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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    I really thought sign and trade would be a good option for Farmer. I'd also love to know Farmer's thoughts on catching since that's what the Dodgers drafted and coached him to be. Wonder if the Twins considered using him at catcher at all last year? It would be a good strategic choice to bolster Farmer's value in plans to sign/trade later.
  2. bean5302
    I expect Baldelli will give the 37yr old (not 38) Thielbar a pretty heavy load until it looks like he can't handle it. The velocity looks good out of the gate so there's reason to expect he can get the outs. Thielbar will finally be a free agent at the end of the year, and I expect there's a good chance he and the Twins part ways at that point. If he puts together a season like 2022 again, I'm sure he'll get picked up by somebody on a $9MM-ish contract. If it's like 2023, more like $5MM-ish. Either way, it seems highly unlikely the Twins will match Thielbar's first free agency payday. Thielbar is a perfect example of what I really dislike about the free agency rules in MLB. He'll be 38 years old when he first has a chance to reach free agency. I liked the idea of 30 years old or 6 years, whichever is sooner, but it's not really a priority for MLBPA because there's so little value in it for the players as Thielbar is a true rarity. Thielbar would easily have made 10x as much money in his career if he hit free agency at age 30.
  3. bean5302
    27.0 ft/sec was Julien in 2023. 24.4 ft/sec is Julien in 2024 as recorded in SSS There is no universal speed thing. That does not exist. Austin Martin is 28.0 ft/sec this year.
  4. bean5302
    This is exactly the issue. Falvey constructed the roster as if there was still $20-30MM in the budget for the main pieces. The Twins are carrying a $130MM payroll this year. It's in the middle 3rd of baseball, ranking 19th. Given the need for space Santana was unnecessary with Miranda/Kirilloff Polanco should have been moved earlier instead of the typical Falvey do nothing until late in the year strategy, and all the trade partners are gone so the Twins didn't need to take on $7MM of additional contracts they didn't really want/need. Farmer was only acceptable as a sign/trade. Margo was not necessary with Martin/Gordon/Castro That's $22MM right there. Can't blame the Pohlads for Falvey squandering $20MM of capacity. Also, should have moved Kepler for payroll space. That's how you manage a budget. You make tough decisions.
  5. bean5302
    OAA doesn't care about positioning. It only cares how far the player needed to travel to make a play. Top speed is most valuable in a position where the player has to run long distances (center field). A relatively slow player (Carlos Correa) can still be a plus defender in the middle infield with reaction time, acceleration, transition time and throwing velocity. Sprint speed at this time of year doesn't have enough sample size to be super reliable. I doubt Julien is literally one of the slowest players to play MLB this year, and dropping from 27.0 ft/sec to 24.4 ft/sec is unheard of. OAA has some big flaws to be sure, and I would never rely upon it in a vacuum, but combined with other metrics, it can help an analyst get to the bottom of a players defensive skills a little better.
  6. bean5302
    Larnach and Wallner are not in similar spots. Wallner is younger, has more options, and was one of the best hitters in baseball last year. Larnach is older, with fewer options, and far more plate appearances so he's a known quantity as a roughly MLB average or slightly below average hitter. They're in utterly different spots in their career. Larnach is no longer a prospect, is no longer viewed as a potential quality MLB regular, and he no longer has significant trade value of any sort. Baseballtradevalues has Matt Wallner, Brooks Lee, Bailey Ober, and Emmanuel Rodriguez in the same trade value range right now because of Wallner's outstanding 2023 and the upside which comes along with him. Mike Trout has a similar xwOBA heat map as Wallner had in 2023. Wallner does not have a massive hole in his swing, it's an average sized weakness. Virtually every hitter is going to struggle at driving pitches well outside the strike zone where it's more about swing/take than "holes in the swing," and it's totally normal for a hitter to struggle to drive pitches in 3 sections of the 9 section strike zone. There are scouting reports out on how to beat Mike Trout, but it just hasn't worked because of 3 reasons. 1. Trout crushes pitches over a huge amount of the strike zone 2. Trout isn't weak against a bunch of different pitches 3. Trout manages his swing/take well enough. All of those were true for Wallner last year as well, but Wallner's swing/take this year is terrible (not to mention getting the obvious shaft on some calls with an extremely SSS). I brought Mike Trout into this to crush the "hole in the swing" to exploit nonsense. You're right that if Wallner doesn't get out of his own head and stop making such poor swing/take decisions, he won't ever return to 2023 form. I'm all for sending him down to AAA to get his reset in, but there's no reason to believe Wallner won't return to form as a valuable hitter. Gallo is what an exploitable hole in the swing looks like. 6 of 9 strike zone sectors he couldn't hit last year.
