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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    I did joke with a Twins staffer they should have done "Purr at the park" as the fans would definitely be entertained by the security staff herding 20 cats around the field, haha
  2. bean5302
    I don't think it matters whether or not Larnach has an option for the Twins. He's getting an opportunity, but the length of that opportunity probably depends on how Wallner continues to hit at AAA. Larnach's going to do all he can to convince the Twins (or another team) that Trevor can be a legitimate MLB outfielder, but it's probably going to depend on Wallner rather than Larnach himself. Larnach is like a 95% known quantity. Crushes fastballs, struggles against most breaking pitches and can't handle changeups. He's 27 now, but he'll probably get about 100 PA before he has to worry about anything at this point. If Wallner doesn't rake for 20 games or so, I can't see the Twins making a move as Larnach is viewed as a depth/IL replacement guy at this point, and Wallner is still viewed as a prospect the Twins will invest in AAA correction time.
  3. bean5302
    Affordability has a lot to do with who the Twins trade off the roster. There are always going to be concessions. Vazquez, Polanco, Farmer, Kepler. That's $40MM. How the Twins handle that is up to them. JDM cost $4.5MM this year, and while I do think it would have cost more to sign him a bit earlier, probably not much. https://www.twinkietown.com/2023/11/5/23948211/bean5302s-twinkietown-off-season-plan That's what I suggested on Twinkietown on Nov 5. Obviously, Snell decided he was going to get $200MM so he was a non-starter... heh. There were plenty of starters who the Twins could have grabbed in that $25MM AAV range, though. I wanted to rely upon Kirilloff as a potential LFer and acquire Jarren Duran from the Red Sox to provide an every day OF who could cover CF.
  4. bean5302
    We're 100% in agreement. Betting on veterans who are #4-5 types means they're literally one step back from being guys you don't want in the rotation at all. I've been beating the drum for years and years on this point. Even if you're overpaying for a guy you signed at $20MM AAV hoping for a 3.50 ERA and they regress to a 3.90 ERA, they're still a guy you want in the rotation and probably in the playoffs as your #3. There's still huge value in that. Same kind of point on utility guys or platoon only guys. That's luxury spending if you have the budget. They're not the guys you should be counting on to add value. They're guys who tread water for you while the contributors are on the IL.
  5. bean5302
    Yep. The Twins needed a top end rotation arm, a solid every day OF who could play CF and a big RH bat. They got none of it because Falvey couldn't bring himself to stop chasing all the cheap shiny things like he always does.
  6. bean5302
    The problem with going with the hot hand means you're just playing a game of craps. The hot hand last start in AAA might mean they're the cold hand "this" start when you call them up, haha.
  7. bean5302
    It was fun at the game last night. Truly beautiful Spring baseball night at the game, seats were dry, didn't notice any rain at all. Temps never dropped much despite it being expected to end in the mid 50s. End of game time was 60*, start was like 64*. I'd like to see the offense string together hits like this on a regular basis. Seeing so many hits was exciting, and though the crowd was meager, you could tell they were excited to see solid baseball making the game feel more electric than it was.
