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jkcarew

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Everything posted by jkcarew

  1. jkcarew
    So, currently we're 8 points below the dead-ball era. And we're lower than every era except for the era that resulted in the mound being lowered. (The current game does remind me of 1960's baseball to a degree.) But having said that, this data makes it look like the 70's and 80's were the aberration rather than the norm. Of course, the huge difference is in how the .246 (or .230) BA is achieved. In the past it was achieved with a whole lot of ball-in-play guys...and a healthy minority of strike-out/power guys. Now it's achieved with considerably less diversity in approaches skill/sets. Almost everyone is (or is trying to be) the same player offensively. And that player hasn't been developed to put the ball in play or spray the ball all over the field. He's been trained to 'launch' or walk...and accept the resulting K%. We know why. And it's probably true to say that, regardless of what the modern formula dictated, the shrinking diversity of approaches/skills-sets was going to an inevitable result of the evolution of how kids grow up today and are trained. They don't so much 'play' baseball as much as they are 'trained' at it. Ironically, this is more true the more talented the kid.
  2. jkcarew
    I do think this is a problem...an 'unintended' consequence, if you will, of the sabermetric revolution...although other factors probably in play, as well.
  3. jkcarew
    Yep. Batting Averages are dead, including BA RISP. As bad as the Twins are...everyone else is just as bad (or worse). This is not a trend anymore. It's just the way the game is played now. The modern hitter doesn't try to 'hit the ball where it's pitched' and certainly doesn't have tools for any type of situational hitting. It's 'launch', walk, or K regardless of the game situation. This because the metrics prove the increased HR/XBH (and BB)...over thousands of at-bats...are indisputably worth the increased K's and lower BA. And this is how the player is developed. So, when a single...or even a ball in play...will win a game?...you need to pray for a home run or double off the wall.
  4. jkcarew
    His velocity has been better than expected right from the beginning even when results were poor. I thought he...if used solely in the closer role...would be the Twins no. 1 problem/issue this season. As it turns out, I would have been happy to be correct. But it won't last forever, and we don't need him anymore this season...so, I'm with Thrylos, I hope we sell high.
  5. jkcarew
    With the 2018 season gone, I can agree with the Twins taking these drastic steps to attempt to reclaim an asset. At this point, I don't think the Twins should be in a hurry at all. Whatever those things are that are broken with Miguel, take the time to attempt a rebuild from the ground up with the remainder of this season (and the upcoming off-season). Meanwhile, I wouldn't mind a similar approach with Buxton at this point. Perhaps his challenges are narrower in scope than are Sano's. But there's no value in having a center fielder of any defensively ability that hits like a pitcher. And so far, he hasn't come close to handling the AAA pitching he's seeing. Hopefully that changes. But if July 9 comes around and it hasn't changed, it will be interesting to see the decision.
  6. jkcarew
    Where did I use the term ‘little’ impact? I said overrated. And the reason is primarily that the game is played differently than it used to be. Basically sit around and wait for a couple of walks and a blast. Even today’s managers have said as much. Also, said the impact is still there...primarily revolving around bullpen moves...and that I don’t think the trend is Molly’s friend in that regard.
  7. jkcarew
    You're right. I don't understand. I would have thought home runs are more important than walks in about 99.99 at-bats. I guess I'm really having trouble staying with these advanced metrics.
  8. jkcarew
    Barry Bonds actually proves the point that, within the context of real actual games...with real actual win/loss scenarios...that SLG can be way more important than OBP. He was intentionally given a base 688 times, and pitched around many, many more times than that...all to avoid his SLG...the manager deciding, correctly, that OBP would not hurt him as much as SLG would in those scenarios. Again, within the context of a game, you need both to win consistently. Dexter Fowler 362/421 career OBP/SLG for a 783 OPS. Bo Jackson 309/474 for 783, or Dave Kingman 302/478 for 780. Are there more instances where I'd rather see Fowler come to the plate than Jackson or Kingman. Probably. Are there almost as many at-bats where I'd rather have Jackson or Kingman come to the plate. Yes. This actually gets to sequencing and batting orders, which is a whole 'nuther discussion
  9. jkcarew
    Yes...didn’t get the a ball out of the infield this game. But a walk and only one K. Baby steps...and the toe must feel fine with the SB.
  10. jkcarew
    Yes. We’re talking who has the ability to make a big step up offensively from what they’ve contributed so far this year. It’s most likely Dozier right now...although Morrison and Kepler would be nice, as well.
  11. jkcarew
    I’m guessing it has to do with why they sent him to Fort Myers and not to Rochester. They’re working on the entire process, not just game hitting/results. I see in today’s game he hit two fly balls to right field. Hopefully those were not accidents.
  12. jkcarew
    I agree with earlier poster(s) that insinuate managers impact is overrated in today's game. But that's not to say the impact is non-existent, and I don't think Molly is a good in-game manager. IMO, this was apparent right from the start, and although he's gotten marginally better, he gets outmaneuvered in leverage situations pretty consistently (including instances where our ridiculous roster isn't hamstring him). So, I've always though his chance for being a plus manager would rely on softer skills: a 'whisperer' of sorts in terms of offensive and base-running development and approaches, and performance. I do like his demeanor/professionalism in the dug-out, with umpires, in after-game pressers, etc....and I respect him as a baseball guy. But, if he's not going to be that 'whisperer'...then, well...
