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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    You want to talk batting average? How about we take it up a notch and use SLG? His SLG was .452. Every. Single. Team. Every single team in baseball would want Matt Wallner over one of their corner outfield or DH options right now. They may not be frantically coming up with trade offers, but every team would prefer Wallner at least by a small margin over what they have. Dodgers? Yep. They'd happily trade Teoscar to get Wallner. Yankees? Yep. They'd gladly trade Stanton and eat salary to get Wallner. Mets? Yep. All day the RF starter. Red Sox? Absolutely over Yoshida. Even straight up contract neutral at least 20 teams would start Wallner over another player on their roster.
  2. bean5302
    Actually, appearances influence most people's perception of the test of the food. The overall experience has more impact than you think so maybe the food is terrible but the stupid "M" is for Mariners hats have ruined your palate. Maybe the food would taste better without bad uniforms, hahaha
  3. bean5302
    Higher velo = higher stress on the arm. High school kids are now maxing out the radar gun to try and get drafted. Chase Petty hitting 100mph for example. He "threw" 100mph, but even today, his velo at the MLB level was 95-96mph last year and he sat about 94mph in previous MiLB years as I recall. I think expecting 100-120 pitches from pitchers WOULD reduce injury but only because max effort pitching would go out the window as a result. This would have another impact in that movement, deception and more pitch options would grow in importance as hitters would crush lower velo pitches without superior movement. Right now, teams believe there is an advantage in run production from max effort for 5-6 innings, and TJ every 5 years.
  4. bean5302
    Please issue your correction request to fangraphs so they can fix their data.
  5. bean5302
    Wallner had his highest walk rate with high leverage. Wallner had his lowest K rate with high leverage. Wallner had his highest hard hit rate with high leverage. He also owned a .000 BABIP in the whopping 27 at bats he had with "high leverage" last year.
  6. bean5302
    Wallner was wRC+ 124 with runners on base last year. .217/.348/.452 OPS .800. His RBI total is a function of luck and SSS
  7. bean5302
    So are we talking a direct reduction? I didn't have them at 20% to begin with, lol. Going from 2% to 1% is a 50% reduction, but not meaningful hahaha
  8. bean5302
    Hard to hit multi-run home runs when nobody is on base.
  9. bean5302
    Wallner has been the subject of rough takes on this site for a while now. It's not a "make or break" year for a guy who has a career batting line of wRC+ 131 and had a bad year last year but was still wRC+ 114. He's made it. If he declines, he declines, but pretty much every single team in baseball would want him in the lineup.
  10. bean5302
    Lucas Giolito was the one who declined his $19MM mutual option with the Red Sox. As I recall, Boston was going to accept the option. Giolito took a $1.5MM buyout, and he clearly wasn't looking for a 1 year deal. That said, I think he was pretty crazy to opt out as the metrics suggested he was due for a major bout of regression. I think Giolito is now facing the reality of the market being unimpressed with his poor peripherals and large asking price. I don't think I'd take a chance on him. If the Twins are looking to replace Pablo Lopez, they'd need to be trading for a pitcher, and that's going to be awfully expensive in prospect capital at this point. The rest of the team is pretty poorly constructed so this team is unlikely to make the playoffs. The doom and gloom over Lopez is a bit over the top. Lopez is probably a 3.5 WAR pitcher. I expect we have at least a 1.5 WAR pitcher to replace him. So 2 wins over the course of the year, on average.
  11. bean5302
    Lopez has been a good, not great pitcher who is controlled through his age 31 season already. His K rate has plummetted the past 3 years from a high of 10.86 to 8.68 last season. Now add in a UCL reconstruction and likely declining velocity for a pitcher who doesn't have exceptional velocity in the first place. I'm not sure there is incentive for Lopez to take a big discount, either. If there's not a lockout next year and Lopez pitches well, he's probably in line for a 5 year deal. I don't know what the new CBA will look like, but if there is a strike, the Twins just locked Lopez up at pre-strike rates when MLB's revenues (and therefore contracts) will drop by at LEAST 30%. So the Twins lock up Lopez at a super premium rate just for the sake of familiarity? This just doesn't seem like a good fit for either party right now.
  12. bean5302
    What, you don't think it's a great idea to lock up a pitcher coming off a major surgery in their 30s with a new CBA which will likely alter the free agent market and contract environment just because they're good (not great) and they've played on the Twins more than 1 year?
