Riverbrian

I'd guess that offering a short deal would be the same as not offering at all. He is becoming an increasingly bigger fish in an increasingly shrinking pond.

After the Twins signed Correa last year... I've given up on the guessing game. It's just to hard to predict what the Teams are thinking and what the players are thinking without having a clue what either is thinking. With that said... I'm saying Correa to the Giants... Swanson to the Twins. Now I will sit back and wait for that to happen.

Is it just me or do the FA prices seem really high this year?

No disconnect. I agree and was actually attempting to further your thoughts with my own.

Before you use the word absurd. Please do your 1 WAR = 8M dollar math on Eddie Rosario before we let him walk over an estimated 10m during Arbitration. Extrapolate his shortened 2020 season the same way as you did Max. Also... Let me ask your opinion on how Eddie Rosario went from 4.3 to 1.5 bWAR from 2018 to 2019? Please break down the numbers that caused a 4.3 to 1.5 drop because I'm not understanding how it's possible and I could use some help understanding.

On a Thanksgiving many many years ago. We were all sitting down stairs when we heard a horrible scream from Mom upstairs in the kitchen. It was the type of scream were everybody gets up immediately and runs up stairs because there was no doubt that something seriously bad happened. In our haste to quickly get up the stairs at the same time as a group, my younger sister knocked my older sister down the stairs. One by one we (except my older sister lying at the bottom of the stairs) filed into the kitchen and saw Mom on the floor in tears. One of my sisters brought her dog (just a young pup at the time) and it had eaten significant portions of 3 of the 4 pies that Mom baked and scarfed some of the freshly baked buns with no telling how many were licked in the process. There was no need for a trial, the dog was still chewing on a bun with pie all over her fur as Mom sat on the floor convinced that all of her hard work preparations as well as Thanksgiving itself were ruined. My sister brought the dog every Thanksgiving after and every Thanksgiving Mom worried about the food and that dog. The dog had matured and was no longer doing such things. It didn't even beg at the table. It didn't matter... once impressions are formed... they are hard to shake. A narrative gets built and it echoes every single year without fail. The dog was in the doghouse with Mom and nothing would change that. It didn't matter that the Dog had signed Correa to 3 year 105.3 million dollar deal last Thanksgiving. Here comes the narrative again. Moral to the Story: The untouched pie was Raisin. Need I say more.

I see Mitch Haniger on the list as one of the players who will benefit from the shift. He's not starting from as far down as Max. Let's cash in that benefit. ?

Yet... those numbers get folded into WAR which in turn says that Max Kepler is better than Nick Gordon despite quite significant offensive stats that say otherwise. And then WAR is used by the masses as some sort of universal gospel truth that Max Kepler is OK. I'm ultimately trying to get my arms around people who are not concerned about handing Max a starting job and NOT needing an upgrade in the OF because of his presence.

So WAR must be as well?

I'll go ahead and sneeze. ?

Good Points. I find myself questioning most defensive stats due to sample size but let's say it's a 50 point jump for Kepler like the stat suggests. This benefit isn't Kepler's alone so the overall bar is going to rise. Others may only get a 25 point jump and those others may be starting higher than the .220's. Kepler has a longer way to go. Like a NASCAR who gets his car fixed after he has been lapped. WIth all that said... I will stay hopeful that the shift ban helps him but we have to be prepared for the possibility of 3 years in a row sub-par. We need an OF with a BAT.

His contract at 8M is guaranteed this year with option years for the next couple. I wonder if the Twins would have paid it if it was an Arbitration decision at 8M. We cut Rosario loose at 10M. I don't know the answer to that. I assume he would not be offered Arbitration but I could be wrong.

I hope he benefits from the shift ban but I also have to assume that many many others will also benefit from that shift ban so I am hopeful but yet... not ready to bet the house on it. I get the defensive reputation that Max is credited for... however, the value of it makes no sense to me in regards to the WAR he is credited for. Let's look at Nick Gordon and Max Kepler side by side. Max Kepler: AB 388 - BA .227 - HR 9 - OBP .318 - SLG .348 - OPS .666 Nick Gordon: AB 405 - BA .272 - HR 9 - OBP .316 - SLG .427 - OPS .743 Equal with Home Runs and OBP so Max will take a few more walks. Batting Average and Slugging significantly higher for Gordon and with the higher slugging comes the higher OPS. Now let's check out 2022 WAR (Baseball Reference): Kepler: 2.1 Gordon: 1.6 How much defensive weighting is required for Max to produce a higher war in light of the 2022 offensive stats illustrated above. Kepler had 227 chances primarily in RF Gordon had 167 chances at multiple positions. The overwhelming majority of those chances are classified as routine or likely meaning anybody would have made the play. Can anyone make this make sense to me?

