minman1982

Got to love that Sano hits a 2 run homer in his first at bat today. Looks like the 0-21 to start a season is going to have to wait until next year. Then he backs it up by WALKING in his next plate appearance.

1-161?

It will be interesting to see if this opens the gates a little bit for the offense. Overall in this series, I feel the pitching has been decent. If we ignore the stinker of an inning that Duffey threw yesterday, the bullpen has been nearly rock solid. All three starters have been about what I would have expected. It was really nice to see the bats get going this afternoon. Six homeruns from 5 players today with Arraez and Urshela getting into the action the last couple days shows that there is some power in this lineup. It feels like this is a team that could score ten runs in about any game they play this season. Play of the day for me was the throw from Correa in the first to prevent Winker from scoring. Great relay from Kirilloff and great throw to the plate. Winker was almost to third when Kirilloff started to throw the ball from the outfield wall. Correa has shown just with his defensive play that he is worth $30M this season. The Donaldson trade is looking pretty good right now. Urshela and Sanchez have shown they can contribute. We dumped Donaldson's contract and freed up the money to get Correa. Lastly, I never felt that Donaldson ever really fit in with this team and in this clubhouse. Urshela, Sanchez, and Correa all seem to fit in.

I like the idea of sending Winder down to start the season and maybe using a few bullpen games in the first three times through the rotation. If there will be a 28 man roster to start the season, that gives you enough bullpen depth to pull this off. It is also worth noting that while Ober and Ryan were good last year, the sample size on them is very small. It is certainly possible that one or both of these guys plays themself out of a starting spot, in which case Winder (or someone else) will need to step up. Either way, I think the Twins are going to need to get another established major league level starting pitcher if they are going to actually try to compete this year. I could see the FO waiting to see what happens in the first month before giving up any of the farm to get a pitcher by trade.

The problem I see with the "opener" strategy is that it requires you to put a lot of work on your bullpen during that game. In order to be successful using this strategy as more than a stop-gap for a single game, you need to both have quality bullpen depth and a couple of other quality workhorse type starters to protect your bullpen in other games. If you top four starters only average five innings and you are trying to use your "opener" as your fifth starter, you would be relying on your bullpen to go about 5 innings per game. I don't believe the Twins (or many other teams, for that matter) have the bullpen depth to do this for 162 games. The question I have is are we better off having two pitchers (say, Jax and Thorpe) give us five innings of work or sign someone like Cueto who might also be able to give you five quality innings? For the record, unless Cueto is dirt cheap, I don't think he has enough of an upside to make it worth signing him. Also, this FO doesn't really have a great track record when it comes to picking starting pitchers out of another team's trash bin. The Twins also seem to have a lot of near MLB ready starting pitchers. Could the fifth spot be a combination of these options mainly to see if we have a diamond in the rough somewhere in our organization? Maybe Thorpe or Jax surprises everyone and is dominant and shows they are a legitimate starter. I doubt this will happen but you never know, stranger things have happened in baseball.

We will see what happens tomorrow, but I cannot imagine both sides wanting to push this thing far enough to have the whole 2022 season (or even a large portion of it) called off. If you think what happened in 1994-95 was bad for the sport, think about what losing a whole season (after playing through COVID) because owners and players can't figure out how to split up billions upon billions of dollars would look like. It would not be good for the owners or the players to lose the 2022 season.

The question in my mind is whether the Twins are going to be able to compete in 2022 or should they do a mini-rebuild and shoot for competing in 2023 or 2024. If it is the former, I would shop Jeffers and see what we could get in return for a trade. If we could get a functional major league starting pitcher, that would go a long way to being competitive next season. I think we keep Garver and Rortvedt in this case as our two catchers. If, on the other hand, the Twins are not looking to be competitive in 2022, maybe trading Garver makes more sense. There would certainly be an interested team or two out there and we might be able to snag a couple of near MLB ready players that can be developed in 2022 for the majors in either 2023 or 2024.

I was there tonight and it was a fun and exciting game. A little bit of everything. What was up with the White Sox backup catcher? He allowed the Twins to advance four bases on passed balls. What you probably didn't see on the television broadcast was that the Twins runners on bases clearly smelled the blood in the water and were taking huge secondary leads at every opportunity. Gordon's triple was a thing of beauty. I look forward to seeing him in the lineup for years to come. I think Thielbar was left in too long and Duffey just looked terrible. Rogers really deserves the credit for preserving the lead and saving the game. Robles was alright but he had some margin of error to work with. What you are missing is the Sano at bat after Kirilloff's HBP and Kepler's walk. Sano looked lost up there. Sure, he got a hit later in the game and eventually scored a run but you need to advance the runners with two on, no one out in that situation. Put the ball in play. Don't worry about swinging for the fences. Bunt the ball, if you need to. I was not surprised he struck out on 3-2 (in fact, I commented to the person next to me that Sano wasn't going to take this pitch so why throw him something in the zone). If I know it, every pitcher on the planet knows he wants to swing on that count and is going to throw him something low, probably out of the zone. That is exactly what happened.

