Report From The Fort: Joe Mauer Will Give Up Hitting When You Pry The Bat From His Cold Dead Hand

It really is not about what Mauer wants.  Nice story, glad he is back from his concussion, wish him well, but - the Twins FO has to assess the team not the player. Do we have the next 1B ready to step in?  If not extend Mauer for 2 years, if we do, extend one year???  The FO does not have the old Twins angst about moving players. And this has to extend to Joe - the business of baseball has to prevail, just as players are learning in FA this year.  I hope we see an amazing Joe this year, I will enjoy and appreciate it, and I will set that aside from watching the FO work.  Based on their non-talks with Dozier who is our most productive hitter, I think we can begin to understand how the Twins approach is changing - not necessarily better, but different.

Agree, but I think people are focusing on the offensive side of the ball regarding both Mauer and Dozier - perhaps because those are easier to quantify.  However, as I look at how the team is being assembled, defense seems to be the focus and from that perspective, Mauer is either the best or one of the top defensive first basemen in the league while Dozier is decent (I know, I know...he won a gold glove) but not irreplaceable from a defensive aspect.  One could argue that Polanco at second with one of our up and coming SS taking his place may be an upgrade on defense. Replacing Mauer at 1B would be a defensive downgrade with anyone in our system and possibly anyone in the majors.

Anyway, what I'm saying is that, right or wrong, the FO seems to be focused on defense first.

You should probably spend a little more time reading up on concussions. What has been reported on Mauer is pretty common. Symptoms come and go, they vary in both intensity and duration, sometimes deceptively (often the person doesn’t even realize they’re there because the human brain is amazing at adjusting for ailments, diminishing their impact but not removing the underlying problem). Placing a timeline and set list of symptoms on a concussion is folly, as "concussion" can mean a bunch of different things and is more of a catch-all term than an actual injury (more on that in a bit).

And depending on the severity and frequency, the effects often fade after a few years (or maybe the brain so completely adjusts to compensate for the effects that it essentially "normalizes" a continuing problem, making it invisible to the person).

Nevermind that even using the term “concussion” is so generic that it’s almost useless. Do we say “player x broke a bone”? Of course not, we specify which bone and the severity. Yet there are SO MANY forms of concussions, many with different effects and severity. Getting hit on the side of your head is not the same as the back of the head is not the same as the top of the head. Hell, even the type of impact on the same spot on the head often leads to different effects. Those injuries impact different parts of the brain and therefore have different effects, yet we lump them all together as the same. And that doesn’t bring up severity of the impact, which adds another variable to the situation.

We too often treat the discussion on concussions at the level of a third grade book report, which is ridiculous because it’s a friggin’ BRAIN INJURY.

Yes, but even youuuuu don't know how serious it was or not because none two concussions are alike and not everyone experiences the same issues afterwords (i know that for a fact).  Now general assumptions can be made based on the severity of the impact but there is still the unknown factor from individual to individual that makes it unpredictable. 

At first glance Mauer's concussion would seem to be less severe given the ball struck his catchers mask which is bad enough but far less severe in comparison than Morneau's in which he took a knee to the head.  I even have my own experience at 12 years old wrecking a dirt bike at high speed on a loose gravel road.  I lost a WHOLE DAY and still have no memories of it other than what my mother told me afterwards. 

There will eventually come a point when Mauer & the Twins part ways.   

As iconic jet-set bartender Brian Flanagan said so profoundly in the cinematic classic known as 'Cocktail':

"Everything ends badly.  Otherwise it wouldn't end..." 

I think accusing Mauer of lying is just a bridge too far. It's odious of conspiracy theory, not deduction.

Here are 3 things I take as facts:

- Joe Mauer revealed in March of 2016 that he had been experiencing vision issues during the previous season.

- The Twins were surprised at this fact and were not aware of Joe's vision issues.

- The Twins medical staff asked Joe dozens, if not hundreds of times, a set of specific concussion related questions between August 2013 and March 2016.  

I would be interested in another theory as to how these can all be true that doesn't involve Joe Mauer lying about his symptoms to the Twins medical staff.  

Why do you only include AVG and OBP, and not SLG?

Where does he rank when we look at offense as a whole, especially compared to others at his position?

I'm not claiming he's toast, not by any means. If he can repeat 2017, he has value. But let's not try to skew his value by cherry picking only the numbers he excels at.

