Week in Review: The Dream Is Fading

The Weekly Nutshell:
The Twins need to get on a run. The past week was the latest instance of their inability to do so. It's a recurring cycle: one impressive breakout game is followed by one or two non-competitive duds to damper any momentum. The Twins have had just one winning streak of more than two games since the All-Star break, and are 1-4 following a win here in the month of August. They've lost five straight one-run games, two of them walk-offs, and have fallen to five games below .500 after getting swept at home by the Phillies.

The Twins are doing enough to hang around in an undifferentiated AL field, but they're not doing enough to inspire confidence that they can rise above the pack with six weeks remaining. Can their rotation and lineup awaken before the clock strikes midnight?

Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 8/10 through Sun, 8/16
***
Record Last Week: 2-4 (Overall: 60-65)
Run Differential Last Week: -13 (Overall: -48)
Standing: 4th Place in AL Central (6.0 GB); 1.5 games out of WC

Latest Game Results

Game 120 | MIN 9, BAL 5: Kremer Dominates His Former Team as Bats Break Out

• Kremer: 7 IP, 1 ER, 1 H, 1 BB, 7 K

Game 121 | BAL 5, MIN 2: Twins Strand 10 Runners, Ober Gives Up Three Bombs

• Ober: 6 IP, 5 ER, 8 H, 1 BB, 4 K, 3 HR

Game 122 | MIN 7, BAL 5: Offense Keeps Punching Back in Series-Clinching Win

• Bell: 3-5, RBI

Game 123 | PHI 7, MIN 1: Dire Showing From Offense in Dyersville, Bradley Stumbles

• Lewis, Clemens, Lee: 0-12, 6 K

Game 124 | PHI 9, MIN 1: Prielipp Unravels in Fifth as Offense No-Shows Once Again

• Prielipp: 5 IP, 8 ER, 8 H, 4 BB, 6 K

Game 125 | PHI 7. MIN 5: Phillies Erase Five-Run Lead to Clinch Devastating Sweep

• Morris: 1 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 0 K

NEWS & NOTES

Byron Buxton's return from the injured list could not have been much more cinematically compelling. Buxton came walking out of the cornfields in Dyersville, IA, to participate in the Field of Dreams Game on Thursday night — his first game action since July 28th following his second hip-related IL stint of the season. This time, like last, he skipped a rehab and jumped right back onto the active roster.

Buxton served as 27th man for Thursday's game (a specialized rule for this event), but on Saturday the Twins designated third catcher Alex Jackson for assignment to formally make room. The front office delayed this inevitability as long as they could, fearing they'll lose the out-of-options Jackson on waivers, but no longer could hold off. We'll see if he gets claimed or makes it through within the coming days.

Right-handed pitcher Taylor Rashi, himself DFA'ed a week earlier, was claimed off waivers by the Athletics. He never made an appearance in a Twins uniform, posting a 4.76 ERA in 15 appearances for the Saints. On the flip side, Minnesota added back some pitching depth by signing veteran righty Germán Márquez to a minor-league deal. He was a solid pitcher for Colorado back in the day, an All-Star in 2021, but the 31-year-old has faded in recent years. I would expect we'll see him up in the majors before the year is through, even if just as a bullpen filler arm for September.

HIGHLIGHTS

Dean Kremer was impressive in his first start as a Twin, tossing five innings of one-run ball in Kansas City on August 5th. But his second start and Target Field debut last Monday was nothing short of brilliant. Going against the team that had traded 10 days earlier, Kremer completely stymied the Orioles over seven innings of three-hit ball. He allowed only one run, and he didn't even really allow it — Gunnar Henderson scored on a double-steal for the lone tally. 

Kremer was cruising again on Sunday in his third start as a Twin, holding the Phillies scoreless through five innings, before hitting a wall in the sixth and letting four across. Despite the rocky ending, he has certainly reversed course after switching teams, allowing six runs through 17 ⅓ innings as a Twin (3.12 ERA) after allowing 16 earned runs in 14 innings in his final three starts with Baltimore. I'm hesitant to read into that too much, given the sample size and how streaky baseball players can be, but it's a great first impression, and there's reason to believe the Twins have had some influence on his turnaround.

