Tommy Milone: Making A Statement

Its a bummer that the future of this club is hampered by bad contracts like Nolasco.   Sending May down because you "can't" do anything with Nolasco would stink.

Franky, I don't give a rat's rear end what they do with Milone, Pelfrey, or any of the mid-to-back rotation and mop-up relief types. I'm happy they have a surplus of options, but we're treading water until or unless a couple guys with mid-to-front rotation and high-leverage talent emerge. And right now, the viable candidates to fill those roles are laboring in Chattanooga.

Mr. Ryan, make the phone calls please. Tell your fellow GM's you have an over-supply of pitching and need to cull the herd. But sit tight unless some GM gets desperate or temporarily stupid and offers a nice overpay for ANY of these players. But don't get snookered into taking a Sam Fuld type for Milone, OK?

Pelfrey is the one I want pushed out of the rotation if anyone gets pushed. His success is the least likely to be sustained and he's also not going to be part of the team's future. (If he's re-signed next season or god forbid given an extension this season, I'm rage-quitting the Twins. That would be a fireable offense for Terry Ryan.) The only thing that makes me hesitate even a little about that is whether it would reduce the team's ability to flip him for, well, anything when Ervin Santana comes back, but I could live with it.

Gibson and May are both contenders to be in the rotation for the next several years, so we need to see who they are in sustained time at MLB. Gibson needs to add in a few more Ks and bring down the walks to sustain his success, but a) both things are viable for him, and he's got a track record and the grounders to do it.

May has nothing left to prove in AAA but we need to see if he can learn to be more efficient in his early innings finishing off batters and finding ways to get through that 5th & 6th inning to really be a guy they can count on. but he's shown promise this year and is keeping the walks reasonable.

Milone is a nice guy and could be useful as the #5 starter this year. It's great having him as depth this season, and forcing guys to compete for spots and not have people there on scholarship. But I don't see him being a long-term part of this rotation, and I don't think he should push May out of the rotation.

This is likely to go south as soon as he returns to the majors. Sorry. Pelfrey to the bullpen is better, yes, but I wouldn't get too carried away about a few dominant starts in AAA for Milone.

Nevertheless, Milone pitching the same number of starts as May or Pelfrey over the course of the season probably leads to 2-5 more wins if he's at his career average.  Perhaps more in a career year, or if May or Pelfrey completely tank.  

Granted, I've never liked Pelfrey.  I do not know if he actually takes more time to warm up, but I do know that he is in the last year of his contract.  If he ever wants to make major league baseball money again, he better pitch wherever we place him, and he better perform.  I would move Pelfrey to the pen and designate Aaron Thompson who's really struggled of late.  I mean, Pelfrey's about one more bad appearance away from a stint on the DL anyway.
 

Franky, I don't give a rat's rear end what they do with Milone, Pelfrey, or any of the mid-to-back rotation and mop-up relief types. I'm happy they have a surplus of options, but we're treading water until or unless a couple guys with mid-to-front rotation and high-leverage talent emerge. And right now, the viable candidates to fill those roles are laboring in Chattanooga.

 

Mr. Ryan, make the phone calls please. Tell your fellow GM's you have an over-supply of pitching and need to cull the herd. But sit tight unless some GM gets desperate or temporarily stupid and offers a nice overpay for ANY of these players. But don't get snookered into taking a Sam Fuld type for Milone, OK?

Gaining an extra five wins from the bottom of the rotation means just as much as getting an extra five from the front, unless you're talking playoffs.  Getting more production from the back is certainly a lot cheaper, but it also requires making the right choices among a number of similar options.  Which is why this is important to get right.

Regarding those who assume Milone will not be part of the long-term future, Soft-tossing lefties can be very effective and often pitch into their 40's.  I compared Milone to Buehrle in another thread awhile back.  Very similar beginnings to their careers although Buehrle debuted much younger.  If Milone blossoms into a Buehrle or Kenny Rogers, wouldn't we be wise to consider keeping him?  Put another way, if you had to bet actual money on who would be better over the next 5 years: Milone or May, who gets the nod?  

I would hope that they don't send May back to AAA. That is by far the dumbest possible solution.

MLB FIP for Milone:

2012--3.93

2013--4.30

2014--4.69

2015 early--6.33

Whole hell of a lot of the wrong direction there.

For me a AAAA player is one that demonstrably dominates AAA but can never capture anything approaching the same level of success in the majors.  Not a non-factor or a do nothing, but a roleplayer rather than a starter. 

 

I don't see Tommy Milone being able to hold down even a back-end rotation job with his stuff.  A transition to the bullpen might be a far better use of his skill set. 

But how do you explain his relative success at the MLB level?  

Franky, I don't give a rat's rear end what they do with Milone, Pelfrey, or any of the mid-to-back rotation and mop-up relief types. I'm happy they have a surplus of options, but we're treading water until or unless a couple guys with mid-to-front rotation and high-leverage talent emerge. And right now, the viable candidates to fill those roles are laboring in Chattanooga.

 

Mr. Ryan, make the phone calls please. Tell your fellow GM's you have an over-supply of pitching and need to cull the herd. But sit tight unless some GM gets desperate or temporarily stupid and offers a nice overpay for ANY of these players. But don't get snookered into taking a Sam Fuld type for Milone, OK?

"Tell your fellow GM's you have an over-supply of pitching and need to cull the herd."

Haha.  That's about right and it's about to get a whole lot more crowded when Santana returns.  If the Twins sit on their hands and do nothing SOMEONE has to go to the pen or AAA in addition to Milone in order to make room for Ervin.  

At this point it's a wild guess but my vote is Pelfrey.  The guy is downright wild at times, but has been decent this year.  Time to sell and RUN!  We won't get this opportunity again, sell while you still have a chance at getting something for him.  

Hang onto Milone as insurance in case one of the before mentioned guys falters or Santana needs extended spring training time to shake off the rust.  Then the Twins can decide what to do with him at that point as well.     

It's good that he's pitching well, and I do believe Milone is currently one of the best five starters on the 25-man, but...

What is it they say about Meyer? All the stuff in the world will put up impressive numbers at AAA, but major league hitters will feast on him because he doesn't have control. I think the inverse might be true for Milone. He's got the control to dominate at AAA, but he doesn't have the stuff to parlay that domination to the majors.

I remember Kevin Slowey had eye-popping AAA numbers as well...

Spot on.   Geez Chief, you're already on your game, at what?  5:28 AM?