bunsen82

I ultimately think Gratoral goes to the Red Sox, I think he is still highly rated by the Red Sox, however as long as a deal gets done between the Red Sox and Dodgers even if it doesn't include us, I think we still get Maeda. The irony of that is we might actual get a better deal for the Twins as we will be trading from a surplus, likely our bats for a pitcher, rather than one of our top 3 or 4 current pitching prospects. The Dodgers currently do not have a starting pitcher spot for Maeda and view him as a surplus if they get Price. They still need to trade Maeda then. I still think the Twins value Maeda more than any other team and are interested in trading for him, and now our hitting prospects now come into play as the Dodgers are loaded on the pitching side. My guess is this all resolved by Tuesday. We will see.

Graterols upside is tempting, possible #1 starter, possible elite closer. We will like get 4 very good years of Maeda of #2 pitching quality. The issue is Graterol has just as much chance at flaming out. If his velocity decreases there is not much left to work with. The trade as previously constructed was fair. Its starts getting a little overdone if we have to add in another top 20 prospect. Although ultimately if its just a thrown in, no harm no foul. My gut feel this was all to put more pressure on the Red Sox to make a decision.

My guess is Duran is rated higher than Graterol in the Twins organization. If we are sending someone else it would be Thorpe if they want a starter now, with another prospect like Nick Gordon or another pitcher like Blake Enlow is my opinion.

Josh Donaldson was a 6.1 WAR last year, with minimal protection behind him. He had the likes of Nick Markakis and Brian McCann hitting behind him. If you say he has slight regression this year, and he has a 5 War. That 1st year he was worth 40 million. He will only need 6.5 War to make the contract worth it although his worth will be slightly front loaded. Here is my guess on WAR value 2020 - 5.8 2021 - 4.5 2022 - 3.9 2023 - 3.2 2024 - 2.5 That is 19.9 WAR. Donaldson's issue I believe will be staying healthy. If he can stay healthy he will put up the numbers. In my simulation he would be worth $160 million. And by the way the last years value would be $20 million. As long as he has gradual regression the contract will be success. If he is continually injured he will fall off a cliff. The advantages are he will be playing on a real field not turf, we can load manage him, we can give days off at DH or just rest days. To me the risk is minimal with Donaldson.

My stance is this, the advantage the Twins have now is they don't have to do anything. They can stand pat. However, I will laud management that they always do look at ways to improve the team. If an opportunity arose for a player they deem to be a top 10 pitcher, whether that has been their history or the analytics say the pitcher can be a top 10 pitcher, they can do that trade. Or they can wait until the deadline to see what is available.

One other note, I can only imagine that Donaldson will likely see better pitches this year or will have better batters behind him that what he saw last year. From a couple lineups I saw it appears he was batting cleanup with either Brian Mccann or Nick Markakis following him in the 5 spot. He will have a much better hitter than either of those two hitting behind him in the twins lineup.

We are paying 21 million a year for an elite 3rd baseman who can hopefully give us a 5 war for each of those two years. If he does that, he has already earned the contract. I think he has the possibility of being a 3rd baseman all 4 years, playing on a regular field rather than the turf in Toronto. The other thing is the twins are likely to use load management with him. We have a great utility player in Gonzalez for this year. I would anticipate 125 to 130 games at 3rd, 10 to 15 DH days and the rest as days off. It should keep him fresher and healthier throughout the year. This type of load management could possibly get him through the entire contract at 3rd base similar to Adrian Beltre. If we can get anywhere close to the WAR production that Beltre had from his 34 to age 38 seasons this contract will be a steal. The question always is, when will father time begin to step in. For Beltre it was age 38, but he still posted a 3 war in year 38 and 1 war at 39.

The only thing the Twins have to consider is if Berrios would want to stay with the Twins long term. He could end up being a trade piece for another pitcher in the next year or two.

Bailey will be better than Perez. The version of Bailey prior to the last two months is much better than Perez was from May to September. The real improvement comes from can the splitter be a true pitch and is it possible Wes Johnson can gain a couple miles per an hour out of his fastball and make that a plus pitch. My gut feel is Bailey will be viewed as the best pitching signing at the end of the year. Ultimately though we will be looking for two more pitchers at minimum next year in free agency.

Unlike some I am not disappointed Yamaguchi didn't sign here. He would likely be an individual that would do well in April and early innings, but once batters became familiar and analytics delved in could be very hittable just like Kikuchi last year. He is very similar to Kikuchi but slightly different pitches, I believe Yamaguchi's best pitch is a splitter. Look at it this way, the Twins felt he was worth 3 million but Yamaguchi's camp wanted 4 million. The Twins were also interested in another pitcher who has similar stuff who the Twins had success with last year in Sergio Romo (both top out at 90 mph fastball), and they know his stuff works in MLB is Sergio Romo. I believe the Twins then said, we would rather put a little extra to get Sergio Romo instead, who I might add the Twins were not linked to until recently. I think this was an either/or situation, not that we would sign both. I think the Twins will pursue one more higher end RP dependent on if we sign a high end pitcher or Donaldson.