  8. bean5302
    The Twins are in quite the crunch. If Kepler blows the doors off the season like he did in the last half of 2023, Kepler is going to get 3yrs at probably $15-20 AAV. Normal Kepler will just get fewer years, but the AAV won't drop below $10-12MM. Bad Kepler is a why would you bring him back? 2025 Correa $37MM - Full NTC Lopez $22MM Buxton $15MM - Full NTC Vazquez $10MM Paddack $7.5MM That's $90MM locked up and guaranteed for the Twins next year in 5 players. Doesn't leave a lot of space if the Twins don't raise payroll. Payroll won't jump unless people go to the games or the Twins land a great TV contract. So far, the Twins have 19.5k per game attendance. 23rd in baseball. The AL Central has become quite the embarrassment to MLB. The weather really hasn't been great so hopefully this shifts a bit. CLE = 21.3k (22nd) MIN = 19.5k (23rd) DET = 16.7k (25th) CHW = 16.1k (26th) KCR = 15.9k (27th)
  9. bean5302
    Of the internal options (which aren't great). Woods-Richardson is probably the best option. Festa = Drew Strotman. Festa cannot throw strikes, and I suspect if he did change his game to try, he'd get destroyed (just like Strotman did). Dobnak has struggled with walks which doesn't bode well for a high contact rate pitcher and he'd have to be added to the 40 man roster. Woods-Richardson has been decent this year in AAA aside from the clunker he threw on 4/7. He's already on the 40 man and his clock is ticking. I'd like the Twins to take a look at Noah Syndergaard as depth. Should be able to scoop him on a MiLB contract. Give him a month or two in the minors to see if they can help him out.
  10. bean5302
    Winder is a reliever at this point. There's absolutely no realistic scenario where I'd view him as a potential starter.
  11. bean5302
    I attended the game last night along with 10,000 other people. Nearly stepped in dog$#!^ on the way in. Dogs have absolutely no place at sporting events or in stadiums. Not sure why dog owners think their pup is actually a short furry human, but I suppose that's the reason 99% of dogs are extremely poorly trained. They were tolerable last night. Some barking, but not bad. Didn't see any accidents, but I wasn't sitting in the dog section.
  12. bean5302
    The Mariners did not want Desclafani, but the Giants needed to purge payroll in order to absorb Robbie Ray. The Mariners had no plans to use Desclafani in the rotation The Mariners didn't want to add to their payroll after making so many offseason transactions. About 29 MLB teams were interested in the Mariners cost controlled rotation arms. There's no doubt the Twins were one of them. I'm sure Seattle pitched Desclafani to all 29 of them, but obviously nobody was interested because he had poor results and has been injured. As a free agent, he was a MiLB contract kinda guy. I just cannot imagine Falvey being so incompetent he actually asked for Desclafani when the Twins did not need another back end rotation arm and there were so many other options going for cheap on the market. But faced with the option of having nobody else interested in Polanco's contract, Falvey accepted Desclafani and cash with the hopes it would work out in the rotation. This to me is the most likely scenario.
  13. bean5302
    Back issues for what seems like so many young players these days. It would have been nice to know more about Lee's issue earlier, but the Twins guard info as if each and every player is a starting NFL quarterback the other teams are prepping for on Sunday. Hopefully, this clears up for Lee. I've never known somebody (and I've known many) people with a disc herniation who never had another problem with it again, but there are times where it doesn't show up for months or a couple years.
  14. bean5302
    From 2020-2024, Carlos Correa's rank is 55th in all of MLB for games played. He's qualified as a hitter every single year and was the only Twins player to qualify last year. He's currently hitting .306/.432/.444 OPS .876 wRC+ 165.
  15. bean5302
    You're creating a strawman and bringing him to a semantics fight. The Twins wanted to shed the 6x redundant Polanco's contract to add to the roster and meet the lower payroll budget they had. The Twins undoubtedly wanted to shed more of Polanco's contract, but Falvey waited too long and had to eat a $4MM Desclafani sandwich served by the Mariners. The net savings for trading Polanco was the $5MM Falvey then used to sign a different, and completely unrelated player they would not have otherwise been able to sign. That's the point. In order to sign people and meet the $25-30MM target reduction in their payroll, Polanco's contract had to be moved to save money.
  16. bean5302
    Levine tried to get "out of here" last year and the Red Sox didn't even want to see him for a 2nd round of interviews. Being GM of the Twins is one of the most coveted jobs in the world, and I bet you'd absolutely desperately seize the opportunity if it were offered to you. I would. Every poster on this site probably has it as a dream job. The Twins are operating at $130MM this year with an estimated $163MM in luxury tax payroll. Right in line with being a mid-market team, consistent with their revenues. Their spending rank has been higher than their attendance rank for like 5 years running. If the Twins were running a payroll of $60 or $80 or even $100MM, you might have a leg to stand on. Instead, they have the 2nd highest payroll in the AL Central and the Pohlad's have green lighted major, if not huge, free agent contracts and expenditures in recent years.
