Buyers or Sellers: Lessons Learned From the 2017 Trade Deadline

The Question I have is are the Twins in a better situation than when the this Front Office took over?

IMO- the major league roster is better, but the minors is worse (comparing the top 20 now to when they took over)

I would say no if the talk is about rebuilding and/or starting over, My thoughts are they need to get very creative this deadline trade away some guys and trade for other guys (meaning younger controllable guys for prospects).

Being a Hulu guy, I have very little interest in a rebuilding team the next few years, and probably the wrong time for Ballys to talk about charging additional money to watch a rebuilding team.

In contrast to some of the previous commenters, in my opinion, it is WAY too early to be criticizing the returns from the 2018 trades. When trading for prospects, the value received in the trade is the SIX years worth of contributions after the prospects reach the majors. At this point, only a few of the 2018 prospects have made the majors, and even then they have only been on the major league roster for a year or two. We'll know the true value of the trades in another ~8 years from now.

20 minutes ago, Dman said:

Draft pitching early and often this year.  Try and get college arms who can supplement what you have on the farm in case those arms fail.  You have young hitting right now in Kirilloff, Larnach, Arraez, Polanco, Kepler, Gordon with Miranda and Rooker in the wings and Maybe Steer not far behind.  Focus on pitching, pitching, pitching at all times.  Anything they can do to get arms around the AA level to supplement what they have now would be helpful.  Those that don't look cut out to start move to the pen.  I think if they do that they can be a better team in 2023 and 2024. Maybe even a team that can win a playoff game. 

I would like to see something like 12 pitchers / 3 CF / 3 SS / 2C.  Of course, subject to a tweak if they fair well between now and the trade deadline.

2 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'd like to see no corner OF / 1B in round 1-3........But yes, my preference is SS and pitching. 

I call and raise you to the 1st 5 rounds.  You in?

12 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'd be ok if we saw none this year, frankly. 

Me too.  SS and a couple CFs with mad athleticism and the potential for power.  

I think they better go with whoever they think can make an impact.

They draft 26, 36 and 61. Since 1965 the best pitcher ever drafted in the 26th spot is Dan Plesac. There are three others with a positive career WAR (Jeremy Bonderman, Kelly Wunsch and Bryan Morris). On the brighter side Randy Johnson was drafted in the 36th slot. He is one of just three players with more than 10 career WAR from the 36th spot. Jesse Crain is the 4th ranked player picked at 61. 

It is really hard to draft well outside of the first few picks. I don't think they would be wise to narrow their chances even more by restricting themselves to pitchers, shortstops and centerfielders.

13 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

I think they better go with whoever they think can make an impact.

They draft 26, 36 and 61. Since 1965 the best pitcher ever drafted in the 26th spot is Dan Plesac. There are three others with a positive career WAR (Jeremy Bonderman, Kelly Wunsch and Bryan Morris). On the brighter side Randy Johnson was drafted in the 36th slot. He is one of just three players with more than 10 career WAR from the 36th spot. Jesse Crain is the 4th ranked player picked at 61. 

It is really hard to draft well outside of the first few picks. I don't think they would be wise to narrow their chances even more by restricting themselves to pitchers, shortstops and centerfielders.

I also had catchers.  So we are staying away from corner OFers and 2B.  Of course, a lot of guys drafted at SS end up at 2B

42 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

I also had catchers.  So we are staying away from corner OFers and 2B.  Of course, a lot of guys drafted at SS end up at 2B

Fair enough. So basically you wouldn't pick Kirilloff or Larnach or Sabato but would go with a pitcher or someone who will stay up the middle. I wouldn't limit myself.

I'm not in favor of trading anyone who can help in 2022, with the exception of Sano, Donaldson, who's $ can be spent elsewhere, and possibly Duffy.

I agree this team is already drawing flies and has TV distribution issues. Trading Berrios/Buxton and waving the white flag on 2022 (which might occur after a lock-out) and you may lose a huge chunk of fans you never get back.