Ultimately, it's on the club. Max can't write his own name on the lineup card. How many chances does he get to be the player the team believes he will be without him actually being the player the team believes he will be. I'm ok with him getting another chance this year but if he doesn't turn it around he shouldn't finish the season on the roster. He will need to be cleared from the roster so others get the opportunity to try to be who Kepler was supposed to be.

As for that optimism... I agree that you should give him a roster spot. 25th or 26th guy on the roster and give him a chance to earn his job back with actual production. However, Pagan has those same optimistic metrics and those same real life results two years running. Now... If you have actual expectations for the players that you give the amount of playing time that he gets. He has been an outright bust. Kepler has been a top of the order bat for this team. .222 with 9 home runs in the clean up spot is an outright bust. If he's batting 8th or 9th maybe then he can shed the bust label because you have 7 better hitters on team and you wouldn't need him so damn bad. With 7 hitters who are hitting and performing with the bat. Kepler can just be that defensive specialist that he has been the past two years, playing a position that is usually manned by a guy who rakes. 2022 Split G GS PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB ROE BAbip tOPS+ sOPS+ Batting 1st 2 2 8 8 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 .125 .125 .125 .250 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 .167 -25 -29 Batting 2nd 2 2 7 6 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 .167 .286 .333 .619 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 .167 86 64 Batting 3rd 15 14 62 54 14 14 4 0 2 11 0 0 8 3 .259 .355 .444 .799 24 1 0 0 0 0 1 .245 139 109 Batting 4th 47 44 191 164 20 43 6 1 2 13 0 2 21 28 .262 .351 .348 .698 57 4 3 0 3 0 1 .299 110 93 Batting 5th 19 19 77 67 10 10 0 0 3 10 2 0 8 15 .149 .247 .284 .530 19 0 1 0 1 0 1 .140 59 53 Batting 6th 12 9 40 37 3 9 4 0 1 7 0 0 3 9 .243 .300 .432 .732 16 2 0 0 0 0 0 .296 119 110 Batting 7th 6 6 23 18 2 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 6 .167 .348 .167 .515 3 0 0 0 0 1 1 .250 57 61 Batting 8th 8 7 28 26 2 6 3 0 0 1 1 0 2 2 .231 .286 .346 .632 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 .250 89 93 Batting 9th 4 2 10 8 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 .125 .300 .500 .800 4 0 1 0 0 0 0 .000 138 148 2021 Split G GS PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB ROE BAbip tOPS+ sOPS+ Batting 1st 29 29 137 119 23 24 5 1 6 10 0 0 16 21 .202 .299 .412 .711 49 0 1 0 1 1 2 .194 98 86 Batting 2nd 4 2 12 10 1 2 0 0 1 2 1 0 1 4 .200 .333 .500 .833 5 0 1 0 0 0 0 .200 130 113 Batting 3rd 5 5 22 19 5 6 3 1 1 5 0 0 2 5 .316 .409 .737 1.146 14 0 1 0 0 0 0 .385 212 178 Batting 4th 12 12 50 45 6 7 3 0 2 8 2 0 4 12 .156 .240 .356 .596 16 1 1 0 0 0 0 .161 65 52 Batting 5th 28 27 117 101 12 24 6 1 3 12 1 0 15 24 .238 .333 .406 .739 41 0 0 0 1 1 0 .280 107 101 Batting 6th 11 10 41 36 3 5 1 0 2 3 3 0 3 12 .139 .244 .333 .577 12 0 2 0 0 1 0 .136 60 59 Batting 7th 24 22 87 75 10 20 3 1 4 13 3 0 11 14 .267 .356 .493 .850 37 1 0 0 1 0 1 .276 136 144 Batting 8th 6 6 22 19 1 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 2 3 .105 .182 .105 .287 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 .118 -15 -10 Batting 9th 2 0 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 -100 -100

It was always reasonable to assume that if the Twins wanted to sign Correa they would have to outbid some major players for his services.