  17. bean5302
    Personally, I think the Polanco trade was for: 1) cutting payroll 2) acquiring something in return I think what the Twins actually got stemmed from: 1) Falvey sitting on his hands far, far too long before making moves rather than being aggressive resulting in the number of potential partners evaporating. 2) Falvey being unable to sell Polanco's value or simply overestimating his value (as he did badly with Buxton in '21) 3) Falvey finally having to settle on a package which was valuable... but not the value the Twins actually needed.
  18. bean5302
    Where Kirilloff was actually deployed is not relevant to your statement or my challenge of its accuracy. What Falvey and Baldelli were on record saying (prior to the season and the acquisition of Santana) is that Kirilloff was no longer viewed as a viable outfielder. He was viewed exclusively as a 1B/DH. I like Kirilloff getting outfield opportunities because I think that's where he'll provide the most value. That said, you thinking the Santana move was to get Kirilloff into the outfield more means you thought both Falvey and Baldelli were lying on record about their planned utilization and view of Kirilloff as a potential outfield option. Quite frankly, if Falvey and Baldelli were lying, that makes Santana's signing even worse, because it means the Twins could have easily and happily parted ways with Kepler by moving Kirilloff to left field.
  19. bean5302
    Agreed. Julien's approach feels about the same, and we're definitely dealing with a SSS given how infrequently Julien makes contact with pitches. His FB rate is double last year at the cost of a big drop off in line drive rate, but I think it's just SSS at only 41 batted balls in play. Personally, I don't think Julien is cut out to be an elite hitter based on his weaknesses, but he can be good.
  20. bean5302
    I don't think I saw anybody mention this, but Varland's 47% strike vs. 53% ball rate isn't going to win any games.
  21. bean5302
    This despite the fact Falvey was vocal that Kirilloff wasn't viewed as a potential outfielder at all?
  22. bean5302
    I don't think it's likely Rodriguez's contact skills will improve much without a big change to his swing. How much his contact rate drops as he gets promoted is debatable. Like Julien, Rodriguez takes a gazillion walks so it's just tough to say what that looks like at the MLB level. There aren't a lot of guys like him.
  23. bean5302
    Varland's "stuff" suggested it would be a stretch for him to be successful in the rotation. He's not been successful, and there's not much to support the idea he can turn it around. If Varland won't make the adjustments necessary because "he's not comfortable" with a pitch, all the more reason to pull the plug and get him back into the 'pen were he was good. The Twins need to hand the ball to Woods-Richardson and they need to look for a veteran depth signing now.
  24. bean5302
    Nick Gordon cost $900k this year. His line is .213/.255/.447 OPS .702, thanks in part to a rough .219 BABIP. His xwOBA suggests he's just about where he should be so probably not a lot of luck involved one way or the other. For $900k, a wRC+ of 89 is perfectly fine. Twins utility players are making $3.5-6.3MM this year. That's luxury spending. Utility guys are the LAST guys you spend money on. I despised the Carlos Santana signing, like truly deeply despised it because I felt Kirilloff/Miranda was a better option. Actually, I felt like Miranda as a full time starter vs. both left/right was a better answer and it would have saved another $4.5MM the Twins needed to put towards a starter or a legit DH. I have nothing against Santana at all, and it'd be great to see him start really hitting because the Twins certainly need the help. Hopefully something clicks with a few guys soon!
  25. bean5302
    It's pretty easy to predict their contributions, though. With a healthy Correa and Lewis on the roster, Farmer and Castro wouldn't have gotten much playing time to contribute in the first place. The Twins rid excess utility players just to bring more back in.
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