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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    I'm really not bullish on Rodriguez. With poor contact rates despite not chasing balls out of the zone, it suggests his plate approach is similar to Julien's, with a similar big hole in the swing MLB pitchers will be able to exploit. Rodriguez does have more game power than Julien so that insulates him a bit, but his BB rate is even more unsustainable against pitchers who can hit their spots. I'd like to see him get at least 200 PA against AAA pitching to see how he fares in BB/K rates. Fans of Julien consistently point to his production in 2023 as a baseline for him with the argument 2024 was just a sophomore slump from which he's going to rebound. Often ignored is the expected stats being much lower than actual in 2023. .263/.381/.459 OPS .839 wRC+ 135 vs. expected .233/.355/.427 OPS .782 wRC+ 115ish In 2024, Julien earned his production. Pitchers took full advantage of the hole in Julien's swing by jamming him inside with the infrequent fastballs they did throw, and they fed Julien more breaking pitches he's not as adept with handling. Julien's frustration was obvious, and he grew more aggressive with pitches those inside edge pitches he'd laid off in 2023, but he can't drive them so the swings turned into soft outs and K's. Trevor Larnach was also mentioned above. The comparison is apt here, too. Larnach rarely chased pitches out of the zone, but he also rarely swung at pitches in the zone always looking for that fat fastball to crush. Larnach's contact rates are better than Julien's, though so when Larnach got more aggressive, his K rate dropped and more balls wound up dropping in for hits. Living off the mistake fastball can work in the minors with excellent plate discipline, but one only has to look at Aaron Sabato to see what a fine line that strategy really is. If the batters skills aren't elite or the opposing pitcher knows how to place a pitch or attack a players weakness, waiting for the meatball will end with failure. It's worth noting that I'm pretty sure both Larnach and Julien have better contact rates than Rodriguez. There's simply no margin for error with Rodriguez. I suspect MLB pitchers will eat him alive until he reworks his swing (and reworking his swing may sap his power) which is why I'd trade him or a package for a solid center fielder with a few years of team control if I could.
  2. bean5302
    Yes. The Twins' front office's wisdom should be far greater than casual fans posting comments on an internet site.
  3. bean5302
    I've addressed this before. There is absolutely no similarity between SD and KC's front office situation with Rooker and the Twins'. After drafting and developing him for 5 years in their system the team who should have known Rooker inside and out thought he was trash. The Twins' actions ruined Rooker's reputation so it's natural other teams would view Rooker with a ton of skepticism.
  4. bean5302
    Rooker owned a wRC+ 97 with the Twins in his SSS of just 234 PA, and apart from his sporadic April plate appearances in 2021, he was above average at the plate, and his xwOBA in 2021 was far higher than actual (xwOBA .341 in 2021, which translates to a wRC+ 130ish). Rooker was "chasing sliders" like every other hitter in baseball, and that's why pitchers throw sliders. That said, Rooker was +1.6 vs. Sliders in 2020 and +0.2 vs. sliders in 2021 according to Fangraphs. Like most arguments against Rooker, it doesn't hold up to scrutiny. For whatever reason, the bizarre inability to accept Falvey's front office (or the casual fans here) made a colossal error in Rooker's case is baffling to me.
  5. bean5302
    Honestly, if I were Royce Lewis, I'd probably be hoping for a trade at this point. He wants to play SS, but Correa is now entrenched with Lewis pushed further down the depth chart. The Twins coaches can't seem to help Lewis improve, and he's being shifted around the diamond in favor of players with lower ceilings. Lewis has fair reason to be angry in my opinion. Then again, Falvey's front office has a history of alienating their top young players (Berrios, Buxton). Plouffe has been openly critical of the Twins' coaches and how the team handled Royce Lewis last year, and I agree with him.
