Reviewing the Tyler Mahle Trade

17 hours ago, Danchat said:

Let’s not forget the Reds also netted Steven Hajjar in the trade… it seems to me that they’ll need to extend Mahle if they want to get enough value out of this trade. If they lose Mahle over the winter, I think the trade is going to age poorly.

They've already sent him to the Guardians for Will Benson (OF),  Benson was the surprise of spring training and made the big league roster, but he's currently 0-12 with 9 K's so that might have been premature.

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16 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Why in the world would the Twins take back the trade? Steer and Encarnacion Strand don't have a place here with the Twins, and Mahle (when healthy) is a #2 starter. He certainly looked it last night. 

When the Twins have a playoff rotation that includes Lopez, Mahle and Ryan, would you still take back the trade of a couple prospects we don't have space for?

If the Twins are in the playoffs and Steer and Strand end up only being minor bit-players....then yes.  If The Twins don't make the playoffs and Steer and/or Strand end up being all-stars...then no.  We don't base our jobs on making those decisions....but the front office DOES!  If they make more poor decisions than good ones....they lose their jobs......

18 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Great trade. Doesn't mean it will work out, but great trade. This team needed another good pitcher at the break. It was him, Castillo (who would have cost Lewis and Lee and two more good to very good guys) or Montas. That was it. Only those three were dealt.

LOL...if it doesn't "work out," it is a terrible trade....by definition!

17 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Is the Baddoo part of this sarcasm? He was unplayable last year in the majors (65 OPS+), and didn't make the Tigers opening day roster this year. A Tigers team that everyone thinks is going to be terrible, and is looking for any infusion of talent they can find decided he wasn't good enough to be on the team.

As for this trade, the chances of Steer and Strand being studs is incredibly small. Could they both be major leaguers? Of course. Could they both be major league regulars? Totally possible. But the chances they're both studs is miniscule. This is just the cost of doing business in baseball. You pay possible future value for current value. Especially when that possible future value isn't even your top possible future value.

Steer wasn't taking the 3B job in Minneapolis over Miranda. Or the 2B job over Polanco, Julien, or Lee/Lewis. Strand doesn't belong anywhere near the field defensively at this point, and wasn't taking the DH job in Minneapolis over Buxton, Kirilloff, Larnach, et al. For Strand to be a stud he has to be Nelson Cruz. I'll take the under on that bet.

Hajjar has the possibility to be the one who hurts losing depending how things play out with him in Cleveland and the arms the Twins still have. But the 2 bats they traded likely wouldn't even make the 26-man roster on any of the next 3 opening days. Trading guys who weren't going to be amongst your 13 opening day bats for a guy who can be an above average pitcher is a good trade 100% of the time.

Baddoo was not sarcasm.  If the Twins made him available by Rule-5 draft and he ends up being a stud for the Tigers....that is a MAJOR blunder for this front office.  So far...so good....Baddoo has not been very good.......

19 hours ago, miracleb said:

It is more than a business decision.  If Steer and Encarcion are studs an Mahle is gone next year,.....this is a disaster for our front office and they are another step to being let go.   I still look back at Akil Baddoo being exposed to the Rule-5 draft.  So far so good on that move!

What happens if Lewis and Lee are even better than Steer and Encarcion?  If we kept Steer and Encarcion then we would have Miranda, Correa, Polanco in the infield this year, with Lewis, Lee, Julien, Steer, Encarcion at minimum all looking to take Miranda or Polanco's spots.  That is too many prospects looking to take really just 1 spot in the infield, as we hope Miranda holds down his.  Maybe he would have moved to 1st freeing up 2 spots but still you have 5 guys for 2 spots?  Who would you rather have?  You cannot just judge how a player does after we get rid of him, but how his counter parts or other moves that were done.  If both Lewis and Lee play infield spots and do better than the two we traded, should we care that we only got a year out of Mahle? Sure, if we kept them and they got more trade value, maybe we could have got more down the road, but also possible they regress and we would have got much less, if anything. 

A few folks here judging a decision only by the outcome. That's a pretty incomplete way to look at any decision but especially a trade like this with so many unknown outcomes. 

If the Twins traded Byron Buxton, Jose Miranda, Carlos Correa and Royce Lewis for the Reds 25th ranked prospect that's a bad trade right? Of course. But what if the 25th player winds up being the second coming of Mike Trout? Is it suddenly a good trade? No, it was still a dumb trade and the Twins got incredibly lucky. 

If the Twins made the same trade above but instead of the 25th prospect being Mike Trout he's Junior Ortiz. BUT Buxton, Miranda, Correa and Lewis all get hurt for the Reds. Is it suddenly a win/win trade? Both teams essentially netted zero but this is still a dumb trade for the Twins. 

There are so many variables out of the control of teams and players I'm not sure what this proves. It seems best to judge a trade at the time of the trade and at the time of the trade most of us liked Mahle and most of us didn't peg Steer/CES as any significant part of the Twins future. I'd do the trade again today, honestly. 

5 hours ago, twinstalker said:

Holy cow, so far it looks like one of the Twins' worst trades ever.  They've gotten exactly nothing so far for two guys who look like productive major leaguers, one now, one probably later in the year.  Nothing is going to win this trade for the Twins, you just hope Mahle can provide some help they wouldn't otherwise have toward making the playoffs.  So far...he's provided nothing extra, and there's an extreme injury worry.

The Twins replaced Steer with Donovan Solano at very little cost. Getting an above average starting pitcher for below average  position players (especially when they are blocked) is a good trade.