They need to move the obvious pieces. Cruz, Pineda, Simmons and Robles and reload for next year.

3 hours ago, Otto von Ballpark said:

 

And when a guy does well, who do you credit -- the drafter or the developer?

Here's a Twins top 20 prospect list just before the new FO took over:

https://www.minorleagueball.com/2016/11/8/13555840/minnesota-twins-top-20-prospects-for-2017

 

Wow that's a good point. Falvey inherited a BARREN farm system. I count two players (Kirilloff and Garver) out of the top 20 who are likely to get through arbitration with the Twins... ouch 

11 hours ago, SteelDodo said:

Wow that's a good point. Falvey inherited a BARREN farm system. I count two players (Kirilloff and Garver) out of the top 20 who are likely to get through arbitration with the Twins... ouch 

Barren? The 2016 top prospects were Buxton (two time top 20 MVP), Berrios (two time all star), Kepler, Gordon, Jay and Polanco (top 15 MVP and all star).

You also didn't mention Graterol, Ynoa, Javer, Wade, Diaz (who they flipped), Thorpe, Rortvedt, Arraez, Baddoo, Balazovic,

Do those not guys not count? On top that they were give Sano (who was rookie of year two years prior and an all-start their first year) and Rosario who has twice finished in the top 20 in MVP voting.

I get it if you look at the 2017  prospects and ignore the players that just came up or recently came up to think they were give a Barren Farm system (I will say many on here thought Romero was going to be a number 1 or 2 starter, Gonzo would fill in the back of the rotation, Mejia might be a 3 but probably a number 4 starter, and at worst Jay was going to be a shut down reliever), but to see the whole picture don't you have to look at they upside of the young guys and controllable years they were given?

After last nights beatdown (yes, I'm losing faith that this team can stay afloat) I was just thinking about something...I wonder what the demographic is on this site as to age? Its not a dumb question. The older one gets (or is...in my case) how willing or unwilling is that person to simply 'throw away' 2 or 3 seasons, like they were nothing? If one is young and has all the time in the world, does that in any way influence their thinking? Do they feel that its fine to just blow up, trade away, take chances on never tested prospects with the idea that maybe some will stick to the wall and create a winner years down the road?

Remember the Cubs mantra or the Brooklyn Dodgers (well most here may not have been alive when the Dodgers were in Brooklyn) ...'wait'll next year' was the cry after another failed season. Sometimes there isn't a next year....when the Expos were stolen out from under me, suddenly there was no next year to look forward to. The Nationals hardly compensate...in fact I can't stand them.

Anyway, I often wonder if age influences the way we think about our teams?

As for age Earl Battey is still my favorite player and I do not want the Twins to throw away the next three years.

In order for this small to mid market team to achieve success an truly contend for a World Series they will need inexpensive team controlled pitching. Pitching is too expensive to build through free agency. 

I think I they throw away next year and delay that pursuit by signing more Hill’s and Happ’s and Colome’s and Robles’. I acknowledge that they would need those types of signings to be competitive but I want a team that contends. 

My plan would be to sell off everything. Many of those pieces are not going to get a top prospect and we will need to rely on the front office to identify those middling to unknown prospects as Falvey’s Cleveland team did. Now is the time to trade anyone not under control in 2023. Buxton and Berrios are the exceptions as I would pay up to extend them.

I am not throwing away 2022 but using it to begin laying the foundation for the future. The Twins opened this last window without a foundation of starting pitching and instead patched with annual free agent patches. The window closed abruptly without that foundation. It was fun while it lasted but time to acknowledge that it has closed.