  6. bean5302
    I'm looking forward to seeing how Keaschall performs in AA/AAA next year. Not sure where the Twins will start him off since he's kind of in that mid range of plate appearances at AA. A 1/2 season or so overall. His bat is good, but it's not like it was truly elite there, even relative to other top prospects. If we look at wRC+, Keaschall's 138 ranks: 46th in AA overall 36th under age 25 (the top prospects) 22nd under age 23 (the elite prospects) 13th under age 22 (the elite high school prospects or his direct his peers) Keaschall's power is the question mark. He simply didn't have much in the way of XBH, and while he's talking about adding bulk under the idea it will make him better, he's only 5lbs lighter than 65+ grade power Byron Buxton. If he wants power, he should adjust his swing mechanics. Every pound Keaschall packs on at this point begins to push him off further off 2B where it's uncommon to see a good defender at 200+lbs. Pushing himself to positions typically reliant on ISO like 1B/3B/LF will mean his bat has to play up even more. Keaschall doens't really have the arm for RF, and doesn't have the speed for CF. Maybe a better version of Jose Miranda as Keaschall's projectable ceiling at this point?
  7. bean5302
    I don't see much reason the Twins would covet Tena. Minnesota doesn't need another left handed hitter, and his hitting at the MLB level hasn't been impressive, though he's obviously not yet in his prime. Cherry picking his time with Washington, and only his time at the MLB level presents a better picture of his performance than what he's demonstrated as a whole, and it conveniently excludes his awful performance at the Nationals' AAA club. Overall last year Tena hit .267/.298/.354 OPS .652 wRC+ 83 in 168 PA, though there is reason to suspect his bat has a fair amount of ceiling left based on his age and his career performances at AAA. Tena's "sure glove" isn't reflected in his poor error rate that tanked his overall metrics at the only position he had slightly significant playing time which was 3B with just 299 innings last year. Tena's -3.3 ErrR depressed his stats across the board returning -5 OAA, -3 DRS, and -13.8 UZR/150 at third. His range metric wasn't good either, leading to a rough performance at SS in a teeny tiny sample size. Tena's a work in progress and there is some ceiling there, but there's nothing more to like about him than the Twins already have in Brooks Lee, who is a switch hitter (in name anyway).
  8. bean5302
    The Twins' bullpen was solid last year. We saw a repeat of 2022 where Baldelli wouldn't give his starters more than 4-5 innings, then went to an already worn down bullpen that needed to be near perfect since the offense couldn't plate runs. The Twins were the 5th best in all of baseball with only 5 blown saves in August/September despite being asked to pitch the 4th most innings. The problem was the rotation and hitting, not the bullpen, though Falvey's failure to acquire the lefty the Twins needed so badly with Funderburk and Thielbar's devastatingly poor performances shoulders some blame, too. The Twins are in a payroll crunch which is nearing crisis levels. Depth is not something the team can afford anywhere, to be honest. Any major injuries in spring training might tank the season before it even begins.
  9. bean5302
    Yeah, it is interesting how Nathan got only 4.3% of the BWAA vote dropping off immediately when Wagner, who has less than a 2 bWAR advantage over Nathan got 51.0% that year. Relievers have a really tough row to hoe.
  10. bean5302
    Yeah, I get it. It gets super complex to really evaluate historical trades. WAR is a component, as is compensation rates, and then what about net present value? Is trading a 2.0 WAR asset and seeing no value for 5 years, when the player you acquire produces 2.0 WAR an equal exchange? How do you quantify the value of time where you get nothing? Is it fair to use a static scale on that or to apply a curved scale based on team needs or projections? What about trades that lead to trades which lead to further trades? Liriano led to Escobar which led to Alcala like a huge tree of transactions. You can literally spend hours and hours trying to figure out a formula, and no matter which formula you choose, it will be flawed. I think the baseline should probably look at team controlled years to current. Looking at production after team control ended is irrelevant (like whatever Ryan Pressly did after 2019 is irrelevant) , but regardless of where the player went, that was production the Twins forfeited. The Twins would still have control over Brent Rooker for 3 years.
  11. bean5302
    I don't know as I agree with the methodology here. Pretty convenient to write off the 7 WAR Rooker generated while he's still under team control and pretend Paddack and Pagan were decently valuable, lol. The Rooker trade was a disaster on par with the Bartlett + Garza trade for Delmon Young.
  12. bean5302
    I didn't believe in Dozier. Year after year I expected him to turn back into a pumpkin. Then, finally in 2017 I decided the track record was undeniable. Whoops. The thing which got to me about Dozier was fly ball distance. He had warning track + 5 foot power to right field. Heck of a career, though!
