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Pitchers and catchers reported to Fort Myers earlier this week, which is typically a time for fans to get excited about the upcoming season. Teams try to build support throughout the winter by hosting events like Twins Fest and Winter Caravan, where leaders from the team can answer questions from fans and the media. The Twins have tried to spin different storylines this winter and direct the narrative surrounding the team. Unfortunately, those quotes looked like the truth at the time and have morphed into lies, whether intentional or not.
True Lie 1: There will be no blackouts in 2024
Current impact: The Twins are back on Bally Sports North for the 2024 season, which means fans will be limited in how they can consume the team’s games. Cory Provus, the team’s new television announcer, and others in the organization told fans that blackouts were going away. However, those statements were made before Amazon made a deal with Diamond Sports, BSN’s parent company, to save them from bankruptcy. The Twins decided to return to BSN for one more season because of an estimated $30-40 million being paid to the team. Fans hoping for easier access to television broadcasts, especially streaming options, are left empty-handed.
Future impact: The Twins are among a group of teams who will be television free agents next winter. MLB has a few options with these clubs if they package them together as one group of 12-15 clubs. They can offer television and streaming rights to a larger company like Amazon or Apple to broadcast through their platforms. Another option is for MLB to take over the broadcasts for these teams, which is what the Colorado Rockies, San Diego Padres, and Arizona Diamondbacks are doing this year. Overall, there should be more access to Twins games in 2025, but there are no guarantees in a quickly changing television landscape.
True Lie 2: The Twins must cut payroll.
Current impact: Minnesota’s front office was bizarrely forthcoming at the start of the offseason that the team’s payroll would be dropping. Fans were told it was necessary, because the team expected to lose significant revenue due to the lack of a television contract. Last year, the Twins earned $54 million in television revenue, so the removal of that revenue stream figured to lower the payroll from $159 million to around $124 million. Minnesota received an influx of revenue with their one-year renewal with Diamond Sports, but there are no signs the team is about to embark on a spending spree. It seems likely for the team to add one more right-handed outfield bat, which should keep the payroll under $130 million for 2024.
Future impact: If asked about the payroll, the Twins would likely point to the young players on the roster and say there would be a natural decline in payroll. Many of those players have yet to become eligible for arbitration, which means they are making close to the league-minimum salary. Starting next year, Pablo López sees his contract rise from $8.25 million to $21.75 million. There will also be a slew of players eligible for arbitration for the first time, including Royce Lewis, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, and Jhoan Durán. The Twins roster will get expensive in a hurry, and those issues will only be further magnified if ownership continues to limit spending.
True Lie 3: The front office is attempting to improve the team.
Current impact: Every contending team enters the offseason hoping to make improvements to their roster. This proposition was difficult for the Twins because of the organization’s self-imposed payroll limits. The team also lost Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda, two starters who recently finished runner-up for the Cy Young Award. Derek Falvey indicated at the Winter Meetings that the Twins would attempt to trade some of their veteran players, with Jorge Polanco being the lone casualty at this point. Minnesota turned him into a fifth starter, a late-inning reliever, and two prospects. Strictly on value, the Twins did well in this trade, but it’s easy to argue that the current roster is worse than last year's.
Future impact: The front office will always make moves where the Twins acquire more value. The Polanco trade is just one example of this type of swap. On the eve of the 2022 season, the Twins traded Taylor Rogers, the team’s closer, and Brent Rooker to the Padres for Chris Paddack and Emilio Pagán. It was a move that made sense from a value perspective, but the timing of the trade seemed suboptimal for clubhouse morale. Unless the payroll situation drastically changes, the front office must continue making value trades, even if it hurts the current roster. Expensive veterans must be shed, especially when a large chunk of the team’s payroll is tied to Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton, and López. Dropping payroll by $30 million will make any team worse, unless the team’s young core takes massive strides forward in 2024.
On the surface, the Twins weren't trying to lie to fans, but given the way various situations above have unfolded in recent months, that's how it turned out. Some fans were already wary about the team’s historical spending record, and those worries have been multiplied this winter. Minnesota is still the odds-on favorite to win the AL Central, but it’s tough to be optimistic about how the offseason played out.
Which true lie is the most disheartening? How does each area impact the team in the long term? Leave a comment and start the discussion.
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