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minman1982

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Everything posted by minman1982

  1. minman1982
    While I am excited for the upcoming season, there are a lot of "ifs" right now. I am reasonably confident that Correa's 2023 season was an outlier. Without the distraction of free agency (thinking he is going to be a Giant, then a Met, and then back to the Twins) and a healthy foot, I would expect him to perform more like 2022 than 2023. What happens to this team if Buxton can stay healthy and play CF for 80 or 100 games this season? Even if he bats his career average of .235, he has enough speed to turn some singles into doubles and create some havoc on the basepaths (I don't think 30 steals is unreasonable if he plays 100 games). Maybe the Twins get super lucky and get early 2021 Buxton back. What happens if Royce Lewis is the real deal? The sample size on Lewis is still small but it looks like he can hit. In his 70 MLB games, he is an over .300 hitter with and OPS+ of 149. If this is an accurate picture of what the Twins have, a healthy Lewis could easily hit 30 HR. If some of the other pieces (Wallner, Julien, Jeffers, Kiriloff, maybe even Kepler, if he is still around) perform too, this could be a really fun offense to watch.
  2. minman1982
    I like the idea of using win probably added to assess the value of a RP. I do not like comparing saves because I don't believe the save actually records the true value of a relief pitcher. Think about it, a guy comes in to pitch the bottom of the ninth with a three run lead and gives up two runs on four hits and a walk but preserves the lead and gets a save. Is that really a good performance? On the other hand, if you have a dominant reliever, why not use him in the 7th or 8th inning of a tie game when the other team has loaded the bases? That is where you want your best guy on the mound to shut the other team down. He isn't going to get a save out of the deal but he may actually be the one the preserves the victory by not allowing any runs to score.
  3. minman1982
    Nick, my experience with the Twins has been similar to yours. As a freshman in college in the Fall of 2002, I remember cramming into a 8'x8' dorm room with about thirty other guys around a tiny TV to cheer the Twins on. Unfortunately, Troy Percival was a beast and the Twins had no answer for the Angels closer. The season that I remember most fondly is 2006, Mauer's first batting title. The team looked dead in the water in mid-May. Then everything seemed to go right for almost the rest of the season. June of 2006: AL player of the month: Mauer, AL pitcher of the month: Santana, AL rookie of the month: Liriano, that doesn't happen for a team very often. It was truly awesome ride for a fan. As someone who had not seriously watched much baseball before, I kind of took Mauer for granted. Simply having a guy who can consistently produce offensively at the catcher position for the better part of a decade is a rarity in itself. Looking back, it is clear that he was a special and unique talent. I am happy to see his name enshrined with the other greats of the game. He certainly deserves it.
  4. minman1982
    Gordon and the Twins will work something out. They are only $260,000 apart, which is not a lot of money when you are talking MLB payroll. They should tell Gordon that they would love to have him back for $1.05M plus some performance incentives that can get him to $1.25M. That pretty much splits to difference between where the Twins are and what Gordon wants and gives him the chance to go out and earn the last $200K. As for Mauer, a year ago, I would have said he might get in the Hall of Fame someday. A month ago, I would have said he will get in the Hall of Fame but not on the first ballot. Now, I am pleasantly surprised that it is looking more and more likely that he will get elected to the Hall of Fame on his first ballot. For the old school voters, it is hard to argue against three batting titles and an MVP award as a catcher. For reference, the only other catchers to win a batting title and MVP are Hall of Famer Ernie Lombardi who won two batting titles and an MVP and Buster Posey who won a batting title and an MVP. Also, the hometown kid turned first overall pick turned superstar is a great story. For the new school voters, compared with other catchers in MLB history, Mauer is 9th in WAR, 5th in WAR for his best seven seasons (right between a couple of no names Ivan Rodriguez and Yogi Berra), 12th in Wins above Average, 7th in JAWS score, etc. He is a better than the average catcher in the Hall of Fame in most of the new metrics and matches up well with other Hall of Fame catchers.
  5. minman1982
    Mauer deserves to be in the Hall of Fame. Is he a first-ballot Hall of Famer? Maybe, maybe not. It is too bad that injuries forced him over the first base toward the end of his career.
  6. minman1982
    I agree that Farmer is probably the hardest choice of this bunch. The payroll question does become big. I certainly think having Farmer and what he brings to the table is worth $6M for the season. The key question is does this $6M come out of the pot to get a playoff caliber starting pitcher to replace Gray. I also think if both Castro and Gordon accept offers, one of them will probably gets traded. There is certainly a team out there that would make a deal for one of these guys at these prices. Could one of these guys be in a deal that brings a pitcher over? A bench of Castro, Gordon, and Farmer for about $10M? Three guys that can play solid defense almost anywhere on the field and can contribute to offense. If the payroll is there, why not keep all three?
