Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

bean5302

Verified Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    6,715

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    35

 Content Type 

Profiles

News

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospects Ranking

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

Minnesota Twins Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits

Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Pick Tracker

2026 Minnesota Twins Draft Pick Tracker

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    I watched the last couple of seasons. Ryan comes out, pitches well early, Twins fans lose their minds and declare Ryan an elite playoff starter in the making, then the league adjusts to Ryan's changes. That's what I've seen. First 50% starts vs. Second 50% ERA 2022 - 2.99 vs. 4.14 2023 - 2.98 vs. 6.62
  2. bean5302
    I'm not sure if you're tipping your cap because Falvey hasn't been successful in developing virtually any reliable talent at the MLB level or if you're being serious that it's a good thing the farm system is still hanging in there middle of the pack style? LOL.
  3. bean5302
    The Wallner hate really needs to stop! lol. Seriously, though. In his short 2023, Wallner was as good as Kepler has ever been in his entire career, but Wallner's struggling at the plate right now (like Kepler has done much of his career). Emmanuel Rodriguez, Trevor Larnach, Matt Wallner or a different cheap player will need to fill Kepler's shoes next year. Austin Martin is a 4th outfielder like I suspect Keirsey is. Seriously, though. Saying the Twins shouldn't extend a qualifying offer to Kepler is just good sense, and I don't think anybody "hates" Kepler, just that Kepler is an expensive 2-3 WAR luxury for the Twins, and there are better options given the Twins' payroll limitations. Correa $37MM, Lopez $22MM, Buxton $15MM, Vazquez $10MM, Paddack $7.5MM, Dobnak $3MM. That's $90MM which is guaranteed to be tied up. 2025 status: Ryan Jeffers Arb2 $6MM, Willi Castro Arb 3 $8MM, Bailey Ober Arb 1 $3MM, Joe Ryan Arb 1 $4MM, Griffen Jax Arb 1 $3MM, Jhoan Duran Arb 1 $4MM, Trevor Larnach Arb 1 $3MM that's $31MM more. Plus 15 other players at or close to their salary this year probably another $15MM or so. That's $136MM assuming the Twins cut ties with Thielbar, Farmer, and Kepler. That's the situation the Twins are in right now.
  4. bean5302
    So Teoscar Hernandez's bat is dramatically superior to Kepler's, and so is his durability. Beyond that, Hernandez is a lot more reliable production-wise, but his down year obviously scared some suitors off. Hernandez vs. Kepler average of WAR, wRC+, plate appearances 2021 = 3.9 vs. 2.2, 132 vs. 97, 595 vs. 490 2022 = 2.9 vs. 1.9, 130 vs. 95, 535 vs. 446 2023 = 2.0 vs. 2.9, 105 vs. 124, 678 vs. 493 2024 = 1.6 vs. 1.4, 137 vs. 144, 228 vs. 131 Now, there were predictions Hernandez was going to get as high as 4yrs $80MM because he was better than Kepler by a mile in almost every way, but he ultimately settled for $23.5MM with $8.5MM deferred over 10 years so Hernandez only makes $15.5MM this year. Hernandez was not extended a QO, and that probably would have have reduced his value considerably. Kepler will have to compete directly with Hernandez this year, and a much more robust free agent market for position players this season.
  5. bean5302
    Don't forget about Carlos Santana! I have it on good authority he's a total stud. There was a forum thread gloating about Santana's value and taunting the idiots who didn't think Santana was going to rake this year! Thread was from a couple weeks ago. Oddly silent recently... LOL
  6. bean5302
    I agree. The Twins' situation on trading Kepler could be tenuous and depend on Matt Wallner getting out of his head and relaxing a little, and Trevor Larnach continuing to prove the production this year isn't a fluke.
  7. bean5302
    Festa is probably the most likely to get called up next. There are injuries in the rotation fairly frequently over the year. I don't think Varland has much more leash as a starter in AAA at this point. He's getting shelled down there.
  8. bean5302