Where does he rank when we look at offense as a whole, especially compared to others at his position?

 

29 1Bs had 500 PA or more.  He ranked 19th in wRC+.  

So, a bit below average for sure if just talking offense, but I'll go ahead and take into account his defense too.  He was right around average for 1Bs and I imagine he'll be even better this year. 

29 1Bs had 500 PA or more. He ranked 19th in wRC+.

 

So, a bit below average for sure if just talking offense, but I'll go ahead and take into account his defense too. He was right around average for 1Bs and I imagine he'll be even better this year.

Sounds about right to me, though I don't know if he'll be better this year. He turns 35 next month.

Sounds about right to me, though I don't know if he'll be better this year. He turns 35 next month.

Well, he managed to be much better at 34, so....

Mauer will hit better this year than last year. He will spank with authority to the gaps, and by season's end will be flirting with .320.

That's my prediction, pulled officially from my...speculation.

Here are 3 things I take as facts:

 

- Joe Mauer revealed in March of 2016 that he had been experiencing vision issues during the previous season.

- The Twins were surprised at this fact and were not aware of Joe's vision issues.

- The Twins medical staff asked Joe dozens, if not hundreds of times, a set of specific concussion related questions between August 2013 and March 2016.  

 

I would be interested in another theory as to how these can all be true that doesn't involve Joe Mauer lying about his symptoms to the Twins medical staff.  

The only other explanation is that he really didn't have the ongoing symptoms from the concussion and used it as an excuse for subpar play.

Well, he managed to be much better at 34, so....

I'm not saying he won't be, just that I don't know.

We know that eventually age catches up to every pro athlete. We can't predict anybody's aging curve, but because we know that eventually decline is inevitable, then every year that goes by after 30 or so, the odds of decline go up.

I don't have any data in front of me, but I'd imagine that by age 35, those odds are starting to get up there. Especially, probably, for a guy who has put more of a toll on his body than most mlb players. (Due to catching. )

I'm not predicting a decline this year, just not comfortable, at his age, predicting improvement.

That would go for most 35 year olds.

First paragraph: Absolutely, and that's the point of my post. I don't even approach the subject of claiming the severity or effects of Mauer's concussion. I won't touch that topic with a ten foot pole because concussions are way out of my depth as a layman.

 

Second paragraph: Maybe I'm misunderstanding this paragraph but immediately after saying all concussions are different, you proceed to say one concussion looked more severe than the other. As I'm sure you understand, how a concussion "looks" doesn't have much impact on its severity or long-term effects. Just a month or so ago I was listening to an interview with a football player (can't remember his name for the life of me) who had several concussions in his career... and the one that took him out of the sport forever is the concussion he received when a teammate tripped over him, barely making contact. But the contact was particularly damaging to his brain because of the specific spot it hit, the angle at which it hit, and the impact's focus on a specific part of his brain.

A direct hit to the head is almost always worse than a glancing blow due to blunt force trauma.  Its physics and the transfer of shock of impact to the brain which leads to brain contusions and other injuries causing many concussions.  I don't claim to be an expert on the subject matter but i do know quite a bit based on my own experiences with it.  The point is they are difficult to predict but there are some known facts out there.

Morneau's concussion was far worse than Mauer's which is why it took him so much longer to come back.  I also think his lingering symptoms (nausea, dizziness, etc.) were much worse than Mauer's vision issues.  About 30-65% of people with TBI have issues with balance, dizziness, visual distortions, etc., depending on the severity of the concussion.  A smaller percentage of that number has permanent issues such as vertigo.

I would hope that Mauer would have communicated these issues to the Twins training staff promptly instead of waiting several years as he claims.  I don't want to get into the Twins medical staff was awful so he tried to go it alone blah blah blah as Deduno Abides states.  That is all pure speculation.

Hitting the gym hard, I'm sure. 

Here are 3 things I take as facts:

 

- Joe Mauer revealed in March of 2016 that he had been experiencing vision issues during the previous season.

- The Twins were surprised at this fact and were not aware of Joe's vision issues.

- The Twins medical staff asked Joe dozens, if not hundreds of times, a set of specific concussion related questions between August 2013 and March 2016.  

 

 

These are things I just cannot get around when hear how deeply Joe was affected by his concussion.  For him to slip through all the protocols implies rampant negligence.  I also do not understand how he can experience issues to the extent where production drops so sharply and no one puts two and two together for three seasons.