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twins_89

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Everything posted by twins_89

  1. twins_89
    The main thing the data on sign stealing does is highlight how out of place Gonzalez's 2017 was with the rest of his career. Gonzalez is a solid and useful player, but the 144 wRC+ and 4.0 fWAR from 2017 are ridiculously out of line with everything else he's done. At this point there is nothing for the Twins to do, he will play out his contract and move on.
  2. twins_89
    If Harper makes the major league roster I'm expecting him to look pretty good for a while (since the National league batters haven't seen him much). I also expect Harper's effectiveness to tail off again as the season progresses and guys figure out his unusual pitch combination.
  3. twins_89
    I'm not willing to give up high end prospects for Musgrove since I don't believe he has all that much upside. I'd take a flier on Archer if the trade cost was low enough (not giving up any of the Twins top 10 prospects).
  4. twins_89
    To me the biggest mistake was the Twins deciding they had to move Santana no matter the return. At the time, I thought the team would have been better off keeping Johan for the season and trying to make a playoff run. Having one season of prime Santana (230 innings and 5.2 fWAR that year) would have been significantly more valuable than the package the Twins got in return (I thought so at the time and I still think this today).
  5. twins_89
    Getting anything more than cash is a win. Good job by the front office to turn a guy with no value before last season into basically a 9th round draft pick.
  6. twins_89
    That would be by far the preferred path, it just looks fairly unlikely to happen at this point in the off-season. I would guess there is a high probability that the Twins will go hard after available starters at the trade deadline.
  7. twins_89
    That's had me somewhat puzzled as well. He's a guy who has demonstrated he can succeed and at 27 there's no age issue to worry about. The fact that he hasn't gotten even a minimal major league deal is concerning. I'd suspect if teams thought there was even a modest chance he could return to his previous level of performance he would have multiple offers for a few million plus heavy incentives.
  8. twins_89
    I'd put the odds of Pineda, Bailey, and Hill all being healthy and effective in the second half as very low. If Walker demonstrates he can be productive, I have little doubt there will be a place for him in the rotation.
  9. twins_89
    The likelihood that the Twins trade for a starter before Spring training is looking pretty remote, so Walker is probably the best case scenario left. We definitely need another capable starter for the first quarter of the season, so Walker would have every opportunity to make the opening day roster. There isn't another playoff caliber team in baseball that has as easy a path to making the rotation.
  10. twins_89
    Personally I'd love to see Romero put back into a starting role, especially if the plan is to use Graterol out of the bullpen. My biggest concern with the current crop of major league ready starters is that for the most part there isn't a lot of upside. Guys like Smeltzer and Dobnak are OK as the 6th-7th options on the depth chart, but I have concerns about how much success they'll have over an extended stretch in the major league rotation. Romero at least has the potential to be more than a 5th starter. During the first stretch of games he started with the Twins he looked dominant and if he could recapture that form there are a lot of available starter innings early in the season. Having a 4th option would be huge since he could shuttle between AAA and the majors as needed.
  11. twins_89
    Two things make this extremely unlikely. First, I see no realistic chance the Twins take on that much additional salary. Second, giving up so much prospect capital while taking back Price is a significant overpay and should be avoided at all costs.
  12. twins_89
    Going into the season with Berrios, Odorizzi, and an aging Bailey seems like a recipe for disaster. If one of those guys has an issue and isn't ready for the start of the season, the Twins would be in extremely dire straits. I just don't believe that free agency is much of an option at this point, the scenarios that make the most sense are trades.
  13. twins_89
    Rooker is not on the 40 man roster, none of the 3 discussed had to be added yet.
  14. twins_89
    I suspect Rosario's time with the Twins is nearing an end, I'm actually a bit surprised he hasn't been traded already. With Cave being a capable placeholder and a pretty good chance at least one of Kirilloff/Larnach will be ready by mid-season, there isn't much reason not to explore moving Eddie.
  15. twins_89
    The only change I can see is that I suspect Romero makes the team over Stashak since Romero is out of options. I'm not sure he'll hold the spot, but he is likely to be given the first shot to earn it.
  16. twins_89
    I think 3B will still be an option for Sano this season if Donaldson misses any significant time, but if Donaldson stays relatively healthy for a year I think Sano is done at third.
  17. twins_89
    I just don't see enough plate appearances for everyone. Cruz is going to get most of the DH at bats this season and Donaldson is likely to primarily be a DH by 2023 (gradually spending more and more time there in 2021 and 2022). I fully expect Sano to be at 1B for the vast majority of his time, meaning the opportunities at 1B/DH are going to be fairly limited through 2023. Larnach/Kirilloff both look to be guys who should be everyday players and it doesn't look like there is going to be 2 everyday spots anytime soon.
  18. twins_89
    It's fairly easy to see the path forward for Lewis and Kirilloff. Lewis becomes the Twins shortstop with Polanco moving to 2nd and Arraez taking over the super utility role from Gonzalez. Kirilloff is highly likely to take Rosario's spot in the outfield with Eddie getting traded. Larnach is the Twins prospect without a clear path and could well be used as a trade chip for a controllable starting pitcher.
  19. twins_89
    Dobnak, Thorpe, and Smeltzer are perfectly fine as the 5-7 starters on the depth chart, but having more than 1 of them in the major league rotation for any significant length of time is a truly bad idea. Graterol only pitched 70 innings last season (and his career high is 100 innings in a year), so expecting him to be a starter seems unrealistic. The Twins absolutely need to add another starter. If that guy can slot in at #2, it would make a huge difference for a rotation that is currently average to slightly below average.
  20. twins_89
    I believe the Twins are at 41 (since Pineda doesn't count until his suspension is over). We'll already have to drop somebody to add Donaldson (my guess is Harper), so I'm doubtful that Hall is interesting enough to drop a second player.
  21. twins_89
    The Twins are now in really good long term shape with respect to their the position players. Garver, Sano, Arraez, Polanco, Donaldson, and Kepler are all under team control through at least 2023 with Buxton around through 2022. With Lewis, Kirilloff, Larnach, and Rooker nearly ready the Twins should have an incredibly strong line-up for the foreseeable future.
  22. twins_89
    I had pretty much given up any hope that the Twins would ever sign a top end free agent. I've never been so happy to be proven wrong. If the Twins manage a trade for a playoff caliber starter, this could quickly turn from the most depressing off-season in memory to the most exciting.
  23. twins_89
    If the Twins had added a legitimate #2 starter in addition to bringing back Odorizzi/Pineda, the Bailey signing would have looked fantastic. Having Bailey as your #3 starter to open the season is a pretty good sign that front office did not do a very good job during the off-season.
  24. twins_89
    I don't care about what was said or expected, I prefer to look at results.The Twins entered the off-season with only a few holes to fill and a truly impressive amount of payroll flexibility and prospect capital. With all that going for them I don't see any convincing argument that the team is even slightly improved over last season. There is still a bit of time to work the trade market, but with no further moves it's really hard to see this off-season as a success.
  25. twins_89
    I look at Hill as a lottery ticket. He'll be 40 this season and coming off a UCL repair operation that is fairly new (and thus the outcome is not as well understood as a full Tommy John replacement). If he can come back and perform anywhere close to what he was before the injury it could be a big boost down the stretch. Unfortunately, I suspect there is an equal chance that he pitches under 5 games before being released. I'm not going to form any expectations or plans until he is back and pitching successfully in the majors.
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