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In 2018, the Minnesota Twins selected college slugger Trevor Larnach out of Oregon State in the first round of the MLB Draft, 20th overall. One year earlier, with the first overall pick, they had taken prep infielder Royce Lewis. These first two top picks made under Derek Falvey's purview quickly become centerpieces of the Twins system. Heading into 2020, Twins Daily had Lewis and Larnach ranked as the organization's first and third-best prospects, sandwiching the last first-rounder drafted under Terry Ryan, Alex Kirilloff.
Kirilloff's playing career sadly came to an end when he retired earlier this offseason, but Lewis and Larnach — who've both dealt with their own injury woes — are just getting started. They've already proven integral to the Twins lineup, despite being held back somewhat from reaching their true potential. Here's why I'm looking at these two players, specifically, as pivotal in rejuvenating a Twins offense that tanked down the stretch and likely won't get much in the way of outside support this winter.
The 2-3 Punch
Rocco Baldelli's belief in Larnach and Lewis as hitters is reflected most simply by this fact: they led the team this year in lineup appearances batting second and third, respectively. Larnach edged Carlos Correa (45) with 49 starts as No. 2 hitter. Meanwhile, Lewis's 37 starts as No. 3 hitter were more than twice as many as the second-highest (Larnach at 18). This despite the fact that neither Larnach nor Lewis played in more than 112 games.
During the season, I wondered why Baldelli was giving such preferential treatment to Larnach in the batting order, consistently writing him into the money spots even as the outfielder profiled and produced more like a No. 6 hitter. My conclusion was that, in addition liking his stylistic fit and the sequencing between righty bats, Baldelli had high confidence in Larnach's talent and his ability to unlock another level based on underlying indicators.
"When planning for the future, it's not about what someone's done; it's about what they're going to do," I observed. "Just because other Twins players have outhit Larnach up to this point, that doesn't mean they will going forward."
Sure enough, Rocco was dead right. From the date of that article (August 12th) to the end of the season, Larnach slashed .291/.376/.464, lifting his OPS from .740 to .771. During this span Larnach's .364 wOBA led all Twins hitters, sans Correa who played 11 games. Given the way Baldelli's faith was validated, it seems likely we'll continue to see Larnach as a regular anchoring the two hole against right-handers.
The logic behind regularly batting Lewis third, meanwhile, was much more straightforward. Over the first 100 or so games of his career, between lengthy absences, he was pretty much the best hitter in the world. Then, as we all know, came the season-ending mega-slump. But the good has thus far handily outweighed the bad for Lewis, owner of a 126 OPS+, 33 home runs and 104 RBIs through about one full season's worth of MLB action (605 PA).
True Breakouts on the Way?
In some ways, the 2024 season represented crucial breakthroughs for both Larnach and Lewis. Each set new career highs for plate appearances and games played. Larnach erased a track record of constant injuries and mediocre production at the plate. Lewis had his least effective season, but he saw more action than the previous two seasons combined. Even though he struggled mightily down the stretch, it's important that Lewis was able to shake off multiple significant muscle strains, staying on the field and in the lineup for his most prolonged stretch in years.
Baseball is a game that is very much about learning from failure. Lewis hasn't had much of that when he's been healthy enough to play, but the final six weeks of this past season provided a humbling experience for such a naturally gifted athlete. "One of the things that really came to light," Twins strength and conditioning director Ian Kadish told The Athletic, "was the necessity for the preparation and understanding even though he’s ‘healthy,’ these are things that he needs to stay on top of.”
For his excellent offseason feature on Lewis, Dan Hayes visited the 25-year-old in his hometown of Frisco, TX. Lewis opened up about the challenges he faced both physically and mentally, the lessons he learned, and the way it's all fueling his resolve. "When you figure things out at the highest level, that’s what makes you better," he told Hayes. "So I think it’s motivating. I’m really excited for this year because of the ending there."
Larnach, on other hand, doesn't need to learn from adversity. He's already done plenty of that during an early MLB career that featured plenty of stops and starts. Now the 27-year-old simply needs to build on what worked in 2024. His improvement was driven primarily by a drastic reduction in strikeout rate, which sustained throughout the year. Combining that with a well above-average walk rate and stellar contact metrics, you've got a thoroughly effective offensive threat who potentially has more untapped upside than he's shown.
Larnach and Lewis Are Locked In
Both players have some question marks that need to be answered defensively. Larnach was limited all season by a turf toe issue that mostly relegated him to DH. He's shown some solid fielding chops in the past — can he reassert himself as a quality left fielder? As for Lewis, it's up in the air whether he'll be playing third or second, much less how dependable he'll be at either.
But on the offensive end, these two look pretty locked in to resume their roles as core fixtures near the top of the lineup. The Twins are still led by accomplished veterans like Correa and Byron Buxton, and they're ushering in a new wave headlined by Brooks Lee, Emmanuel Rodriguez and Luke Keaschall. Lewis and Larnach represent the in-between; the "now" generation. If they can level up in their own ways, the Twins offense will be a fearful unit.
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