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minman1982

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Everything posted by minman1982

  1. minman1982
    The first and last points really stand out to me. The writer brings up Pagan but there are plenty of other Twins relievers that have not been able to close out games. The Twins have blown 26 saves as a team which is tied for third worst in MLB. Since the Twins have only had 51 save opportunities all season, this means that they only converted about 50% of possible saves. Imagine what happens if they convert 65% or 70% of those opportunities. They are probably talking about how they are going to compose their roster in October if this was the case. The baserunning has bothered me all season. They don't bother to even try to steal. They don't take bases when they should and the try to take bases when they shouldn't. There seems to be a pure lack of fundamentals in this area of the game. This is one area the team can improve without adding a single player this off season.
  2. minman1982
    Looks like Cleveland pretty much sealed the deal tonight. Twins have some work to do in the off season if they want to go to the playoffs in 2023. I always thought that 2023 and/or 2024 would be the best chances for this group to make a run in the playoffs. They are in a better place than they were a year ago but still have some room to improve.
  3. minman1982
    Unless both Chicago and Cleveland decide to play down to their competition, there is no way the Twins are close to first a week from now. The Twins have to hope to sweep Cleveland next week and win almost all their upcoming games against Chicago to have a chance (and win some games against the bottom feeders they will be playing in between).
  4. minman1982
    At the beginning of the season, I said that the Twins were probably about a 0.500 team and the third best in the Central. I said they have a chance at the division but everything has to go their way. Looking ahead to next year, it is clear that more help on the pitching side of things is needed. I think we can all agree that the defense is much improved this season over the last season. For comparison, the Twins have allowed 592 runs while scoring 605. The averages for current playoff teams in the AL are 521 runs allowed and 622 runs scored. The Twins offense would be middle of the pack among playoff teams in the AL but none of the current playoff teams has allowed as many runs as the Twins. Some have allowed far fewer (the Yankees about 100 less, the Astros about 140 less). The Twins seem to have a lot of 4th and 5th level starters but not anyone who is truly a top level arm. Maybe Maeda and Mahle come back next year and provide that one-two punch you need as a true contender but I would not count on it. If the Twins are serious, they need a top level free agent starting pitcher. Best case scenario: they have three great pitchers (new player, Maeda, Mahle) with a bunch of other guys with major league experience to round things out. Who knows? Maybe a fourth guy really takes a step forward (Ryan, Winder, anyone) and Maeda ends up being the fourth best on the team. Worst case scenario: Where they are now.
  5. minman1982
    I agree. Let's set Duran up to face the part of the order which is the most dangerous toward the end of a close game. He is the best relief pitcher, so don't put him in the traditional 9th inning closer box. I absolutely hate it when a lesser relief pitcher gives up a game tying or lead changing hit in the 8th to the other teams best batter because they are saving him for the 9th to close the game.
  6. minman1982
    Does anyone remember the stories about how Santana tipped his pitches? Basically, the batters knew when the changeup was coming and still couldn't hit it. Duran is something special. A 100 MPH pitch with that kind of movement is ridiculous. There is absolutely nothing a batter can do with that pitch unless they get incredibly lucky.
  7. minman1982
    When Sano was on, he could hit anything out of the ballpark. When he was off, it was strikeout after strikeout. I wish the guy luck at his next stop. I know the Twins have held on this long because of a guy named David Ortiz, who they probably gave up on too early back in the day. Maybe Sano still becomes Ortiz v2.0, but probably not at this point.
  8. minman1982
    Hopefully, some team picks him up and he gets another shot and a fresh start. Unfortunately, it was past time for the Twins to make this move. If it had not been for injuries upon injuries to are rotation and bullpen, Duffey probably would have been DFA'ed a lot sooner.
