bean5302

5 WAR. As far as I'm concerned, that's a success for Byron Buxton playing almost exclusively in CF. If Buxton is DH'ing, he comes with a pretty low ceiling since he can't get on base. My expectations for Buxton is 70-90 games almost all in CF generating about 4 WAR. Anything over that is icing on the cake. Anything less than that is a huge disappointment.

Me too, but once the Twins signed Margot, Martin was a long shot as it clearly pushed Martin/Castro into an infield only scenario.

If you live in Minnesota and you want to stream Twins games through Amazon... Step 1) Cable TV premium subscription (which includes Bally Sports North). This is required for anybody who lives in Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota, Iowa or part of Wisconsin. Step 2) Ballys Sports North subscription. Step 3) MLB.TV subscription Step 4) Amazon Prime subscription Now you can stream Twins games on Amazon, though if you have a sub to MLB.TV, you don't need Prime. You can use the MLB.TV app, which you also don't need to stream because you could just use the Bally Sports North app, but Twins games are blacked out unless the account is tied to a local cable company where you've got a package carrying Ballys. So yes. The blackout policies and subscription policies requiring people to have a premium cable TV package (which includes Ballys Sports North), blocks out a lot of potential fans.

Kris Bryant & Charlie Blackmon made up over $50MM of their budget last year. Their fans are really outstanding. Consistently great attendance despite poor results so there's a lot of payroll room in the budget.

Ryan's fastball has always been excellent because of his release and it's movement, but the reason the Twins were able to get him for Nelson Cruz was because the rest of Ryan's pitches were borderline offerings at the MLB level. While he's tinkered with adding new pitches, and changing his usage of the pitches he has, none of his offspeed or breaking stuff has been successful at the MLB level for long. For Ryan to take a step forward, he really needs a 2nd plus offering. It doesn't sound like they're super excited about the sinker. The biggest issues with sinkers is even elite versions don't often generate strike outs, and they have a propensity to land in the seats if the pitcher misses their spot. Hopefully, he can find a pitch mix that allows him to add that second legitimate weapon to his arsenal.

Sprain = lesser tear. Tear = greater tear. No matter which way you look at it, Prielipp had some sort of tear in his reconstructed UCL large enough that it wasn't healing sufficiently on its own and it required major surgery to address.

Not to mention it's been widely reported all agreements for Diamond Sports for this year were at least 85% of the previous season putting the Twins TV revenue somewhere between $45.9MM to $54.0MM this year. It's a pretty narrow value, and actual TV contract details are almost never reported publicly so some hint at some sort of conspiracy to not report it isn't reasonable. Also not reported in the article is the Padres were in violation of liquidity rules for MLB. Basically, they had been spending more than they could afford as an ownership group so they were given a directive by MLB to get their financials in order. The Angels are an absolute mess, and most fans and analysts believe the team should rebuild as they don't have a good playoff potential. Not sure those fan bases have a real cause for anger.

The Twins are almost certainly a playoff team, IMHO. Elite bullpen, strong lineup, high floor rotation. In order to make a deep playoff run, the Twins need a higher ceiling rotation. Their current options won't cut it beyond Lopez. That said, we're months away from the trade deadline, and something truly unexpected in terms of development could happen. With the organization once again in a position to "put a boot to the throat", they once again punted. Playoff Rotation FGDC WAR projections Astros - Valdez (3.7), Brown (2.3), Verlander (2.2), Javier (1.7) Yankees - Cole (3.5), Rodon (3.1), Stroman (2.0), Cortes (2.0) Rangers - Eovaldi (2.3), Gray (2.3), Scherzer (2.0), Dunning (1.8) Orioles - Burnes (3.8), Rodriguez (2.6), Kremer (1.8), Bradish (1.3) Mariners - Castillo (3.8), Kirby (3.7), Gilbert (3.0), Miller (1.6) Twins - Lopez (4.1), Ryan (2.8), Ober (2.1), Paddack (2.0) Jays - Gausman (4.4), Bassitt (2.9), Berrios (2.4), Kikuchi (1.9) Rays - Eflin (3.6), Civale (2.0), Baz (1.5), Bradley (1.4) The Twins are pretty middle of the pack in terms of projected top rotation right now, but it also depends on some guys I'm not particularly bullish on so I'm more bearish than the projections here. With Snell and Montgomery still out there, and Snell looking to consider short term offers, it just makes too much sense to me to lock in another front of the rotation option without diving into our top prospects yet again as the season progresses.

