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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    Supposedly, he's improved a lot. He was considered pretty rough when the Twins acquired him. Average to a little above average controlling the run game compared to other legit prospects.
  2. bean5302
    Sabato's signing bonus at age 21 ($2.75MM) is more than a working lifetime of the median per capita income in the United States, and it's 15 years of median household income in Rye Brook Village, NY where he's from. He's nearing junior status in communications studies at UNC as well. I expect he'll be fine, even if he wasn't like my dad turning coal into diamonds using only his backside assets, haha
  3. bean5302
    It's not horrible. He's had 16 plate appearances. 12.5% BB rate and an extra base hit.
  4. bean5302
    Staumont technically does have an option left, but I'm not sure the Twins will exercise it unless they feel he just needs more time to adjust from the TOS surgery.
  5. bean5302
    Farmer is a solid SS, even if he doesn't have the cannon arm that Correa has because he has a very sure glove. Farmer is just as rangey as Correa (which is to say not very), but the defensive grades on Farmer at short are solid. That's to be expected as well, since Farmer was brought in by the Twins to be our likely starting shortstop last year before re-signing Correa. Farmer's bat is MLB average. More than adequate for SS, where the ultimate utility guy would likely post 2.5 WAR in a full season.
  6. bean5302
    That's only a $1 bump from last year, but with MSP event parking rates soaring, I'm going to be trying to find some other options this year. It'd be fun to take the North Star, but I don't know as they'll run that route again, just like a few of the Twins express shuttles which vanished after 2019. Unfortunately, Uber/Lyft may not be one of them for Minneapolis if they bail May 1st. But, on a brighter note, Squirrel has palm trees around her, and the Twins pounding the Yankees, no doubt! haha
  7. bean5302
    Alcala has options, plenty of them. It puts him as the odd man out for opening day without injuries or maybe the Twins not liking what they're seeing from Topa. We've got quite a few of relievers Falvey picked up from the Island of Misfit Toys, and not all of them are likely to find homes on the 26 man. Plus injuries are inevitable so I'm sure Alcala will get some opportunities this year, I just don't think it'll be opening day.
  8. bean5302
    Wonder what the ABC ramps will jump to this year. My guess is $20.
  9. bean5302
    Games played over the past 3 years. Lewis = 70, Qualified 0 seasons Kirilloff = 192, Qualified 0 seasons Buxton = 238, Qualified 0 seasons Kepler = 366, Qualified 0 seasons Correa = 419, Qualified all 3 seasons The biggest drop off in performance from starter to depth is Royce Lewis since I have faith Lewis can put in a full season, but based on his injury history, he's my number one concern. IMHO, Kirilloff is the most likely to miss the most games this year.
  10. bean5302
    Jax is a good reliever, but I think he's probably at his ceiling at this point. Hopefully, his arm will hang in there! I could see Jax improving in higher leverage situations this year which would help his WPA and possibly fans' perceptions.
  11. bean5302
    Wallner was on pace for 4 WAR in a full season last year, owning a wRC+ of 144. There were 11 hitters in MLB at 400 PA or more with a better wRC+ than Wallner, and while there's a lot of swing and miss in his game, there's a lot of stuff to back up his performance. From something I wrote up a couple months ago. wOBA = .377 vs. xwOBA = .376 Max Exit Velocity, he's top 3% in MLB, the 70+ power is real. His O-swing rate is well above average. His O-contact rate is well above average. He's top 20% in MLB walk rate. It's not like he swings wildly at junk all the time. It results in his overall contact and swinging strike rate being right in line with some pretty good players like Bryce Harper, J.D. Martinez, and Fernando Tatis. He was basically Bryce Harper at the plate last year (wRC+ 142 Harper, 144 Wallner), and Wallner's 2022-2023 MiLB splits showed he crushed lefties. Not sure why he wasn't given regular plate appearances against them at the MLB level, but it'd be good to see him prove those performances.
  12. bean5302
    Curious the article overlooks Correa's -3 OAA in 2022... OAA has a tendency to swing wildly from year to year, and Correa follows the trend. In any case, Correa wasn't able to get in meaningful work until December so there's probably not a reason to expect his range to improve. Quick reflexes, a sure glove and a cannon arm give Correa a nice floor at SS, but his sprint speed has dropped off a lot from early in his career. I expect Correa to have a huge bounce back year at the plate and for him to at least be an average fielder at SS. A nice 4-5 WAR campaign as you'd expect from an All Star caliber position player.