Okay these 2 trades are going to paired together whether you want to look at them separate or not. The initial trade by itself was a good trade for the Twins, you took a low A ball pitcher 19 years old and traded for a mid tier starter. You do that any day of the week. Then we get Littell back in the second trade with the Yankees who was rated much higher than Ynoa and Enns who had the possibility of being a back of the rotation starter. Ynoa got to AA last year, when the braves bullpen hit the skids. They brought up Ynoa for few innings of which he had an ERA of 18.00 (extreme small sample) while they tried to patch it back together. Ynoa is still a long ways off, and command is his issue not the raw stuff. Even with Littell being farther along, if you are going to project the two arms, Littell is going to be the more projectable arm. I also see the potential of having a Kintzler career or possibly slightly higher. Ynoa has the higher ceiling and if he hits has the ceiling of a closer. The odds of that happening, are higher than what they were back in 2017 but I would still say is only a 33% chance or less, he had a 5.3 ERA in both AA and AAA last year. Also he would have been a rule 5 so would have had to have been added to the 40 man this year. Me personally I don't think we have room for him. And if we didn't have Littell we would be looking for another RP on the FA Market.

I think Twins management were hoping the market would be similar to the last couple years and they could get not only an elite starting pitcher, but also at a reasonable contract. That is what has worked the last couple of years, but not this year so far. The twins still have some levers they can pull, either sign Donaldson or as stated pick a pitcher they think they can rehabilitate. You also have the trade market and the ability to take on a bloated contract. Here are some options still on FA market Josh Donaldson Nick Castellanos Ryu Marcell Ozuna Dallas Keuchel Edwin Encarnacion Will Harris Teheran Daniel Hudson Avisail Garcia Dellin Bettances Rich Hill Pedro Strop There are some Outfielders, SP, RP (also a few not mentioned in the list), Donaldson who we are on but also a bit of a pipe dream. The rest can be worked in, either through a trade to create an opening or building up our pitching through the bullpen and one more decent starter. We are starting to get back into reasonable contract territory, shown by the bumgarner signing. Ryu likely prefers the west coast, but I think the twins could lure with a significant contract bump over other competitors. That could be a potential win for an elite pitcher , health though a major question. There is still plenty of good players still available and on the trade market that we can set this team up for success with what we already have and what is in the minors. I am honestly glad we don't have any of the contracts other than Bumgarner right now, because we wouldn't be able to compete with those contracts strangling us in future years.

At this point Betances, would be a big arm (health questionable) at a relatively reasonable price. Value wise, the twins have secured two of the more reasonable deals in Odorizzi and Pineda. Pineda 2 for 20 million 2019 ERA 4.01 pitched much better to end year Gausman 1 for 9 million 2019 ERA 5.72 granted for crap team, could show some improvement but no where near Pineda. Value for pitchers will come down in a month, but right now a lot more teams have money to spend. Best plan moving forward, trade for starters and/or trade for solid position players while taking on salary. Build up the bull pen, and Bettances is the best arm to do that with.

At this point I say sit back and wait. We got done the 2 deals that needed to be done, in Pineda and Odorizzi. I honestly thought the Odorizzi deal was a slight overpay for a year, but the way this free agency is going, that is looking like a very good contract. The Pineda deal just befuddles me. He should have gotten much more than 2 for 20. I think really the way this market is going 2 for 27.5 (essentially 2.5 off for the suspension). The market could continue to be crazy which I think it will be for the top starters. I think we will be happy that we were able to get Odorizzi and Pineda back by the end of the week. Cole will go for crazy money, I think Bumgarner will go close to 96 million and Ryu at 84 for 4. If there is a deal I would do its Ryu but that is a lot of money for a slightly unreliable arm. I think once we get to the middle tier there will be value again. Right now I just don't think is ripe to pick off a top line starter. An opportunity will come, likely through trade sometime this year (assuming we are still in contention) then we can use some assets to get the arm we want. I would get incremental value on free agent signings with one more SP and 2 more RP. I would do an infielder, but Falvey is playing coy and acting like we will fill that from within. We will see.

I disagree. You have to look at was achievable. In my mind Bumgarner is likely the best pitcher left that the twins can get to sign a contract with in my mind. My original hope was Wheeler, but in my mind he was overpaid for his performance. I have a feeling Bumgarner will actually sign a reasonable contract. I don't think his value is near what wheeler received, more teams will think they can fix wheeler with less mileage to be a #1 than Bumgarner. I think Madison still has some left in the tank and I also think Wes could potentially add a couple miles per an hour to his fastball making him more lethal than he was last year even with the park benefits. My current guess is 4 for 80 million or 5 for 94 million. Madison true value will show up in the postseason assuming we can get back there. He has more experience and composure than any other pitcher out there right now and could be a true stabilizing force in the pitching department for the twins. He will either be pegged as our #1 or #2 essentially dropping everyone in the order. I hope we can get this deal done, and add in a relief pitcher or two and either a 1st baseman or 3rd baseman. Those are the only holes we currently have.