I think we first of all need to be realistic about Berrios as a pitcher. He is not an ace level starting pitcher and probably will never be one. He has a career ERA just above 4.00, he strikes out about 1 per inning pitched, and he has a career WHIP of 1.26. I think we may have a skewed view because the rest of the rotation (aside from maybe Pineda) has been so putrid this year. With that said, he would make a solid #2 or #3 on many teams or round out the rotation of a really good team. If you are in the playoff hunt and maybe need a starting pitcher to get you over the hump, Berrios might be your guy. I like the idea of asking him and his agent what he wants to be paid or what he is expecting in terms of a contract. If they are looking for something in the range of 5 yr/$75M, that would seem fair and reasonable to me. The question then becomes can the Twins build a team around him over the next five years. If they are looking at 5 yr/$150M (ace money), no way. Now if someone like the Blue Jays really blows the Twins away with an offer, why not make the deal? If the Jays would be willing to part with a couple top prospects for a season and a half of Berrios, it would seem like a no-brainer to me.

I forgot that was his MVP year. I would take Morneau in his prime over Sano any day of the week.

What is cursing the Twins is terrible pitching and poor performance in high leverage situations. The Twins currently have the worst pitching staff by WAR in MLB (no surprise to anyone). While you might like to blame the relievers for this, the starters have helped lead the charge to the bottom of the MLB. Minnesota starting pitchers are currently the second worst in MLB by WAR (better than only the Chicago Cubs). In fact, the only Minnesota pitcher that is pitching consistent with his past performance is Big Mike. While the Twins offense has generally been decent (they are somehow still in the top 10 in SLG, AVG, OPS, and a host of other offensive stats as a team), it doesn't take much statistical analysis to know that it has not performed in high leverage and late inning situations. I don't think it is any surprise that the Twins are in the bottom 10 in almost every conceivable batting stat in the late innings and with RISP and 2 outs. They are also an insane 0-7 in extra inning games and I think they have only won one or two one run games. If you can't generate offense in the eighth, ninth, and tenth innings, you are going to have a ton of trouble winning close games. Some of this could be chalked up to "bad luck" and may work itself out over the course of the long season but so far this season has been watching everything that could go wrong, go wrong. Bad luck, cursed, or not, I can't imagine this team being able to dig itself out of the hole they are in. It is time to think about next summer and what types of moves need to be made the rest of the season and this upcoming off-season to improve this team moving forward.

For the record, the 2006 Twins got back to .500 at a record of 34-34. If the 2021 Twins are going to match that they will need to go 20-7 over the next 27 games. While that is certainly not impossible, this doesn't feel like a team that can win two thirds of its games for a month. It doesn't get any better the rest of the season. If we assume it will take about 95 wins to get into the playoffs, the Twins need to go 81-40 the rest of the season.

That should just about end any hopes of turning the 2021 season around. A week ago, I was looking up the 2006 Twins just to see how bad their low point was in May. I was shocked to realize that the 2006 Twins were only one game better in mid-May than the 2021 edition. There are many key differences between then and now. No Johan Santana. No Fransisco Lirano. No Joe Mauer. No Pirahnas. No hitting everything in sight with runners in scoring position. The 2021 Twins are not going to go 16-2 (or whatever crazy record they had in 2006) in interleague play this year. The 2006 Twins were a good team that was underperforming in April and May. It feels like the 2021 team is not a good team.

Of course Duffey threw at Mercedes intentionally. Why not? You can send the message to the young player and move on with life. Maybe, just maybe, you breathe a little bit of life into this team that has seemed lifeless for much of the last month. It isn't like putting him on down by two in that situation is likely going to matter. Who would have thought Sano was going to hit that bomb in the 8th? If I am Duffey, I probably think we are going to lose anyway so why not take care of business. I was lucky enough to turn it on in the ninth and kept watching (mainly to see how we were going to lose this one). I am glad I did. Finally, a nice late inning performance. If they can somehow pull another rabbit out of the hat this afternoon and get another W, they will have won a series against one of the best teams in baseball right now and they will have a winning streak (in this season, I will count two in a row as a streak).

LaRussa was not pleased with Mercedes. He apparently gave the sign to take and Mercedes did not listen. A quote from LaRussa, "There will be consequences he has to endure here within our family. This is a learning experience. He has to understand why there is a take sign in this situation. I am absolutely certain he is not swinging 3-0 in another situation. You can't give the other team an excuse to take a shot at one of our players. I heard he said something like, "I play my game". No he doesn't. He plays the game of Major League Baseball, respects the game, and respects his opponents." I would have loved to been a fly on the wall when LaRussa had a conversation with Mercedes last night in the locker room. I would have also loved to see Gardy managing this game when this happened. I bet his response would have been different than Baldelli's. Probably some expletive laden tirade that gets him kicked out after he has Astudillo hit the next batter with his 45 mph curveball.