  9. minman1982
    I have to agree as well. The Twins will also probably be getting Maeda back at some point before the end of the season. While he will not be a starter this year, he could certainly provide some depth in the bullpen and play a role in 2023. Imagine what this season would look like if Maeda was pitching like he did last year every fifth game. 2023: Mahle, Maeda, Ryan (with a solid year under his belt), Gray, and take your pick from the rest could be the rotation, in no particular order. If the FO really wanted to make a splash, they could go after a top tier free agent starter and round things out nicely.
  10. minman1982
    While it stinks to give up someone like Christian Encarnacion-Strand, that is the price you have to pay for a decent to good MLB starter with multiple years of team control. I think this was a move the front office had to make.
  11. minman1982
    If the price is right, why not take a shot? At least the FO can say they made a move to try to improve the pitching.
  12. minman1982
    Are the Twins going to make some moves to acquire some upgrades both in the starting rotation and that bullpen? If so, I say they have a 50-50 chance. If not, I give them a 1 in 5 chance of winning the division (and 1 in 4 of making the playoffs). I think winning a playoff game should be the goal of this team. A run in the playoffs would be nice but I don't think this is a team that is going to really threaten the top teams in the AL (Yankees, Astros, etc.).
  13. minman1982
    The shoulder is enough to scare me away from this trade. Go after Castillo first. Only think about Mahle if you get a truly great deal. Martin, Wallner, and SWR is too much for a pitcher with a bum shoulder. I would give one of those and another low level prospect but I doubt the Reds would be into it.
  14. minman1982
    Is this a team that can compete in the postseason this year? Before you look at what types of moves to make at the deadline, you have to evaluate what a realistic outcome for this team is. Given the Twins recent postseason history, winning a single postseason game would be huge even if they go no where. Young pitchers with multiple years of team control should be the targets. The Twins need to be thinking about 2023, 2024, and 2025. If they can get some pitching to go along with their offense, they could be one of the best teams in baseball.
  15. minman1982
    The Twins have shown thus far that they are a team that could easily win this division. The White Sox have had some bad luck so are probably better than what their record and stats indicate. The rest of the division is about where I would have expected. The question is how do the Twins matchup with some of the better teams in the AL?
  16. minman1982
    As far as his future with the Twins, does anyone see him getting traded at some point? I have always thought Sano was a streaky hitter. When he is hot, he is among the best in the game; when he is cold, it is ugly. If we could get a decent prospect or two for him, why not make a deal?
  17. minman1982
    What should we expect? Even the best teams lose to poor teams at some point during the season. If we take the Dodgers out of the equation (since it is clear that they are an elite team right now), the Twins are 18-8 against mostly mediocre to poor teams. That is a 0.692 win percentage. If the Twins can take seven out of ten from every poor to mediocre team they will face the rest of the way, we probably should start selling tickets for October. I have been impressed that this team has kept finding ways to win. At the beginning of the season, I would have said that everything needs to go perfectly and they needs some luck on top of that to maybe compete for the postseason. While the Twins have had some luck go their way, things have definitely not gone according to plan. I am happy to celebrate that a month into the season the Twins are three games up in a very winnable division and seem to be in the driver's seat right now. I look forward to some head-to-head games with Cleveland and Chicago later this season.
  18. minman1982
    It sucks to lose Correa but I am excited to see what Royce Lewis can do in the Big Leagues. If Lewis is clearly over matched or just average, it makes the decision easy when Correa returns. Send him back to St. Paul to play every day. If Lewis does really well, it makes this decision a lot harder. Do you find a spot for him to play every day with the Twins or do you send him back to St. Paul? I don't think you can have him ride the bench at Target Field. While this is certainly a more complicated situation, it would be a good problem to have for a change.
  19. minman1982
    I have to agree. If the Twins went down 1-2-3 in the top of the 4th, maybe you could argue that sending Bundy back out for another inning of work is a smart way to protect your bullpen since your offense clearly isn't performing either. The Twins tried their best to claw out of a six-run hole, and almost did it. The fact that this was clearly a winnable game when the bottom of the fourth started should have paved the way for the bullpen (which has been outstanding as of late) to take over. With the number of starters we currently have and how well some of the others are performing, I would have to believe that Bundy's days as a Twins starter are coming to an end pretty soon.