The bullpen started and ended the week on hiccups, courtesy of Travis Adams, Taylor Rogers and Andrew Morris. (And the defense, naturally.) In between they were mostly lockdown, allowing four runs in 16 innings across four contests. But only in one of those games — Wednesday's 7-5 win over Baltimore — were their efforts particularly consequential. It's a good reminder that a good bullpen doesn't do much for you when you can't build leads, which is the paradox of Minnesota's deadline upgrades. 

On the offensive side, Luke Keaschall is leading the way as he builds on a resurgent second half. He went 6-for-17 with a homer, two doubles and four walks. He's inching up in the batting order, now usually slotting sixth or seventh after spending much of the season near the bottom, and is making a strong case to be hitting higher yet. Keaschall entered play Sunday slashing .308/.423/.474 since the All-Star break, good for a .395 wOBA that led all Twins by 35 points and ranked 18th among all MLB hitters.

Some other notable performances at the plate: Ryan Jeffers went 6-for-16 with two doubles and three RBIs. Royce Lewis was 7-for-22 with three doubles and three RBIs. Brooks Lee went 8-for-24 with a pair of doubles and a grand slam. Josh Bell came through with a big three-run homer on Monday as part of a seven-hit week. And at last, Alan Roden broke out of his funk with a three-hit game on Wednesday that included a pair of doubles.

With the exception of Roden, that is basically the same select group of hitters contributing lately on offense while far too many key bats remain dormant.

LOWLIGHTS

It was not terribly surprising to see Bailey Ober get lit up for five earned runs on Tuesday against the Orioles, who teed off for a home run in each of the first three innings. What's surprising is that this doesn't happen more often. Ober has struggled to ramp his fastball into even the upper-80s of late, but through pure execution and guile he had managed to post a respectable 4.10 ERA with only two home runs allowed in his first five starts off the injured list. That execution was not there in his latest start, with Ober hanging several pitches that were absolutely clobbered, including a moonshot off the bat of former Twins prospect Christian Encarnacion-Strand.

Ober was one of several culprits on a staff that looked downright terrible, surrendering 38 runs (all earned) on 59 hits and 22 walks across the six games. The Joe Ryan-less starting stable shows signs of falling apart as we move into the stretch run. 

Taj Bradley got knocked around in the Field of Dreams Game for five earned runs in four innings, his shortest outing since May. Connor Prielipp melted down in the fifth inning on Saturday, turning a 1-0 deficit into an insurmountable 8-0 by giving up three singles, three walks and a back-breaking three-run homer. It was somewhat bizarre to see him left out there flapping in the wind by manager Derek Shelton, given the stakes of the game and the mounting workload concerns for Prielipp. Shelton's slow hook for Kremer the following day also raised some eyebrows.

Meanwhile, with the exception of a few standouts, the all-or-nothing Twins lineup continues to hold the team back. They had strong showings on Monday, Wednesday and Sunday, totaling 21 runs across those three contests, but were held to two or fewer in the the other three games, giving the team no real chance at a victory. Even on Sunday, when they jumped on Andrew Painter for five runs on two early swings, the Twins were not particularly effective at putting runners on and pushing them across, shutting down after the third inning.

In their four losses, Minnesota's offense went 3-for-34 with runners in scoring position, stranding 36 runners on base. The penchant for clutchness that buoyed this unit in the first half of the season has largely vanished, and along with it, the team's ability to produce runs on any kind of consistent basis. The Twins entered play Sunday with the fifth-fewest runs scored in the majors since the break, after scoring the sixth-most prior.

It's nice to have Buxton back but he doesn't really seem to be "back" in any meaningful sense. He is very obviously limited by rust, lingering injury effects, or some combination of both. Buxton went 1-for-12 including a three-strikeout game on Sunday, and hasn't driven in a run since July 4th. 

Trevor Larnach, who was one of the team's best hitters in the first half alongside Buxton, has also gone silent, though the steady stream of opposing lefty starters is limiting his opportunities somewhat. He tallied four singles and a walk in 19 plate appearances. Kody Clemens hit a solo homer on Sunday, but went 2-for-14 otherwise and is batting .149 in August. He has the lowest on-base percentage of any MLB hitter over the past two months. Ryan Kreidler is finding himself in the lineup far too often for a guy with a .438 OPS since the start of July.

Neither the starting rotation nor starting lineup is warranting much confidence at all. The defense, while somewhat improved, remains prone to multiple headshake-inducing displays every game. And the bullpen showed on Sunday it's far from infallible. Tough to win when there is no concrete strength you can hang your hat on.

