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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    Canterino - Rotator cuff strain. Started throwing program a couple weeks ago. Prielipp - Continuing rehab from UCL repair. He'd be a longshot to see pitching competitively before August. I wouldn't even expect him to be throwing bullpen sessions prior to next month. Lee - Herniated disc. Rehab plan was 2 months to run through May. Jenkins - Won the Powerball, probably. Retired. We can't have nice things. In all reality, standard hamstring strain. 6/8ish weeks, typically. Puts Jenkins into the very earliest window of maybe we could see him soon. My expectations, anyway.
  2. bean5302
    Is a weak rolling GIDP better than a strikeout? Is a 10% ball vs. 90% strike call better than a 95% strikeout or ground out? That's what Julien is deciding on, and why he's not swinging. The 95% out vs. the 90% chance he'll be out and take another player with him on the GIDP.
  3. bean5302
    Larnach is utterly locked in on fastballs, but unlike in years past, it's almost any type of fastball. Sinkers and cutters are getting hit, too. The split-finger still beats him, and the changeup remains a black hole, but we're still dealing with small sample sizes.
  4. bean5302
    HR/FB rates are not remotely stable at 17 innings pitched and nearly 20% of his "fly balls" have been popups this year. He's a bit of a fly ball pitcher, but so long as he's generating a lot of weak popup batted balls, he'll be fine as a middle reliever, IMHO. The only "large" sample size in a season we have for Alcala is 2021. It started a bit rocky for him, but he was excellent to end the season, allowing only 1 HR over his final 23 appearances.
  5. bean5302
    Julien striking out looking has to do with him understand what he can hit, and what he can't. I think he knows he's better off hoping a corner strike gets called a ball rather than swinging at it and either missing entirely or GIDP. He definitely breaks the mold at the plate.
  6. bean5302
    Agreed. I have no idea what Baldelli is doing right now with the bullpen. It's non-sensical to me.
  7. bean5302
    I suppose I should address the actual data, though, haha. It's a novelty for me right now, but I'm not sure how relevant this data will be. There's getting to be a pretty tall learning curve into baseball analytics for hitters. Compiling all the data into something usable is becoming pretty cumbersome. I wish we had a more accurate (updated) version of SIERA for pitchers.
  8. bean5302
    It depends on what metric you're talking about when it comes to how a reliever will fare. ERA or FIP? Probably not as they vary wildly, based on luck since relievers just don't pile up a lot of innings. Bailey Ober's game 1 performance would ruin a whole season for a reliever who pitches 60 innings a year. 8 ER in 60 innings = 1.20 ERA even if the other 50-60 appearances were all scoreless. Floro's BABIP is .218 this year vs. his career .315 and his xFIP is 3.65 due to his 0.0% HR/FB rate. His 95% strand rate is also completely unsustainable. Lopez's BABIP is .283 this year vs. his career .318 number, and his xFIP is 4.65 also due to his 0.0% HR/FB rate. Lopez also owns a lucky 80% strand rate. They'll both regress a lot.
  9. bean5302
    Kirilloff/Buxton 0/4, they must be hurt! 4/4 next day, 4HR, 5.000 0PS they're back to normal! 2/4 next day, 1.000 OPS, I think they've probably being nagged by something. 0/4, they must be hurt! Rinse, repeat.
  10. bean5302
    Sure. UZR/150 was +3.3 in 2022 when Miranda played 595.1 innings there.
  11. bean5302
    The article talks about the trade turning into a coup... but it really hasn't. It's turned out good, but it took 4 years for the Twins to get any return at all. The trade was always about lottery tickets, and there was a very real risk none of the players AZ gave up would ever step onto the field during an MLB game. The Diamondbacks got a great run out of Escobar in 2018, though his great run down the stretch wasn't able to carry them into the playoffs. Still, AZ was able to extend him on the cheap while he was under team control and they watched Escobar earn a 2019 All Star Game nod. AZ got good value out of EE and out of the trade as well.
  12. bean5302
    I think people are being too hard on Sands. He owned a 0.77 ERA / 2.28 FIP / 2.50 xFIP until 4/25. Believing Sands might finish the year out as the best reliever in baseball after being considered an emergency depth long reliever feels a little stretchy. Sands had a couple clean innings on 5/4 and 5/7. The kind of innings I really love to see. 1-2-3. No base runners and he's sitting at a 3.81 FIP / 3.13 xFIP at the moment. It seems like he's a solid middle innings reliever right now, IMHO. Jay Jackson is the guy I have the least amount of faith in.
  13. bean5302
    25.6 ft/sec sprint speed. He definitely does not have endless range. Right now, Santana sits right behind Christian Encarnacion-Strand in 8th place of 24 1B with 200+ innings in OAA, which is a good indicator of how well he moves. That said, Santana has a very sure glove. Miranda is probably an average, maybe a tick better than average fielder at 1B. Santana's defense will probably net him out 0.2-0.3 WAR over Miranda as a first baseman.
