Road trip

I read this and I thought...Hm, is that first sentence correct? I had to look. The most recent data I could easily and quickly find was from 2020, from https://www.mlb.com/news/baseball-endangered-species-lefty-hitter-lefty-thrower. In that season: 40% of MLB plate appearances were from lefty hitters Only 11.6% of non-pitchers in MLB threw left-handed. Thus, actually, most left handed hitters at the MLB level throw right handed. The split in 2020 was approximately 33% L-L to 67% L-R. The article goes on to explain that right handed throwers have become increasingly prevalent because short benches have led to an increase in the desirability of positional flexibility, and utility players have to throw right handed if they are going to play anything other than OF-1b. So... teach your kids to throw righty and hit lefty, which has always been pretty solid advice anyway.

Huh, a week ago we had Eels, not really a backup shortstop, but capable there in a pinch and ready to provide depth at AAA. Twins traded away middle infield depth for more catcher depth... and now have an even larger problem with middle infield depth. And now they are supposed to sign Arcia, after already overpaying for a subpar 31 yo catcher? Look, the Twins aren't going to have adequate depth next year. Depth is thin everywhere except corner outfield. Yes, even the "great" depth of starting pitching will probably fail, as it seems to take 10 - 12 starters to get through a season these days. They might lose 80 games, or they might lose 100. That'll be the case with Fitzgerald as the backup SS, or conceivably any other player the Twins may pick up. Just roll with Fitzgerald to keep the seat warm for Culpepper in '27. It's going to be a development year, not a contending year.

When does ownership and FO next plan to compete for a playoff run? That's the "core" question, and impacts who you hold on to vs who you trade. It is safe to say there is no realistic plan to compete in '26, despite what the marketers will tell ticket buyers (which is not the marketer's fault...every team sells hope). I find it a little unlikely that they will be able to compete in '27. It isn't impossible, but a lot of younger players would need to get better quickly, and ownership would need to be willing to spend a little more to acquire or retain talent. My guess is that this is what Falvey is aiming for, or hoping for, because he probably won't survive in his job if the Twins can't compete by '27. I have no idea if ownership will invest for '27 though. If the Twins are going to wait to compete until '28 or '29 or beyond then there is little reason to hold on to any of the current core. Sure, holding the core will allow the Twins to hope for 80 wins instead of 70, but is that a meaningful difference? Might as well continue to trade them for prospects as was done with Duran, Jax, etc. and hope that your scouts correctly identified good young players in return. I don't love this answer, but I fear its the realistic one.

I can concede that the coaches may not be the primary problem. But the Twins org has an unfortunate habit of giving up on players that go on to perform very well elsewhere. Somehow, nobody in the org saw value in Ronny Henriquez last winter. A 24yo hard throwing reliever, and the Twins just cut him to make room for....Michael Tonkin. Henriquez was outstanding for Miami this year, far better than any year Tonkin has ever had in his long career. That's on the coaches and/or GM. Somehow, nobody in the org saw much value in Yenier Cano. Similar story, not successful for the Twins in a brief trial, but very good for Baltimore in '23 and '24. Plenty of other examples exist. Meanwhile, the prospects that the Twins do hang onto tend to underperform expectations. It makes one wonder how they will do if/when they get away from Minnesota. There is either a talent identification problem, or a player development problem. Coaches and management bear some responsibility for the results.

Coach LaTroy? Heck, as thin as the bullpen was at the end of the year maybe he can still pitch!?! He should be well rested!

Use of the word "rebuild" in the title feels a little too optimistic. It would imply that Twins ownership intends to build a contender again, long term. It's possible that rather than attempting to win, they are content to put together a long string of sub-.500 seasons while pocketing revenue sharing money as profits. According to Bob Nightengale's recent article the Pirates were among the more profitable teams in MLB the past few years, and they haven't had a winning season for a decade. I don't doubt that business model could appeal to the Pohlads. Who better to lead such an effort on the field than Shelton?

Wallner has some interesting company. Acuna, Seager, Chapman, etc... lots of good players on this list. Mostly they share something in common...they played on teams that underperformed offensively in 2025. Maybe they were the causes of that underperformance, but I suspect the lack of RBI's was also a lack of baserunners to drive in. Look, he's cheap, he had success in 2023 and 24, and he might return to that form. If some other team is willing to pay a rate based on his '23 and '24 stats I'd certainly listen, but I'd be reluctant to sell low on Wallner simply due to a bad 2025.

Pirates have Livvy Dunne in the stands for 1/5th of their home games. Edge, Pirates. 😁 But, more seriously, the Twins are probably more like the AL version of the Reds than the Pirates. Cheap owners, poor tv revenue, dependent on developing their own players, capable of making the playoffs when the stars align, but have typically exited early. Making a run in the playoffs apparently takes a minor miracle or a fluke, and is probably only going to happen very rarely under baseball's current financial structure. I'm hoping for one more World Series in my lifetime. It's been 30+ years. If I can get that I'll be happy.