TRENDING STORYLINE

It feels like this season is slipping away away. The Twins aren't playing blatantly horrible baseball — they've been winning games here and there, avoiding prolonged losing streaks to stay within range of .500 — but they're not playing well enough to make up any ground, and the clock is ticking down as we enter the latter half of August. 

They've slid to six games out in the division, their biggest gap since early June, with Detroit emerging as the prime threat to Chicago in the Central. But the Twins are still technically very much alive in the crowded Wild Card mix, one of five teams that entered play on Sunday within a game of the final spot. 

Yes, they are "in it." At some point, though, you've got to stop looking at what's happening around you and start to look inward. 

Currently Minnesota is on a 78-win pace. That's not gonna do it. In order to win 83 games, which is the bare minimum for legitimacy in my opinion, they would need to 23-14 the rest of the way. That's a 100-win full-season pace. Not impossible, especially with a relatively soft remaining schedule, but the Twins have shown no real capability to play at that level over any sustained period of time, and lately they've simply looked like a bad team.

If they're going to make the push required, they're going to need to put it all on the line. With the trade deadline in the rearview, there aren't a whole lot of levers the front office can still pull, but two options stick out in Triple-A.

One is Kendry Rojas. He's one of the most electric arms in the organization and there's seemingly little reason to have him stashed at Triple-A while the season hangs on the brink. The left-hander has been lights-out since returning to the Saints, with a 0.82 ERA and 11-to-2 K/BB ratio in 11 innings. He started twice against the Iowa Cubs this past week (Tuesday and Saturday) and allowed just one run on a solo homer. 

Rojas is being somewhat stretched out to start, although the Twins don't seem inclined to push him much past the 50-pitch range. That's fine, they can find a role for him in that capacity. He's far from a lock to come up and dominate — we've seen how the control can come and go — but the Twins staff could desperately use some juice with Ryan sidelined, Prielipp wearing down and Zebby Matthews looking thoroughly mediocre.

On the hitting side, you have Walker Jenkins. He's a consensus top-20 prospect in baseball, and by nearly every account, he's showing readiness to take the next step. His recent stats help make the case; Jenkins has an OPS over .900 since coming off the injured list in late June, and his past week was another impressive one: 7-for-17 with a home run, a double, three walks and two steals.

You can't simply expect that an untested rookie is going to come up and be a heroic world-beater — Kaelen Culpepper's slowish start is a good prompt to temper expectations — but Jenkins has the tools and makeup to hit the ground running. He represents one of the few clear advantages the Twins have compared to other contenders running alongside them in the postseason race. Very few teams have a prospect with this kind of upside and potential impact sitting in Triple-A, ready to go. 

There's open room on the 40-man roster with the Jackson DFA. (Kyler Fedko, out for the season with a knee injury, can also easily be shifted to the 60-day IL.) So that's not an issue. Finding room for Jenkins in the lineup regularly isn't necessarily quite as straightforward with Buxton back in the mix, but it's also not rocket science. 

Use Buxton at DH frequently. Strongly deprioritize Roden. Shift Keaschall back to second base on occasion. Do what it takes to get one of most dynamic talents in your organization on the field with everything on the line. The more the Twins wait, the more unserious their aspirations for postseason contention come to look.

LOOKING AHEAD

The Twins have faced three National League contenders since the All-Star break. They've lost all three of those series, dropping two of three against Cubs and Brewers before getting swept by the Phillies. With two more matchups against playoff-minded NL clubs ahead, can Minnesota finally get over the hump and put together a winning week? They desperately need it to set themselves up for the season-defining stretch that follows: three games against the last-place Athletics followed by 15 straight against the three other teams in the AL Central race: Chicago (6), Detroit (6), Cleveland (3).

MONDAY, AUGUST 17: BRAVES @ TWINS — LHP Martin Perez v. RHP Bailey Ober
TUESDAY, AUGUST 18: BRAVES @ TWINS —RHP Tyler Mahle v. RHP Zebby Matthews
WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 19: BRAVES @ TWINS — LHP Chris Sale v. RHP Taj Bradley
FRIDAY, AUGUST 21: TWINS @ PADRES — LHP Connor Prielipp v. RHP Randy Vasquez
SATURDAY, AUGUST 22: TWINS @ PADRES — RHP Dean Kremer v. RHP Casey Mize
SUNDAY, AUGUST 23: TWINS @ PADRES — RHP Bailey Ober v. RHP Walker Buehler

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