bean5302

Buxton is more valuable than Sano. Between the two of them, Buxton is probably more productive at the plate, but Buxton also provides enormous defensive value when he plays. Sano is a boat anchor on the team in the field and should really be relegated to DH where his league average bat doesn't produce more than scrub value. Non relief pitcher players producing less 2.0 WAR hurt a team's chances at the playoffs and arguing Sano is a 2.0 WAR player as a DH at this point in his career is dubious. That said, I pointed out I have no "faith" in Sano. I didn't say Sano has no talent or that it's impossible for Sano to succeed. I just don't think he will. I believe Sano has the talent to be much better than he is, but the Twins are overloaded at 3B/1B/DH players as it is giving him few ironclad paths to production. If Sano were to drop to 225-230lbs, I fully expect he could still be an All Star caliber third baseman, but that is pure fantasy. At least I actually think Sano is trying hard right now to improve his game due to a wake up call when he essentially lost his starting spot, but the idea of Sano sustaining the effort just doesn't seem realistic to me.

Duffey's been throwing a ton of fastballs right in the middle of the zone this year instead of staying to the sides of the plate like he did in 2020. His curve has expanded up higher and into the middle of the strike zone this year as well.

Yes, I did cut off 2017. You cut off 2016 when he could actually play 3B and still only produced 1.2 WAR so I could accuse you of lying with statistics. Then you could argue I cut off 2015, when he looked like a future All Star 3B. It's called supporting an argument. There are endless ways I could choose to critque Sano which would be more damning of his play. WAR was just easy, low hanging fruit which compiles almost everything together. In regard to your SSS arguments, Sano has never played more than 116 games in a season. Considering how much flak Buxton gets, it probably sounds surprising to people Sano has never been a qualified hitter for a normal season in his career. If we doubled his 2020 season, he'd still only have 1.0 WAR across a typical Sano full season and a wRC+ of 99 who is now a DH. He had 299 (300) plate appearances in 2018. That's not really small sample size. Values have already become pretty stable at that point. For the record, I'm looking at the trend and Sano's trend has been obvious. I typically look at the last 3-4 years for players because it removes luck or a season of playing hurt (like Polanco), etc. I don't look further back than that because it's not relevant. Players change over time and looking at what they did 5 years ago isn't relevant to the player's expected value today.

To be honest, I thought it was more like a strawman wearing a jesters hat and a fat suit.

Obviously concerned about a potential Balazovic injury at this point. Even if Balazovic isn't hurt, the Twins need to shut him down for a couple weeks. I can't help but think he's got some dead arm going on at this point and throwing hard with a dead arm is a sure fire way to get him hurt. I think Canterino is ready for AA at this point. With a little over a month left to play, he can certainly slot into Balazovic's spot while Balazovic rests up.

I know you bring this up... but Saints games are more expensive than Twins games right now so by this logic, shouldn't the Saints be demanding the Twins demote players so the paying customers can get their money's worth?

I have no faith in Sano. It's awfully hard to ignore he's going to finish this year as the 3rd in the last 4 where he produced 0.5 WAR or less. He's a pure DH at this point with a -42.50 UZR/150 at 1B and it's just bizzare the Twins could keep trotting him out there. He might actually have 1.0 WAR this year if he wasn't in the field booting half the balls that come his way.

Just working purely off memory in the moment Sano will be back on the roster next year, no question, but some things are likely to move around.

I think opening day 2023 is very aggressive for Lewis. Unless a completely torn ACL and 2 years away from competitive baseball makes him better. Lewis is going to be very rusty going into next year. I don't understand the expectation he could be an opening day 2022 MLB or AAA player. He didn't even perform adequately at AA two years ago. If I were the Twins, I start him in A+ and give him a chance to get some confidence and his bearings with the hope he catches on to promote him to AA after 30 games or so. Then give him the rest of the year at AA unless he looks like Miranda has this year and then maybe a promotion to AAA after the trade deadline. To be on the opening day 2023 roster, Lewis would have to A ) Recover from a completely torn ACL and get back to full speed and look good before spring training games start. B ) Knock the cover off the ball while playing vastly improved defense at AA for at least 75 games. C ) Continue to shred and play great defense at AAA through the rest of July/August after his promotion D ) Look great on a September call up to the MLB team. If Lewis does all that, he'll be showing a high likelihood of fulfilling his potential ceiling as an MVP caliber shortstop. What an ask considering the situation!

