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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    Exactly. There are a bunch of reasons to shut down SF/NY in those scenarios. My point is Correa could have chosen to move ahead with negotiations if he wanted to, and he could have gotten a contract at as good or better than what he wound up getting with the Twins. For example, the Twins initially offered Correa a fully guaranteed 10 year $285MM contract. The final negotiated deal was 6yrs $200MM guaranteed, 4yrs $80MM vesting (10yrs $280MM with vesting). The Twins' renegotiated offer didn't change much from the initial offer if vesting occurs. Getting NY or SF to $200MM+ guaranteed (matching or beating the Twins) would not have been hard, but it would have set a bad precedent for players in general, and it would have required Correa to accept what he felt was pretty insulting conduct.
  2. bean5302
    The Twins have a real medical staff, trainer, coaching, manager problem at this point. Guys just drop like flies left and right year in and year out. The Twins are able to move around guys as needed, but what is going on with Will Holland? He would have been the 3rd depth guy for SS behind Castro and Lee. He played a bit early in ST, but then had some sort of injury. He's on the 7 day IL.
  3. bean5302
    Yeah... if Larnach only had 200 PA at the MLB level before the Twins wrote him off.
  4. bean5302
    Correa didn't even take SF's calls after they balked at the physical despite SF wanting to work something out. The Mets initially countered with 6yrs $157MM after the physical, but with options to reach the original $315MM based solely on physicals which is more than he could ultimately earn with the Twins. Correa refused to negotiate. It's almost nonsensical to believe Correa couldn't have gotten something similar to the reduced Twins' offer from SF or NY had Correa been willing to negotiate after the physicals.
  5. bean5302
    Wallner hamstring "tightness." Hopefully he won't miss a ton of time, but I'd bet he'll be out for at least 2 weeks. Don't know much about Correa's wrist. Just know it was sore and he left the game.
  6. bean5302
    He wasn't forced back to the Twins. He rebuffed both SF and NY's attempts at additional negotiations and both SF and NY were on record as surprised/disappointed they weren't able to find a way to get him. I agree Correa would be more likely to waive his NTC, and he's got more leverage to work out a deal to make it happen with all those vesting options. Buxton's NTC ends after next year so he might be willing to waive the NTC if the 5 team trade list provision got removed as well.
  7. bean5302
    Equally likely the Twins fire Baldelli for a manager who doesn't believe in musical chairs for who gets playing time or so many scheduled days off. Foot injuries can be troublesome for sure, but when you have $35MM a year of income to address issues, you can get some pretty amazing solutions to address those issues. If I recall, the plantar issue was in different feet in 2023 and 2024. It's crazy how one foot can be so troublesome while the other foot never has the issue, but I've had it happen running as well. If Correa doesn't produce during the 2028 campaign, the solution is just to bench him more. If he does produce and the contract vests, it was worth it. That's years away, though. The problems the Twins have right now are: 1) Ownership 2) Front office 3) Manager 4) Other things
  8. bean5302
    65 plate appearances, and pitchers are focusing on Larnach's most glaring Achilles Heel. The changeup. Larnach is seeing nearly a quarter of his pitches as changeups this year, but he's been doing some damage with them. Historcially, Larnach destroys 4 seamers, and I expect he'll be back at it this year. Byron Buxton struggled for a couple months catching up to fastballs last year with a needed timing adjustment, and I suspect Larnach's timing is just off right now as well. It takes consistent playing time to work through slumps. Baldelli doesn't recognize the value of consistent time, consistent positions, consistent routines, consistent pitch counts, consistent anything. It may be tough for Larnach to work through it.
  9. bean5302
    It's nice to see Gabriel Gonzalez starting off well. I'd like to see him fast tracked to AA if he keeps up the performance to see if he can regain some prospect status. Last year was disappointing as he fell way down the prospects list throughout an injury riddled, weak performance 2024 repeat of A+. That said, he certainly improved vs. his 2023 run at A+ ball. Maybe it's just taken him a while to adjust?
  10. bean5302
    There's a fair chance Correa gets to 575 considering he's done it 3 of the past 4 years. There's a strong sentiment in the forums labeling Correa as injury prone like Buxton, but Correa has been one of the more durable players in MLB over the past few years. Personally, I think it's probably 50/50 he gets there.
  11. bean5302
    Current Twins players (or players who were on the Twins) over the past 4 completed seasons who qualified for batting title based on 504+ PA 2021 - Ty France (650) 2021 - Carlos Correa (640) 2022 - Ty France (613) 2022 Carlos Correa (590) 2023 - Ty France (665) 2023 Carlos Correa (580) 2024 - Willi Castro (635) 2024 - Ty France (535)
  12. bean5302
    I think it's fine Festa gets the start over Matthews. Honestly, I expect both Festa and Matthews to be in the rotation before the end of the year, but Festa clearly has the higher position based on historical status and MLB results last year. Not sure how many pitches Baldelli will let Festa have. I think Rocco rolls one of those hundred-sided dice immediately after having position players draw straws to determine if they're going to start and what position the player is going to play sometimes. Baldelli's optimal lineup he hopes works out one day: C - Matt Wallner 2B - Carlos Correa SS - Harrison Bader DH - Mickey Gasper CF - Ryan Jeffers 3B - Trevor Larnach 1B - Byron Buxton RF - Brooks Lee LF - Christian Vazquez
  13. bean5302
    I think Alcala needs a change of scenery, bad.