  13. bean5302
    Rivera got in because he was the best closer in MLB history by a country mile in terms of dominance for how long he played. He could have played for the Milwaukee Brewers and he would have been first ballot. Joe Nathan was just as good during his short peak, and I think the UCL cost him BWAA Cooperstown. Nathan still ranks #7 in JAWS, #10 in saves, #13 in fWAR. He's one of the greatest relievers in history.
  14. bean5302
    I'm surprised Kyle Farmer didn't get 7yrs and $182MM from the Rockies like Kris Bryant. Though ill advised, I think $4.5MM is rather smart for them, haha.
  15. bean5302
    Joe Nathan should have gotten in during the BWAA selection process. Joe Nathan was arguably the best closer in baseball during his peak. Every bit as good as Mariano Rivera. Don't believe me? 2004-2009 (6yrs) Rivera - 440.0 IP, 243 SV, 1.90 ERA, 2.56 FIP, 14.5 fWAR, 21.87 WPA Nathan - 418.2 IP, 246 SV, 1.87 ERA, 2.40 FIP, 14.2 fWAR, 24.00 WPA The UCL injury took Nathan out at the end of his prime a35 season lost, a36 season recovering still. Nathan would have racked up probably 435ish saves had the UCL not failed him, and Nathan didn't get his start in the bullpen until age 28.
  16. bean5302
    Soto is going to need a lot of work. While the article talks about a true 5 pitch mix, I'm not seeing it in the movement. Movement based classification is possibly labeling Soto's poorly thrown sliders as "cutters." Lots and lots of hype for Soto, who throws 95, and doesn't flirt with triple digits at all. Like saying Soto peaked at 98, close to striking range of Jhoan Duran's 105mph peak in 2023!!! I'm not sure all the hype helps readers understand Soto's real projectability much. Right now, he's completely raw, and that's fine. He was a shortstop who transitioned to being a pitcher in high school so that is truly expected. He's got the velocity to be successful already, and he's working on expanding his offerings and getting his mechanics in order. The Twins are clearly intent on maximizing his potential rather than using the tried and true polishing method so that at least says something about what they think they have. In regard to things like BABIP and HR/FB rate, those metrics are often worthless in the low minors. Bad stuff gets walloped, and batted ball data is of poor quality/reliability. "Bad luck" is actually a red flag indicator for "bad stuff" down at the low levels. Pitchers who don't have good stuff never make it to the MLB level so having results be stable alongside MLB averages is mostly expected. I think it's fine to have Soto at #4. The Twins' system is hyper thin, IMHO. A few really high end prospects (Jenkins, Rodriguez, Keaschall) and then a bunch of mid level guys who are largely interchangeable with each other due to low ceilings or high injury or positional change risk.
  17. bean5302
    Your opinion of his ceiling is just a lot higher than mine I expect.
  18. bean5302
    Joe Ryan's velo didn't change much the first 3 seasons. In 2021, you're dealing with a SSS. Looking at his average heater, it peaked at over 92mph for one of his starts. Ryan has typically started the season out of the gate with a little more heat, losing a tick as the season wears on. He did add velo last year, and his fastball did improve in expected outcomes marginally from 2023's xwOBA .274 to 2024's xwOBA .266. He also suffered his first significant shoulder/arm strain, though I have no idea if it was related to throwing harder. That said, Ryan has settled into that 50% fastball category for a good reason, and that's because each quality pitch makes other pitches in the repertoire better. They work as a team. Joe Ryan was a back end rotation guy with 3 viable pitches. He's worked to adjust his options (like many other MLB pitchers), and now that Ryan has more viable options, he doesn't have to rely purely on throwing the most physically demanding pitch.
  19. bean5302
    If he's not good enough to be on the 26 man roster, why would they want to pay him a guaranteed $1.3MM? My point was really about the Twins banking on Topa to earn and maintain a 26 man roster spot, and constructing their roster around that premise. On his own, it's no big deal. Add in Stewart, Alcala, Moran, and Duarte, and stability becomes ever more concerning. The upside with Topa, in my opinion, is going to be a 3.50 ERA type of year. The risk/reward balance doesn't seem to match up well. Probably a little better than Tonkin, but with no durability.