  20. minman1982
    "Team chemistry" is one of those amorphous things that is really hard to pin down. How do you know if a team has good chemistry or not? Obviously, if you are winning games, a lot of the little issues in a clubhouse get ignored. I may not like you very much but if you are going to help us win, I will put up with you and even pretend to be your friend. Losing does the opposite. It is easy on a losing team to blame others for your team's performance and try to find scapegoats for every situation. Since it is next to impossible to actually quantify "team chemistry" in any meaningful way, it is hard to answer the initial question. My gut feeling is that it is a little of both, winning games contributes to better team chemistry and better team chemistry increases your odds of winning a game. Basically, a positive feedback loop where one improves the other and vice versa.
  21. minman1982
    If you are a pitcher and you can trust your defense to make the routine plays and make a couple spectacular plays mixed in, it gives you a lot more confidence to throw the pitches you want to throw. If you can trust your infield to do their job, you don't need to try to strike everyone out. Correa and Urshela are definitely improvements on the defensive side of the ball. Polanco seems much more comfortable at second than at shortstop. I would be fine with going with Arraez/Kiriloff (when he returns) at 1B, Polanco at 2B, Correa at SS, and Urshela at 3B as the normal defensive alignment.
  22. minman1982
    While walk off wins are exciting, it was nice to have a boring win for a change. Joe Ryan completely dominated the Tigers and it felt like the Twins were in complete control from start to finish. If this is going to be a team with aspirations of postseason success, this is what needs to happen when we play mediocre to bad teams, like the Tigers. It would be nice to complete the sweep today and bring a seven game winning streak to Tampa on Friday. The Rays should prove to be a more capable opponent so this will be a good test for the Twins. If the Twins can look competitive over the weekend, maybe this team is for real. If they get their butts handed to them, we will know that the AL Central just stinks. If the Twins look dominant in Tampa, maybe they enter the conversation of legitimately good teams. I would be happy to see them not get swept over the weekend. 1-2 against a probably superior opponent at their home field is nothing to be embarrassed about.
  23. minman1982
    When I coached sixth graders, we taught our catcher (or any other player for that matter) to NEVER throw the ball back to third on a play like the last play of the game. Nothing good comes out of throwing the ball again. Best case scenario, you get Urshela for the second out and Larnach probably scores in the process. Better to take the bases loaded one out than risk giving up a run (or two) by doing something dumb.
  24. minman1982
    I don't see Correa staying in Minnesota long term. Depending how this season goes, I would not be surprised if he opts out. The only advantage I see to stay beyond this season is to build more time between the present and his time with the Astros when they won a the trash can World Series. I don't see the Twins as a team that is going to be willing to give a long term deal with $300M, unless it has a ton of incentives in it and a lower base salary (kind of like the Buxton contract).
  25. minman1982
    The answer is yes. Byron Buxton is the best player in baseball when he is on the field. Let's put it into perspective. Over the last two seasons, Buxton has 0.076 WAR/game played, best in MLB. The next best is Mike Trout at 0.069 WAR/game. Buxton is currently third in the AL in WAR at 1.2 (and he has missed 6 of his teams first sixteen games). Let's assume that he manages to be healthy enough to play in 110 more games this season. If he produces at the same rate he did over the last two seasons while on the field, that would put him at 9.6 WAR for the season. For comparison, a 10-WAR season is generally considered an all-time great season (only eight position players have every done this, Mike Trout has done it twice). The key question is can he stay on the field? If he does, he is a generational talent like Trout, Barry Bonds, Joe Morgan, or Cal Ripken Jr. The fact that he hasn't been able to stay on the field consistently is the only reason the Twins could sign him to an extension. I think the good news is that even though Buxton has had more than his share of injuries, none of those injuries seem to be related or recurring. If you talk about players who have simply had bad luck when it comes to injuries, Buxton has to be near the top of the list.
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