bunsen82

This season is a success in the managements eyes, and us for fans should be pretty happy as well. They were able to put out a decent product and we see signs of younger talent that will be key cogs for this team in the next couple of years. This has been a transition year all along. This all comes down to expectations. Many have had their expectations go sky high on this season, and from my viewpoint they are a slightly above .500 team as currently constructed. The managements focus all along has been LONG-TERM success throughout the organization. It means they will look for this year and do as much as they can, but ultimately their horizon is much longer than tomorrow, July or Sept. It has been stated many times though if you get to the playoffs you have a chance. That is true no matter how small the chance is you still have a chance. But if you want to win it all you need multiple chances, so I would rather have a team that can get to the playoffs the next 6 out of 8 years. With multiple shots you have a better chance at the ultimate payoff of a WS.

This hits the nail on the head. The front office is getting exactly what it wanted out of this year, a team overachieving, but a team that doesn't logistically have a chance to compete for a championship unless you do a lot of tinkering at the trade deadline. Now they will have some ammo. There may be a bit of a 40 man crunch so we can use some prospects for trade bait that we would likely lose, but honestly I don't think it will be as tough as what the community has thought. We will most likely outright Sano, Sanchez is done. Duffy is an unrestricted free agent. Most likely we will not have Correa and Urshela will be a decision we will have to make on his arbitration, although as of now he is likely worth the contract. We also have a couple more we can cut with minimal impact such as Dobnak, Bundy, Archer and then you have the prospects that you can move off the 40 man that you no longer want to protect due to injury or poor performance. There is a lot of moving parts for this team and lots of options how they want to construct next years team and 40 man.

My deep sleeper picks to get to the big show that were not even on the top 50 prospects list are the following: 1 Headricks 2. Isola 3. Mooney Headricks is dominating high A ball, the real test will be AA but he should be able to pass that level as well. Isola is already at AA, the only concern I have is that he is one that may wear down as the season goes down just like he did last year. He maybe an ideal backup catcher. The third is Mooney, he was drafted late due to an injury and lost a season with Covid. He is just a pitcher that knows how to pitch. Hendricks has gotten more notoriety this year, but Mooney has even out pitched him this year. All 3 came from the 2019 draft, in rounds 9, 29 and 12 respectively.

Whoever we take will likely be under slot unless it is someone they really really like. This will be the type of draft where we will try to create an extra high pick through money. Similar to what we did with Enlow. It is smart, so far with Enlow it hasn't paid off primarily due to injuries.

One that is starting to pop a bit is Holland. Another double and triple last night. Has an OPS over .900 for May with what I understand is pretty good defense.

Here is what I am seeing after 2 months Prospects that look like major league talent 1. Canterino (has the most talent of this class, just needs to stay healthy) 2. Steer (continues to do well) 3. Varland (talent has stepped up at AA, but still showing strong stuff) 4. Headrick (his talent is really starting to pop - is having similar stats to Varland from last year in high A) 5. Isola (looks like at minimum a back up catcher) Need improvement but have talent for MLB 6. Julien (elite eye at the plate) 7. Wallner (legit mlb power) Most likely Minor leaguers but could flash 7. Laweryson (has flashed) 8. Gipson Long 9. Mooney (one with the most likely chance to significantly move up in my opinion from this group) 10. Prato 11. Holland (one I am still keeping my eye on, bat is improving has potential to be a utility player) 12. Gross 13. Gray 14. Cavaco (Looks lost based on his stats in low A ball) 15. Legumina

He may not be on a top 20 list, but he will definitely be on a top 40 list. The depth of the Twins organization is very very good. Now if he continues to do this in AA which I think he likely can, then he will easily be on the top 20 list. He is making High A ball batters look silly, I don't anticipate that to be falling off by going up a level, and AA ball is generally the make of break level whether you have the potential or not to play at the big leagues.

