You’re not a GM. You Shouldn’t Want to Trade Ryan Jeffers.

41 minutes ago, IndianaTwin said:

@chpettit19, this comment may actually be better for another post, since it's not really Jeffers-specific, but it sorta is, so I'll put it here. 

I've been smackdab with you on a lot of your posts, but you've had several where you've named a preference for trading both Jeffers and Ryan under the premise that 2027 doesn't seem promising. I'm curious on your thought process on that. (And to show my bias, I lean toward keeping Jeffers for reasons that are mostly beyond this post, but am really interested in keeping Ryan, believing that 2027 actually does shape up well.)

I start from the premise of saying the Twins were 26-28 through the first third. They will be either 28-26 or 27-27 for the second third after Tuesday's game. I'd love to see them go on a run, but if they match those, they will be essentially an 81-win team. 

I'm not sure your definition of competitive, but in one of the strands, people (I don't remember if it was you) were using something like 90 wins. Is that a fair take for this exercise?

So as I think about whether the Twins can nine games better next year, it seems pretty feasible. 

Lopez is an add, so a rotation would start with Lopez/Ryan/Bradley. Particularly when you consider that Bradley starts the year with a strong season under his belt, adding Lopez makes that trio a much better front half of the rotation than they've had this year. Then, when you consider some level of success from Matthews, Prielipp, the snippet from Abel, maybe even Rojas if they decide to/need to keep him as a starter, and that all of these guys are younger than average and would be a year more experienced, it feels like the back end of the rotation should also be stronger than it has been this year. This doesn't take into account that Lopez's injury has made Ober the de facto No. 3 starter this year, whereas a Lopez return slides Ober to No. 4 at best. 

In the bullpen, much has been written about how bad/inexperienced they were at the beginning of the year. In a bunch of articles, I've applauded their approach of churning through bodies this year. I've had a hope that they will essentially identify one body per month that they can pencil in as an expected contributor for next year. So far, I've got Gomez, Morris, I would say Banda and Rojas if they go the pen route with him. Funderburk hasn't been up all year, Sands just came back and the first couple outings from Nance have looked promising. There's two more months left. If they can get another two to "count on status" and enter the offseason with as many as six solid relievers, that's a far cry from entering the season with what we did this year. 

I'm not going to go through the offense position by position, but it seems the net is that it would be better next year, even with just the internal folks. Buxton is the only real stud and returns. I keep thinking that Clemens is going to turn into a pumpkin, but the dadgum guy keeps performing. The current Lee at 3B seems substantially better than the Lee that started the year at SS. The current Lewis at 1b seems substantially better than the Lewis who started the year at 3B. It feels like I could make similar statements about others. And then it seems likely (or at least very feasible) that somewhere between Jenkins, Culpepper and others there will be some level of addition from rookies. The sum of the parts seems better than what the sum of the parts has been this year. And that's using a current offense that's somehow the AL leader in runs scored, so it's not starting from a bad spot.

A note on losses. At this point, I see Bell as the only known loss among contributors on the offensive side of the ball. I'm putting an asterisk on Jeffers. I think it's at least 80 percent that he's gone, but my personal preference is to hang on to Jeffers through the deadline and offer him a QO. I don't think he would take it, because I think he'll easily get at least 3/$60M or 4/$72M. But if he does take it, I don't feel bad about what might be a slight overpay on a one-year deal and they'd enter the offseason in a good spot.

As I said, I think it's most likely Jeffers is gone, so for the sake of this conversation, let's assume that. But I think Bell is easily replaceable internally, so losing Jeffers would leave catcher as the only known setback among the positions.

I think that even with no moves, there would be an improvement over this year's 81 wins. Enough to get to 90? I'm not sure, but perhaps.

You've said, "as currently constructed," so let's leave it there. But it seems like that's a roster that doesn't have huge holes to fill. Even with six or so knowns in the bullpen, I'd love to see additions there. I don't have a specific position in mind, but I'd love to see them add a bat that they could count on being the level of this year's Larnach.

Tom Pohlad has again made comments about spending and wanting to be competitive. I commented in another post yesterday that while much of TD is going to discount (or ignore or disparage) anything he says, I take him at least somewhat at his word. He's been smart enough to say the right things in terms of PR regarding recognizing the frustration of fans, yadda, yadda. I think he's smart enough to know that making the kind of statements he's made recently and then not following through would be an even bigger PR disaster than he inherited. 

