Twins Video
No one can deny that 2016 was a disastrous season for the Minnesota Twins. Never before in this franchise's history have things gone so awry. But thankfully, last year is in the past. When the team congregates in Florida they will be doing so with a fresh outlook. Much can change in three months, especially when you're dealing with numerous maturing young players and a completely overhauled baseball operations unit.
Last week, Tom Froemming outlined a realistic, though pessimistic, scenario in which the Twins once against lose 100 games. It could happen. But let's keep in mind that last year's team accomplished an historical feat of ineptitude. Making it happen took multiple major injuries to key players, immense struggles from youngsters, inexplicable personnel decisions and plain old bad luck (Pythagorean W/L tells us they should have won seven more games).
What has been does not dictate what will be. Especially when you view the state of this Twins roster in context.
They've clearly got the makings of an above-average offense. The lineup shined in the latter portion of 2016. As things stand, the only changes are Jason Castro replacing Kurt Suzuki and a designated hitter – probably Byung Ho Park or Kennys Vargas – replacing Trevor Plouffe. I think we can call those swaps a wash, at worst.
Then there's the pitching staff. It was cover-your-eyes ugly last year, but this is where the recency bias sets in. For basically every starter except Ervin Santana, 2016 was a complete catastrophe. Kyle Gibson endured his worst season. Ditto Hector Santiago. Phil Hughes had his shoulder crap out. Things couldn't have gone much worse for Tyler Duffey and Jose Berrios. It was, essentially, a series of worst-case scenarios. And the thing about those kinds of lows is that there's nowhere to go but up.
I'm not saying these guys are all going to turn around and be world-beaters, but several of them will improve. And with new decision-makers place, we can hope to see players put in better positions to succeed. With most of the organization's top pitching prospects approaching Triple-A, if not already there, contingencies will be on hand to prevent someone like Duffey or Hughes from being sent out start after start with no ability to get outs.
After the 2015 season, the Twins themselves fell victim to recency bias. There were underlying signs that their 83-win total was inflated, but still they operated as if they intended to springboard into contention from it. It's hard to blame them, when you consider what a breath of fresh air the competitive baseball was for everyone.
But even amid the horrendous results of 2016, the organization did manage to check several important boxes in their rebuilding process. Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano got more experience, stayed mostly healthy, and probably learned some hard lessons. Max Kepler successfully transitioned to the big leagues. Jose Berrios transitioned not-so-successfully but he got those all-important first licks out of the way. Several prospects took steps forward and another key one entered the mix when Eduardo Nunez was traded for Adalberto Mejia at the deadline.
And most importantly the Twins picked up the No. 1 pick in the draft, which will give them their choice of any amateur player in the nation this June.
If complacency was an issue heading into 2016, it sure won't be this time around. And if poor planning, ill-advised decision-making, or clouded judgment were exacerbating factors, it is fair to be cautiously optimistic that a revamped front office structure will avoid making the same mistakes.
Realistically, Minnesota probably will not compete for a playoff spot. Many teams won't. But the Twins will take a step forward. The question is how big it will be.
Quiet offseason and all (and I don't think they're quite done), I'm excited to find out.
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