There are about 7-8 arms from that class that have the potential to possibly make it to the big leagues. 3 years after a draft that is pretty damn impressive. Canterino is the highest level arm, followed by Varland. Lawyerson, Gipson Long, Headrick Legumina, Gross and Mooney are all having various levels of success. As of this point Cavaco is not finding his bat. There were 3 big swings on players with high upside to improve their plate discipline and hit tool, Cavaco Holland and Julien. Julien appears to be a success and Holland is quietly improving. At high A ball for the last month he has an OPS in the 800's. Holland has as much upside as Cavaco so if he somehow he continues to improve that might negate Cavaco most likely busting out. Steer looks like the stud bat of this class, with Wallner who looks pretty good but defensively not really a position, and then Gray Prato and Julien all doing fairly well this year. Alex Isola in the 29th round could be a very nice find.

In the video he states he gained 3 mph this year, along with developing a third pitch.

Headrick topped out at 91 mph out of college. I don’t see specifics but I would guess he is working in the low to mid 90’s now. Where it gets interesting his current stats. He has over 13 k/9, and also over 7k/bb. That means his stuff is very potent while having excellent control. He has a 6’6” frame, so that low 90,s to mid 90’s pitch is getting pitched closer to the plate and coming from a higher angle allowing for more deception and missed bats. This is another potential arm from that 2019 class. It appears the twins draft strategies are starting to pay dividends.

Isola has a chance to make it to the big leagues, and he is another one from that 2019 draft class. The 2019 and 2021 draft classes are looking very very strong.

Did this trade exclude us from signing Rogers next year? Has the regime paid for any legitimate relief pitcher in the last 5 years, I have only seen scrap heap additions. They have no plans to sign Rogers in the offseason is my guess. They don't spend their money on pitching period. They will use contracts on position players and are trying to draft to develop a pipeline for the pitchers. They have had to supplement this with some trades. This is my observation of the last couple years.

This all comes down to the time horizon. We lost a closer for 1 year. He was likely gone after this year anyway. I had this discussion with my uncle the other day discussing Correa and this years prospects. I would be thrilled if the Twins keep Correa all year and the twins are doing well, and then they use some lower level prospects to possibly get a closer more bullpen help. Falvey and Levine are looking at have this team competitive not for 1 year stints, but a continuous level of competitiveness. That means being willing to trade a closer on the last year of his contract for another decent reliever and a starter that can give you 3 years of very good value. This trade will likely go down as one of the best trades for the Twins is my guess. I will also be drinking my coffee watching Twinsdaily lose its **** the day they trade Correa, because again he is a valuable asset. The odds he is traded is 75% is my guess. The only way he isn't is we are one of the top 1-2 teams in the A.L.

Value, Value, Value. That is the mantra of this front office. Paddack and Pagan have the same WAR that Rogers has had this year, with Rogers pitching extremely well. A mid rotation to a #2 starter is worth much more than a very good relief pitcher, and that is no knock on Rogers. Forget the fact that this is for 3 years of Paddack and 2 for Pagan for 1 of Rogers and that is nothing to say of the other minor leaguer we got in the deal. Paddack had no spot in San Diego after they traded for Manea and their plethora of starting pitching. With more refined coaching and developing a third pitch, we are seeing the results. Now if we continue to do well we will need to trade for a couple relievers to strengthen the bullpen.

I think your characterization of Julien isn't quiet accurate. He was the #88 prospect for fangraphs and the #177 for MLB. Essentially he was viewed as anywhere from a 3rd to 5th round draft pick. What happened is he dropped and dropped and then the Twins took a shot in the dark in the 18th round. What happened was he went bonkers in the college world series, don't remind him of the overthrow that cost Auburn a game. With saving some money in earlier rounds, Julien signed as essentially a 4th to 5th round draft pick. He has always had talent and a power bat, the question was his overall hit tool and what would be his defensive position. Now I think the odd thing is he was viewed as more of a plodder- which has been the exact opposite. The twins bulked up on middle infield and corner infield slots in the 2019 draft - for some reason I have made that draft a key point of interest for myself. Everyone seemed to be so upset with the draft, yet when you really started to dig into it you realized they picked up a lot of kids with a lot of talent. Currently there is something like 20 players from that draft still in the minors and many of them in the top 40 prospect lists. I will continue to watch and see how many make it to the big leagues.