If you tender Larnach, I'm not certain you can trade him. Been there, done that with Kyle Farmer a couple of years ago. 4.7 million for a platoon DH is a big bite for any franchise that isn't awash in cash, and the wealthier franchises probably will want a better DH. I like Larnach. I had high hopes for Larnach a couple of years ago. But for a cash-strapped organization like the Twins I just don't know how you can make that kind of investment when one of Gonzalez/Jenkins/Fedko/etc can fill his lineup spot for league minimum. Limited funds need to be spent filling other holes.

I'd move on from both Clemens and Julien. If I have to pick an internal option, I've kinda come around on trying Ryan Fitzgerald as the last man off the bench next year. Better defender than Clemens (and able to play SS), and may just end up being a better bat. He will probably get dropped off the 40-man, but perhaps he'd come back on a NRI in spring training. At a minimum it would be nice to stash Fitzgerald in AAA so he can be the inevitable injury replacement.

I think it was a faddish "Schwarber effect". Phillies started hitting Schwarber leadoff a few years ago. Schwarber of course is a power hitting, slow, high OBP/low batting average guy. Back in 2023 Schwarber didn't even manage to hit .200 while batting leadoff almost exclusively. He did draw a lot of walks though (and also led MLB in strikeouts), and a few other teams copied this, putting power hitters in the leadoff spot. The Phils have since relented after doing this a couple of years, and Schwarber mostly hits in the "2" spot now, although he moves around a bit. Of course, Schwarber is a superior hitter to Wallner, but as hitters their profile is a little similar. Anyway... it didn't work, and I doubt we see Wallner in the leadoff spot again...

Certainly a disappointing year for Wallner. His inability to catch up to high fastballs this year was exploited pretty relentlessly by the league. Something changed... in '23 and '24 he was a fastball hitter that struggled badly with breaking balls. This year he hit breaking balls very well (.250 BA, .573 SLG), but high fastballs just ate him up. Whether it was health, a change in his swing, a change in the pitches he was looking for, or something else...overall it didn't work. The walks and power remain valuable, but a BA nearer .250 would sure be nice. He remains inexpensive for one more year. Thus, he will get one more chance, hopefully as primary DH and occasional RF. Maybe he will put it all together in '26, but he needs to return to the hitting form he showed in '23 and '24.

Eh...I'm not convinced there is a "build around" option. I suspect the options are: 1. Trade Ryan in the offseason 2. Trade Ryan right before that August 1, 2026 trade deadline. Oh...and you can replace the name "Ryan" with any other non-Buxton Twin that is scheduled to earn an arbitration-eligible salary in 2026. It just seems unlikely that any of the current core pieces will still be around when the Twins next try to build a contender. There is no realistic path to contention next year.

TK and Mele are 1 and 1b. Mele's task was tougher: only one division in an AL that was not yet watered down by expansion... and yet his winning percentage shines. Then perhaps Gardenhire as a very distant 3rd. Martin gets an honorable mention for boxing and drinking skills... usually displayed simultaneously.

I think the Twins tolerated decent at best defense from both Carew and Dozier because they could hit. Neither graded out well statistically... his last couple of years at 2B Carew was an absolute error machine (33 in one year!!), which was part of the reason he moved to 1B. Knoblauch was both an excellent fielder and hitter when young, but then his defense at 2B fell apart with the Yankees when he suddenly lost the ability to throw accurately. Prior to Knoblauch, Lombardozzi was a very solid defender... but he couldn't hit at all.

1. You can find a 2B that can hit. 2. You can find a 2B that is a good fielder. 3. You can find a 2B that is inexpensive. At best, long term, you will get two of the three listed above, because any 2B that can hit AND field well will become expensive in a few short years. The one thing we can be pretty confident about is that the Twins FO will choose option #3 for 2B, as well as several other positions on the diamond. Thus, the only way out of this dilemma is player development, be it Luke Keaschall or someone else.

Hm... Yes, I'll take Torii over the course of his career because of his durability. He had a long stretch of years in the 2000s where he was utterly reliable and consistent, even if he was never in MVP discussions. It also helped that he had plenty of good teammates to help carry the load, and the Twins almost always contended or won the Central in that era, even if they could never advance further. But peak Buxton is special, on the few years where we got peak Buxton. He's been a better defender and a vastly better base runner, even though Hunter was no slouch in either category. I think Buxton's also a better hitter at his peak, relative to the league. Torii never really had a year quite like Buxton's 2025. Buxton's teammates... well, other than a couple of years they have been a mixed bag at best. "Worth more" is somewhat subjective I guess, and has to be taken in the context of team results vs just individual stats. Yes, I kinda agree with you that I think Torii was worth more (so far), but I don't think its a slam dunk, and it isn't really Buxton's fault that this year's Twins team is very bad. Both of them are sitting behind Kirby for CF on the All Time Twins team anyway..