So again, I've really liked your posts, but I've been curious on where you see things differently.   

        

I don't have huge disagreements with this. It's all matters of degree. 

90 wins is as good a mark as any for a goal in being actually competitive. 

With those 2 things in mind, here's where I'm at on some things.

Starting Pitching:
Lopez. I don't trust going into a season with a guy coming off TJ and counting on them to just be themselves from the jump. I'd give Lopez about as good a chance as anyone based on the things we know about him from the outside, but he'll be 31 next year and the body does what it does. I love him, and would actually like to see them try to turn this TJ surgery into a cheapish extension for another couple years with him. Taj clearly has an incredible ceiling, but he was available last year for a reason. Consistency. I am happy to have him but not sold on his consistency yet. But do feel better about it now than at the start of the year. Ober is doing a heck of a job smoke and mirroring his way through things right now. Guys who rely on that tend to fall off cliffs in an instant. Prielipp, Rojas, Abel are all very exciting pieces. I watched Abel throw a pen in spring and I have no idea how he doesn't dominate every time out. Ball explodes out of his hand. I actually really like the rotation with or without Ryan. But expect there to be some ups and downs with the young guys.

Bullpen:
So unpredictable. Sands was a "trusted" late inning guy going into 2025 because of 2024, and couldn't hold that. Can Gomez, who has been around the block a time or 2, and Morris, who is very new to the role? I hope so, but I don't trust relievers until they've done it for 2 or 3 years. Just such a variable position. Will definitely feel better going into next year than this year, but I never trust a pen.

Lineup:
I don't trust rookies to come up and be consistently good right away. That is a large part of my view on things. If 2 or 3 of Jenkins, Culpepper, Emma, Mendez, Gabby, etc. come up and explode next year the team is going to likely be better than this year whether they have Ryan and Jeffers or not. I don't trust Larnach, Lee, Clemens, Kreidler, etc. types. Clemens has definitely made me eat crow this year, and it's probably me being more stubborn than I should be, but I just don't trust him to sustain. Hope he keeps making me look foolish. But the offense as a whole has produced significantly better with RISP than their normal stat lines. That isn't sustainable. And I think we've seen a lot of that since the break. Outside of 2 games, this team has really struggled to score. If the youth come up and pull a Wallner, Lewis, Julien from a few years ago, those other guys dipping won't matter. But I don't like predicting great, sustained, consistent success from rookies from the jump. It's why I wanted, and still want, them to all get a lot of experience this year to be able to be more consistent next year.

To sum it all up, I think the keys to next year being successful are the young guys, and if they all do well, it doesn't matter if we have Ryan and Jeffers or not. If they all fail, it doesn't matter if we have Ryan and Jeffers or not. The level the new guys will have to perform at for them to be a 90+ win team are higher than I expect, so I'd prefer to use it as a transition year (which I wanted this year to be more of) and add more possible pieces to the puzzle for 2028 and beyond to help their chances of building a sustainable winner. All that is also why I don't mind if they get A+ type top prospects for Ryan and Jeffers. I want sustainable and the guys already in the org are already the key to opening the window in the first place. Adding to the next wave is important, too.

I probably come across harsher than I mean about 2027. .500ish feels like a reasonable goal for next year. 90 wins is more optimistic than I can get to. And it feels like the difference between our thoughts are probably minor and mostly about the level of faith we each have in certain outcomes.

27 minutes ago, IndianaTwin said:

Thanks. Makes sense throughout. Because I'm optimistic enough about some of the pieces for 2027, Ryan seems like an essential enough piece in the whole that I don't like the thought of opening that hole. With Lopez coming back from injury and the youth of Bradley, I don't want to just add one (or even two) to the Prielipp/Abel/Rojas group in a trade of Ryan -- I'd like to know going in (as much as one ever can know) that I've 30-32 starts covered with Ryan. 

 

I tend to view TJ guys similarly and posted something similar to this on Lopez. Someone pointed out that he had "only" the internal brace procedure rather than the full TJS ligament reconstruction, which apparently does shorten the recovery time somewhat. I've not heard anything about recovery and whether he's on track, early or behind. Probably too early to tell.

