Revisiting Realmuto as a Twins Trade Target

But my money is that the Mets pitchers will be available this July. They've made some moves but that team looks like they are primed for disappointment. Perhaps that's based on little other than them hiring an agent to be their GM, but my spidey sense tells me it's a team fated for dysfunction.

That agent to GM was smart enough to sign Wilson Ramos to a great value deal. Something our conventionally promoted and hired FO failed to do..... and their spidey sense brought us Morrison, Duke, Lynn, Belisle, Kinley, Wilson, and Odorizzi and Reed (for their worst seasons)..... and gave away Pressly. My spidey sense tells me that Parker and Pineda and Cron will similarly disappoint. I do have hopes for Schoop. That's something.

I disagree. I don't think a Kirilloff-led package would get you either Syndergaard or Kluber right now. Those teams are trying to win (and in Kluber's case, his team is in direct competition with the Twins).

 

I think if you change this from an abstract thought to reality, you will find there are few if any pitchers on that level who would be available for a Kirilloff-led package.

 

(Edit to add: I know Kirilloff raked in 2018 and is ranked well, but he is also a corner player who has yet to play in AA. I think he is a clear step below up-the-middle top prospects like Lewis, which is probably the minimum prospect quality that would be required to pry Syndergaard or Kluber right now.)

I can't speak for Tom but I don't believe he or I mentioned Kirilloff specifically. I know that I didn't. 

My point is that I'm under the impression that "someone like" Kluber (Tom Mentioned Syndergaard) is going to be a similar price to the price tag to acquire Realmuto in a trade. I don't know for sure but if I'm close to right... I'd rather spend that "Limited Resource" on a Kluber or Syndergaard.

Not even sure if those guys are actually available for acquisition. I just won't pay the position scarcity price for elite catching.  

Do you think Realmuto will fetch significantly more than Kirilloff? I've thought that in the past, but after Kirilloff's 2018, and the fact that they are the Marlins, I am not so sure. I think they could be a match.

I tend not to play in those waters because I can only base the market on what actually happens and I purposely try not form impressions of players on the farm that haven't faced major league competition yet. 

Based on what is happening... The value of a prospect has never been higher in my opinion. The Ivy league GM's across baseball (That wasn't a slam... they all seem to be from the Ivy league now). Seem to have placed enormous value on years of control and the free agents are falling by the wayside. You simply can't get Torres for a Chapman rental anymore. JP Crawford is now somehow worth Segura, Nicasio and Pazos. Yeah I know... Santana was thrown into the deal. 

The Dodgers, The Yankees, The Giants we're teams who would normally cough up prospects for experienced talent and they are not doing it anymore it seems. 

So if I had to guess... Nobody wants to give up their top prospects and are trying to get Realmuto for a the next level prospect or prospects and the Marlins of course want the top prospects so we all have to wait for someone to blink. This game of chicken has been going on for awhile and demands would probably be lowered to a package of 2nd level prospects... so... I think Kirilloff and prospect #12 in our system gets it done. 

Just guessing of course but I'm still not making the deal.    

If those ace pitchers aren't available, then it's kind of beside the point, isn't it?

The point of my response was, if you are really considering pulling the trigger on Realmuto (at whatever price), but you also think "man, I'd rather have an ace for the same price" -- you might still be better off trading for Realmuto, rather than waiting for an ace that may never come.

Of course, it doesn't sound like you are really considering trading for Realmuto at this price. Which is defensible too, but it doesn't really have anything to do with aces.

It's insert name here. I've heard that everybody has a price so who knows. 

You are more informed than I when it comes to prospects. I tip my hat to you so... What do you think the Twins would have to pay to acquire Realmuto? Realistically.  

Once you come up with that... Offer that same package to every team in the league and what do you feel would shake loose from each club. 

If the price tag is Kiriloff and Graterol, I think I'd prefer to look elsewhere.    I feel like that kind of package could land a pretty damn good pitcher and I'm more interested in that anyway.

That is probably true in the abstract, but I have a hard time seeing what pitcher is going to be available over the next 12 months. The top-20 projected pitchers for 2019 all play for the Red Sox, Mets, Nationals, Astros, Indians, Yankees, Phillies, Rays, Rockies, Pirates, Dodgers, Diamondbacks. Of that group, the only team that is remotely rebuilding right now is Diamondbacks, but I'm not sure that Greinke (age and contract) or Robby Ray (health, limited team control) are pitchers that would merit that kind of trade package. The Rockies might blow things up if this year goes poorly, but they are a weird organization that is hard to get a read on. Otherwise, every other team is making moves that indicate that they are expecting to compete in 2020.

 

The other thing is that a determination made today about whether the team is competitive is kind of a self-fulfilling prophecy. Right now, Fangraphs is projecting the Twins to be a 83-win team in 2019, currently 7th in the AL. Guessing at the win distribution around that mean, it implies that there is something like a 50% chance that the Twins either hold or sell at the 2019 deadline, and maybe just a 20% chance that they are a strong buyers. It would kind of defeat the point if a pitcher like Thor did become available in July but the Twins aren't buying. And if they sell/hold and end up <=83 wins for the season, won't that be used to argue that they aren't true contenders and should sit out the 2020 offseason as well? But add 3-4 WAR from Realmuto (who is absolutely available today), and that vaults the Twins ahead of the Rays and Angels, cuts 40% of the Indian's advantage, and the Twins are most likely buyers at the deadline. And from that inflection point, it isn't hard to see them make a run at 90 wins. That may not be enough to win the division, but it certainly provides enough evidence that the team is a contender and can be built upon going into the 2020 season.

People ignore the self fulfilling prophecy all the time. Don't add great players, then say, see, they weren't ready.... All we are asking for is using their assets on two established players. Heck, start with one. Not on a one year deal.

Nelson Cruz is under control for two years. That's a start.

I forgot about the option. Yes, it's better than nothing. I'm not in love that it is a DH, but it is what it is.

FWIW, while Fangraphs projects Realmuto at 3.6 WAR, they also project the Twins current catching group at 2.5 WAR. So adding Realmuto may only net us 1.1 WAR by those projections.

Although there are certainly more factors that can be considered beyond just the projections. And indeed, the difference in actual catcher WAR between the Marlins and Twins was 2.9 for 2018.

Not quite right......because Garver will play about the same amount with Realmuto as Castro, so the delta is between Castro and Realmuto.....so the delta is more like 2.5 WAR.

But, the real point is........they can afford to add a great player if they want to.