Using Logic which may or may not be worth something. Narvaez has pop and he worked with some of the best arms in baseball. If mid-tier is where we will be shopping and assuming Catchers work closely with pitchers. Maybe Narvaez can bring some Burnes, Hader, Woodruff, know how to our young pitchers.

What did we get in return for Arraez and Kepler?

It is far better to be the A's or Blue Jays with inflated Catcher value to sell... then it is to be the team who is desperate to pay that price. The Twins need to be the team that develops a Murphy or Moreno. If there is need to pay the marked up prices on catching, then the Twins catching problem is bad... because it's bad to be in that position. The current strength, potential and ability to develop and cultivate the players on the list below will tell you.... "How Big is the Twins Catching Problem?" ORIGINAL SIGNING INFO Prospect Rank Power Rank 2022 STATS more_vert PROJ LEVEL POS # PLAYER BATS AGE HOW ACQUIRED Options or R5 Status MLB Service Time Year Team Rd Pick Ovr Rank ('22) Org Rank ('22) Org Rank ('21) Ovr PA HR SB OPS ETA Max Level ('22) AAA C/1B Alex Isola AFL R 24.4 Drafted 29th Rd '19 R5 2019 MIN 19 869 927 AA AAA C 73 David Bañuelos R 26.2 Trade (SEA) Dec'17 R5 2017 SEA 5 153 AAA AA C Jair Camargo R 23.4 Trade (LAD) Feb'20 R5 JUL 2015 LAD 39 AA AA C/1B Kyle Schmidt R 25.4 Drafted 33rd Rd '19 R5 2019 MIN 33 989 AAA AA C Pat Winkel L 22.9 Drafted 9th Rd '21 Dec'24 2021 MIN 9 279 A+ A+ C/1B Noah Cardenas R 23.2 Drafted 8th Rd '21 Dec'24 2021 MIN 8 249 602 A A+ C/1B Charles Mack L 23.1 Drafted 6th Rd (184) '18 R5 2018 MIN 6 184 40 A+ A+ C/1B Dillon Tatum R 22.5 Drafted 20th Rd '21 Dec'24 2021 MIN 20 609 AA A C/1B Nate Baez R 21.5 Drafted 12th Rd '22 Dec'25 2022 MIN 12 354 A A C/LF/2B Ricardo Olivar R 21.3 Amateur FA (VEN) Jul'19 Dec'23 JUL 2019 MIN A Rk C Wilfri Castro R 21.7 Amateur FA (DOM) Jul'17 R5 JUL 2017 MIN R Rk C Ricardo Pena R 17.5 Amateur FA (VEN) Apr'22 Dec'26 APR 2022 MIN

The only trade that would make sense is if we got an equal or better MLB bat in return. Even then you are just treading water. Need to add not subtract or go lateral on the offensive side.

I'd like to see them spend less if they are spending it on Logan Morrison or Dylan Bundy. I'd like to see them spend more so they don't spend it on Logan Morrison or Dylan Bundy.

If you are trading Polanco to free up money to sign Correa. Please Don't. What if you don't sign Correa or Turner or Bogaerts or Swanson. Now you don't have Correa or Polanco. If you are trading Polanco because of depth or excess. Please Don't. Can we at least get through the year 2022 before we forget what happened in 2022 with our depth and excess.

He has been good. Happy to have him on the team.

Every single team can list 8 names on a corner OF depth chart and call it a conundrum by these standards. Not many teams CAN'T list at least one name in the corner with a recent track record of above average performance. We got Gordon... so we escape that "at least one name" thing. So trade off the excess... We got Gordon.

The bases will be bigger, opinions may be adjusting a little but how much of an increase is coming to make it "much more important"? We may see an increase but out management is probably going to outweigh everything under the sun. You get 3 outs per inning to do damage. If you lose an out on the base paths, you have lost 33% of your allotment. That lost 33% is huge when you consider that only 31% of batters on average don't make an out. Those numbers will calm teams down on the base paths.