Twins Notebook 9/22: Homer Bailey Returns

I was not excited by Homer when we signed him, I am not excited by Homer now.  If the Detroit Tigers are going to be the judge on his value as a starter we are living in a crazy world.  (Oh yes - we are).

Pretty sure the Twins can take competition into consideration when judging Bailey's performance tonight.

Although worth noting the Tigers overall offensive performance this year has been indistinguishable from that of the Cubs. (And better than that of Cleveland and KC.)

The choice is evaluating him in a real MLB game vs Detroit (and/or Cincinnati), or in a simulated game in St. Paul.

(And I'm guessing the ship has sailed on Bailey starting in the postseason, barring an unexpected emergency -- but he still needs to pitch to be evaluated for potential long relief duty.)

Pitching Homer Bailey has less to do with expectations for him by the Twins and everything to do with allowing the Twins to stack their rotation in a way that lines up Maeda/Berrios/Pineda or Hill for the first playoff series.

The innings eating component is notable, with Odorizzi out and Dobnak optioned, although we could pitch Maeda/Hill/Pineda/Berrios the next 4 games, just like we did for the last turn through the rotation, and Maeda/Pineda/Berrios would still be in line start games 1-3 of the playoffs.

Inserting Bailey tonight doesn't hurt, but all it does it give Maeda an extra day of rest now and 5 days rest before playoffs game 1, as opposed to "normal" rest now (4 days) and 6 days rest before playoffs game 1.

The more important start to ensure the playoff rotation will be Sunday vs the Reds, and I suspect we could see Bailey again then too, and/or Odorizzi and Dobnak.

but it's more likely they can win their way above either the A's or the White Sox--and maybe both.

I'm pretty sure even if the Twins have a better record than Oakland, they (Oakland) would still be the #3 seed due to them winning the division.

TouchEmAllGuy is correct -- passing the A's doesn't really mean anything by itself.

If we also pass the White Sox and win our division, passing Oakland too will have us face the #7 seed instead of #6. I think it may also gain us "home field" -- meaning, bat last in game 1 -- if we met Oakland in a later round, in the bubble? At least, that's how I presume they will determine "home team" in the bubble.

Y'all are acting like Homer Bailey is waiver wire fodder.

He was a league average SP for a whole season in 2019, for a team in a pennant race after the trade deadline, including 2 strong starts vs NYY.

With no spring training this year, he held the Cardinals to 2 runs in 5 IP.

Even with his most recent absence, I doubt he is that much less likely to beat the Tigers tonight than any other Twins SP.

Assuming Odo wasn’t healthy to go tonight. It really came down to Bailey or Dobnak. And neither one likely makes the post season roster anyways. Seems like a logical place to start Bailey

Odorizzi is ineligible to return until Sunday; Dobnak is ineligible to return until Saturday (unless someone goes on the IL).

If they get to the second round, is he the 5th starter if Odo can't go?

Maybe, but only in an emergency in the second round, I think (like a SP getting sick or injured). They could use their top 4 on normal rest for everything except a potential game 5, which would be winner-take-all -- and I suspect they'd rather just start Maeda on short rest and empty the pen if it comes to that.

The third round might be more likely to require a 5th starter -- if we're not facing elimination in game 5, we could roll out a 5th starter and then have Maeda back on normal rest in game 6.

Not to get ahead of ourselves, of course!

has Baldelli used a starter on short rest in his tenure here?

Granted, the ALDS would be a different situation, but I'd have to see it before I'd believe it.

Dobnak started on short rest a couple weeks ago! (Due to a doubleheader.)

But yeah, in modern MLB, virtually no one uses starters on short rest outside elimination games, so I don't think Rocco's record up to this point means much in this regard.

And I too don't think he'd start someone on short rest if he had a good alternative -- for example, I don't think he'd use Maeda on short rest if one of Berrios, Pineda, or Hill was available on full rest. But right now, there seems be a pretty bright line after our top 4 starters, pending what Odorizzi, Bailey, and/or Dobnak might show before then.