    Drafted out of high school 2020 (obviously didn't pitch much) Shoulder strain kept him off the field all 2021 Shoulder tightness showed back up in 2022 which shut him down for early/mid August After that point, the Twins severely limited his innings/pitch count. 2023, started with a 3 inning limit, never pitched more than 54 pitches in a game. 2024, started with a 3 inning limit again, recently pitched 60 pitches. Basically, the Twins are concerned his shoulder won't handle a full workload so they're bringing him along slowly.
  9. bean5302
    Huge Royce Lewis fan here. Easily, EASILY my favorite player on the Twins. The rehab process is going like this: Play in games -> base running -> rest/check in with how his quad is feeling -> fielding. Fielding will put the greatest load on Lewis' quad because of the start, stop, change direction, leap, off balance movement. This is what the trainers and coaches are saving for last, and Lewis will only be cleared to start fielding in games when he demonstrates his quad feels good after hitting well and running the bases hard without any tenderness or tightness the next day or the day after. If you've hit the gym you know day 1, if things are sore then day 2, things will be way more sore. I expect Lewis could join the Twins on their next road trip sometime, but I'd be awfully surprised to see him before that.
  10. bean5302
    I don't think you should let it go. Somebody at the top of the Twins needs to be terminated over this. Maybe the plug gets pulled on Joe Pohlad or maybe it's time for St. Peter to turn in his corner office. The cluster#*@& fans have been handed by the front office and ownership this year has really damaged the organization's reputation. I'm very skeptical I'll have seasons again next year.
  11. bean5302
    I'm not really sure what to make of SWR, and I think it's hard to for probably even the front office to know what to make of him considering the drastic change he's made to his velocity this year. It's clear he's got a very short leash with Rocco, and that might have to do with SWR struggling to repeat his mechanics for 6 years now. There's probably plenty left in the tank to be tinkered with after literally adding 5mph to his fastball this spring, but I just hope his arm doesn't fall off.
  12. bean5302
    I don't see Kepler getting a QO because he'd almost certainly take it. He's going to be operating on 1-2 year contracts going forward due to his oft injured nature, and declining speed and defense and age. Kepler's xwOBA this year is similar to 2022's campaign, but his actual production is on par with last year's so there's reason to expect some regression, but let's assume he keeps up production close to his current level and ends the season at 3.5 WAR. What kind of contract do people think a 32 year old, 3ish WAR caliber right fielder will get? 2-3yrs for $32-40MM is I'd say his limit. $21MM for a single year is almost a no brainer for Max to accept, IMHO. It's also a price the Twins cannot come close to affording.
  13. bean5302
    You're missing the point. In any case, I expect Ryan will turn right back into a pumpkin like he always does. Makes some adjustments, scouting reports lag behind, hitters adapt, Ryan gets destroyed. Rinse, repeat. It is impressive Ryan is able to keep finding magic tricks that work for a couple months, though. I've got zero faith in Ryan ever being more than a back end guy.
  14. bean5302
    Margot is not as good as what teams can find for the league minimum salary or on the waiver wire. I don't think people understand how terrible Margot has been. Nobody pays money for that. If Margot is going to be moved, it'll be through DFA/release. I don't know as Falvey will do it since he hung on to Gallo last year for months and months or terrible results. Margot is the weakest player on the roster, and he's incapable of fulfilling the only role the Twins really needed him to handle.
  15. bean5302
    Julien's line, literally only 13 days ago .228/.342/.433 OPS .781 wRC+ 125. He's had a bad 10 game streak. I'm not a huge advocate or believer in Julien, but a bad 10 games isn't going to get me on board the demotion train. Brooks Lee, OMG!!!!!! Brooks Lee!!!!!! has no business near the Twins' roster until at least after the ASG.
  16. bean5302
    Maybe, but they're probably not as stressed as you might imagine since they churn out more than 1 good pitcher per decade. It's a novel concept in Minnesota.
  17. bean5302