  7. bean5302
    Tyler Wells to the IL with right elbow inflammation.
  8. bean5302
    White Sox are going to lose 100+
  9. bean5302
    Virtually every single hitter in MLB has pitch locations they struggle with. Here's Mike Trout, aka best player in all of baseball not connected to PEDs over the past 50 years. (circa 2022). Struggles against pitches high in the zone. That's 4 out of the 9 zones he doesn't drive well. I tossed in Wallner last year, just for funsies... strange. Looks a heck of a lot like Trout in terms of these glaring weaknesses you cite.
  10. bean5302
    This keeps getting posted, but here's Wallner's MiLB/ST career 2019 - First 49 PA (R) .310/.408/.381 OPS .789 wRC+ 129 2020 - First 5 PA (ST) .500/.500/.500 OPS 1.000 wRC+ 262 2021 - First 49 PA (A+) .310/.388/.548 OPS .935 wRC+ 150 2022 - First 4 PA (ST) .333/.500/1.333 OPS 1.833 wRC+ 307 2022 - First 49 PA (AA) .073/.184/.146 OPS .330 wRC+ (20) 2023 - First 33 PA (ST) .207/.303/345 OPS .648 wRC+ 75 2023 - First 49 PA (AAA) .324/.490/.676 OPS 1.165 wRC+ 190 2024 - First 44 PA (ST) .132/.227/.395 OPS .622 wRC+ 59
  11. bean5302
    I don't think they're particularly similar except they play corner OF and they're left handed. Larnach is a 27 year old line drive hitter with moderate game power who's weak against everything other than the 4 seamer or curveball. He's constantly hurt and lacks the athleticism to be a plus value defender, but his excellent baseball IQ/instincts have allowed him to adequately cover LF. He's a career wRC+96 hitter in 693 PA across 3 seasons while never projecting higher than about a 1.5-2.0 WAR full time player. Waller is a 26 year old home run hitting elite power bat with no glaring weaknesses against particular pitches. In 352 PA he owns a wRC+ of 129. While he has far more speed and athleticism than Larnach, Wallner lacks the instincts and has often looked awkward in the outfield. Wallner has proven to be pretty durable, logging over 550-600+ PA the past two seasons between MiLB and MLB. Last year, in 254 PA, he projected as a near All Star caliber producer, a guy in that 3.5 WAR full season range. Basically, a better producer than a typical Max Kepler season.
  12. bean5302
    Bolded numbers are not even emergency depth MLB caliber. 4/15 - 7.20 ERA, 6.02 FIP, 2.82 xFIP, Exit Velo 96.2, 2.20 WHIP, 22.2% K, 0.0% BB 4/9 - 10.80 ERA, 7.82 FIP, 3.77 xFIP, Exit Velo 90.6, 2.00 WHIP, 25.0% K, 12.5% BB 4/2 - 6.75 ERA, 6.72 FIP, 4.19 xFIP, Exit Velo 86.9, 2.00 WHIP, 19.0% K, 9.5% BB Some general guidelines: Upper rotation, Exit Velo 0.0-87.9mph, 0.00-1.10 WHIP, 26.0%+ K, 0.0-6.0% BB Middle rotation, Exit Velo 88.0-89.9mph, 1.11-1.25 WHIP, 20.0%-25.9% K, 6.1%-8.9% BB Back end rotation, Exit Velo 90.0-90.9mph, 1.26-1.35 WHIP, 18.0%-19.9% K, 9.0%-10.5% BB AAAA/Emergency, Exit Velo 91.0-92.9mph, 1.36-1.50 WHIP, 0.0%-17.9% K, 10.6%+ BB Varland has given up a lot of big hits, and he's had real issues with issuing free passes. When he limited the free passes against Baltimore, they destroyed him. He is clearly not looking like an MLB caliber rotation arm. Not even for a depth option.
  13. bean5302
    I'm a big fan of Wallner and I think he has what it takes to be a force at the plate over the long haul, but I think he's lost his confidence. He's had some real BS calls go against him, and he was already struggling to begin with. He honestly looks like a bit like a deer in the headlights sometimes at this point, unable to make decisions. Many good MLB hitters have holes at the plate (I mean, if you're not named Barry Bonds or Mike Trout). Wallner's had 33 pretty sporadic plate appearances thanks to Rocco Baldelli, Platoon Mastermind, but Wallner's issues stretch back into Spring Training. Wallner stands practically over the top of the plate, which is great for HBP fueled OBP, but lousy for him being able to drive inside pitches. He's missed on a few balls right down the middle, which is not typical for him. That's stuff he always swung at and always punished last year. I'm not sure if he can just back off the friggen plate by 2" and make the inside pitches more into heart of the plate pitches, but I can't imagine it could hurt him. MLB won't wait for him to get his head back on straight and get the short memory skill he needs to acquire, and Baldelli doesn't have any faith in him so he's between a rock and a hard place.