  20. bean5302
    Castro should have substantial trade value. Falvey should have an understanding of other team interest in the Twins' favorite utility guy. Tender & Trade or commit to finding payroll space elsewhere so you can Tender & Keep him. Topa will be 34 next year. He's been around forever, and he's had 1 healthy season since 2019. The Twins can't afford to fill up the roster with injury prone relievers. A 26 man spot with a guy who is probably nothing more than a medium value reliever if he's healthy doesn't seem like a great value to me. If the Twins can convince some other club 2023 wasn't a fluke, they should be able to move him, but the framework for that should have already been taken care of. Tender & Trade or Non-tender. I'd tender everybody else. When determining whether or not I'd pursue a long term contract with any player, I first ask if the player highly likely to remain a quality player in a major role? Larnach? No. Stewart? No. Then it's a question of what would that player get in free agency, and how far away are they? For guys who are already arb eligible, huge discounts are likely off the table. They're already going to make some money, and they just need a couple years before the huge payday. Lopez was Arb2 when the Twins extended him to 4yrs and $73.5MM, buying out 2 years of free agency. Joe Ryan - Spotrac's MV is 5yrs $91MM. Bailey Ober - Spotrac's MV is 4yrs $74MM I'd be inclined to think 10MM AAV deals are a non-starter for them, especially if you're throwing team options at the end of them during their last potential 3+ year contract length ages. Griffin Jax - First off, if I was Jax, I'd push the Twins all the way to arbitration before signing some $2.6MM deal. The MV in Spotrac is pretty nuts here because of the length, but I think the AAV is reasonable at $14MM/yr. I could see Jax getting a 3yr $42MM deal. A 4yr deal buying out some free agency at $5MM doesn't seem like it offers much value to Jax.
  21. bean5302
    Agreed... if we weren't talking about Falvey's trade skills. The Twins don't have the $6.2MM in the budget, and Falvey has proven he doesn't know how to trade players and move money off the books. (Farmer, Kepler x2, Polanco x2) I see Willi Castro as quite similar to Marwin Gonzalez when he got 2yrs $21MM from the Twins in that crazy 2018-2019 offseason, when MLBTR predicted 4yrs $36MM.
  22. bean5302
    They are polar opposite hitting styles in almost every possible respect, and they have wildly different power profiles. There is virtually nothing similar between the two hitters beyond which side of the plate they stand on. In the field, they're also polar opposites in terms of skill sets. Larnach is slow with a weak arm, but he has great instincts. Wallner's got a cannon arm and he's nearly as fast as Austin Martin, but he doesn't have the instincts Larnach does. Wallner has perennial All Star talent. Larnach has the talent to be a regular on an MLB team.
  23. bean5302
    wooooooosssshhhhhhh Did something just fly by your head? LOL
  24. bean5302
    Adams had a good enough run in AA to potentially generate some interest, and the promotion to AAA likely put him on the radar. He's incredibly inconsistent in terms of strikeouts (might be 13 K/9 for 5 games, then 5 K/9 for 5 games) but he is consistent in that he performed well at the end of the day. Really weird. Perhaps the Twins think there's some serious upside in there somewhere?
  25. bean5302
    Jorge Mateo's playing time splits do not suggest he's a "super utility" player. He's a 2B/SS. He's never played more than 67 innings (8 games) in a season anywhere else, and not more than 20 innings anywhere else in the past 3 years. He can't hit so all of his 0.5 WAR value comes from defense at SS. Baltimore seems to be bringing him back, but much of the league speculated he might be non-tendered due to his projected arb salary at $3.2MM. 2B 3B SS LF CF RF Total 2020 20 0 0 24 7 4 55.0 2021 112 27 120 28.33 67 46.33 400.7 2022 0 0 1257.33 0 0 0 1257.3 2023 0 0 843 0 20 0 863.0 2024 457.67 0 31 0 17 0 505.7 Career 589.67 27 2251.33 52.33 111 50.33 3081.7 Percentage 19% 1% 73% 2% 4% 2% The Twins are not adding a $5.6MM relief pitcher who should be better than he actually is according to results. Falvey does not spend money on relievers.
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