  13. bean5302
    It's true there are starters who begin in the bullpen... but they're in the bullpen because they need to be stretched out or were ineffective as starters as they had to develop additional offerings. They proved the NEED to be in the bullpen. In Johan Santana's case, he was a rule 5 pick who was traded. He needed to stay on the active roster and he was not ready to start. It's widely lamented the Twins didn't move him entirely to starter in 2002 as he maybe wins an additional Cy Young or two and is potentially in the MLB HoF now. Relievers are relievers because they cannot be effective starters.
  14. bean5302
    Just takes one, and I think there's a 95% chance Larnach would be claimed. It's just about the writer's position the Twins could free up some payroll capacity by moving Larnach. He's not a bad player and it's not a bad contract. Josh Bell would be the guy I'd move if I could. No better than Larnach at the plate, but costs even more. Of course, the Twins would almost certainly have to toss in a prospect since the contract projects as underwater at $7MM
  15. bean5302
    So HRs are the forest, and 2B, 3B, and HR combined is the tree? ...and "demonstrated" is now in future tense? ...and demonstrated is not limited to "plus power" in general, but only plus power for one of the worst hitting positions in baseball. ...and ranking 15th of 26 qualified shortstops (42nd percentile) is still considered plus for the position (he's 48th percentile for HR:FB rate for SS) I appreciate there is a little bit of hope left for Brooks Lee because maybe he could start swinging harder more often without losing out on his contact rates, and in theory, that could generate more home runs, but this is a case where you'd be better off just admitting you went off memory and hope rather than data.
  16. bean5302
    In WHAT WORLD does a .133 ISO represent plus power? Bottom quartile. Man, it's hard to take this kind of content seriously. Next thing you know, Austin Martin will be referred to as a slugger.
  17. bean5302
    I watched him from Club Level on the 3rd base side as a season ticket holder in 2024. I watched him play last year as a non-season ticket holder. His defensive problems were glaring.
  18. bean5302
    Has no value. Could just DFA and hope a team claims him?
  19. bean5302
    The team isn't risking its players for an outside event. The WBC is happening because teams are considering it a wash based on the usage rules teams set. Just like the Olympics. Players need to be in basically full game ready state for the WBC at the same timeline they'd normally have for Spring Training games.
  20. bean5302
    Player insurance premiums began skyrocketing due to risk so those kinds of policies became less and less common. Insurer's are no longer willing to take it on. See what's happening with the WBC as an example.
  21. bean5302
    I think DFA type is his player profile. Like Ryan Fitzgerald or Mickey Gasper types. I think the Twins could just as easily replace him with another DFA/waiver wire player who can cover SS or potentially, if Arcia looks better in Spring Training. He's just not a guy the Twins really need to be worried about losing if they have another DFA-type player option. Gray's MiLB shortstop numbers look passable to me (RF/9).
  22. bean5302
    Yes. Strains happen instantly. They are acute. Lopez didn't say he was experiencing pain in the first inning or second inning. It happened at the beginning of the 3rd simulated inning. UCL tears do not slowly evolve over months.
  23. bean5302
    $22MM for nothing this year with a tight $110-115MM cap. Can't have it. Can't risk it. Now we've got to eat it. I can be glad for Lopez he could make it back in time to get himself a big payday on his next contract. If I were him, I'd be 100% in on UCL surgery asap to give me a chance. Best of luck to him on a fast recovery and great 2027... please no cancellation to the season. I'll be rooting for the young guys having some breakout seasons.
  24. bean5302
    Can't fathom how Chafin was picked up on a MiLB contract. My guess is he just pushed for too much for too long this season. Also can't understand how people are negative about this. It's not about ERA. It's ERA, FIP, xFIP, career vs. lefties, career vs. righties. last 2 years ERA 3.69 last 2 years FIP 3.69 last 2 years xFIP 4.00 last 2 years xERA 3.82 last 2 years SIERA 3.87 last 2 years K/9 = 10.60 last 2 years BB/9 = 5.00 last 1 years ERA 2.41 last 1 years FIP 3.51 last 1 years xFIP 3.95 last 1 years xERA 3.44 last 1 years SIERA 4.11 last 1 years K/9 = 9.62 last 1 years BB/9 = 5.08 Career FIP 3.03 vs. lefties and 3.52 vs. righties Like what do people want? He hasn't had less than a 0.4 fWAR season since 2020...
  25. bean5302
    Buxton's pretty quiet in the public eye, but it seems like he's a behind the scenes leader in the clubhouse and on the practice fields. I'm sure his presence carries a special weight to it because he's one of the very few players who looks like he very well could spend his entire career with one team. The comments about the blueprint are interesting. Anthony Rendon got absolutely eviscerated for similar comments in the past, but obviously, Buxton puts an enormous amount of effort into being on the field and he's produced so this will no doubt be seen in a positive light about priorities for people in general.
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