30 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

You're right about that although it does save the remainder if their salary for the season (except for Shoemaker). Hopefully that will help ownership commit the dollars necessary to keep Berrios, Buxton and Rogers for the next 3 years. To ge clear, my approach would be to trade these guys, use the Donaldson/Kepler money to sign Berrios (20-23m) and part of Buxton (the remaining 7-10m). We then promote internally rather than use FA to fill out next year, and use the FA/last year money we spent for this year (roughly $36 between Simmons, Pineda, Happ, Colome, and Robles) for the rest of Buxton (10-13m), and Rogers (8/9m). That should leave 14-17m for a mid-rotation FA starting pitcher and keep payroll flat. Increase payroll by 12m and we can keep Cruz, which I would like to do to stabilize the lineup. 

Internally, Gordon, Arraez, Polanco, and Miranda cover the middle infield and 3B, Larnach, Buxton, Kiriloff, Refsnyder, and a now minor leaguer (Celestino or de la Trinidad) the OF, Sano/Garver 1B, Jeffers/Garver/Rotvedt C. Hamilton/Cano/Moran/Vasquez/Stashak/Thorpe/Smeltzer fill out the bullpen behind the 4 we keep. The rotation still is an issue with Berrios, Maeda, 14-18m FA, followed by some combination of Dobnak, Ober, Jax, Duran, Winder, Sands, Smeltzer and Thorpe. Frankly, I think thats a better team than the current one for the same price, and one thats more fun to watch. And that assumes the trades don’t get us a MLB ready prospect. 

My view is that engaging in a significant sell off of veteran talent by August 1 does not have to mean a complete rebuild next year. If we follow this kind of a blueprint, we can still field the competitive team next year with a good future beyond next year. The rest of this year will be pretty painful to watch But at least we can use the latter half of the season as development time to give us a running start toward 2022 and 2023.

This all makes sense if you can extend Berrios / Buxton on reasonable deals.  Unreasonable (overpays) are not a great formula to building a contender, especially when one of the players is prone to injury.  So, what do you do if Berrios wont sign for less than 6/160 and Buxton wants 6/180 or whatever number you deem to be a significant overpay?  Do you just pay an insane number?  Do you gamble you can sign them when they hit free agency.  For me these answers have as much to do with what is offered for them.  Walking away from Pearson (or similar) + another decent prospect as well as the same kind of return for Buxton is very likely a huge mistake if you can't resign Berrios / Buxton when they hit free agency.

One thing to remember tearing it down is no guarantee of future success.  Everyone remembers the times it works and forgets about the times that it results in losing for a decade. 

43 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

I agree with this entirely. I’ve said on other posts that the most important decision is to decide whether or not you can re-sign Berrios and Buxton for something that makes sense. Having said that, I would be willing to do a slight overpay for both because I think they are the two most critical pieces on the roster if we want to be contenders in the next 2 to 4 years. I think the alternative if you can’t re-sign those two is to go with the tear down and rebuild route. I think what I outlined still makes sense if you go for the tear down and rebuild except that you probably trade Rogers since he should bring a good return and will be older by the time you’re ready to contend again. Same goes double for Nelson Cruz. I think the rest of it works regardless of whether this is a reload or a rebuild.

With all of that said, I don’t think this month is the time you have to make that decision unless you find out for sure that re-signing those two is just not going to be an option. I think the better time to make the trade is in the off-season anyway because I think we will get a better return and that gives us time to actually try to negotiate the deal. I do agree though, that before the start of next season you need to have a firm decision  made on resigning Berrios, Buxton and Rodgers.

I am sincerely interested to hear your perspective on why the return would be better in the off-season.  Obviously, there are more suitors.  However, if we were in contention this year and expected to be in contention next year, would you find more value in having Berrios or someone like him for this year’s playoff run as well as the entirety of next season or just next season?  While I appreciate the value in demand, I think personnel decisions have become much more sophisticated in terms of value proposition.  In other words, demand will not drive price much beyond the perceived value proposition.  Obviously, demand pushes price to a degree but I think the best POTENTIAL return is this deadline while fully acknowledging the right deal might not exist with a limited number of interested teams.