  13. jkcarew
    Thanks much, Heezy...related in language even I can understand. The phrase I don't like in your post is "degenerative changes within the tendon". While, it doesn't seem this is going to bother the 19 year-old Lewis much at all (he stole a base last night in the All-Star game)...without surgery, does this make it more likely that a 23-26 year-old Lewis starts to lose his speed 'prematurely'?
  14. jkcarew
    Didn't mean to insinuate luck. Rose didn't drive the ball...he slapped at it. But he put the all in play a ton...and he put the ball in play in the infield a ton. He was very good at it. Without the turf...and we're talking about the old 'carpet on cement' turf at Riverfront in that era (and a few other 'stadiums'...especially in the NL)...his babip probably would have been still a notch lower, and he definitely would've had fewer doubles and triples. It was the same for all the singles/contact guys that had a turf home field in that era.
  15. jkcarew
    We could start a separate thread on this. Which I won't. I think it's great when the award goes to the best player. I'm just saying that that has never been the overriding criteria, and I'm also saying that I have no problem when what you've accomplished with your team weighs in. I have other, non-team sports to look to where the best always gets all the awards, like track, tennis, and golf. Just an opinion.(Also, missing out on Cy Youngs is just one of Santana's problems with his HoF case.)
  16. jkcarew
    Winning will always play a part in evaluating a players career in Baseball...and in Football....and in Basketball, etc., etc. Does it make for some 'unfortunate' outcomes? Yes. But it's better than the alternative where winning isn't considered at all. It's the object of their games, and what all are supposed to be playing for.
  17. jkcarew
    Overrated? That's something not often uttered about prospects ranked in the 60's, 70's, 80's or 90's within their own organization.
  18. jkcarew
    That's funny. But also, not inaccurate. Rose was not good at anything...didn't have a defensive position he was even average at. But he could put the ball in play and slap singles all over the place. Benefited from playing on turf almost his entire career and saw many ordinary ground balls shoot through the infield for singles, and many ordinary singles shoot through the gaps for doubles and triples. Incredibly over-rated in his day...but he what the media wanted a baseball player to look and act like...what with being the first player in history to 'hustle' and all. To be fair, he was a switch hitter and was a better-than-average base-runner...something I don't think we'd be able to say about Arraez.
  19. jkcarew
    I'd go with Trout "could" be looking for his 6th...not "should" be. When you go down that path, you'd need to re-calibrate the award for a whole bunch of seasons in the award's history. The award is named the most Valuable Player...and, historically, the value has been weighted to creating runs leading to wins in a meaningful season for the club. Never in it's history has the award been considered to be the equivalent of a 'Best player' or MoP award. Trout is not the first victim or even the best example (see Ted Williams, 1947...then look at Ted Williams 1941 or Ted Williams 1942). Although Trout might end up being the most frequent example before he's done. If the award was MoP, then we could debate using WAR exclusively to determine the best player
  20. jkcarew
    We tend to think that Hall of Famer's were destined from day one to attain that level. But, at their 21st birthday, there's very little difference between Louis Arraez and Carew. Both are/were left-handed hitting second-basemen with about 1000 PA in the minors; high BA, OBP, and low SLG. Actually, Arraez's numbers just a little bit better than Carew's...(other than speed/range, where Carew was good and Arraez appears to be a non-factor, unfortunately). Of course, the next year, Carew was the AL RoY. While I don't hold out quite those hopes for Arraez, it just goes to show that you never know.
  21. jkcarew
    Lewin Diaz not only makes...but starts...the all-star game? When I read this, I thought maybe I had missed something with regard to Diaz's season so far. But no. He's slashing 208/232/344...at first base, no less. It's a small league, so I'm guessing every other 1B 'qualifier' for the South had been promoted out of the league prior to the game, or injured. The FSL is a pitcher's league...but every TEAM in the league has managed a better OPS than Diaz's 576.
  22. jkcarew
    Thanks for the update. I'm not seeing 'so many' disappointments. On an unrelated note...we should probably add the 4th overall pick in the 2013 draft to the 'other 10 to know'. The story with his year so far is that he's reduced walks and increased strike-outs. Unfortunately, the reduced walks have resulted in more hits and slightly more runs. Remains a work in progress.
  23. jkcarew
    I get tired of the "Sano doesn't care, but Buxton cares" analysis...almost always totally unsubstantiated by anything real...and rationalized by pointing to Sano's weight as either symptomatic of his issues or the outright cause of his issues. Meanwhile is goes without saying that Buxton is doing everything asked of him because...he's fit?...speaks perfect English? We don't know. Besides...other than to inform the approach for the fix, the 'why' is irrelevant. For me, I actually hope they're BOTH more in the immature/stubborn/unprofessional category of 'able but not willing'. Much more recoverable than the 'willing buy not able'. (Note: I realize you are primarily simply sharing what you heard on the radio show.)
  24. jkcarew
    For context...Buxton 2018 OPS+ is 7 (I didn't forget a digit)...Sano's 84. But given Sano's expected role in the lineup, I agree that it's not apples to apples. Having said that, there is no defense at any position that makes an OPS+ of 50 (or 7!) anything other than an unmitigated, negative value, disaster. I think Buxton's road back from his toe should also include some type of extended 'reset' at some level of the minors...presumably a different flavor of reset...but reset just the same.
  25. jkcarew
    I'm sure the plan is to have him work for some period of time...probably an extended period of time...in Fort Myers. Then, if the response and results are as hoped, he'd do some time at Rochester before he comes back. That would be the 2018 scenario. If the response/results are not as hoped, then all bets are off. So Mauer is officially back?
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