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twins_89

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Everything posted by twins_89

  1. twins_89
    If the Twins are never going to stretch beyond their comfort zone on free agent offers they will never sign a top end free agent. That was true throughout Terry Ryans tenure and has been true so far in the Falvey/Levine regime.
  2. twins_89
    If the Twins don't have the top offer and they aren't willing to budge, I'm not really sure how Falvey thinks they are still in on Donaldson.
  3. twins_89
    My take on Donaldson is that the Twins have the best offer on the table, but he would rather sign with Atlanta. The $110M rumor is probably aimed at the Twins to say if you offer this he'll sign, if not he'll go back to the Braves. It's frustrating that the stare down is likely holding up other moves the Twins might be pursuing.
  4. twins_89
    The White Sox continue to inch closer while the Twins stand still. It would be understandable if we were resource constrained, but that has not been the case. The Twins came into the off-season with few holes to fill and $70M to spend, but with Spring Training about a month away the best case scenario is we will be about the same as last season (that's if our bargain bin starters work out).
  5. twins_89
    Hill is an extreme example of a lottery ticket signing. There is a small chance he returns to form and wins a playoff game for the Twins, but I'd say the odds are massively higher that he never reaches 25 innings pitched and is off the roster by August.
  6. twins_89
    Adding Donaldson would have been enough of an upgrade to justify spending the money, Castellanos really isn't. I have no interest in blocking Rooker or Kirilloff for at a guy who is at best a slightly above average player (on an expensive contract).
  7. twins_89
    I can't see how any fans think the current team is stronger than last season. Without any more additions, I think it highly likely the Twins are a bit worse. If neither Bailey or Hill pan out (a very real possibility), then the team could be significantly worse.
  8. twins_89
    I think it's time to call this the "non-impact" off-season since the team hasn't made a single acquisition that realistically moves the needle. With Donaldson looking like he's signing elsewhere, it's a pretty clear front office failure for anyone hoping to see the Twins field a better team than last season.
  9. twins_89
    I'd say that in the best case scenario the Twins are about the same as last season, but I think it much more likely they are a slightly worse team at this point. If they can make a move for a difference maker like Donaldson or a playoff caliber starting pitcher then yes they would be better, but so far I see no realistic argument that the team has improved.
  10. twins_89
    A huge part of Kepler's value is his outfield defense, taking that away by playing him at 1B would be foolish in the extreme.
  11. twins_89
    I'd give him a $110M guarantee structured as $25M/year for the first 4 years and the 5th year being a $20M team option with a $10M buyout.
  12. twins_89
    There are way too many uncomfortable parallels between the Twins-Indians from last off-season and the White Sox-Twins this off-season. In both off-seasons the central division winner failed to make moves to improve the team and seemed content to coast into the next season. Another similarity is that each had a glaring weakness that went unaddressed, the 2019 Indians hitting and the 2020 Twins starting pitching. In both off-seasons there was also a young up-and-coming team that added some key vets and looked like there was a potential for a breakout season. I'm really hoping that history doesn't repeat, because if it does the Twins could be in more trouble than I'd like.
  13. twins_89
    Coming into the off-season my optimism level was sky high, I truly believed the Twins would make moves that clearly upgraded the team. Now as the calendar turns over into 2020 and Spring training is on the horizon, I look at an off-season where the only additions are limited upside guys on 1-year deals. I fear this is going to be an off-season that will be looked back on with massive regret.
  14. twins_89
    To date, the Twins off-season has replaced Castro, Dyson, Gibson, and Perez with Avila, Clippard, Bailey, and Hill while still having a corner infield hole. It seems that at best we're basically the same as last season with a decent chance of being worse. Coming off a 101 win season and with a huge amount of money to spend this seems like a clear failure for the front office.
  15. twins_89
    With Hill, Pineda, and a soon to be 34 year old Bailey, I'm not overly concerned about the rotation getting too crowded (even if another starter is added through a trade).
  16. twins_89
    Falvey and Levine are the masters of doing the absolute minimum in terms of adding outside talent. They manage to fill holes, but do it in the most uninspiring way possible.
  17. twins_89
    Since Hill isn't expected back until June or July, I'm guessing getting 75 innings out of him might be optimistic.
  18. twins_89
    When Falvey said the Twins were going to target impact pitching I was excited that the team might take a step forward. Now I'm left wondering how things went so disastrously wrong.
  19. twins_89
    Price has 6.2 fwar over the last 3 seasons which equates to just under $20M/year in value. Expecting more from him over his age 34-36 seasons is not realistic, so to even get to neutral value the Red Sox would have to eat at least $36M (and that's assuming no additional drop off due to age). I'm curious to see if Boston is willing to eat enough salary while getting back no real prospects.
  20. twins_89
    I'd rate the off-season to date a 4 out of 10 (a 5 rating would be the team holding about the same from last season and a 4 is being slightly worse). The really sad part is this is the off-season where the team needed to go for it and try to make the jump to legitimate world series contention level. At the moment it seems unlikely the Twins have much chance in any playoff series.
  21. twins_89
    Another consequence of the utter and complete failure on the free agent market is that it puts the Twins in a very poor bargaining position for trades. Other teams will look at the level of desperation and price their starting pitchers accordingly. I'm now waiting to see rumors of teams vastly inflating their asking price when the Twins call about potentially available starters.
  22. twins_89
    The Twins front office does some things really well, like building the organization and managing the floor with small value based moves. The front office, however, has been an unquestionable failure at raising the ceiling through the acquisition of high end talent from outside the organization. Before the start of free agency, this off-season looked like a pretty clear test of what type of front office the Falvey/Levine regime would be, they had a massive amount of payroll to work with, an extremely clear need, and a number of potential "impact" free agents who could help. The fact the team failed to sign anyone of note from outside the organization makes for a sad narrative and dims the hopes of actually winning a playoff series (something that hasn't happened since 2002).
  23. twins_89
    At the moment Thorpe, Dobnak, and Romero (out of options) seem like they have a decent chance to make the opening day roster. I'm also expecting Kirilloff, Graterol, Rooker, and possibly Alcala to be with the Twins by early to mid Summer. I can see Smeltzer, Stashak, Gordon, Raley, Blankenhorn, Colina, Jax, and Jeffers/Rortved getting called up due to injuries at the major league level. A couple of sleeper candidates to get called up are Moran and Clay due to the Twins lack of left handed relief options. Guys who are clearly on the path to the majors and could force their way up early with big numbers include Lewis, Larnach, and Duran.
  24. twins_89
    The Twins front office continues to do well with the peripheral moves, unfortunately they still haven't found much success at completing bigger transactions that actually move the needle.
  25. twins_89
    If more than one of Dobnak/Graterol/Thorpe/Smeltzer are in the rotation to start the season (when Pineda is still on suspension), the Twins could be in big trouble. If three of those guys are in the opening day rotation (which is where we currently are at), it will be a disaster.
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