Pineda was a very good pitcher from July until his suspension. Value wise, if he can pitch near that level, you cannot find anyone better than that on the market, especially at 10 million year. He could easily slot anywhere as #2 to #4 pitcher. Good value overall.

I said back on November 15th I though the twins would be a surprise suitor for Moustakas and I still think that is on the table. More than anything it shows they are willing to move Sano to 1st and have a replacement at 3rd. Either Donaldson or Moustakas would be a big improvement in my mind. For the cheaper contract and just slightly less top performance but more dependability I would pick Moose over Donaldson, but that is just me.

In the current economic scenario, Odorizzo should take the qualifying offer and run. As long as he has a decent year next year, he should be able at the minimum to get a 2 year 20 million contract or 3 year 30 million contract next year when he has full leverage. Players who have not taken the qualifying offers have been the ones hurt, and often getting less for a single year of service than what they would have received for the qualifying offer, hoping for a bigger day and often putting up pedestrian numbers when they come back mid season because they didnt go to spring training. He should bet on himself and see what happens, either way he is $17.5 million richer than he was yesterday.

Honestly this is what I am looking at. Cole 30 mil (7 years 210 million) Odorizzo 15 mil (3 year 45 million ) Pineda 10 mil (2 year 22 million- 10 mil 2020 12 mil 2021) Romo 3 mil (1 year with 1 year option total potentional 6 million) For Reliever get one more solid arm at 6-8 million. That is 66 million. That brings total payroll to around $120. That allows 15 to 20 million to figure out 1st base and any other extensions.

The only thing I will say about Perez is I think his cutter is more suited and lethal in cooler temperatures. My Theory is that is why he did so well in April and May. Essentially in warmer temps the ball is moving too much. I am very curious to see how he does in his next outing which should be in the 70's.

Danchat, the 40 man crunch isn't this year, its after this season when we have potentially 11 players that are going to be rule 5 eligible or need to be added.

If you could get a decent reliever for Cave it is another spot open on the 40 man. I would be all on board if we could find someone to take that deal on.

I think the twins will look at any trade open to them. Here is what I do know, they will not overpay, they will do deals that are beneficial to the overall organization, if there is a truce ace available at a reasonable cost they will do it. However, this year, it just isn't. I loved the deal for Sergio, gives us another reliable reliever, flips a bat that we would have struggled to keep or lost him or someone else to rule 5 eligibility, and was able to get a pitcher that is now one of our top 10 pitching prospects, plus a lotto ticket. Yes we gave up Diaz but we have other bats above him, it was a good deal for both teams. Ultimately based on the june article of the 40 man crunch for next year, I think we will see another trade or two, just to flip assets that we will no longer have control of at the end of this year. Ultimately most should be happy. This is the start of a window for us, there is no reason to throw away assets unless you are fairly certain you can win it all. This year, I am not sure even with an ace and another elite closer you can beat the astros if they also trade for players. You also still have the Yankees and and Dodgers. Even if we got those 2 players I would put the odds of the twins winning the title at 15%, in the current form I think the twins are maybe 5-7% chance of winning it all and with some additional relievers, pushing 10%. There is no reason to blow our wad this year for minimally moving the needle. In the next year or two, will be the years to strike is my guess, plus our prospects will be closer to mlb ready and ultimately more valuable if they can keep up their performances.

I will admit this is still a tough topic from me, but I was one of the few from the start that said little to nothing would occur from this. This occurred for two reasons, one it was very clear there was exaggeration in the initial claim, and rightly or wrongly waiting 2+ years to file a claim is going to significantly decrease, corroborating evidence and a more accurate memory or portrayal of the incident. The method of releasing the info also did not help matters. It appeared away to shame multiple individuals. Not a way to become part of the movement. I still question the motive slightly why it was done in the matter it was done but that is neither here nor there. I hope they both can move on from this incident and Sano can realize how careful he needs to be in the future with interactions. You cannot leave anything up for interpretation, and sadly I think that is what happened here.

My personal preference is Cobb this year. I think you will get similar production, he is a tad younger and will cost about half as much. I would definitely be okay with getting Darvish. I think he will have very good numbers in Target field. He also has a higher ceiling and has the possibility of being a low end #1 for 2-3 years. Ultimately if you feel the window for the twins opens in 2019 through 2021, and you can get a #1 pitcher for a reasonable amount you do it. Don't base anything off the world series. It is very clear he either wasn't able to grip the ball as well or had an injury. Add on top you have Houston saying he may have been tipping pitches. The tipping can be easily corrected. As to the world series the only concern would be whether he gets the yips in pressure situations, but with the work he did in the NLCS that eases the concerns for me. Either way I hope we get one of Cobb or Darvish, man has that offseason been glacially slow.