  14. bean5302
    Statistics say Nick Gordon seems to be a perfectly acceptable backup utility infielder/outfielder based on actual results, and he's cheap. The price you want for a backup utility infielder when the team is on a tight budget. Your response "statistics, logics, facts, and reason do not matter to me because they do not match my opinion!"
  15. bean5302
    With Buxton being a streaky hitter and SSS issues from being injured, he's going to put up some big numbers some seasons. I think his line from 2019-2024 current is probably a pretty good picture of who Buxton is at the plate. 1463 PA, 7.1% BB, 28.0% K, .244/.308/.520 OPS .828 wRC+ 123. Still a very valuable player. When he's not putting up MVP caliber numbers, I think people assume it's because he's hurt or he's slumping or whatever. He's just not an MVP caliber hitter because he doesn't get on base. He's 30 years old, starting his decline, and in his 10th MLB season. In any case, Buxton's full NTC expires at the end of 2026. It may be interesting to see what happens at that point.
  16. bean5302
    I just can't grasp the mind-bending confidence fans have in Levi Michael... I mean, Brooks Lee.
  17. bean5302
    Falvey's front office was given a budget, he squandered it. There were a lot of options to shore up the rotation on the cheap this year, and there were much better bats than Santana available as well. Can't hold the ownership responsible for a front office which can't budget appropriately. Payroll vs. attendance. 2022 - $149MM (16th), 22.2k/game (20th) 2023 - $156MM (16th), 24.3k/game (19th) 2024 - $130MM (19th), 22.4k/game (23rd) Attendance has been similar to 2001-2004 at the Metrodome. The Twins had the 2nd least expensive average ticket price in baseball last year. The Twins had Kepler, Farmer, Polanco and Vazquez to potentially cut payroll and make room for new players. If the front office has to move prospects along with the players to improve the roster, then that's on the ownership. It's the front office's job to try and be competitive with the budget they're given. The 2024 Twins payroll is higher than several of the playoff teams from 2023: Orioles, Rays, Marlins, Diamondbacks, and Brewers. The front office was given a sufficient payroll to be compete, and a payroll rank once again higher than attendance rank.
  18. bean5302
    Really? Why was the he opening day 2B for the Twins last year? Graded out neutral at SS/2B for his career. OAA, UZR/150, whatever metric you like.
  19. bean5302
    I don't think they do/will. If Varland gets bumped, it's because he's not effective as an MLB starter. No reason to keep him stretched out with Sands, Headrick, and Dobnak (pitching well so far) in the system.
  20. bean5302
    Note: Bailey Ober #1 starter last year would have been legit for a short period... if Maeda wasn't in the rotation as well. Ober vs. Maeda (after IL) last 6 starts through 7/24/23 2.92 ERA, 3.63 FIP, 4.20 xFIP Ober vs. 2.48 ERA, 2.77 FIP, 3.34 xFIP Maeda
  21. bean5302
    I absolutely agree with @jorgenswest. I'd have kept Gordon over Farmer/Margot and it's not remotely close. Gordon's batted ball profile suggested he certainly wasn't great in the SSS, but he was quite unlucky in his brief 2023 stint. wRC+ 119 is just about exactly where Gordon was in 2022 (111). Saving $9MM by keeping Gordon + Martin on the opening day roster vs. Farmer + Margot takes a big chunk out of the cost of improving the rotation, and that's how the front office should have been handling the budget crunch, IMHO. Gordon seems to be at least adequate as a utility guy with a league minimum salary.
  22. bean5302
    Probably at least through June.
  23. bean5302
    Castro owned a wRC+ around 110 last year and had adequate IF defense. Not sure his bat will show back up this year, but there's reason to be optimistic it'll come around. Farmer is a league average hitter with adequate defense. He was brought in to be the Twins starting SS last year, and his track record of adequate 1.5-2.0 full season WAR is long.
  24. bean5302
    Nope. That's why Martin, Farmer, Castro, Severino, Miranda, Kirilloff, and Julien are on the 40 man roster. Even Prato is probably higher on the depth chart for a short stint than Lee. It would have taken 3 major (60 day IL) injuries to see Lee, assuming Lee wasn't also hurt and was actually hitting well at AAA for a change. Considering Correa, and Lewis are on the 10 day IL, absolutely no impact to starting the clock on a guy with a wRC+ of 78 at AAA last year.
  25. bean5302
    I just saw this so I voted for "None of the above." They should just wait for the injuries to take care of the problem... LOL
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