  7. minman1982
    Kepler and Polanco are both slightly better than average major league hitters and solid defensive contributors. Neither of these guys is ever going to compete for an MVP but both a decent players and the cost to keep both is reasonable. The question is, who replaces them if they are traded? Of the two, I would think Polanco is a little more likely to get traded simply because I feel the Twins have more options in the infield. The outfield is a little thin and the Twins probably already need an every day CF since Buxton isn't going to play there every day for a whole season.
  8. minman1982
    Here is what I would offer Gray: 3 years/$70M total with player option after each year. Maybe a structure like $30M the first season, and $20M the following two seasons. Put some additional incentives in there that can make it worth up to about $90-100M total. This assumes he rejects the QO that the Twins are going to offer.
  9. minman1982
    Does Odorizzi want a minor league deal or will someone give him a chance to pitch in MLB right away next season? I am also not sure if having him in AAA makes sense. There are plenty of young pitchers down there that need the experience right now. Aaron Hicks could make a nice Byron Buxton insurance plan but I would rather resign Michael A. Taylor. I wouldn't want Sano if he paid the Twins to let him play. Too much baggage to be worth it.
  10. minman1982
    Since I think it is likely Sonny Gray does not return, I think the first order of business is to get another top end SP to complement Pablo Lopez. Let's also assume that Shohei Ohtani, Julio Urias, and Blake Snell are all out of reach for the Twins too. What about a guy like Lucas Giolito or Jordan Montgomery? Both guys have been decent over the last few years and could be solid additions. They could also go with someone like Aaron Nola who is going to eat a ton of innings and protect the bullpen. The second order of business is finding an everyday center fielder since Byron Buxton is in all likelihood not it. I am in favor of seeing if Michael A. Taylor would be willing to come back next season if the deal is right. Maybe Willi Castro fills in. Could this be a place for Austin Martin? Could we trade Larnach for someone who can play CF? Is there someone else lurking in the minors that could maybe fill in here? The third order of business would be to see if they can find a trade partner for Kepler or Polanco, particularly if they could solve the SP problem in first order of business through this path. I like both of these guys but if you can reallocate $10M through a trade to solve another need, why not do it? There is no need to salary dump, so the deal has to be good.
  11. minman1982
    I agree. They should be open to almost any deal that will make this team better. I would even consider a high-end starting pitcher for Buxton (this will never happen because of Buxton's injury history and contract).
  12. minman1982
    That is exactly what I thought. I am glad Lopez proved me wrong. He should be leading this rotation for several years to come.
  13. minman1982
    My dream in March was to have the Twins get to the playoffs and win a playoff game. They won a playoff series and could have won a series against the Astros if a few more things went their way. I was not really sad about the way the season ended. This team hung in there against one of the best organizations of the last decade and made it competitive (only Game 3 was a true blowout). They were a couple of mistake pitches in Game 1 and a couple of timely hits in Game 4 away from winning this series. That's baseball and 29 fan bases are left waiting for next year when it is all said and done. Now on to the next task, building on what they accomplished this season. Can they keep Sonny Gray? Can they add a couple of bats and maybe another reliever? What to do with Byron Buxton? Can they trade someone like Polanco or Kepler? Can they count on Lewis and Julien? Lots of questions need answers before Spring Training. Looking at the rest of the division, it seems like the AL Central is certainly winnable again next season. How do the Twins get better going into next year?
  14. minman1982
    I will admit, I was not convinced about the Lopez trade when it happened. I thought giving up Arraez wasn't worth it. I gladly stand corrected on this one. It was one of those rare trades that actually works out for both teams. The Marlins got a great hitter who gets on base and the Twins got an true ace-level pitcher.
  15. minman1982
    It would be interesting to know how this game would have played out if the Twins scored a couple of runs in the first instead of letting Verlander out of the jam. There were plenty of opportunities early that the Twins squandered. That is baseball though. Everything seemed to go their way against Toronto (and Toronto didn't seem to do themselves any favors). Houston is a talented ball team with a lot of post season experience. The reality is that the if the Twins can take one of the first two, that puts them in good shape to win the series. Looking forward to seeing Lopez tomorrow.