    Scherzer seems like a bull in a china shop based on his reported temper tantrums and lack of professional conduct at the last CBA meetings. I'd expect he probably does things his way. I'd hope veteran pitchers do the same and give Baldelli two fingers from the mound if he's actually calling the pitches.
  18. bean5302
    Taking 2 of 3 from the defending World Series Champions is fine in my book. The recent discussions about whether or not the pitch calling comes from the dugout makes me wonder. If a pitcher just doesn't have a good feel for their pitch and Rocco's spreadsheet says he's supposed to throw it, what happens? Does the pitcher have to throw junk because the spreadsheet says to? Just a random thought. I DON'T have compelling evidence that's really the way it works. It would just be so stupid I refuse to believe it. Also, I think we can officially put the "Pablo Lopez! Cy Young Favorite" stuff to bed for this year again. In any case, I can't put the blame on Lopez alone. The Twins aren't going to win many games scoring 2 runs anyway. I was at the game. Nice attendance, and the crowd was pretty energetic for the stuff the Twins actually did which was exciting. I attended with a friend and their young kids. Very different experience, very little game watching opportunity, haha.
  19. bean5302
    EmRod sounds too much like Nimrod... LOL
  20. bean5302
    and if he finishes the year at wRC+ 90? Negative value on a team with a payroll crunch. See book of Vazquez, chapter Christian.
  21. bean5302
    Festa is beginning to get it done at this point. The strike ratio needs to come up a bit still or he'll struggle at the MLB level, but it feels like he's making the necessary adjustments to fine tune his game, and I'm happy to see it. The first 3 starts to the year looked like the same 'ol, same 'ol from him. After that, Festa really seemed to buckle down on the free pass, but it initially came with hard contact and elevated home runs. It's seeming like he may be making another step forward. The trend is an improving FIP, though his walk rate is still too high overall, and over the past 3 games, he's gotten his home run rate down. Have to watch to see if it continues. First 3 starts. 8.1 innings, 2.16 ERA, 4.44 FIP, 10.80 K/9 (25.6%), 9.72 BB/9 (23.1%), 2.04 WHIP, 0.00 HR/9 Last 7 starts. 30.2 innings, 2.93 ERA, 3.63 FIP, 14.67 K/9 (40.7%), 3.23 BB/9 (8.9%), 1.14 WHIP, 1.47 HR/9 Last 3 starts. 15.0 innings, 1.20 ERA, 2.73 FIP, 13.20 K/9 (38.6%), 3.60 BB/9 (10.5%), 0.93 WHIP, 0.60 HR/9
  22. bean5302
    80 pitches for a guy like Raya is 4-5 innings. He needs to get into the 90s to be able to deliver 5 innings reliably. 2 years ago, the Twins were letting him get to 80, but at least they're letting him out of the 40s, now.
  23. bean5302
    It's a pitchers job to get outs, but if you put the pitcher into a bad spot, they're better off risking a walk than trying to force a risky pitch past an MLB hitter.
  24. bean5302
    Rodriguez (LHB) is raking. .280/.469/.585 OPS 1.054 wRC+ 185 25.6% BB, 28.1% K, .394 BABIP vs. .300/.441/.490 OPS .931 wRC+ 144 19.3% BB, 24.6% K, .393 BABIP (Julien at AA) This is the concern with Rodriguez and continues to be the concern. Feasting on mistake pitches or only pitches in a handful of locations is Julien's MO, and there's a great deal of concern on whether or not Rodriguez's play style will be exposed by pitchers who have a much higher command of their pitches (MLB). If we were to work on a 1-5 scale for stuff, command and control A Ball - 2 stuff, 2 control, 1 command A+ Ball - 3 stuff, 3 control, 1 command AA Ball - 4 stuff, 4 control, 2 command AAA Ball - 4 stuff, 5 control, 3 command MLB Ball - 5 stuff, 5 control, 5 command <--- it's the command that kills guys like Julien/Rodriguez. I'm not sure there's a lot left for Rodriguez to prove in AA anymore. He needs to see more polished pitching. Guys in AAA are generally a step up in terms of locating their pitches, but it's not like Rodriguez has a scouting report book built yet.
  25. bean5302
    So you still need 3 outs per inning so even if you have a crappy 2B who can't turn double plays, it just increases the chance the SS gets an additional chance to field another ball that inning. That would lead to an additional putout or assist for the SS. I can't say how much wiggle room there is in the statistics.
×
×
  • Create New...