Yeah, they combined to basically throw a Maddux!

I think versatility is great. This front office lacks understanding versatility is supposed to include competence. I think Falvey jumped forward through the part where Hatteberg had to learn how to play 1B and thought Wash was joking when he said it was incredibly hard to play first base while his hero Billy Beane said its not that hard. Just moving guys around doesn't make them "versatile" it makes them bad defenders and the Twins have the 3rd worst defense in the game.

It's well established you're angry about the Twins' performance. The members of this site have certainly picked up on it.

The Twins have moved on from Gordon. He's not even playing SS in AAA anymore, he's being used as an IF/OF utility guy. He's not going to get a 40 man roster spot. 0% Austin Martin couldn't supplant Palacios at SS. 0% Jose Miranda hasn't played any significant time at SS since 2016. 0% Jorge Polanco. Yeah, I could see the Twins shifting him back over to SS despite being the worst fielding shortstop in the game in the past 20 years. 40% Royce Lewis. It would be totally bonkers to make him opening day shortstop. Lewis is a prospect who wasn't even treading water at AA at the plate while being absolutely a nightmare in the field in his last full competition experience 2 years ago and is now rehabbing a full tear of his ACL. 0% JT Riddle. Yeah. MiLB roster filler entering his second year or arbitration eligibility isn't happening. 0%. Drew Maggi? He's arbitration eligible next year so he'll be non-tendered. 0% Jermaine Palacios. I have no idea on this one. He's one of the best SS at AA this year and certainly top 3 who is still sitting in AA despite the fact the Twins have nothing blocking him or on the roster. I really expect the Twins to leave him off the roster. 5% Andrelton Simmons. LOL all you want, everything seems to point to Simmons being back next year IMHO. He's still playing every day and the Twins haven't even bothered to look at Palacios despite a stellar performance in AA. It's ridiculous, but I can't see why the Twins would be playing Simmons every day at this point if they hadn't decided this year is a fluke and they'll be ohhhhhhh so smart when they sign him for peanuts and they fix him to return him to top form next year... puke. 50%

There isn't a need to apologize for an opinion, it's just not what a lot of fans were really hoping for the Twins to do. Honestly, I could see a 100% in house roster: C - Garver/Jeffers 1B - Kirilloff 2B - Polanco 3B - Miranda / Donaldson SS - Palacios UI - Arraez: LF - Refsnyder CF - Buxton RF - Kepler UO - Celestino DH - Donaldson/Larnach SP1 - Maeda SP2 - Balazovic SP3 - Ryan SP4 - Ober SP5 - Winder BP1 - Rogers BP2 - Duffey BP3 - Moran BP4 - Duran BP5 - Thielbar BP6 - Gant BP7 - Dobnak BP8 - Stashak The roster construction above would be totally reasonable for the Twins if they weren't intending on competing for the division title next year. Could it still happen? If people stayed healthy and about 5 of the 8 "iffy" folks in that roster played well or up to their absolute ceilings (like Balazovic) the roster would be potentially competitive during the regular season. That rotation would almost certainly be doomed in the playoffs though. Worst case scenario for that roster? Probably not terrible. Maybe 90 losses.

I'm also of the opinion Lewis is overrated right now. Poor pitch recognition led to a poor walk rate. Awkward, slow and huge leg kick contributed to the poor strikeout rate. Miserable defense at SS in 2019. To top it off, a complete tear of his ACL which has a risk of robbing Lewis of some of his elite speed and quickness needed for shortstop/center field. By all accounts Lewis has elite athleticism and a fantastic work ethic and attitude, but all the issues plus 2 years of no regular competitive play is a lot to overcome. Lewis isn't going to have much time to get to work next year to start the season and if he's not significantly improved by mid season at AA, he could fall out of the top 10. Martin Woods-Richardson Balazovic - 3 pitches limits his ceiling Lewis Duran - Until Duran gets some control and is able to prove his curve and change work, he's likely a pullpen arm. I'd consider him a less talented version of Graterol right now.

