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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    Great night to be at Target Field last night. The crowd was once again small, but pretty boisterous. Plenty of noise and ambiance, people were very active and energetic. I don't get it. 10 game win streak coming in, well over .500 on the year, weather was sunny and not too cold, Friday night premium game vs. the Red Sox. Attendance 24k.
  2. bean5302
    Not sure why people expected Kirilloff to be better? vs. RH career: 641 PA .271/.327/.444 OPS .771, 7.0% BB, 23.7% K, .173 ISO wRC+ 114 <--- good vs. LH career: 165 PA .205/.285/.336 OPS .620, 6.1% BB, 23.0%K, .130 ISO wRC+ 75 <--- unplayably bad 2023 vs. RH: 263 PA .300/.373/.485 OPS .858, 9.1% BB, 24.0% K, .185 ISO wRC+ 138 <--- excellent, .374 BABIP 2024 vs. RH: 92 PA .253/.315/.470 OPS .785, 8.7% BB, 23.9% K, .217 ISO wRC+ 123 <--- very good He had a great SSS run last year, but he was a little lucky by the expected numbers and the .374 BABIP in 2023 didn't hurt.
  3. bean5302
    I still think Larnach is a 1.5 WAR outfielder. He's had his bursts of production in the past, but his problem has always been identifying off-speed and breaking pitches. It's not that Larnach just doesn't hit them well, he's been unable to even identify the pitches. The only hit fastballs trend has followed into the very SSS this year, but it looks better to start (like it did to start last year or 2022, can't remember which). If he can sustain .800 OPS level production above 150 plate appearances while not being a black hole against 3 of the 5 (changeup, slider, sweeper, splitter, curve), he's got a shot at changing my opinion.
  4. bean5302
    Castro played in 125 games last year. He doesn't get to the 2-3 WAR range without playing almost every day. Which $700k starter are you benching for him and his $6MM salary? That's the point. Castro doesn't add much value over the typical every day starting position player in MLB so it's not advisable to keep him on the roster when he costs 6-7x what his replacement player will cost unless there is a very strong need. Also, the Twins should be developing a starting caliber (2+ WAR) position player 1-2x per year. They've got 6 years of team control and 9 positions (including DH) to fill. Teams should spend money on guys they can't expect to develop regularly (4+ WAR guys). Those big WAR free agent guys are expensive for mid-market teams like the Twins, and in order to have the budget to get them, mid-market teams can't blow all of their budget on good utility guys.
  5. bean5302
    Remember all the comments about members not wanting to see click-bait like articles? Yeah. About that. This site just lost some respect from me.
  6. bean5302
    There's plenty to like in his actual results, but his advanced metrics do also show plenty of reason to remain skeptical with the SSS. If he doesn't start hitting some more line drives and taking some walks, the production won't be sustainable.
  7. bean5302
    Nice article. I think Miranda has been substantially overlooked by the fan base (and the front office) after trying to play through a bum shoulder all last year before finally undergoing surgery. I'm also glad he's hitting RH well in addition to crushing lefties outright. On a team obsessed with platoon-only, all or nothing HR guys, Miranda is a breath of fresh air at the plate. From an athletic tools standpoint, he's still lacking as he's a poor runner, and his arm is below average which is why most people expect him to land at 1B/DH, but with Royce Lewis out Miranda is getting into the lineup at 3B. Santana is entrenched at 1B and the front office is trying to keep Kirilloff at DH. 90 innings is pretty much nothing this year, but there's nothing jumping out at me different this year than his previous 3B experiences. In short, he's not cut out for the position, but that's where the opportunity is. Miranda at 3B is better than Santana at 3B, basically.
  8. bean5302
    Nice article on Velez. Hopefully, he learned his lesson with the PED violation. The writer pegs Velez's fastball at more like 90mph vs. mid-90s, but I don't have any actual data to reference. https://www.thegazette.com/minor-league-sports/ricardo-velez-finds-himself-closing-out-games-for-the-cedar-rapids-kernels/
  9. bean5302
    Loading up the back leg/knee is the default technique for power hitters, but it's more evident these days because of the pitch velocity. Hitters have less time to rock back on their rear leg than in years past so leg kicks aren't as commonplace. The leg kicks and toe taps weren't ever about the front leg, they were about loading the back leg. A lot of power hitters now just pre-load their back leg so they can eliminate the extra timing/motion. Buxton's batting stance in 2024 is identical to 2021 from what I can tell.
  10. bean5302
    I'm glad Martin got some time and plate appearances in the big show, and it doesn't surprise me his play at AAA has looked good right out of the gate. AAA is easy-mode after facing MLB pitchers. In a way, even if a player doesn't succeed at the MLB level, they still get the opportunity to identify weaknesses in their game which can permanently improve their level of play in the minors. Based on the fact Martin held his own against MLB pitching, I'd expect him to get more opportunities as soon as the openings become available.
  11. bean5302
    It's not like the track record on Martin is 22 games at the MLB level. There are his last 3 years in AA/AAA which are say the same thing, and that's why Martin's actual production in his 22 MLB games matches so well with projection tools. Add in the fact Martin is at borderline non-prospect age at 25, and Martin breaking the mold and turning into a legitimate starting caliber player is far fetched. Martin is fine as a backup/utility outfielder as far as I'm concerned, but I agree with the popular viewpoint here that Castro is a better option as a starter since he has the tools to succeed in CF. That said, I don't see why Martin wouldn't be called up to see some playing time between the OF positions if Buxton goes to the IL.
  12. bean5302
    Appreciate the background on Stewart. I didn't expect much out of him when we picked him up, and I doubted him for a good portion of his time last year. The guy is just a monster out of the 'pen. Hopefully his UCL can hang in there for the Twins and what will eventually be an enormous pay day for him.