I really can't comprehend the hate for Wallner here. There's nothing in his profile from last year suggesting he won't be a great to elite bat moving forward. Almost the entire team sucked at the plate against the Astros in the playoffs. Basically, the entire team was overwhelmed by the atmosphere and they were collectively swinging at junk. Only Lewis & Correa actually forced the Astros pitchers to throw strikes at all if my recollection serves me well. Wallner wasn't some exception. Not sure why the sky isn't falling from the 5-10 PA other Twins players got?

Absolutely Brooks Lee has potential to be a great player, but rankings involve a lot of different assumptions. High floor vs. high ceiling, how close the player is to contributing, etc. There have been holes in Brooks Lee's game. That's absolutely expected. For him to be at the MLB level this year would still be quite fast to the big leagues. I'm going to bring Austin Martin back into this. He was ranked #2 overall for the 2020 draft by MLB, #1 overall by Keith Law, #1 overall by CBS, #3 overall by Fangraphs... you get the idea. After the draft and his first year of playing time, Martin was ranked #12 in all of MLB by Keith Law mid 2021, was consistently top 50 after 2021 (#22 by MLB) and still consistently top 100 (#52 by MLB) after 2022. Did Martin have the potential to be a superstar? For sure! Super elite hit tool. Athletic with plus speed, questionable arm for SS, but viewed as a potential CF fall back. The scouting reports were glowing and Martin destroyed AA level pitching right out of the gate with Toronto. In every way, shape or form, Austin Martin was viewed as good or better than Brooks Lee at the same age. Prospects are just that, and almost all of them have some holes in their games which need to be identified and worked through. Even an eventual MLB Hall of Fame, god level talent like Joe Mauer needed 3 years in the minors. That chart includes top level high schoolers who had 2 years of experience above Lee and it shows: 1.5% of players reached MLB through age 20 5.9% of players reached MLB through age 21 15.6% of players reached MLB through age 22 <--- realistically, Brooks Lee, since he was 22 until last month... 31.1% of players reached MLB by age 23 50.2% of players reached MLB by age 24 67.0% of players reached MLB by age 25

Formerly awkward retirement age actuary hit by bus (always a bus or car, amirite?) at right wing conspiracy convention is isekai'd into a new world as a demon lord. I think I'll pitch that to Amazon. They make a lot of bad choices in terms of shows. Maybe I'll get paid? LOL

I wouldn't think there was any expectation he'd be pitching before mid season at the earliest. He underwent UCL surgery in late July. Every surgery and person who undergoes the process is different, but a second UCL repair can be slower than the first. Maeda had an internal brace in September, 2021 and he wasn't ready for 2023. Ohtani had an internal brace in October, 2023, and while he's hitting, he hasn't even started a throwing program. He's all but completely ruled out for pitching this year. Paddack had his second UCL surgery in May, 2022 and he didn't start throwing off the mound for nearly 14 months afterward. Prielipp has been in Ft. Myers already according to the TD scouting report page, but I'd be surprised to see him progressing much into a throwing program until well after the season starts. I'm sure the Twins are going to be taking him along slowly like they did Royce Lewis last year because of the 2nd ligament tear in a short time. Maybe mid-season? The "internal brace" procedure sure seems to have been sold with an overly rosy view on recovery time recently so I think fans got 6 month time frames into their heads as reasonably possible when it doesn't seem to have truly accelerated the time frame much for pitchers. I'm with you, though. It'd be fun to hear some good news on him.

What makes you think Brooks Lee profiles as a superstar player? Also, the average college draft pick getting to the majors is 3-4 years. Fast is 2-3 years. Brooks Lee is starting his 3rd year and he was over 4 years younger than the average AAA player last year. Somebody posted this spreadsheet. Worth a look. a20-21 debuts are super elite players drafted out of high school. a22-24 debuts are very good players drafted from high school or college. a25 still produces some solid talent. a26+ are mostly roster filler.