I only listened and watched updated on espn. The version of Paddack we saw last night shows why you always trade a reliever straight up for SP if they are of decent ability. You are getting 6 innings of production vs 3 per a week, and it is much more difficult to pitch 5-6 consecutive innings than 1 at a time. Paddack and Pagan's WAR is the exact same as Rogers, with really only 1 really good start from Paddack. Paddack in 3 starts is starting to look like a really solid addition. If we can get 5-6 innings with a pitcher with 3-4 pitches that can throw up to 94-95 mph, that is a huge upside. As much as I love Rogers, this looks like a trade that will turn out very favorably for the Twins. Even still I think it was a good trade for the Padres. This was a trade good for both teams primarily due to each teams roster construction and the twins ability to improve Paddack, due to better pitch mix and likely facing easier hitters.

Buxton is one of the top 5 talents in the game, when he is available. Remaining healthy continues to be the major issue with Buxton. This ferrari continues to need regular maintenance and rest to maintain its optimal performance. We will continue to watch for any slaps on the ground or yells in frustration on the next awkward slide, slamming into the wall, diving to catch a ball or just running. Even Buxton is showing frustration with his injury history. That aside, if Buxton continues to be healthy, and Correa starts to turn the corner which I think he is, the top 3 of Buxton, Arreaz and Correa is going to cause a lot of damage this year. With OBP of near 400 from those 3 players is going to be something to watch. They will set the table for Polanco and whoever else decides to step up and make contact and clear the bases for this team. The bats will continue to warm up especially with those 3 continuing to put pitchers in difficult spots.

I could see Rogers affecting 1 game, maybe 2 but Duffy is likely still given opportunities to blow a game, and we would still have the same outcome.

Eh, I am not going to let some early season slow bats affect what I am seeing. What I do see is that we have some decent Starting pitching. If Paddack can continue to improve and give us this type of performance, we win the trade by a large margin. You get a #3 type pitcher for 1 year of a reliever, you take it every day of the week. Buxton is a game changer, we need him back. As to the rest of the team, I will give Correa a pass. When the team is constructed for a long ball game, and it is cold and windy, you won't do well generally. As the temps warm up I do expect the bats to get better. Urshela looks decent and honestly Sanchez is better than I expected. I am still looking at a slightly less than .500 team. But I didn't come into this season with lofty goals.

Isolated a few batters may cool off, but as a whole the minor league system depth but also top level prospects are doing very well. Whatever you may think Falvine and Levine are doing at the mlb level what they have done to improve our pipeline is a massive improvement. My observation has been they will make moves that can improve the team at the MLB level they will, and they aren’t afraid to make trades but for now it is only for the long play or the future. That includes the Correa signing especially if they trade him at the deadline which is my baseline. Correa has time but needs to start playing better defense and his bat needs to wake up for this to come to fruition. All said it was fun night of baseball in the minor league system.

I think the PTBNL will be a much lower prospect than what was being discussed above. If we can get any of those players it will be a major win for the twins affectively in my mind. Paddack has a lot more value than most realize and similar to what the twins did in effectively salary dumping Donaldson, the Padres were willing to do it to get under the salary cap threshold. Otherwise I don't think they would do it. Their maneuvers just like what we did with the trades that gave us the cap relief to sign Correa, greatly helped this year performance and excitement, but just like us there is no long term value in the 2 trades the Padres did for Manea and Rogers. It helps them win now, unless they want to flip them at the deadline. Paddack on the other hand is on long term contract and has much more potential value as starter than even Rogers as a closer. We used cash to essentially to buy Paddack, and then added in a little extra to get them under the salary line. That extra will be what determines the PTBNL, The fact is we just don't know how much money that was. My guess is it is closer to the 1.5 million range as suggested in other posts.