  13. bean5302
    Kirilloff obviously has his huge fans, but the front office has taken several steps recently that show they do not believe in him. This is not me declaring Kirilloff some sort of lost cause. This is my interpretation of what appears be a lack of faith and commitment to the player based on quotes and transactions from the front office. First, declaring he's not an outfielder candidate. If they believed Kirilloff's bat was going to play, the Twins have proven defense isn't a critical component to opportunity. Second, picking up a pretty low ceiling guy in Santana to play 1B eliminating Kirilloff's only viable full time defensive position. Third, essentially declaring Santana as the every day starting 1B who will not be platooned, wiping out Kirilloff's best road to plate appearances. The Athletic has reported they expect Kirilloff will get pretty regular at bats as a DH, but he's going to be platooning there, and quite frankly, Jose Miranda owned a wRC+ of 110 in 344 PA against righties in 2022 . As I mentioned, but I think people were so mad they didn't read, I'd like Kirilloff in a platoon split with Santana because Kirilloff can hit righties, but Santana can't. Miranda (if last year's shoulder actually was the issue) can hit both. In any case, we can cherry pick last year's vs. RHP numbers for Kirilloff, but I don't think 263 plate appearances is the best sample size given it comes with a .368 BABIP. The reality is he doesn't take walks, can't hit left handed pitching, has mediocre power because he hits liners rather than fly balls, and his career wRC+ is 112 in 549 PA with a more reasonable .335 BABIP vs. RHP based on a lackluster .274/.328/.440 OPS .768 (ISO .168). To me, Kirilloff looks like a DH only version of Eric Hosmer who must be platooned, and only plays 80 games a year because of injury. I also think that's what the Twins' front office sees at this point based on how many avenues for Kirilloff to see playing time have been eliminated.
  14. bean5302
    I think "never" is probably appropriate. It's the "now" which is probably out of tune. "Last year or never" was probably more accurate. Kirilloff is really finding himself without guaranteed opportunity at this point so I don't think it's up to him on whether he gets a chance to prove himself. The way things are sounding out of camp, it might be a 50/50 between Miranda and Kirilloff and who looks better in spring training, but I'd still favor Kirilloff getting the platoon with Santana at 1B.
  15. bean5302
    It feels like the Twins have moved on from Kirilloff to me: Falvey said he wasn't considered a potential outfielder and the club brought in a medium floor, low ceiling every day guy in Santana to replace Kirilloff at 1B with Rocco making a comment the best defender gets the most plate appearances, that he doesn't see Santana as a platoon guy (even though Santana can't hit RHP) and the best defender is 99% going to be Santana. At this point, it wouldn't shock me to see Kirilloff relegated to AAA depth like Larnach has been allowing the Twins to get more opportunities for other players they want to get a look at like Austin Martin.
  16. bean5302
    Bailey Ober will be 29 this year, basically the same age as Dylan Bundy was for the Twins a couple years ago... Ober's not a prospect and expecting a major leap in his effectiveness feels far-fetched, but there does seem to be the potential for him to reach his ceiling and stabilize as a back-end #3, high 3's ERA kind of guy worthy of being counted on as a playoff starter. I like the Ober still seems really hungry, and I suspect he has a chip on his shoulder from last year's treatment by the club, but adjustments he makes will be adjusted to by MLB hitters as well.
  17. bean5302
    Chase Petty, Landon Leach, Blayne Enlow, Cade Povich, Steve Hajjar, Connor Prielipp, Matt Canterino. Those are all pretty high draft picks by this front office. Plenty of trade acquisitions, too. Of course most of the Twins draft choices have been traded to sustain the rotation over the past few years, a few have flopped, but only Petty looks like a sure thing (for the Reds) with Canterino possibly working out for the Twins. To be blunt, my perspective is this front office has been far below average at developing starting pitching.
  18. bean5302
    I've got WAY more faith in Wallner than Julien. Like WAY more. Why? 1. Every single pitch type thrown more than 5% to Wallner, he posted neutral to positive values. 2. Wallner has elite power. 3. Wallner mashed lefties in the minors. 4. Wallner's strike zone heat maps. There is a large portion of the strike zone where Wallner has been very successful, and he hit all types of pitches. That's not the kind of batter who has obvious holes for pitchers to exploit to the point I'd expect him to fall down to even league average. He's weak inside, but he crowds the plate so it's natural to expect that, and a miss inside equals a HBP so he gets on base that way. I don't agree with the philosophy, just stating it was a thing last year.
  19. bean5302
    Yeah. Ober is the biggest starting pitcher development success story in recent years. Berrios was the previous. I was hoping for Winder, but the shoulder pretty much wiped his rotation projection out.