I think it's widely accepted the Twins took Desclafani in the Polanco trade because the Mariners didn't want him and didn't want to absorb Polanco's entire price, and it was known at that time that Desclafani may not be ready for the start of the season because of the flexor tendon strain, even if he was optimistic. The Mariners acquired Desclafani as part of their trade with the Giants as San Francisco wanted to shed his contract, and the Mariners were not intending on adding the pitcher to the rotation, instead using him as a long reliever, but when the opportunity arose to shed a little of their cost for what would be a long reliever for them, they found a way to exchange some numbers with the Twins. A lot of fans wanted Varland to get the job in the rotation from the get-go, and moving Desclafani to the 'pen like the Mariners were intending is probably not the end of the world.

Right down the street from me. If I have time, to drop in should I wear like an evil costume befitting my reputation around here? LOL. I could create a poll. Is bean5302 a: A. Crotchety old man/woman. B. Demon lord. C. Angry right wing nut job. D. Awkward actuary E. Other

Some of the possible roster decision players for 26 man. Spring Training OPS, wRC+, BB%, K% Miranda RHB = 1.072, +198, 13.3%, 20.0% (1 option) Larnach LHB = 1.011, +167, 10.0%, 30.0%, (1 option) Martin RHB = .679, +93, 9.1%, 27.3% (3 options) Kirilloff LHB = .641, +66, 4.2%, 20.8% (1 option) Goodrum RHB = .421, +34, 22.2%, 27.8% (Non-Roster, 2 Options) Wallner LHB = .345, +7, 13.6%, 31.8% (2 options) Severino SHB = .054, -71, 0.0%, 53.8% (3 options) Not that Spring Training stats usually have a big impact on team decisions, but just for the sake of curiosity.

What part of his swing isn't under control in your opinion? Wallner stands close to the plate and the type of swing he has isn't going to be successful at generating hard contact on inside edge pitches so he's going to be vulnerable to those if the pitcher can hit their spots. I do think there's some work Wallner might be able to do on pitches down in the zone. He doesn't hit them as well, and he sees a lot of pitches down and away or in. He seems to have inside pitches pretty well handled, but down and away is his biggest K weakness. Up and away/outside edge is an area he can probably swing more and do more damage, but he gets a lot of his walks there already. Overall, Wallner's o-swing rate is already better than MLB average so I'm not sure I expect there's a lot of room for him to make big strides.

Come on now... Most infielders through the Twins MiLB development system had a significant amount of their time spread around the diamond during their development with poor error rates, and it's often the case they see a plug 'n play style defense at the MLB level afterwards. Gordon, Lewis, Polanco, Martin, Escobar, Prato, Severino, Steer, Castro just off the top of my head... It's not hard to find examples of infielders being shifted all over the place. There are various reasons to shift players around, but "positional flexibility" at the MLB level is not a valid one for potential every day players IMHO as it just damages the perceived value of the player on the market and produces a lot of poor defense. Btw, Julien MiLB (18G at LF, 23G at 3B, 167G at 2B, 21G at 1B). Definitely solidified at 2B, but not without playing him all over the field after he was a primary 3B in college. YMMV on your own personal opinions.

Brooks Lee has quite a bit to prove, but some fans are really, really whipped up into a froth about him. Lee didn't hit last year in AAA and he didn't hit from the right side of the plate at all. As for his amazing Spring Training (which means little) .261/.292/.391 OPS .683 isn't impressive, and 1 BB in 24 plate appearances against dubious levels of pitcher competition isn't what I'd want to see. Things Brooks Lee has going for him: Excellent baseball IQ, solid fundamentals, good hit tool, still very young with room to adjust and improve. Things which may prevent Lee from being an every day player in MLB: Below average athleticism, mediocre power, can't hit LHP right now 2023 AAA Level = .731 OPS (wRC+ 78) <--- this is very poor. All levels vs. LHP .603 OPS, .106 ISO, 3.7% BB, 23.9% K <--- can't hit from right side of plate All levels vs. RHP .860 OPS, .207 ISO, 11.4% BB, 14.1% K Austin Martin was absolutely considered a higher ceiling and higher floor than Brooks Lee when the Twins acquired him. Better hit tool. More athletic. Prospects are just that.