This is a good list, and yes, many of the names on it are not a surprise. The Twins have a long history of tolerating mediocre or worse gloves in players that could hit. The top 10 list does seem to penalize longevity though, as DEF is cumulative. Perhaps a "DEF/Games played" would be a better measure? I suspect by doing this the order would look quite a bit different, with really bad defenders with relatively short Twins careers such as Delmon Young and Josh Willingham leaping over long time players like Cuddyer and Jones.

It is hard to see a scenario where the Twins bring Arraez back unless his salary REALLY drops...but I'd kind of like to see it happen, even for just a year. The Twins are so...lifeless. Arraez played with joy but also a certain focused intensity in the batters box. He won't fill some of the obvious team needs (speed, defense) but at least he might bring some enthusiasm to a squad that sometimes seems to be emotionally dead.

2025 Split G GS PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB ROE BAbip tOPS+ sOPS+ RISP 52 67 52 17 9 2 0 2 11 0 1 13 15 .173 .328 .327 .655 17 1 0 0 2 0 0 .189 66 78 Kind of looks like it might be a little of both? He isn't getting a ton of opportunities with RISP... 67 PA's seems low for this far into the season. He's striking out at less than his normal rate (22%), and actually walking quite a bit more (19%). Perhaps he has been a more passive hitter in these situations? His contact in these situations has either been very bad, or very unlucky, as that BIBP of .189 is extraordinarily low for someone who typically hits the ball hard when he makes contact. Of course, 67 PA's is by definition a very small sample size. So that was 2025, his career numbers look much, much better (see below), with a much higher BABIP. Maybe we can hope 2025 is a fluke? I Split G GS PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB ROE BAbip tOPS+ RISP 149 210 171 60 45 10 1 11 71 2 1 26 58 .263 .386 .526 .912 90 4 10 0 3 2 2 .324 115

Never. Not once. Not a game in the minors, not a game in college. Probably not in high school either. Yet it is stated daily here on TD that Wallner should move to first base because "Tall" and "Slow". It's not that easy a move after a lifetime in the OF. If you think Julien looks rough at 1B (and he does) after many years of playing infield, imagine what Wallner is going to look like when he suddenly is moved 90 feet from the batter.. His reaction times off a batted ball aren't great as it is...it could be brutal at 1B. If Wallner can't learn to take better routes and get a better jump in RF (and these are somewhat learnable skills) he's likely gonna have to make it as a DH. That isn't the end of the world... it's not like the Twins have that spot locked down by anyone else long term.

24th in runs scored this year. 20th in ERA. And of course both of those numbers are worse than they appear after trading away a large hunk of the roster last month. We also know the fielding is bad. And the base running.. I guess we can hang hope on prospects for next year, but that would require a lot of Kool-Aid... ..mixed with vodka.

I usually hear 1000 at bats, but if 1500 is the new standard Wallner isn't even half way to 1500 yet. He should mostly DH by '26 or '27, but that's fine as nobody is blocking him there. It might be with the Twins, or he may be traded because it is pretty clear that no current player except Buxton is guaranteed to be here by this time next year. Fedko... well, he's another older prospect that has sometimes performed well in the minors. I look at his development path and kinda see similarities to Mark Contreras. Much like Contreras he's been a slow riser. Finally mastering AA at age 25 doesn't inspire great confidence. Like Contreras he has some speed and power, and could perhaps be an emergency CF and 4th outfielder? Contreras of course didn't last long with the Twins, and perhaps wasn't quite as good a hitter.... so Fedko is likely worth a look in MLB at some point next year, or maybe even in September if spots open up, but I think there are better OF prospects in the system who should be ready by '27 if not sooner.

I'm just thankful there is a valid debate, with multiple viable candidates. One or more of the players on this list probably won't pan out due to injuries, stalled progression, etc, but on a year where many hopes have been dashed at least we can look forward to... 2028?

Maybe... if the Twins are content to have Tait be a DH/1B initially and not worry about developing his catching skills. That would be his fastest path to MLB. Based on scouting reports his bat is way ahead of his catching. Now if Tait's bat is truly elite the Twins could decide to move him off catcher, where injuries are common, frequent days off are needed, and players wear down at a relatively young age. Bryce Harper was a catcher when he was drafted but the Nats moved him off that immediately. I'd say that worked out ok...