Three Truths and a Question about Twins Payroll

A back-of-the-napkin tally of the Twins likely roster ends up exactly the range we predicted when the offseason began. You can see the details below. Four months ago we pointed out they had as much as $70M to spend on three starting pitchers, though we didn’t expect a large chunk of that to be spent on a 34-year-old MVP-caliber third basemen. But the total matched expectation.

Ultimately, they Twins spent about $39M of this year’s money on free agent or new starting pitchers:

• $17.8M on a qualifying offer to retain Jake Odorizzi for one year.
  
• $20M for a two-year contract to Michael Pineda (but it appears they only have to pay $7.5M or that this year due to his suspension).
  
• $7M to Homer Bailey on a one-year contract.
  
• $3-6M plus possibly more on Rich Hill depending on how much he pitches after returning from injury.
  
• $1M or so on Kenta Maeda, thanks to the Dodgers picking up all or almost all of his 2020 salary.
  

Truth 2: That’s a starting point, but there are variables that could make swing higher or lower throughout the season.

This is always true, and payroll can be also impacted by acquiring or dumping big salaries at the trade deadline. But the Twins have at least two contracts on the books that could change the total as much as $19M in a year, though one of those swings no longer really matters.

Rich Hill has only $3M guaranteed, but can earn as much as $9M more depending on how many games he starts once he returns from elbow surgery midyear. For the purposes of the back-of-the-napkin number above, we estimated about $6M this year, which would require him to make nine starts.

Kenta Maeda also has only $3M guaranteed. But he could make another $10M from starting games, though a more realistic ceiling is probably $8M. However, in the revised trade, the Dodgers agreed to pay his base $3M salary and up to $7M of the incentives. For the back-of-the-napkin payroll, we estimated he’ll cost the Twins about $1M this year.

Question 1: So can the Twins spend any more?

The Twins literally had a payroll $12M higher a week ago. When the Maeda/Graterol trade was first announced, the Dodgers weren’t providing any of Maeda’s salary, meaning the Twins payroll was on track for about $150M if he started throughout the season. Unless they had some way to dump $10M quickly, that suggests that Derek Falvey and Thad Levine either had budget or approval to go that high.

This front office also has shown a willingness to add players during spring training if they see the right fit, or if injuries pop up during camp. Over the last two years they’ve added a starting pitcher (Lance Lynn), a designated hitter (Logan Morrison) and a super utility player (Marwin Gonzalez). That’s almost $30M of additional payroll added when we thought the team was likely done.

That extra payroll room could come in handy at the trade deadline, too. Being able to add $10M of salary for the last two months means adding $30M worth annual salaries at the deadline. Of course, that often means acquiring payroll for 2021, and that could be a problem.

Truth 3: Things get trickier in 2021.

It’s hard to see eight months in the future, but the Twins will likely face challenges accumulating this much talent on the roster for the 2021 unless they up their payroll considerably or have some prospects step into some big shoes. A peek ahead at next year’s payroll estimates they will enter the offseason with a payroll of about $103M, while needing to replace a number of important players who will be free agents.

Nelson Cruz, Jake Odorizzi, Homer Bailey, Rich Hill, Marwin Gonzalez and Trevor May will all be free agents, as well as several other Twins. That would leave them looking to add two starting pitchers, a designated hitter, and possibly some bench and bullpen help. Even with a modest increase in payroll to the mid-140s, that’s a little tight. Acquiring a high-priced impact player at the trade deadline would create further challenges.

Twins payroll has been a limitation throughout the club’s existence. The Pohlad ownership is the focus of most of the current criticism, but people forget they were viewed as saviors for spending money when they took over ownership from Calvin Griffith. That reality isn’t unique to the Twins; the Red Sox and Cubs are coming under fire this year for limiting their payroll this offseason. Keeping track of where it sits and where it is going provides clues toward the future of the team.

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