The only time I've had somebody intentionally get physical with me or actually verbally assault me was AT&T (now Oracle Park). The Twins were on pace to lose like 100 games at the time and the Giants were en route to the playoffs. I was thinking wtf?... "really? the Twins? that's the team on pace to lose 100 games you've never even played a meaningful game against? that's the team/fanbase you're enraged at?" after I was randomly shoulder checked while walking the concourse back to my seat with some food, and some dude was like "f_____ Twins fans, get out of here!" or something like that. It was a real eye opener as to why fans out there have gone to the E.R. after Bay Area/L.A. sports events. A little fun banter, sure. I've had that at the Pepsi Center following Wild @ Avs games, etc. Never had anybody randomly get legitimately angry or aggressive with me at any of the dozens (if not 100s) of out of town games I've attended over the years. That said, I've been to a few Twins @ Giants games over the years. Nice stadium, great location, overrated food IMHO, and almost universally good experiences.

The history of developing quality defenders, especially under Falvey, is very poor, IMHO. How often do we see a player assigned to essentially a single position where they earn every day reps coming up through the system? It's a rhetorical question since the answer is pretty much never. I read a lot of comments about Julien improving rapidly, and I don't think it's any coincidence the improvement came with practice and repetition at a single position, do you? But how often do the Twins stick with that approach? Almost never. Players are treated as plug-n-play for the most part. I don't think it's a coincidence Twins MiLBs very often put up terrible fielding percentages in the infield compared to their quality prospect peers, either. I'm going to nip this in the bud before people who hate the concept of fielding percentage being valuable... it's incredibly important. A high error rate wipes out any perceived ceiling on a player's defense. Fielding percentage is not generally a great indicator of overall defensive value at the MLB level; however, that's because there is often so little difference in fielding percentage between great or below average that it's not more valuable than range or arm. i.e. Top quartile in MLB for qualified MLB SS ended at .985. 3rd quartile started at .979 in 2023. Over 1200 innings, that's like 2-3 errors. Not nearly as valuable as range or arm. Twins infielders often post fielding percentages near .900 in the minors which is more like a projected difference of 30 errors (that's worth more than 30 OAA for the trendiest metrics folks). Martin's defense improved dramatically in AAA last year when assigned to 2B rather than floating all over the diamond like the Twins had him doing. Again, not a coincidence, but here we are talking about putting him all over the field as a utility player again. How damaging was this to Nick Gordon? How massively did it hurt Eduardo Escobar's trade value in 2018 vs. leaving him at SS? How much has this "flexibility" mindedness stunted the defensive development of players? It's hard to say, but on thing is for certain, too often Twins prospects come to the big show with reputations as inept defenders. While probably a bit grating, I stand by my position this Twins FO has put a premium on quantity (perceived flexibility) over quality (actually any good at playing the position).

Sure seems like HS draft pitchers blow a UCL out like clockwork within a year or two of the draft. Probably contributes to the feeling of wait. If a HS pitcher is going to be good, they generally move fast. Petty will probably stop in for a cup of coffee with the Reds this year if he pitches like he has been. Avg. high school players 4-5 years Avg. college players 3-4 years Fast high school players 2-3 years Fast college players 1-2 years S-Rank HS = Pitcher Brandon Finnegan (93 days) S-Rank College = 1B Nolan Schanuel (40 days), Pitcher Chris Sale (60 days)

I'm not sure how fast Austin Martin really is. I recall Martin's arm and run tool being a 50-55-ish grade, but he's been excellent at stealing bases so he may have better wheels than the grade (or just excellent base running instincts like Dozier had). I'll wait till we get some more reliable metrics on him to categorically say he can cover CF. In any case, it'd be nice to see Martin get some reps if there's a chance he could be a starter. I think he's mostly viewed as a utility guy at this point so I'm not sure designating a position for him is all that important.

Martin was one of the best fielding 2B in the International League last year, and 2B is a plus defensive position where corner OF is a negative.

Yes, the Twins' preference is to have a whole bunch of players bad at playing all positions. I've seen so many comments about how Julien's defense was improving so much last year after consistent play at 2B. That's pretty natural to expect as the old saying goes, practice makes perfect. It even impacts outfielders as they learn to feel comfortable in the position, where the walls are, how far they can run flat out without running into something, how balls travel from the position's perspective.