Week in Review: Running Out the Clock

Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 9/9 through Sun, 9/15
***
Record Last Week: 3-3 (Overall: 79-70)
Run Differential Last Week: -4 (Overall: +34)
AL Standing: 3rd Place in AL Central (6.5 GB)

Game 144 | LAA 6, MIN 2: Festa Falls Behind Early, Bats Can't Find Spark
Game 145 | MIN 10, LAA 5: Offense Awakens as Dugout Sausage Returns
Game 146 | MIN 6, LAA 4: Bullpen Takes Over, Holds Lead to Secure Win
Game 147 | CIN 8, MIN 4: Grand Slam From Cincy Breaks Game Open
Game 148 | CIN 11, MIN 1: Wheels Come Off in Deflating Blowout Loss
Game 149 | MIN 9, CIN 2: Twins Come Alive, Avert Being Swept by Reds

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NEWS & NOTES

With time running out on the season, and minor-league rehab assignments essentially out the window, the Twins activated three players directly from the injured list over the past week, throwing them into the fire as the team's season turns desperate. 

First up was Manuel Margot, who rejoined the roster on Wednesday after recovering from a minor groin injury, with Michael Helman going back to the minors. On Thursday, the Twins surprisingly activated Byron Buxton, swapping out Austin Martin to make room, and on Saturday they got back All-Star shortstop Carlos Correa, who bumped DaShawn Keirsey Jr. from the roster.

Generally, the returns of Correa and Buxton would be viewed as huge news, and to an extent they are. But enthusiasm is tempered by the reality that these players are not fully healthy and are going to be limited, which has immediately become clear. Rocco Baldelli has been open about it, and his handling of these players already has been indicative.

Buxton and Correa both started on Saturday, but were pulled in the fifth inning once it became a blowout, and neither played on Sunday. Buxton did make it through one full game, on Friday, and he hit a home run. We'll see what their availability is like over the next week with the Twins traveling and playing seven critical games in seven days.

HIGHLIGHTS

There have been some flashes of life from a lineup that's mostly struggled to remain above water here in September. Kyle Farmer is doing what he can, with a sudden late-season burst that has seen him launch five home runs in his past 26 games after hitting zero in the first 68. That includes a pair of bombs over the past week, during which Farmer also doubled twice and struck out only two times in 16 plate appearances.

A few other players chipped in offensive highlights, including another majestic blast from Matt Wallner, who has become the featured piece in Baldelli's lineups, batting second on Friday and Saturday and then making his first career start in the leadoff spot on Sunday. Carlos Santana went 8-for-18 with two homers and six RBIs in another excellent week for the veteran. Trevor Larnach was an on-base machine with five walks and five hits in 18 plate appearances, crossing the plate seven times.

In a generally rough week for the pitchers, Minnesota's two best arms shined when they had opportunities. Pablo López struck out 10 and walked one over six innings in Tuesday's win, allowing four unearned runs and lowering his ERA to 3.88 on the season – including 1.93 since the All-Star break. He's delivered nine quality starts in 10 second-half turns.

Griffin Jax pitched only once all week, but it was a special moment. On September 11th, the same day his siblings piloted flyover jets and threw out the first pitch during pregame ceremonies, the Air Force captain showcased his rep as one of the best relievers in all of baseball, tossing two shutout innings and bridging a late lead to closer Jhoan Durán. It was Jax's first time completing two full frames since summer of 2022, as he lowered his ERA to 1.95. 

While the same can't be said about many of their teammates, López and Jax look primed and ready for a potential postseason run. Both will be called on heavily in the pivotal coming week to help get the team there.

LOWLIGHTS

Last week continued a trend of sudden and calamitous meltdowns from the pitching staff, which has shown a remarkable penchant for losing games within the span of a single inning. We saw it on Friday, when Jorge Alcalá relieved Bailey Ober and gave up a grand slam in a six-run seventh inning, and then again on Saturday, when Simeon Woods Richardson and Louie Varland combined to cough up nine runs in the fourth. All this against a Reds team with a 91 OPS+ that ranks 24th in the majors.

The brutal outings from Alcalá and Varland are immensely concerning given how much the Twins are counting on those two specifically to add a dimension of quality depth to their bullpen beyond the top three. Since the All-Star break, Alcalá has a 6.75 ERA with eight homers allowed in 20 innings. (Although, to his credit, he did close out the week strong with two shutout frames to seal Sunday's win.) Varland now has an 8.57 ERA and 6.05 FIP with 11 homers allowed in 42 innings for the Twins this year. 