  20. bean5302
    I'll have to defer to the Twins coaching and management on Duran's ability to handle a starter workload, but if they believe he might be able to then yes, I'd like to see him in the rotation. But not mid-year. To me, that's just asking for injury. I'm interested in him in the rotation simply because the upside is enormous, and Duran was only in the bullpen because he was coming back from Tommy John. I saw some comments about his velocity. Guy throws 102 average... if he has to take it all the way down to 99mph to get 6 innings and only reach back for 104 every once in a while, I'm not sure it matters that much. I did want to point a little something out on Canterino. He has not been cleared for 125 innings. His surgeon, Dr. Keith Meister, said 125 innings wasn't out of the question from a medical standpoint. 125 innings should be looked at as absolute ceiling if everything goes perfect throughout the season. Also, there's no guarantee his stuff plays at the MLB level. He was walking 5.77 per 9 innings at AA in 2022. His K rate dropped from 18.43 to 13.11 from A+ to AA and his BB rate skyrocketed from 1.71 to 5.77 at the same time. Generally, gotta throw some strikes at the MLB level.
  21. bean5302
    I do think it's rare superstar players continue to play defensive premium positions when they can no longer handle them. It's just while they're still good at their position, teams aren't interested in moving them for maybes. There are a few instances where teams make genuinely poor baseball decisions to show favoritism to their franchise face (A-Rod at 3rd and Jeter remaining at SS), but I think most players are moved once they're a defensive liability. Kirby Puckett moving to RF instead of CF for example. Not sure how Mookie Betts comes into the conversation, though? In Boston, he wasn't able to displace Red Sox star Dustin Pedroia at 2B so he was moved to RF. After he was traded to the Dodgers, he wouldn't have been home grown talent, and the Dodgers pushed him to 2B because of injuries, and that was Betts' original position. Really, all the speculation on this is about a way to fit Brooks Lee onto the roster with lots of sky high expectations of how great Lee is going to be. I consider Brooks Lee to be comparable to Austin Martin 2 years ago in terms of projection. Fans could slow their roll a bit, haha.
  22. bean5302
    I don't consider Headrick more than MiLB roster filler. A 1.30 WHIP and mid 4's ERA doesn't project well to the MLB level. I wouldn't bat an eye if the Twins DFA'd him.
  23. bean5302
    Teams don't usually push superstar players off their positions, especially home grown face of the franchise style talent. Moving Royce Lewis around the diamond probably doesn't happen until at least next season, and it'll be dependent on a number of other things, I'd think.
  24. bean5302
    Not really. Early on in the season Lewis was getting lucky, but the way he performed later was the real deal. Lewis hung out at an xwOBA north of .480 for the last 125 or so PA of the season. Ultra elite hitting. As the season progressed, Lewis consistently got better and better.
  25. bean5302
    The biggest question about 2B in 2024 is Julien. How does his sophomore campaign at the MLB level go, how does his defense look? Regardless of whether or not Julien has worked hard on his hitting against lefties, Baldelli has very much loved platooning so I'm not sure Julien will be given a lot of opportunities there. Julien has limited range, and a limited arm, and his swing has a lot of holes in the zone. That said, Julien understands his weak areas at the plate and uses his exceptional plate discipline to maximize his offensive value. I have reservations about what pitchers are going to be able to do with the scouting reports which are undoubtedly going to continue to evolve on Julien. If pitchers aren't able to successfully attack Julien this year, he'll probably solidify himself as a 3-4 WAR second baseman. An equal to the departing Polanco, and a truly valuable MLB player. Lee was drafted because of how polished he was, and his very high baseball IQ. There was a rare high floor type of guy just out of high school. His instincts and fundamentals are excellent, but it's yet to be seen whether or not he'll develop beyond his floor. He was 22 until a few days ago, and he's not on the 40 man roster. There's plenty of time for Lee to develop a little more power, and lift the ball into the air a little more. Lee is an afterthought for me at the moment, and I'd think he's well down on the depth chart. Julien, Farmer, Castro, Martin, Lee. Something like that for 2B, and I don't think the Twins would add Lee to the 40 man and the 26 man to have him ride the bench 1/2 the time. Let's not forget, it wasn't that long ago Austin Martin was considered just as much of a sure thing as people think Lee is right now. Best hit tool in the 2020 draft. excellent plate discipline, athletic enough to potentially play CF or stretch at SS, 5th overall draft selection, but projected to go #1-2 overall. Two years later, Martin was viewed as a probable utility guy.
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