Three-Bagger: Mauer's Decline, Morneau's Woes & Dozier's Pop

I just feel gutshot every time I think about Joe Mauer. It's such an unfortunate - and completely unexpected - decline that I still struggle to comprehend it. By all accounts, Mauer should have declined gracefully. Maybe not on the level of Molitor but his excellent bat control and discipline should have made him a productive player well into this 30s.

 

Now I don't know what the Twins can do with him.

Yeah, Morneau turned it around but no two are the same.  I hope Joe can. 

If you look at the 2013 pre-concussion numbers there are signs that a decline was coming.  Listening to Gleeman and looking at his article you would assume that K% went up after the concussion but his K% in 2013 was 17.5%.  It maxed out the next year after the concussion at 18.5% but the majority of growth in K% happened prior to the concussion.

Also, it was repeated frequently in the latest podcast that in 2013 Joe was having a regular Joe year with a .325 AVG and a .400 OBP.  Neither Gleeman nor John mentioned his career high BABIP in 2013 of .383, almost 40 points higher than his career average.  In 2014 his BABIP went down to his career average of .342 which saw a similar reduction in AVG and OBP.  Disregarding the concussion these reductions were predictable because a BABIP of near .400 is unsustainable as Danny Santana has shown.

This won't sit well with most but I think it's time to switch Dozier and Mauer in the lineup. Dozier has 13 hr's with 11 being solo a big waste of his power. Joe leads the league in dp's which is a big waste of runners.

Mauer leads off tell him to forget pulling the ball go back to just getting on base and I think it would be better overall.

Dozier has become the new face of the Twins. Exciting young player. Not sure there is a better overall 2B. I feel so bad for Morneau and his family--and that is all of us Twins fans. I was so hoping he was over his concussion issues, but I am afraid he has to retire so he gets a full life of being a husband and dad.

Mauer is the enigma. Good guy who was so easy to like when he produced, but in the business of baseball what have you done for me lately? And if you aren't doing much lately--to earn even a third of your salary--we have to do what is best for the team. I think that is moving him back to catcher, especially with Suzuki struggling and Pinto showing signs of being another AAAA player. If he gets concussed again, the Twins collect on their insurance for his salary and move in one of our young studs. If he stays healthy and continues with his current numbers, he is still grossly overpaid but not nearly as much as a 1B. I realize this may not happen until he has a spring training as a C, but for the good of the team I feel this is best. If Joe is worried about possible concussions, he has to consider summer fishing with Morneau listening to Twins games on the boat.

I think the most devastating blow was Morneau's concussion.  He was at the top of his game, having a career year in a career filled with greatness.  He never got that back. Mauer's decline seems to be directly related to Morneau's.  When Mauer was at his best, a healthy MVP-class Justin Morneau was batting right behind him.

Eh, you're completely disregarding that Joe's slugging when down a full .105 (!) from 2013 to 2014.

 

His BABIP in 2013 was unsustainable but that wasn't the real reason his productivity nose-dived after the concussion. It was the fact that he stopped hitting for any kind of power. The BABIP was simply regression toward his personal norm. It should have contributed to a slight dip in overall numbers but not the "fall off a cliff" drop we saw in production.

 

If Joe slugs .450 instead of .370 last season (a relatively conservative number based on his 2010-2013 numbers), his OPS is still over .800 for the season and we barely even notice his slight overall decline.

I would agree that his BABIP had almost no impact on his slugging which went down dramatically from 2013 (ISO .153) to 2014 (ISO .095).  A good case could be made there for the concussion impacting that.  I would also include offseason training issues due to concussion and increase in defensive shifts in that reduction but would have no problem conceding that the power reduction was a result of the concussion.

Just to make the math work, if Joe had a SLG% of .450 like you suggested that would mean his ISO for last year would have been .170.  As a comparison he has only ever reached .170 in 1 year and that is his outlier year of 2009 so I think that is a little aggressive.  A better comp would have been to say if Joe had his career ISO of .139 last year he would have had a SLG% of .410-415 and an OPS of .770.

If this is Joe Mauer.....then yes, he will be blocking better players. I'd argue that Sano s/b at 1B right now, with Plouffe at 3B.....

 

He's one of the worst hitting regular 1B in baseball......you owe it to the other players and the fans to put the best players on the field. I'd say if this is how he plays all year, you have to consider benching him next year. Or, you can just keep putting him out there, even though he is bad at his job, and not be trying to be the best team you can.

Just curious, at what point would you pull him for Sano and what would you do with Joe?  $23M bench player? Platoon? AAA to hopefully turn it around?  DFA him?

Fair enough. I was just winging the math on that one. But even at .770, Joe is a productive first baseman. In 2014, that would have been good for something around a 115-ish OPS+. Definitely not where you want a $23m player to be performance-wise but not embarrassing, either.

No problem, my biggest beef with the whole conversation is that the concussion gets blamed for everything.  I agree that Joe would have been in the .770 range in 2014 without the concussion which means to me that the majority of his OPS reduction (880 -> 770) from 2013 to 2014 was caused by pre-concussion factors and the remaining minority was concussion related (770 -> 730).

Joe actually had a lower OPS at this point last year, but still ended the season at a .737 OPS.  He had a higher strike out rate too, lower BB's though.  I know .737 is not great, but much better than where he is at today.

.267/.340/.338/.678 in 2014.   10.5% BB  and 18.5% K.   Ended the year .737.

.261/.324/.357./.681 in 2015    8.6% BB, 15.2% K

I have to wonder if multiple factors are at play here.

1. The league has figured out Mauer and adjusted accordingly.

2. Mauer has not made or is unable to adjust his approach to hitting.

3. The concussion suffered has played a factor in the precipitous decline in Mauer's ability.

For what it's worth.

I have no sympathy for a hitter getting beat by shifts. Either beat the shift or put it over the fence, two things Mauer is unable to do.

If it's the concussion, I have sympathy for him, but he needs to get much better real fast or he'll be replaced. Too bad, that's how it's been done forever.

Brain injuries are a b****.

If this was even in the plans you would assume they would shift Sano and at least give him some defensive innings in AA at 1B.  I really see no way they continue to play him at 3B and then bring him with no reps at 1B.

Agreed.  It is not in the plans.  I think Joe needs to be in the sub .700 OPS range for another 12-18 months before the Twins even take 25% of his reps.