These aren't just unreliable options, they're bordering on unusable. Baldelli needs to be seriously weighing how much he trusts these two in key spots versus, say, journeyman Scott Blewett, who has actually looked pretty solid in a low-stakes role.

While imploding pitchers have done plenty to lose games for the Twins, the offense has done little to help in its own right. Theoretically, getting Buxton and Correa back for the final push – joining a lineup that already features the likes of Royce Lewis, José Miranda and Brooks Lee – should be an ideal scenario that has everyone excited and licking their chops for the playoffs. But as discussed, Buxton and Correa will be limited, if they can stay on the field, and the young core they are augmenting has been different shades of terrible for quite a while now.

Lewis did come through with a big two-run double (inches short of a grand slam) in Wednesday's win, and added two singles in Sunday's game. But he still is batting just .217 in September and has homered only once (barely) in the past month. Miranda went 1-for-12 with a single and no walks. He hasn't homered since July 5th and is slashing .230/.261/.326 in 41 games since coming off the injured list. Miranda's power has once again evaporated completely, casting renewed doubt on his future as a building block for this lineup. 

Lee enjoyed a nice game on Sunday, driving in five with two hits including a three-run triple that snuck down the first base line. But in his other five games he was 2-for-16, grounding into two double plays, and his OPS as a big-leaguer sits at .604 through 39 MLB games. Hopefully Sunday's game proves to be a spark of sorts, but for the most part Lee has looked pretty overmatched at the plate. 

Put it all together and you've got the recipe for a very low-performing offense that too often gives the team little chance of winning. Aside from a couple isolated outbursts like Tuesday and Sunday, this group just continually fails to get going and erupt. They've scored two runs or fewer in 11 of their past 22 games, and – not shockingly – they've gone 1-10 in those games. Minnesota has scored more than six runs only twice in this entire span. 

Over their past 25 games, dating back to August 19th, the Twins are 9-16. Among all major-league teams, only the Angels (7-18) and White Sox (5-20) have been worse. It takes a lot of contributing factors to play that badly, and plenty of culprits have had a hand in this developing collapse. 

The question now is whether they can stem the tide and change this dreadful course. 

TRENDING STORYLINE

It's all on the line this coming week. Can the Twins survive this crucial road trip through Cleveland and Boston? Minnesota hasn't won a series on the road since they were in Texas a month ago. The good news, I suppose, is that the Guardians have cooled off in the second half compared to the first, and the Red Sox – despite being on the fringe of postseason contention – have been about as bad as the Twins lately. 

There are two weeks and 13 games remaining on the schedule. The Twins are effectively trying to run out the clock and make it to the finish line with their postseason position still intact. The math remains in their favor but the Tigers are making a hard charge with six wins in their past eight games, including an impressive series win against Baltimore over the weekend. Seattle has the same record as Detroit 2 ½ back of the Twins, and Boston has a chance to make a last gasp at Fenway next weekend. Holding tiebreakers over both the Tigers and Mariners, Minnesota is effectively at least three games clear of all these teams.

With López, Jax, and some semblance of their offensive core in place, the Twins will have a shot if they can reach October. They just need to hang on and get there. It's gonna be a stressful ride from here on out.

LOOKING AHEAD

López is lined up to make starts in both of these keys series, which is great news for the Twins. Zebby Matthews is also scheduled to go twice, so we'll see if the rookie – owner of a 7.11 ERA through six MLB starts – can dig deep and come through under some extraordinary pressure.

MONDAY, SEPT 16: TWINS @ GUARDIANS – RHP Pablo Lopez v. LHP Matthew Boyd
TUESDAY, SEPT 17: TWINS @ GUARDIANS – RHP Zebby Matthews v. RHP Gavin Williams
WEDNESDAY, SEPT 18: TWINS @ GUARDIANS – RHP Bailey Ober v. RHP Tanner Bibee
THURSDAY, SEPT 19: TWINS @ GUARDIANS – RHP Simeon Woods Richardson v. LHP Joey Cantillo
FRIDAY, SEPT 20: TWINS @ RED SOX – RHP David Festa v. RHP Brayan Bello
SATURDAY, SEPT 21: TWINS @ RED SOX – RHP Pablo Lopez v. RHP Kutter Crawford
SUNDAY, SEPT 22: TWINS @ RED SOX – RHP Zebby Matthews v. RHP Nick Pivetta