I was kinda wondering the same thing. Saw "Ryan" used a couple times and was thinking... does he mean "John Gant"? or was he thinking "Gant Ryan" confusing Joe Ryan with Gant? I didn't think he meant Ryan Jeffers, haha

For a team with almost nothing but question marks on the mound to fill 13 positions "Mostly Set Up" seems pretty confident.

Public figures are held to different standards in our society, like it or not. Simmons decided to make his personal opinion public on the platform most associated with maelstroms of hate, outrage and personal attack regardless of the topic in the world today. High profile professional athlete's, especially in team owned sports, have contracts containing clauses about personal conduct. These clauses are quite wide in scope and while I don't believe they're intended to curtail freedom of speech, they're designed with the expecation employees are consciencious with their behavior and statements. Have you ever noticed how many pro athletes stay further away from politics than the story of Star Wars takes place from our galaxy? This article was probably ill-advised because of the likelihood it would lead to the creation of a rift in the community, yet I believe it also falls under the scope of Twins related content because the straw which broke the camels back in roster decisions have definitely been made in similar circumstances. Andrelton Simmons' statement was straight up stupid (because it took a minority position on a very hot button topic) and it does potentially impact not only his position on the Twins, but also whether or not he receives a contract offer this offseason. It all depends on how much it blows up. Right now, it's a non-issue because no national media has picked it up; they're focused on Trevor Bauer and Kirk Cousins.

Arraez is an average 2B at the MLB level despite the constant Twins fan bashing. He's just as good as Polanco because Arraez has a steady glove where Polanco is notoriously error prone despite his great range. Severino is probably about the same potential as Arraez. Below average-ish speed/range, well above average arm for 2B, but the Twins keep shifting Severino around and his error rate is very poor.

Palacios is a MiLB free agent at the end of the year and is not on the 40 man roster. He's reached base safely in 12 straight games (.304/.365/.717 OPS 1.083 9.6% BB, 13.4% K) has owned an OPS north of .800 all but 1 month (July .667) this year. He hasn't committed an error in 25 games while playing nearly exclusive shortstop. Palacios also leads all AA shortstops in home runs and is top 10 in all of the minors, has been great on the basepaths stealing 14 bases in 19 attempts and has a .265 average despite a potentially lower than expected BABIP given his speed. Palacios also has a BB rate 1/2 his K rate and over the past month, his BB and K rate are nearly identical. Yet, Simmons is still playing SS every day. May Line: .311/.398/.478 OPS .876, ISO .267, 12.6% BB, 25.2% K with 6 errors June Line: .250/.348/.490 OPS .838, ISO .240, 9.8% BB, 22.3% K with 4 errors July Line: .221/.303/.364 OPS .667, ISO .143, 10.0% BB, 22.2% K with 2 errors Aug Line: .279/.354/.628 OPS .982, ISO .349, 10.4% BB, 14.6% K with 0 errors Overall: .265/.352/.474 OPS .826, ISO .209, 10.8% BB, 22.1% K with 12 errors I can't see anything more within reason Palacios could have done this year to get called up. The Twins even have two prospects they may want to play SS at AA other than Palacios right now. Martin and Steer. With about a dozen reasons to call Palacios' number, the Twins have refused to do so. There are 4 things you could argue, in order of likelihood. The Twins have already written him off and think of Palacios as MiLB roster filler who's just getting lucky (most likely) The Twins think Palacios is a potential starting shortstop, but want to evaluate other unlikely contributors who are hanging onto a fringey 40 man roster spot so they don't want to give Palacios a spot on the 40 man yet. The Twins think Palacios is a potential starting shortstop, but they think if Palacios stays in AA, nobody else in MLB will notice him and they may be able to re-sign him to a MiLB contract without having to give him a 40 man roster spot and use him as a potential backup next year. The Twins think Palacios is a future All Star starting shortstop and are trying to manipulate his service time. Btw, this post is fun because Palacios is just playing so well by the stat lines. It's all lot more about the positivity around Palacios and how he's been consistently playing great as an underdog all year than it is about the Twins' ineptitude. Most of the other "underdogs" have some pretty concerning peripherals. High K rates, low BB rates, unusual BABIP, granite gloves, iron boots, etc. Palacios has improved his K rate all season long. His BB rate has been sustained since 3 years ago in Tampa, his ISO has always been playable, his glove has shaken off the rust and become rock solid, he's stolen 5 of his last 6 attempts. I mean, it really seems like almost every facet of his game has become more polished while sustaining a very high level of play at the plate. If the Twins think Palacios isn't going to be picked up by another team, they're dreaming. Ultimately, I still believe Palacios is far from a sure thing at the MLB level, but it's hard to ignore how well he's been playing at AA all season long. Sustained success beyond 300 plate appearances without obvious big red flags isn't usually flukey at the high minors. If we eliminate the missed season last year, Palacios would be in his age 23 season this year (he just turned 25 a few days ago).

