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In addition to David Festa and Zebby Matthews, who each debuted in 2024, the Twins added Marco Raya to their 40-man roster ahead of the Rule 5 Draft and have more prospects, such as Andrew Morris and Cory Lewis, close to ready for the majors. A little further away, you have C.J. Culpepper and Connor Prielipp, who are both prospects on the rise. While prospect development (especially for pitchers) is never linear, the Twins have plenty of “bullets in the chamber” if they were to explore the trade market of one of their established starters.
Cody Christie recently looked at the idea of trading Pablo López and, of course, Chris Paddack has been the subject of trade conversation among Twins Daily writers, as well. The challenging part about moving either of those would be their contracts: López is locked up long-term and Paddack’s $7.5 million may be more than some teams are willing to pay without getting an additional asset. However, Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober are similarly solid starters with more cost-effective team control left. They figure to have substantial trade value. It would be wild for the Twins to trade both of these arms but, if they had to pick one, which one makes a better trade candidate? Let’s dive in.
Before looking at the outlooks of Ryan and Ober, we have to establish what the goal of dealing either of the two would be. Would the Twins look to keep the better pitcher, or would they look to trade whichever guy would net more in return? Given the team is within a competitive window, I would err on the side of keeping whomever they deem the better of the two pitchers. From a controllability perspective, both players are in their first year of arbitration and Cot’s Baseball Contracts projects them to earn somewhere in the ballpark of $3.5 million in 2025.
Joe Ryan
Ryan is coming off a productive season shortened by a right shoulder injury. Across 135 innings, he carried a 3.60 ERA, a 3.44 FIP and an impressive 23.0% K-BB rate. He features one of the best fastballs in the gam; the pitch has accrued a run value of 47 since he permanently joined the rotation in 2022. As was the trend ahead of the 2024 season, he added a splitter to his arsenal and it quickly became his second-most used and most effective pitch. His sweeper and slider grade out as below-average pitches.
I really like Ryan’s long-term outlook, because he is more of a crafty pitcher than one who relies on power. I think that reduces the risk of significant injury and increases the likelihood that his production is sustainable. My biggest concern with Ryan is his aforementioned pitch arsenal featuring just two plus pitches, and I think he could really benefit from developing his slider more. Without developing a third out pitch, I think his value now is the highest it will be as a solid number two on a competitive team.
Bailey Ober
Overall, Ober had a very solid 2024 season. He would have been a dark-horse Cy Young Award candidate, if we could just remove the five worst starts of his season. Those clunkers accounted for more than 40% of his earned runs, bloating his ERA to 3.98. Regardless, he posted a solid 20.8% K-BB rate and a 93rd-percentile chase rate, thanks to three plus offerings.
Similar to Ryan, Ober is a crafty pitcher who relies on his command of the strike zone, as opposed to overpowering hitters. I think that bodes well for his long-term outlook. Unlike Ryan, Ober doesn’t have the “stuff” to overcome days where he is struggling to locate, which leads to the blow-ups we saw in 2024. From a Stuff+ perspective, his changeup is the only plus pitch in his arsenal, which gives him little room for error; hitters feast when a pitch gets too much of the plate. I’d be interested to see him deploy his curveball more. That pitch has generated positive results in a very, very small sample (1.1% usage in 2024, 6.7% in 2023, 11.9& in 2022) and grades out decently via Stuff+. While I think he has proven that those implosions are few and far between, I worry that they will continue if his changeup is the only pitch with an above-average Stuff+. Again, similar to Ryan, I think Ober’s value is at its peak, given his production and team control, and will always be viewed as a solid number three on a competitive team.
So Who Should We Trade?
Well, I’m not going to put my foot in the ground and say Minnesota should trade one of these two. While their value may be at its ceiling, I think a top of the rotation of López, Ryan, and Ober bodes very well, even in October. But, if the Twins were to explore the trade market of one of these two, I’d like them to shop Ober. I think the two carry roughly the same market value, but Ryan is the better of the two. The one thing that might sway my opinion is if we had insight on their signability, as the two are close enough in value and productivity that if one of them indicated they’d be willing to ink a team-friendly extension, I could be convinced to keep that arm over the other.
Do you think we should trade one of Joe Ryan or Bailey Ober given the depth of our minor league system? Join the conversation in the comments!
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