55 minutes ago, Trov said:

What happens if Lewis and Lee are even better than Steer and Encarcion?  If we kept Steer and Encarcion then we would have Miranda, Correa, Polanco in the infield this year, with Lewis, Lee, Julien, Steer, Encarcion at minimum all looking to take Miranda or Polanco's spots.  That is too many prospects looking to take really just 1 spot in the infield, as we hope Miranda holds down his.  Maybe he would have moved to 1st freeing up 2 spots but still you have 5 guys for 2 spots?  Who would you rather have?  You cannot just judge how a player does after we get rid of him, but how his counter parts or other moves that were done.  If both Lewis and Lee play infield spots and do better than the two we traded, should we care that we only got a year out of Mahle? Sure, if we kept them and they got more trade value, maybe we could have got more down the road, but also possible they regress and we would have got much less, if anything. 

This.  It seems people seem to forget that there is something about a 40 man roster…….  You can’t just keep everyone because they might be good in a few years.

7 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

That's not how decisions work. If you drive drink and don't die, it wasn't a good decision you should repeat. 

Not sure why this is controversial.  If you make bad trades (ie....trades that don't work out,) then that reflects poorly on the decision maker.  If you make a trade and the guy you got in the trade gets in an auto accident and can't pitch anymore.....that can't be blamed on the decision maker (unless of course there was a history of drag racing.)  The history of major league baseball agrees with me.....why fight it?

4 minutes ago, WLFINN said:

This.  It seems people seem to forget that there is something about a 40 man roster…….  You can’t just keep everyone because they might be good in a few years.

This also factors into the front offices decisions!

1 hour ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Both of them have a LONG way to go to get there. A LONG way. Heck, they'd have a LONG WAY to go to make our roster right now, right? If they get a chance elsewhere and even become mlb regulars, good for them. Wish them the best.

Also hoping for a Mahle extension at some point. 

You make this trade every single day of the week when you were in the position Twins were at that point.

Not saying you wouldn't!  But, if they knew Steer would be a 5 time all-star......they wouldn't have included him in the trade.  In that case, they made a bad evaluation on Steer.  More bad evaluations than good evaluations....get you fired.  Not just me...that is all of major league baseball history!!!

It's kind of amazing how many people sung the praises of Steer and Strand while they were in our system.  Now that they are gone they all of a sudden weren't that good and not likely to make the Twins.  I liked the trad then and so far like it now.  Just like the Twins season as a whole there is a few ifs in it.  IF Mahle performs well and IF the Twins resign him.  I think both will happen.  If it doesn't then it looks pretty bad.  Remember three of our starters are playing on the last year of their contract.  Gray, Maeda, and Mahle could all be gone before next year. Let's hope for the best.  Go Twins.

It’s too early to judge the trade, but  Mahle does have the potential to be a very good starter, if not a number one. The good news is they traded position players where they have depth, which means they didn’t trade Lewis or Lee, which would have been disastrous! I was holding my breath on that!

This was the one trade that I felt was an overpay but it happens.  As to this trade it really comes down to Steer vs Miranda.  I think they will provide fairly equal value,  but either one of the 2 players was going to be our long term 3rd baseman,  and both may ultimately get bumped by Lee.    CES is purely a big bat with some injury history.  Most likely a DH bat but again not a whole lot of spots for him.  I feel this is good for the Twins if they can extend Mahle,  and of the pitchers I think he is the one most likely.   If not we will get a draft pick, or comp pick.  I think we lose this trade unless an extension occurs.  However,  its similar to how we got Joe Ryan.  The issue was Mahle was never going to be that final piece.  

What would you have given up in a trade for Mahle? Remember your not the only one bidding for his services. Sacrifices have to be made when your the buyer in a sellers market. Or would you prefer if the FO followed Terry Ryan's keep them all cause they might be the teams future, and then watch them age out of the system without ever living up to their potential, You have to give something to get something.

4 hours ago, miracleb said:

If the Twins are in the playoffs and Steer and Strand end up only being minor bit-players....then yes.  If The Twins don't make the playoffs and Steer and/or Strand end up being all-stars...then no.  We don't base our jobs on making those decisions....but the front office DOES!  If they make more poor decisions than good ones....they lose their jobs......

Neither of them profile as all-stars though. And what we had in front of them were athletes that play premium defensive positions and are top of the line athletes. They weren't playing here and will be most likely bit players or major league average type guys. Fine players, but are you playing them over guys like Lewis, Julien, Lee, Miranda, Martin etc? Because that is who are/were blocking them. 

I am fine if the Twins trade these types of prospects every year for mid rotation pitching or stud relievers. Keep your up the middle athletes and use the rest to bring back whatever it is your team or organization is missing.

23 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Or if the guy you trade for gets hurt?

Exactly!!

12 hours ago, twinstalker said:

Holy cow, so far it looks like one of the Twins' worst trades ever.  They've gotten exactly nothing so far for two guys who look like productive major leaguers, one now, one probably later in the year.  Nothing is going to win this trade for the Twins, you just hope Mahle can provide some help they wouldn't otherwise have toward making the playoffs.  So far...he's provided nothing extra, and there's an extreme injury worry.

IMO it's way too early to evaluate this trade, but if you're going to at least base your evaluation on facts...

Encarnacion-Strand is currently a minor leaguer with 208 PA's at AA & currently on the IL. Presently, his defense will limit him to 1B/DH

Steer is in MLB & so far in his young career his OPS+ is 82.

Hajjar is currently a minor league pitcher.

How do any of these players currently look like productive MLB players?  Mahle is clearly a productive MLB starting pitcher.

Now of course those three could develop into something, but as of right now how can the Twins complain about this trade.

Additionally, in our system we had multiple players ahead of both Strand-Encarnacion & Steer so the odds of them contributing at the MLB level here in the next couple of years were slim at best.