Ditto on extension. I made a comment elsewhere that in my mind, simply adding a year to his contract at a similar salary feels like a no-brainer for both sides. No long-term commitment for the Twins, a second year to prove he's definitely back for Lopez as heads to free agency as a 32 YO, hopefully with a shot at getting another four years or so from someone. I also like that it would take his leaving off the same calendar as Ryan's.   

No problem whatsoever on that stance. I have no problem with people wanting to keep Ryan or Jeffers. I just disagree. And disagreeing and debating is what brings me back to TD.

8 hours ago, amjgt said:

Currently the White Sox have a 1st round bye. So I guess technically we’re only 3.5 games back of a 1st round bye. We only need to jump the Gaurdians and White Sox to pull that off. 

That is absolutely a fair point.

8 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

You don't get better if your best player(s) are playing for other teams.  You also seldom win deals in which the best player in the deal ends up playing for a different team.  This can be a little less true in baseball than other sports but still, more often than not it's true.  Sure there will be the occasional Jeff Bagwell / Larry Anderson trade.  Or the Doyle Alexander  / John Smoltz deal.  But, on the other hand, anyone remember the return the Twins got for Rod Carew?  

I don't disagree one bit with this stance. The team trading the veteran often "loses" the trade. But that isn't the whole equation. The players have free will. Their team control comes to an end, and they get to choose where they want to play. And that can leave you without your best player(s) and, at most, a comp pick in their place.

That is not me saying the Twins should always trade a vet before they hit free agency. It isn't me saying they've given true effort to extend every player before they hit free agency. But I'd bet they've offered pretty close to all of their best players an extension at some point before they hit free agency. And when the team is below .500 for all but 1 day after they were 12-12 and it's the end of July, it's probably worth thinking about moving expiring contracts if you can get a nice return. When the team is doing well, you should ride it out, add some pieces at the deadline, and see what you can do. This season blurs the line more than usual because of the state of the American League. But the overall point stands. Ryan Jeffers is likely leaving whether the Twins trade him or not. Simply stating that the Twins are better with him doesn't cover the entire equation.

6 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

I'd rather lose Jeffers for nothing than get to the playoffs and have Jeffers put a dagger in our heart while wearing a Yankees, Red Sox or Rays uni.

And that's a totally fair opinion to have. If I thought Jeffers being on their team vs our team would be the tipping point in a series, I may share it. But I don't. Especially with Buxton leaving the game last night with that hip that's clearly hurting his abilities and Ryan looking like he's already swan diving into his second half collapse. But I do understand your thought process and don't have anything against it. It's just not my feelings on the situation.

12 minutes ago, dxpavelka said:

I can't go with "we'd survive losing Jeffers, 'look how we've done in his absence' on the one hand and 'Buxton's injury situation is going to be the beginning of the end'' on the other hand.  We are 54-54 with 54 left and in contention BECAUSE our offense is the sum of ALL of it's pieces.  How many teams could survive trading away one of their 3-5 hitters at the deadline and remain in contention?  

They're "in contention" because the rest of the league is struggling. They've been at, not above, .500 for 2 days since they were 12-12. That's an 84 game stretch. I'm glad people are excited about this team. I'm glad they're slightly outperforming expectations. But struggling to beat, and score against, 2 completely awful teams doesn't excite me. They've been more enjoyable to watch than last year's team, but .500 simply doesn't excite me. 

And I'd argue you can't with you "sum of ALL of it's pieces" on one hand and "can't lose any of their hitters" on the other. They're returning to the mean with RISP since the break. I hope they get back to putting up crazy numbers in those situations, but I'm not going to bet on it.

25 minutes ago, Linus said:

It’s going to be really interesting to watch this unfold. There are signs of regression already but it will be neat to see an abstract concept play out in real life. Royce bailed them out last night so who knows. 

I'll continue to watch. I'll continue to cheer for them. And I'll cross my fingers that they don't make any decision before 5 PM Central on August 3, 2026 that may jeopardize their chances in future seasons. Buxton's availability over the next 5 games, and Ryan's performance tonight are the first 2 super fascinating things for me.