  13. bean5302
    Hahaha, it's true. I started using the newly created word droughd. Combo drought/flood since there's never in history been a weather condition in between that.
  14. bean5302
    @DJL44 Why are you against sending Wallner further down? He's obviously completely messed up right now. I think he needs to have a major reshuffling. Gotta get him down to basics.
  15. bean5302
    Bowman traded to Arizona Diamondbacks for cash. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/05/d-backs-acquire-matt-bowman-from-twins.html
  16. bean5302
    It's hard to invest much in this discussion when you're comparing Willi Castro to borderline Hall of Famers like Phillips and Zobrist. Whit Merrifield, though? Sure, I think Castro could have a 99% ceiling of a Whit Merrifield-ish career at 20 WAR with a peak of 3.0-3.5 annual WAR or so, but even his 90% ceiling is Eduardo Escobar. So what if Castro does hit his 90-95% potential ceiling? Castro needs to be: A) Good enough to be an every day player. (check, if he hits his near ceiling) B) Substantially better than any other cheap option the Twins have to be that every day player. (here's the problem) The Twins have: Buxton, Kirilloff, Martin, Larnach, Wallner, DeKeirsey, Gonzalez, Jenkins, Rodriguez as current or pipeline outfield options who could be on the Twins after next year. The Twins have: Julien, Martin, Lewis, Correa, Miranda, Prato, Lee, Keashall, and Schobel as current or pipeline infielder options who could be on the Twins after next year. The same arguments against spending on high floor free agent/veteran guys like Carlos Santana, Kyle Farmer, and Manuel Margot apply to Willi Castro once he reaches free agency. Castro is not a super star player, and there is absolutely nothing in his history to suspect he ever could be. It's foolish to spend $5-10MM a year on a utility player when you're on a budget because they're usually available for league minimum out of your farm system. Is Willi Castro at 2.5-3.0 WAR worth $7-10MM more than Walker Jenkins at $780k or Brooks Lee at $780k?
  17. bean5302
    As somebody who left this site for 1 or 2 years, I can't agree with the comments about increased negativity here. I find it refreshingly less hostile, more mature, and more optimistic than it used to be. I'll be blunt... it felt like there were cliques on the site a couple years ago. I forums tended to be very polarized, and like users tended to go out of their way to support their clique or disparage their "enemy." I find the forums, posts and content to be much more moderate, and much more thoughtful in 2024. While the forums themselves may have less traffic, I also think the posts spawn site content and food for thought, even if the posts don't necessarily often have a lot of comments on them directly. I think it also provides an area for users who might be interested in furthering their involvement with the site as potential future writing talent. They're fine. I do still like the dead horse reaction...
  18. bean5302
    Polanco (1x AS), Altuve (8x AS, GG, MVP) and Torres (2x AS) were all at .975 last year. A fielding percentage of .975 at 2B is fine if the player has range, and Martin does. The "low bar" is the entire International AAA League.
  19. bean5302
    It's almost never a good investment to keep players after they're slated to hit free agency. The exceptions are super star players and the faces of the franchise for marketing value. He appears to be about a league average bat with adequate defense, and though the Twins are having him focus on maximizing his strike outs to better fit Falvey's preferred method of reducing wear and tear on players bodies. By striking out, players can just walk back to the dugout with a scowl like a real bad*** instead of risking their health by having to run after putting a ball in play. Next year will be Castro's final year of arbitration, and if he repeats last year's performance, he's going to get expensive for a utility guy, probably clocking in somewhere around Farmer's $6MM mark. There really isn't a spot on the Twins' roster for Castro as a starter right now. It looks like Julien has claimed 2B with newly passable defense, Correa is cemented at SS and there are less expensive (and probably better) options for 3B like Lewis and Miranda. In the outfield, Castro won't be a big asset in the corners and Buxton is cemented into starting CF. The Twins would probably be better off parting with Castro before 2025, but if the organization cleans up the depth chart and there is a real need for Castro, it might not be bad to bring him back. Beyond 2025, I don't see Castro being a good fit for the Twins at all.
  20. bean5302
    Martin was one of the best 2B in the league last year.
  21. bean5302
    We saw Rodriquez in Spring Training. He's far from ready.
  22. bean5302
    Yeah, Martin is going to be seriously stretched in CF. He's about as fast as Max Kepler used to be (28.0 ft/sec). 60 grade speed, which is just enough to cover CF, but his arm is probably 45 grade. He does have good instincts, but he's more Jake Cave than Billy Hamilton out there. Willi Castro at least has the tools to play center field (speed/arm), though his instincts are rough.
  23. bean5302
    Nah. Acquiring Margot at all was questionable when there were free agent options like Michael A. Taylor on the market. The fact Margot can't cover CF anymore makes the trade straight up stupid.
  24. bean5302
    I think the 10 game winning streak has activated a safety relief valve for pent up frustration in the fan base, but a large contingent of fans are still pretty disappointed in what most consider perplexing, if not foolhardy, offseason strategy for the front office. The fact almost all the acquisitions and unexpected carryovers have started the season off cold as Lake Superior singing in her icewater mansion has led to the fanbase seeking a scapegoat. Regardless, it's never a bad time to evaluate a roster and Margot truly looks like he's the new Tim Anderson out there. To see a player fall off so quickly is strange, but it's not unprecedented. I'd be surprised if Margot's position was even on the warm seat at the moment, though.
  25. bean5302
    Julien, Martin, Farmer, Castro, Prato. They can all play 2B so 2B remains the lowest area of concern for the Twins.
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