  16. minman1982
    I think it is a fairly even matchup. The Astros offense may be a little worse than the Blue Jays but their pitching is a little better. I think this is going to come down to the Twins offense. Can they score a few runs early to put the pressure on the Astros? I will go out on a limb and say the Twins win the series in 4.
  17. minman1982
    What a luxury to be able to pick between Ober, Maeda, and Ryan! The question is now does Ryan pitch Game 2 with Lopez/Gray doing Games 3 and 4? In my opinion, if they win Game 1, Ryan gets the nod for Game 2. If they lose Game 1, Lopez gets Game 2.
  18. minman1982
    Definitely!!!! Correa said in a post-game interview that he knew the pickoff play would be open because Blue Jays runners could not hear the 3rd base coach telling them to go back. He just needed to decide when to attempt the play. Two outs, full count, runners on 2nd and 3rd is the ideal time to try that play.
  19. minman1982
    I would probably say: 1a: Royce Lewis: he put the team on his back in Game 1 with his two homeruns. If the Twins lose game 1, they are probably cleaning out their lockers after Game 2. 1b: Carlos Correa: simply for the two defensive plays he made that prevented runs from scoring. The throw home in Game 1 was a thing of absolute beauty. The pickoff in Game 2 showed great game awareness, understanding of what the Blue Jays wanted to do, and skill at his position. You pay a shortstop $30M/year for these types of plays. Can't really argue with 3 through 5. Maybe Duran as an honorable mention. He struck out five over two innings pitched and looked almost unhittable. It is nice to have someone who can slam the door shut in the ninth.
  20. minman1982
    The pickoff of Guerrero at second last night was my favorite play of the game. A good heads-up play by Correa and Gray to take advantage of Guerrero's generous lead off. On a 3-2 count, both those runners are going on the pitch and a base hit ties the game. Not only does the pick-off end the threat but it also forced Bichette to start over after battling to get to 3-2. The throw home in Game 1 may be the best throw I have ever seen a shortstop make. I was actually yelling at the TV for him not to throw the ball and concede the run because I was concerned he was going to throw the ball away and let the runner advance on an error. Both of these plays were absolute gut punches to the Toronto offense. These are types of plays I usually expect to happen to the Twins.
  21. minman1982
    Agreed. I thought Taylor was going to end up being Buxton's backup, not the everyday plan in the outfield. Even if Buxton comes back for the ALDS, Taylor has earned the spot and the start in my opinion.
  22. minman1982
    If you look at teams that succeed in the postseason, there is almost always that unexpected hero that emerges. For us who have watched this team this year, Lewis delivering on the big stage is maybe not totally unexpected but the rest of the world is waiting for someone like Correa to be the hero (in fairness to Correa, that throw he made to the plate was a thing of true beauty). Congratulations to Royce Lewis on his performance yesterday. Lewis was certainly the hero of the moment but this was a team effort. Lopez kept them in the game, the previously mentioned Correa play keeping a run off the board, Jax getting out of a little bit of a jam in the 8th, Duran throwing five curveballs in a row before unleashing that 100+ mph fastball making the three Toronto hitters he faced look silly. I hope this team wins a few more games. The main mission (win a playoff game) has been accomplished. Hopefully, they can add some icing to the cake today by winning the series.
  23. minman1982
    My thoughts too. I would go with Lopez, Gray, and Ryan in that order. This also sets up having Ryan start Game 1 of the ALDS if the Twins win the first two games, which would not be a bad way to start that series either. I might consider keeping Maeda off the Wild Card Roster altogether to save him for the ALDS (either game 1 or game 2). They could have Ober come out of the pen in a true jam. I am still curious to see what Paddack can bring to the table. What a position to be in, multiple arms that can be relied on.
  24. minman1982
    Would we rather have the Twins in a spot where they have no choice but to pick up Polanco's option because there is nothing else on the roster? This is a great problem to have. If I were in their shoes, I would see if there is a trade candidate available. Does someone want a couple of years of Polanco at a fairly reasonable price for a few prospects? While I believe Polanco is currently the best option at 2B, this would give other guys a chance to prove themselves at that position. Would Polanco be willing to DH? Maybe this is a place they could put him to give other guys time at 2B. Buxton is never going to be healthy for the whole season so there are a lot of DH plate appearances available.
  25. minman1982
    Let's say that the Twins go 9-10 down the stretch, which would be disappointing given the level of competition that they are going to play. Cleveland would need to end the season 17-1 to claim the division. The Cleveland series last week was basically the last nail in the coffin. Now on to the next task: win a playoff game.
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