There is not much to be concerned about this early in the season. My guess is Duffy won't be given the next chance. Honestly I bet they will try Pagan, see how he does if not pass it on to Alcala or Duran. Duffy just doesn't quite have it going right now. Every single hit seemed to be hit hard. Its 1 game. Honestly I don't expect us to contend, mainly 500 ball but I do want to see better situational hitting. We have to be able to get more hits. It may be early in the season but we have a lot of swing and miss players out there right now.

As an aside Palacios if he makes it to the big leagues is a very interesting case for the Twins, You trade him for Odorizzi and then he struggles in the Rays system he comes back to the twins and it is as if he never left and he really played well last year. If Correa gets injured or traded this year, Palacios will likely be the fill in unless we are willing to pass on the mantle to Lewis.

Ashbury, this has been the storyline since he was drafted. A five tool player that had played 3rd base but that the Twins would try at SS. Most pundits still thought he was a 3rd base candidate. The other thing is go look at him now, he is really starting to fill out. If you can find an elite player at 3rd for the 13th pick you do it. However, the twins were taking a chance on him, he has a really low floor if his hit tool doesn't come around. Your other choice for SS at the time was Bryson Stott - who is now up for the Phillies as a 3rd baseman. Now Cavaco can still be a SS but even on his team you now have Noah Miller at shortstop. I do think there will always be someone a little better than Cavaco for defense at SS. Stott is 3 years olders and would have Miranda competing him with him for the next couple years if he was with the twins. Now lets see where he it becomes interesting even with a lost year. He is known for being a professional. He works extremely hard and his body shows it. He had some rough spots last year but really improved. This year he has come in and to me looks like a different player from where he was before. His swing is much better, and he still has all the athleticism- his ceiling is ultimately higher than a player like Stott even though the odds he reaches it is much less, but based on what I have seen and read about him this year makes him a very intriguing player down the road. SS is still going to be where we will continue to hope to develop. You hope Lewis can be the man, and then we are building up the depth. You have Lewis, Palacios (probably the most ready player) in AAA, You have Martin in AA with not much else, Javier and Holland at High A and then Miller in A ball. Holland unless the hit tool suddenly improves drastically is not likely going to be able to progress. Good defense and speed will only get you so far.

This is a deal you make every day of the week. However that doesn't make it feel any better. Whether he was traded now or in July we were going to trade Rogers. You don't let him go for no value. So what were we able to get. A pitcher who has raw talent can throw 95mph fastball and has a good change up. Essentially he has been a two pitch starter. He either has given up to easily on third pitch or hasn't been able to find a third pitch to incorporate. The other issue is his fastball has become very flat and has been hitting right down the middle a significant amount of time and getting hammered. He has had some poor defense which you would assume would lower the numbers from last year. It appears he can give the fastball more life in the first couple innings then begins to tire out as the game goes on. So the options are he becomes an effective 2 to 3 inning long relief or an opener start - or he develops a little more stamina and ideally a third pitch possibly a cutter. This isn't the reclamation projects of before, this is some slight tweaks, at the very least he should be a strong addition to the bullpen for short stints. Most likely with better defense and a few tweaks and actually working with analytics which the Padres are way behind on, we should be able to find a very capable #3 pitcher. Those don't grow on trees, and we gave up at most 60 innings of Rogers for that chance. The risk is the arm blows out for the second time. You also picked up a reliever in Pagan. Honestly he did really well until mid August then blew up. He can be an effective arm in our bullpen, but again he can get blown up on hard hit balls. He can fill in for Rogers but can't replace rogers. It will be interesting to see which relievers take on the high leverage situations. We were going to need to figure this out next year so why not do this a year early. I have stated it before, management is playing for 2023 - but they have given us enough to be excited for in this year to keep us interested. They did very well in that aspect, continuing the rebuild and retooling at the same time and not fully giving up on the season. We need to be prepared for Correa and and potentially some of our 1 year gambles on pitching to be traded at the deadline unless we have a 2019 situation all over again. We will just have to wait and see how this plays out.