseball people that he hired to negotiate with players, nor received explanations, reasoning, justifications for such requests. You are suggesting that he has never been briefed on the results or status of any negotiations over 13 years. If you are not suggesting that he hasn't briefed, updated during his 13 years as the one in charge. Then you can only be suggesting that he is unable to retain anything from the briefings, updates, meetings, casual conversation. The representative of the ownership group. the guy who ultimately fired Terry Ryan and hired Derek Falvey as his "baseball people". The guy who not only has access to the room that you and I don't have access to but actually OWNS the room. He doesn't have working knowledge of how baseball negotiations work? The level of engagement or incompetence that you are painting is beyond any reasonable logic, that it's equal to anyone who claims that Rocco is an idiot when trying to express their frustration. 30 Manager Jobs paying over a million a year and not only have they hired an idiot but they have retained an idiot. I've never met the man... I've listened to him speak during interviews. I don't believe that Rocco is an idiot because the odds of his being an idiot and not only hired but retained are incredibly low and the same goes for the level of aloofness of Jim Pohlad that you are trying to pass along to the rest of us. Any such suggestion is not worthy of space or consideration.

I'm trying to understand the logic in this discussion. If we trade Kepler with a career .232 BA and 1 year left at 8.5M on his contract before a club option at 10m. We could acquire Joey Gallo with a .199 BA for a 1 year deal at 10M to replace him. We hope that Kepler will benefit from the banning of the shift, while we believe that Gallo could benefit from the banning of the shift. It's been my experience in life that treading water doesn't get you very far. One other thing... I've seen a lot of comments about a potential Kepler trade. I assume this sentiment comes from his performance the past two years. If he performed well, we wouldn't be talking about a potential trade. So to recap: We have lots of folks that want to trade Kepler. We also have lots of folks that list Kepler as our 2023 RF and 2nd best outfielder. And... And... We have lots of folks who say OF is not a top priority. ?

I know this statement will be controversial. The Twins do need to prepare for the possibility that they are in contention at the trade deadline. Meaning: They do need to look at the current prospect inventory and factor in today and tomorrow when looking at the trade market.

I fail to understand why Kepler needs to be traded in order to make room for anyone. I struggle to identify any teams out of the 29 choices that would be interested in trading a corner outfielder who followed a season of .211/.306/.413. with a season of .227/.318/.348 with an 8.5 million dollar bill attached. I'm also picking up an implication that Kepler DOES NOT have to vie for at-bats. While Kirilloff, Larnach, Wallner and Gordon do. I guess... I wonder why Kepler does not have to vie for at-bats after two poor seasons at the plate back to back. Why are many absolutely willing to give Kepler an everyday job and look elsewhere for team improvement? I rank a big bopper in the OF as our #1 need this off-season and back to back poor season is why. Kep can keep a job as the guy who plays CF when Buxton is hurt and vies for at-bats when Buxton is healthy. Until he finds whatever he lost from 2019.

In 2018 Alcala was the Astros 7th ranked Prospect Celestino was the Astros 23rd ranked prospect To compare and contrast In 2018 Brusdar Graterol was the Twins 7th Ranked Prospect Luis Arraez was the Twins 23rd Ranked Prospect At the trade deadline... Buyers Buy and Sellers Sell. The Twins were sellers... Is it possible that the Astros met the price on a big ask?

I agree 1000 Percent

IP from Starters in 2022 1. Astros - 950 Innings ERA 2.95 27. Twins - 782.2 Innings ERA 4.11 30. Rays - 753 Innings ERA 3.45 IP from Relievers 1. Rays - 682.2 Innings ERA 3.36 3. Twins - 654.1 Innings ERA 3.84 30. Astros - 495.1 Innings ERA 2.80 The Rays show it can be done. The Twins needed 159 more bullpen innings which is about 20 innings extra per bullpen slot. There is no escape from this bullpen usage when you look at how many starters were dragging the starter ERA down to 4.11. Which Twins starters had an ERA over 4.11? Bundy - 29 Starts Archer - 25 Starts Winder - 11 Starts Mahle - 4 Starts Sanchez - 3 Starts Sands - 3 Starts Gonzalez - 2 Starts 67 Starts made by Starters with an ERA over 4.11 (There's your problem)

The Twins do not need a closer. They need 8 guys they trust to pitch the 9th or any inning. Get Bullpen Serious. Yes it is possible.

You win trades by improving the players that you acquire since almost all trades are near equal value when agreed upon. Houston did a great job of taking Pressly and making him much more than he was with us. That is how you win trades. Houston does a great job of making players better so they win a lot of trades... and... and... games.

Chas McCormick... 21st round draft pick... reached the pinnacle of 21st ranked Astros prospect in 2020. Keith Law never talked about him. Just another of my poster boys for the value of opportunity and letting players playing good keep playing and letting players decide who plays by actual play. Making the catch in front of and against his home town team. His son is named Rolen after Scott Rolen. Back to Bryan Reynolds. Yeah he costs a little more... but the point is and you agree... they are both ridiculously expensive so a decent comp because the years of control match. If I'm spending that Prospect Capitol on a single player. If I'm draining the farm for a single player. I'll take Reynolds over Murphy. But all in all, you and I are not draining the farm for either player. Not many teams these days will drain the farm for any single player and perhaps that's why both are still in Pittsburgh and Oakland.