Sure they have been unlucky. Add poor luck to a bullpen that has been awful and you get a team that is on track to lose 100 games. It is probably time to begin asking what assets the Twins have that could be traded for prospects and young players. Does someone want the services of Nelson Cruz for the rest of the season? Anyone willing to take on the Miguel Sano reclamation project? Maybe Taylor Rodgers can attract a potential suitor or two? Are the Twins going to pay Buxton to keep him long term or is it time to get what we can for him before he hits the free agent market? It might be time to start thinking about 2022 and beyond.

Having someone around like Astudillo, who can competently fill in the gaps, is certainly valuable. Even if he is only slightly above replacement level, that would be good enough for the role he is currently playing (third catcher/second utility player/Josh Donaldson insurance plan).

I still play MVP 2005. Even after fifteen years, it is enjoyable and fun. That is the hallmark of a great game.

If we assume things will go back to normal in 2021 (that is a big assumption at this point), I would probably try to resign Cruz for another year. He not only was the team's most consistent bat this season but also is a good clubhouse presence and leader. While I would love to see Roasrio back, I don't see him being worth $10M. Now, we have no idea what arbitration is even going to look like this offseason so maybe that number will end up being less. If we could get him for $5-7M, I would get him back. I think there are options that are equally good in the Twins lineup that cost less than $10M. The payroll flexibility is going to be more important. Can Rooker play other infield positions? I don't see the Twins bringing back both Adrianza and Gonzales (they might not bring either back) so having someone who can play a lot of positions could be helpful. What about Royce Lewis? Is this how he can fit in, the utility guy who can play about everywhere? We have to understand that the Twins have been very lucky to have two guys who can play virtually every position on the field the last two seasons. Try to trade Garver (or maybe even Jeffers) and see what you can get in return. Can we get a handful of prospects with high upside? Can we get a major league ready starting pitcher? Can we get someone who can provide outfield depth? It is worth seeing what the market is but I would suspect that lots of teams are going to be cautious about making moves. It is also worth pointing out that the current CBA expires after next season so we don't really know what the financial picture looks like beyond 2021. I would bet that there will be lots of short term deals in free agency this year, rather than long term big deals.

How about an easy solution to this? There are no electronic or video devices allowed in the dugout, bullpen, or clubhouse during a game, other than the phone from the bullpen to the dugout. There is no "instant replay feed" in the dugout or somewhere where someone can communicate with those in the dugout or on the field. A manager wants to challenge? Make that decision based on what you saw in real time from the dugout or what your players are telling you from the field.

The problem I have is that Homer Bailey's best is about a 3.50 ERA (that is the ceiling). That means he is not all that much better than Gibson. What is the floor? If it is a 6.10 ERA, we probably can cobble something together with what we have to match that. If he can eat some innings until Pineda gets back and not be terrible, maybe this is a deal that is worth it. The problem is that this FO has caught lightning in a bottle a few times already. Eventually, your luck is going to run out and you need to have the talent to win.

Obviously, a lot to say about the pitching. I felt the pitching last night was at least respectable but the first two games were awful. You can't walk 8 batters in New York (see games 1 and 2) and expect the Yankees to not make you pay. I would be shocked if you could beat the Tigers walking 8 batters in a game. The Twins were not lacking in opportunities to score. The offense let the team down as much as the pitching. We left 25 runners on base in the series. The Yankees only left 22 on base and it felt like they always had runners on. The difference is that the Yankee runners were crossing home plate to get off the bases while the Twins were not. 3 for 28 with runners in scoring position. That is not going to cut it. It is hard to know how much injuries played a role in this diminished offense versus the Yankees simply being well prepared to throw a ton of sliders, changeups, and curve balls. There are the negatives from this series. On a more positive note, I feel Odorizzi did a fine job last night. Not easy coming in down 0-2 against a team that has dominated you in the first two games. He is a free agent after this season so the Twins should probably be calling his agent to see if we can work something out. He is never going to be Verlander but I would be more than comfortable trotting Odorizzi out as the number 3 starter. Looking ahead, the Twins only have about $19.5M committed to payroll next season. This does not count the $12M option to Nelson Cruz which I would bet the Twins exercise. We also still have a good core of guys that are under team control for one, two, or three more seasons. That means that there is a ton of money in the bank (they had a payroll in the $130M range this year) to go out and get someone.

In a win or go home playoff game, anything is possible. Strasburg never had a relief appearance in his entire career until two nights ago. If he is the best option in a game you need to win, it becomes more tempting to go with him even if he only gives you a few innings.

I go Odorizzi, Dobnak, Berrios and then see what happens. Use Perez out of the pen in the first three, if needed. This also gives you the option of starting Odorizzi in Game 4 on short rest, if the Twins are down 2-1. I think we start with our most consistent pitcher and set that pitcher up to pitch again in the series if needed.

Agreed on Berrios. Right now, I think we have to go Odorizzi against the Yankees in Game 1 and then either Berrios or Dobnak in Game 2. If we win Game 1, I would start Dobnak in Game 2 and save Berrios for Game 3. This is a complete dreamland scenario, but imagine going 2-0 in New York and having Berrios to start Game 3 with Odorizzi ready for Game 4. That is about as perfect a situation as the Twins could find in this upcoming ALDS.