  14. bean5302
    Both full NTC with limited trade value so it would certainly be a tough sell. Pablo Lopez is far more likely to be moved.
  15. bean5302
    That heat map showing Funderburk all over the place is the issue. He seems to have zero command, and even limited control. Not sure why that is, but until he can start throwing his pitches where he needs to put them, he's going to struggle.
  16. bean5302
    Miguel Sano played SS for the Twins at both Rookie Ball levels. Doesn't mean that's relevant. Keachall had been panned as an outright poor defender with scouting reports similar to Edouard Julien. Fangraphs improved their opinion of Keaschall's defense last year to basically serviceable. If you like Mickey Gasper and Eddie Julien at 2B, you'll probably be okay with Keaschall is how it reads to me.
  17. bean5302
    Emma is struggling to hold his own in AAA. No power, 40% K rate. Keaschall is at wRC+ 120ish territory, which is about league average if pushed up to MLB, plus he's still proving his UCL is ready for consistent game action. Keaschall isn't considered a plus defender by any stretch, either. Larnach's expected results are quite a bit better than actual, but it's clear he's not seeing the ball too well. We're talking about April 13th, here. Like 12 games worth of plate appearances. Anything under 80-100 PA is just noise. When guys aren't making stupid mistakes like Miranda made, it's all knee jerk reactions at this point.
  18. bean5302
    Personally, I think Gasper goes down if Miranda didn't make that absolutely brutal, and inexcusable, double base running mistake. Miranda will be fine long term, maybe on a different team. He's not going to be an elite bat, but his contact skills and mediocre pop will add cheap value someplace in a lineup.This is the first time in his 1100 PA career his K rate has been north of 18.8% so the 36.1% K rate is totally an abberation killing Miranda's value. I think it's clear Miranda has some mental stuff going on, and I'm sure some of that has to do with the message he got this spring. It's worth noting Miranda has all of 8 full games worth of performance with only 36 PA. Stretching things back into Spring Training, Miranda really hasn't shown any pop so far this year. The 23.8 ft/sec sprint speed is way, way down, but it suggests he might be exactly be putting in full effort. In regard to Julien, everything he's doing suggests his approach at the plate is good enough. It's not terribly surprising since Julien was very good last year into May. This year, he's making good contact with breaking balls. I guess it's a situation of making the most of opportunities. I think it's really about having their heads in the game and playing solid baseball, even if the results aren't there.
  19. bean5302
    2B = CF in terms of positional value. Rodriguez's rank is because his ceiling at the plate is seen as a lot higher than Keaschall's. Keaschall isn't viewed as a big MLB bat, just a potentially good one. I think the big advantage Keaschall will have at the end of the season is legitimate projectability as a viable MLB player. I expect Rodriguez will drop off top 100 lists this year when his K rate holds at 40% in AAA and he struggles to produce much above league average in St. Paul.
  20. bean5302
    The short answer is probably not. There's talent in St. Paul, but finding the right roster moves to get them PA where they could add value is tough at the moment.
  21. bean5302
    While I wouldn't say Baldelli getting fired is an absolute zero, it'd be utterly shocking to me. The sale of the club has been unsuccessful and Baldelli's contract is still ongoing. The attendance has been terrible and the Twins' budget has to be tight for the Pohlad's after they eliminated some front office positions last year. Canning Baldelli would require a new manager. Who are you going to call in? The look would be rough for Falvey and Baldelli, too, after they scapegoated Popkins. Suddenly the Twins bats suck again and Falvey has to ditch Baldelli, who've been joined at the hip since Baldelli was hired?
  22. bean5302
    How many people in the U.S. could do the job as well as Jose Miranda? There are 1,000 players who play the game at the MLB level per season. So we'll say 1:350,000 putting Miranda at top 0.00003% of performers. Seems like 1% money is fair? Way too much rage around TD these days.
  23. bean5302
    That's why Miranda's value is +12 and not +100. Had Miranda continued his .325/.366/.522 OPS .888 wRC+ 151 pace he had at the All Star Break for the full season, he'd be one of the most coveted players in all of baseball right now. What is known is Miranda played with a hurt back, and he's got 800 PA in two full seasons where he was well above average.
  24. bean5302
    Fortunately, your personal rage doesn't factor into teams' assessment of players. I'd imagine that'd make for an awfully unstable player valuation market, haha.
  25. bean5302
    Where are all those enraged, trolling Dobnak fans just flabbergasted he's not starting for the Twins? LOL, I can usually resist this type of reality check post, but I just couldn't do it this time.
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