It was so very close at the plate. I don't think Jeffers could have played it better. Polanco's throw was weak and one hopped/rolled to home from short right field to the 1st base side, pulling Jeffers away from the optimal tagging position on teh 3rd base side. If Jeffers blocks the plate, that's an automatic safe. Jeffers left foot was basically touching home, he was positioned perfectly in front of the plate and when the ball reached his glove, I'd say Kiermaier was about 6 feet from touching and already beginning his drop to slide. That's about 24 ft/sec at the end, 6 feet equals a 1/4 of a second for Jeffers to spin, pick up Kiermier, and apply the tag. Kiermaier kept his body behind home and touched with his hand which was already past Jeffers at the spin, giving Jeffers no good target for the tag.

If the Twins keep Polanco, Arraez and Donaldson should be traded because their talent is worth more to the Twins in prospect/player capital than their abilities are worth on the field. The Twins have decided Gordon and Palacios are not MLB shortstops which leaves the Twins with nothing they can rely upon at the position in the minors for a couple years. Unfortunately, one of the best targets for shortstops, Brandon Crawford, was just re-signed by the Giants leaving the options for a short term quality SS in free agency down a major option. The Twins are going to need to figure out a way to get a good player for 2-4 years at the position. Considering Simmons has remained on the roster this long, I have a very bad feeling they're going to bring him back.

Yeah, the video is available over at MLB.com. Unless Larnach has a 6 foot vertical, he wasn't catching that ball which literally bounced off the right field wall about 12 feet off the ground. By the time Larnach got to the warning track, it should have been obvious it wasn't a ball he was going to catch, but I don't think Larnach has hardly any time in RF. Polanco should have been charged with an error on that play. On a single to RF with runners at 1st and 2nd, Larnach hit Sano as a cutoff to home... and Sano promptly threw to 3rd when there was a runner who was standing half way between 3rd and the plate allowing another run to score. It was guaranteed to be at least 1 out if Sano throws home there. Honestly, tough to blame Gant for really any of the scoring, lol.

Thought I caught a Lewis Thorpe fastball reading of 88mph for a split second on that Twitter link? I hope that's not the case. The biggest concern on Thorpe is the velocity. At 88mph, he doesn't have the stuff to play at MLB. He needs to be up in the 90-92mph range or he's not worth looking at because he'd just be throwing batting practice. Palacios with 2 hits and 2 stolen bases, but not enough for the Wind Surge. It's becoming comical at this point.

Jorge Polanco is indeed a gold glove shortstop in the making until you look at his stats. Polanco has the worst UZR/150 of any qualified 2B at -11.2, largely driven by having the highest number of fielding errors of any qualified 2B and the 2nd worst error rate overall. UZR ignores plays where the shift is on and likely impacted the play, but that's subject to a human scorer's opinion. Range Factor has Polanco much better off because of extremely high rate of assists in the field. I suspect his range factor benefits from the enormous amount of shifts the Twins run. RF doesn't care if there is a shift or not. In short... until Polanco drops the error rate which has absolutely plagued him throughout most of his career, he's not going to be a great defender anywhere in the infield.