  14. bean5302
    I can't believe nobody has mentioned Jeffers in here. Career = 29.0% K rate 2023 = 27.8% K rate 2024 = 19.3% K rate ...and he's already at 140 plate appearances vs. last year's 335. Not sure if Jeffers has really turned a corner or if we'll see some big regression, but it makes it a lot easier to have more faith in projecting his bat.
  15. bean5302
    Really stretching that last one to try and bolster your position having to take it out to 3 digits, haha. 4.785 vs. 4.800. How about we look at a couple underlying scoring numbers? 2024 vs. 2023. If we went head to head in runs scored for the first 42 games of the season, 2024 would have a slight winning record against 2023 at 17-16-9. Median runs scored. 4 vs. 4 Mode runs scored. 3 vs. 2 This is where the reduction in strikeouts probably plays the biggest role. The rally kill. The most common score from the Twins offense this year is 3 runs (not ideal), but it was only 2 runs in 2023. The 2023 Twins scored 10 or 0. This year, they're much more consistent putting runs on the board.
  16. bean5302
    I wanted Miranda starting at 1B before the Twins signed Carlos Santana, and I hated the signing because A) Santana brings very little ceiling to the table. At best, the Twins can hope for 1.5 WAR from him. B) I thought Miranda was probably a better player than Santana while costing $4.5MM less that could have been used more efficiently. In any case, Santana has been hitting really well over the past 15-20 games or so, and I'm glad to see it.
  17. bean5302
    Did you see that .665 OPS? Joey Gallo hit a lot of home runs last year on his way to rank 2nd on the team, too. Santana will probably finish the year with a near league average bat (probably below league average) while playing the least valuable defensive position in baseball. Compare that to Miranda's .280/.322/.439 OPS .761 wRC+ 118. There is absolutely no GM in baseball who'd pick Santana over Miranda right now.
  18. bean5302
    If Buxton isn't hurt, there's no reason to sit him. Get the games out of him you can when you can. The idea you can rest a guy constantly is just Baldelli trying to re-write his own injury ended career through giving his current players more rest. Not unexpectedly, it hasn't worked out.
  19. bean5302
    Side note, I don't think anybody hates Carlos Santana. Fans hate the fact Falvey decided to bring him in when there were two internal options for 1B who were expected to be as good or better for essentially the league minimum when the Twins were in a payroll crunch.
  20. bean5302
    I'm always amazed by people who start tooting their own horn after a two week hot streak by a guy who's barely been worth a roster spot 3 of the past 4 years and is now 38 years old, especially when the guy still isn't even league average at the plate on the year. For the record, he came in hitting .203/.282/.383 OPS .665 wRC+ 89 at 1B. He's just now cracked positive WAR. Let me know when Santana's numbers get better than Miranda's...
  21. bean5302
    Kyle Farmer last 15 games coming into today: .269/.345/.423 OPS .768 wRC+ 122. 10.3% BB, 20.7% K rate. Horrible start, but he's been solid the past couple weeks.
  22. bean5302
    I thought it was a common opinion Margot was in significant decline, and that it was dubious he'd provide value? It doesn't take some sort of human savant to know Margot had lost a lot of speed or that he was showing a major decline in his defensive value. A quick visit to Fangraphs and BaseballSavant.com reveals those patterns, along with his evaporation of plate discipline, too. He didn't hit lefties for beans last year, either. I think the dead horse has been revisited for a thorough beating at least 2x a week for the past couple of months in regard to the trade, but pretending the acquisition of Margot was a popular move or that it was hard to predict Margot was likely cooked is a new argument I was unaware of.
  23. bean5302
    Baldelli being unable to manage a pitching staff is still his problem. Also, I don't know what game(s) you're referencing? Funderburk's been asked to pitch multiple innings roughly half the time this year. He certainly isn't the last guy standing every game, and I'm not aware of any games where there weren't other options.
  24. bean5302
    Dominant start by Ober, and the best game he's pitched in his career. 0.00 ERA, 0.00 FIP, 0.89 xFIP. 50% K, 0% BB I can't imagine Kirilloff is injured and Baldelli is somehow forcing him out there when there are so few injuries for position players at the moment. I expect Kirilloff is just not the elite bat people wanted him to be, and he's slumping right now. With his limited defensive versatility, Kirilloff is definitely putting himself on the short list to St. Paul when Lewis and Buxton come back.
  25. bean5302
    I'm not too excited about Keirsey right now. He's 27 and his bat has slowly moved forward through the years as his experience has piled on. Last year, he was below average at AAA (Martin was above average) and while this year Keirsey's numbers look better, they're being fueled by an ISO that's pretty wildly out of line with expectations. Honestly, he looks like an Andrew Stevenson type to me. I don't think his floor or ceiling is any higher than Martin's. Stevenson might be a good pinch runner or defensive replacement, but I have my doubts his bat will play.
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